Brexit

[Chips]

Prediction.

Hung Parliament.
LibDems form coalition government with the Conservatives promising to act as a moderating force against the ERG etc but end up just ****ing us all over . . . . . AGAIN.
No deal Brexit in early 2020.

Why do people think it's a no deal brexit? There *is* a deal, parliament rejected it. Or is the deal actually a no deal?

[Bishop149]

Why do people think it's a no deal brexit? There *is* a deal, parliament rejected it. Or is the deal actually a no deal?

Two broadly similar "deals" have be presented, one roundly rejected by Parliament the other rejected but a little less so.
Every public poll I've seen suggests that both were wildly unpopular with the electorate.

There are three realistic outcomes to the up coming GE.
1) A parliament as split as it is now that will never be able to agree a deal and we'll eventually leave without one once the EU gets sick of granting us extensions.
2) A Tory majority / lead coalition, which might seem like a way to Leave with Boris' deal. . . but I doubt this will happen. If they win an effective majority I think the ERG will retrench, they only reason they compromised on this deal was because they thought they might just get it through an obstructive parliament. Once that impediment is removed they'll start pushing for the no deal scenario they really want once again.
3) A Labour majority / lead coalition, this is the wild card, who knows? Corbyn claims he'd negotiate a "better" Brexit deal and that he'd put it to a referendum once done. . . who knows what THAT deal would look like? Who knows how that referendum would go? Who knows if any of that would actually happen?

[Chips]

Why do people think it's a no deal brexit? There *is* a deal, parliament rejected it. Or is the deal actually a no deal?

Two broadly similar "deals" have be presented, one roundly rejected by Parliament the other rejected but a little less so.
Every public poll I've seen suggests that both were wildly unpopular with the electorate.

Erm, I am part of the electorate. No-one I've spoken to has a fkin clue what the deal actually was. Do you know the ins and out's of it? Parliament was given a few hundred page document and about 12 hours to read it, did you read it in that time? Can you honestly say you know what it represented and why it was good or bad?

Did anyone in the UK read it who wasn't an MP - and did they understand it?

I don't think the "electorate" has a bloody clue. So the idea that the "electorate" had enough of a clue to form an opinion is laughable - just like the original referendum.

Also, if people want to avoid a hard brexit that the ERG (by the way, you know how many MP's that consists of? Here's a number, it's 21 - so about 6.5% of the MINIMUM for a majority in parliament - hardly an amount to force jack squittle) they could just... vote for a deal?

This is why politics at present is retarded. There's so much BS it's unbelievable. People are passing comment, they just don't know though. They are pulling thoughts out of the air.
Then again, that does appear what the government has done at some points in time, so ... maybe it's suitable

(I should point out I've no idea if the deal(s) that have been negotiated are good, bad, indifferent or other. I'm not saying they should be accepted, or rejected, or other! Just that I read all sorts of "opinion" in the media which seems to have no more substance behind it than anything else. It's impossible for anyone at this point to know what's going on. We've descended into "NHS is not on the negotiating table", "yes it is", "no it's not", "yes it is", "no we are saying it's not", "we don't believe you" - followed by numbers plucked out the air how much a deal that's not even in existance is going to cost us. 500 million a week. For what? How much do we spend on our own companies/drugs companies. Someone said "all the big drugs companies are the US and they're going to bleed us" to which someone else pointed out 2 of the biggest are UK, another 4 are EU based and so on. It's literally a minefield of disinformation and no information.

So the 'what may happen' with 3 outcomes? Okay. Think that's what the entire population would hypothesise too.


The entire thing is ridiculous.
As for voting lib dem (below) - I probably will do. I know people say "it's a waste vote" - it's only a wasted vote because for the past 30 years people say it's a wasted vote. If people for once voted for the party they want instead of the "the best chance to defeat the one I hate most" then maybe that wasted vote will actually gain ground and make headway. Maybe in the following election it'll come first. Maybe there will be an actual change and contender between the other two, biblically incompetent, parties. I don't care what that outcome means anymore, I actually want to make a personal stand as I'm fed up with the "vote to defeat my most hated" mantra that means we're stuck with the utter garbage parties we have. People have done this for 30 years and guess what... we're cyclical between the two utter garbage parties we have BECAUSE of that. It's NEVER going to change with the same behaviour exhibited thus far. No-one is happy with either and then votes for one or the other because "oh noes they may get in can't have that". FFS. Realise the ones you hate will be in again within 1-2 parliament terms on average, so this dodging bull is not worth it. Make a change for once.

