Masterbagger wrote: ↑Sun, 17. Feb 19, 22:51
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There are a whole mess of reasons why illegals are coming here and an equal mess of things that could be done to mitigate them. You wanted to stabilize the countries those claiming asylum are from. It is in our best interests in the future not to have more failed States like Venezuela crumbling in our backyard. I'm going to suggest that one of the many reasons illegals are showing up in such numbers is that it is easy. I think any other solution to combat illegal immigration or combination of them is going to be less effective as long as it is easy to get across the border. I'm seeing that places that have been successful in driving down illegal crossings have used border walls as part of that effort.
The problem with a "Wall" is that it's being offered as a solution to a problem that doesn't exist...
I know. I put on a set of football pads, ready for practice as a tackling dummy.
This is gonna be a TLDR. I know, sorry. But, it's not a simple "A wall will fix it" issue. It's just not. That's the sort of solution that home-repair mechanic comes up with when their engine stops working - "If I don't try to start the car, it won't be broke." Be thankful I just got a severe weather alert and am about to be inundated with a snow/ice apockyclipse, or this darn post would be longer. But, it'd also be more organized.... Anyway, here ya go.
Let's look at some stuffs!
PewResearch - Facts about illegal immigration
I know - "Facts." But, they illustrate the problem with the rhetoric that's being spewed out.
Illegal immigration has been declining.
Illegal immigration of Mexican citizens has been declining and makes up about half of the illegal immigrant population.
The number of employed illegal immigrants in the US has been declining.
Most illegal immigrants have been in the US for over ten years and that portion of population of increasing residency years is increasing.
OK, so maybe it's not a "National Emergency" considering it's the same leaky faucet that we've had for decades and it's not getting worse. But, is the Southern Border in need of a ginormous wall in the first place due to some uptick in illegal border crossings there? Uh..
Factcheck: Illegal immigration statistics
We can't know, of course, what we don't know. But, given that many other factors remain the same, like the fact that we apprehend illegal immigrants when we catch them, we can see that the rate of illegal border apprehensions for crossings at the Southern Border has been declining. It also appears that the number of illegal immigrants that are in the country right now are often "overstays" from legally obtained visas. And, for ones in-country, the rate of overstays is making up a majority of the population. IOW - An increasing number of newly declared "illegal immigrants" are from overstays, upwards of 65% of all illegal immigrants.
Increasingly, for illegal border crossings, families are making up a larger percentage of illegal immigrants.
Particularly telling, for this post, look at the last graph. It's a percentage of "return offenders" versus "successful enforcement efforts (forced expulsion)". Basically, its a comparison of recidivism rate versus successful enforcement. See how both rates are beginning to meet in the graph? See how the difference between them is getting progressively smaller?
This is
enforcement at work, not
prevention.
Enforcement.
Note that an increasing number of newly declared illegal immigrants aren't people who jumped a wall, but people who just sat in their apartment watching television while their legally obtained visa expired.
We are both aware that trends in rhetoric, true increases in enforcement, a more political "hard-line" stance, widely publicized, has effects. For instance, loud proclamations about harsh measures taken against illegal immigrants tends to reduce motivation for illegal immigration attempts. That's sort of a "No Duh" conclusion, right? BUT, notice that while the total illegal crossings are down since Trump was elected, it doesn't really coincide with his election. IOW - It's not just him spouting rhetoric and fear of a Trump reprisal, something else operated there. There is, however IMO, a contribution there in the numbers just because illegal immigrants are afraid of what may happen to them when they are apprehended.
So, we see a general downturn. And, regardless of what the numbers are... WHY DO PEOPLE ILLEGALLY IMMIGRATE TO THE UNITED STATES?
For the most part, they're "fleeing to the U.S." They're coming here because here is better than where they were. They're coming here to escape violence and terrible economic conditions or unstable governments. They're coming here because here is better than where they were.
Is a "Wall" going to be a solution, here?
No. Reduced numbers of illegal crossings, an increase in the number of overstays making up a large majority of current illegal immigrants, increased violence and political and economic stability in their own countries and an ever increasing chance of comparable economic opportunities present in the US.. Wait a second, what do we have here?
This is important.
"An increasing chance of comparable economic opportunities in the US..."
"Enforcement."
Do you think that an illegal immigrant would come to the US seeking increased economic opportunity would slog through the desert to get here if they knew the chances of getting a job were slim to none? !!
Do you think someone that overstayed their legally obtained visa would do so if they knew they'd be deported within forty-eight hours or that their current employer would have to fire them the next day? !!
Obviously, a key part of the solution, by the numbers, is going to HAVE to be "enforcement." I don't mean just the apprehension of illegal immigrants, I mean that employers <FRIGGIN GASP!> will have to enforce employment laws! HOLY CLAP! We are also going to have to provide more funding to enforce the terms of legally obtained visas. ZOMGZ ENFRORK THE WORKER PROGLAMS!??