[BugMeister]

- vote Lib-Dem..
- it's the only answer..

[Bishop149]

Erm, I am part of the electorate. No-one I've spoken to has a fkin clue what the deal actually was. Do you know the ins and out's of it? Parliament was given a few hundred page document and about 12 hours to read it, did you read it in that time? Can you honestly say you know what it represented and why it was good or bad?

Did anyone in the UK read it who wasn't an MP - and did they understand it?

I don't think the "electorate" has a bloody clue. So the idea that the "electorate" had enough of a clue to form an opinion is laughable - just like the original referendum.

Well indeed.
I was referring to polls that were likely biased (most polls are) and only polled (at most) 50,000 odd people.
However even despite those flaws, both deals polled spectacularly low. . . . it wasn't even slightly close, the core split is clearly Remain vs Leave (No Deal)

I have not read both deals entire, but I'm pretty sure I know what both would mean, broadly speaking, the key differences between the two and some of the more subtle legal implications around specific issues.
This is perhaps a little arrogant but I'd wager even this admittedly rather partial knowledge is probably in excess what most of the electorate know about them. . . . and I dare say more that a fair proportion of MPs.
But whats the best case here? Even if we had another referendum and every voter was provided with all several 100 pages of the deal on offer and a few months to peruse them do you think we'd have a better informed vote?
Barely, the proportion of the electorate that could even understand the legalese in which it is written would be negligible.

Also, if people want to avoid a hard brexit that the ERG (by the way, you know how many MP's that consists of? Here's a number, it's 21 - so about 6.5% of the MINIMUM for a majority in parliament - hardly an amount to force jack squittle) they could just... vote for a deal?

The ultra Euro-sceptic wing of the Tory party is A LOT more than just 12 MPs. The ERG are just the policy committee that best represents them at this particular moment in time.

(I should point out I've no idea if the deal(s) that have been negotiated are good, bad, indifferent or other. I'm not saying they should be accepted, or rejected, or other! Just that I read all sorts of "opinion" in the media which seems to have no more substance behind it than anything else. It's impossible for anyone at this point to know what's going on. We've descended into "NHS is not on the negotiating table", "yes it is", "no it's not", "yes it is", "no we are saying it's not", "we don't believe you" - followed by numbers plucked out the air how much a deal that's not even in existance is going to cost us. 500 million a week. For what? How much do we spend on our own companies/drugs companies. Someone said "all the big drugs companies are the US and they're going to bleed us" to which someone else pointed out 2 of the biggest are UK, another 4 are EU based and so on. It's literally a minefield of disinformation and no information.

Well yes, is this deal good or not is always going to be a matter of opinion.
I favour remain, I obviously think both deals are terrible. . . . . my bias is clear, but as far as I can tell Leavers aren't enamoured either.
A GE is a terrible way to resolve a single issue, in the couple of days of campaiging so far we've covered
- The NHS
- Taxation of the rich
- Donald Trump
Very little on Brexit beyond party positions that have been established for months.
I want more from the LibDems in particular. . . their core policy of wanting to "Stop Brexit" is clear but they have been rather non-commital / contradictory about HOW they might go about doing that.

I can give you some personal anecdotal information which at least I know to be true.
My work place has been "preparing" for Brexit for quite some time, the key word at the core of everything is "uncertainity".
You can't run a business on "uncertainity", several of our key suppliers in the EU have chosen to simply suspended their UK business wholesale until they the outcome of Brexit is known
These are suppliers for which very high regulatory standards are of critical importance to their products. They supply things such very highly controlled drugs, radioactive material or laboratory animals. They simply could not deal with those regulations changing in an "uncertain" way potentially overnight nor can they bear the cost of preparing for every possible option.
Other suppliers are less wary / proactive, but almost all of them have issued a warning along the lines of: If "no deal" happens we will be suspending deliveries for a period of up to 6 months whilst we deal with the transition to the new arrangements. To deal with this we have spent hundreds of thousands of pounds stockpiling what we can . . . needless to say we can not do this with the more perishable reagents on which we depend.