I point these two things out because it shouldn't be a secret that large farms, even the ones owned by huge corporations, employ a lot of physical labor in the form of illegal immigrants. I point this out because the guy at Microsoft that just borked your system may not be some contract-worker in India, but may be an illegal Indian immigrant at Microsft's corporate office who's visa just expired...
If it were you as a potential illegal immigrant and you and your family were suffering, perhaps even looking at the possibility of dying to violence, hunger, poverty-caused disease, etc, would you let a wall stand between you and the survival of your family?
No, you would not. You'd friggin' get over that wall no matter what it took.
And, for those who are going to be rushing that wall, that is exactly what will happen - They will defeat it because failing to do so is unthinkable. They are humans and a human being will claw their way through a pile of bodies in order to survive and will stand in front of a speeding train to save the lives of their children.
That is what Trump's wall is up against. It's up against an increasing number of families looking for asylum and fleeing hardship. It's up against people from South America fleeing political instability and true fear that few Americans could ever understand. It's not going to stop those people. Never. You may think that expending the calories to climb a wall isn't worth it, but you're not one of these illegal immigrants who has lived their life in a world few could imagine and only sees relief and glory on the other side of that wall.
If Trump wanted a "real solution" then I urge you, once again, to look at that last graph on Factcheck, the one that shows the dwindling rates of recidivism vs the rate of successful enforcement. Look at it. It's telling. It tells you how to help solve the problem.
Look at the increasing percentage of overstays that make up the current population of illegal immigrants in the US. These are people who could have done nothing other than just sit and watch TV while their visa expired. That, alone, should tell you where a few billion dollars of extra funding needs to go.
What will a wall stop? A wall will stop someone who doesn't want to expend the energy in order to cross it. Tell me - How many illegal immigrants that slogged through the desert or walked all the way from South America, fleeing terrible conditions, don't have the willpower to muster up the energy to cross a wall that stands between them and Heaven? ZEEEROW. If they're going to slog from South America (Not Mexico), which is where Southern Border crossers are increasingly coming from, do you think a glorified fence is an obstacle? You know what will happen?
Some enterprising Mexican entrepreneur is going to open up a ladder business on the US-Mexican border and become a gallion-peso-naire. (About five bucks...) There ya go, Trump's wall defeated by enterprising Mexican entrepreneurs selling ladders at the border. They'll probably make more money selling ladders, spots in the back of a truck, and boat-rides than is spent on Trump's wall.
Lastly, we both understand, i think, people will continue to immigrate to the US if here is where they want to be. And, the worse it is where they are, the more motivated they'll be to come here. That's not terrible, is it? We have plenty of good American citizens who came here from other countries. But, if we want to lower illegal immigration, we have to make it more difficult for illegal immigrants to obtain employment. We have to also work towards what we've been trying to do for decades - Improve the living conditions and the political and economic stability in South American countries through trade, economic development programs, aid and education. Improving the overall economy and stability of any nation would likely seem to be a great way to reduce immigration from that nation, yes? Reducing the availability of employment for illegal immigrants and enforcing the existing laws on the books would like reduce the number of illegal immigrants and the current population of illegal immigrants in the US, yes?
The Wall is not a solution for any reduction in illegal immigration other than to discourage casual illegal immigration, which is obviously what is not the problem right now even as the problem, itself, is of diminishing concern. The solution is enforcement of current laws, reduction in the employability of illegal immigrants, and foreign policy guided programs designed to induce political stability and more economic opportunities in South American countries.
You're smarter than Trump's rhetoric. You have played or are playing one of the most difficult to master franchises of space-awesome games in the current universe of space-awesome games. You are smarter than Trump. Be that.
PS - I wanted to point something out, but didn't have time. I have to beat the soccer-moms to the friggin' grocery store. So, here it is: A lot of people see "illegal immigrant" whenever they see an American of Mexican/Latin/Spanish ethnic heritage. They just do. For those who are VERY sensitive to this experience, they see illegal immigrants "everywhere." If you are in an area of a high population of Americans of Latin/Spanish/Mexican/dark-tan descent, I challenge you to think about how many conversations you, yourself, may have experienced with other Americans that focus on "all the illegal immigrants in our area" without one reference to what the actual number of illegal immigrants in that area might possibly be. I've had those conversations with people in areas with lots of Spanish-only speaking residents and most of the people they're pointing at are actually Americans, just ones that live in isolated communities or Mexican "ghettos." Their parents or grandparents may have been here illegally, but they're not. Yet, the ever-increasing population of Latin/Spanish-speaking Americans also plays into the rhetoric that Trump is popularizing. IMO, part of the motivation behind that is segments of the population who are seeing more of these people than they are used to seeing, no matter if the one's they are looking at are truly Americans or not. Time for groceries...