On a more personal note my son also has epliepsy and is dependant upon a highly specialised drug. This drug is right at the top of every "Supplies at risk due to Brexit" list. Let me tell you that drug is hard to obtain NOW.
Every month is a highly stressful wrestling match between us, the inefficiencies in the NHS (Thank you Tory/LibDems for that one, Heath and social care act 2012) and the supply chain to the hospital pharmacy . . . . . a struggle with potentially fatal consequences. That is INSIDE the EU, it can literally ONLY be made worse by leaving it.

As for voting lib dem (below) - I probably will do. I know people say "it's a waste vote" - it's only a wasted vote because for the past 30 years people say it's a wasted vote. If people for once voted for the party they want instead of the "the best chance to defeat the one I hate most" then maybe that wasted vote will actually gain ground and make headway. Maybe in the following election it'll come first. Maybe there will be an actual change and contender between the other two, biblically incompetent, parties. I don't care what that outcome means anymore, I actually want to make a personal stand as I'm fed up with the "vote to defeat my most hated" mantra that means we're stuck with the utter garbage parties we have. People have done this for 30 years and guess what... we're cyclical between the two utter garbage parties we have BECAUSE of that. It's NEVER going to change with the same behaviour exhibited thus far. No-one is happy with either and then votes for one or the other because "oh noes they may get in can't have that". FFS. Realise the ones you hate will be in again within 1-2 parliament terms on average, so this dodging bull is not worth it. Make a change for once.

I principle I support the idea of tactical voting in this election. It's the only way to combat the built in flaws of FPTP and prevent a Tory majority.
However, even in the best case scenario, however, the outcome can only ever be imperfect, and hung parliament and all that entails.
I am HIGHLY cynical of the LibDems, frankly I think they are just using a hard remain position to rebuild their representation after the were all but electorally annihilated in 2015 (A tactic that seems to work in 2017 and the Euros) but as soon as they get a whiff of power again I think they'll turn.
Fortunately tactics do not require me to vote for them. . . . Perhaps I am being unfair and I hope to be proved wrong, I am not optimistic.

[Ronald Sandoval]

I have just watched this interesting video of Nigel Farage called Stepping Up where he is in conversation with Rod Liddle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weAruOC ... e=youtu.be

[RegisterMe]

I have just watched this interesting video of Nigel Farage called Stepping Up where he is in conversation with Rod Liddle https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=weAruOC ... e=youtu.be

Nice chap, Rod Little. Not.

[RegisterMe]

OK, it's not Brexit, but I watched the Royal British Legion Festival of Remembrance tonight (and, as in in other threads, I was in bits). I saw Boris, but I did not see Swanson (quite possibly my mistake) or Corbyn (definitely not my mistake, lots of shots of Emily Thornberry).

Did I miss something, or did the BBC's coverage let me down?

[pjknibbs]

I don't know if either were present there, but apparently all three main party leaders will be attending the service at the Cenotaph this morning:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-50362948

[euclid]

Let's just hope the upcoming elections are not as manipulated as the Brexit Referendum; there's hope since the truth about Cambridge Analytica is out now although I'm not sure the wider population are aware about it.

Cheers Euclid

[felter]

Farage is already manipulating the election. He has stopped his party from standing in any area that the Conservative party are likely to win, and will only put someone up for election in Labour held area's, in the hope of splitting the vote and trying to make it easier for the Conservatives to win. Once again he is playing with the UK voters for his own personal gain. He has already said he will not stand for election, I suspect the main reason for that is that if he so happened to win then he would have to stay in the country after we leave the EU, and he has no intention of staying here after that happens. He has already made it perfectly clear he is moving to America after we leave the EU. He wants to screw this country over so much.

[Olterin]

So uh, what do you folks make of the failure by the Government to release that report regarding possible Russian influence/interference (prior to the upcoming election)?

[RegisterMe]

So uh, what do you folks make of the failure by the Government to release that report regarding possible Russian influence/interference (prior to the upcoming election)?

Regardless of whether there was actually a Russian attempt at influence it has now become a beautiful piece of agitprop. Job done as far as Russia is concerned.

And I can understand the reluctance to release the report. Somebody will cry foul whatever it says .

[Alan Phipps]

... and the release of the report wouldn't change anything in terms of near-future elections anyway.

[felter]

HAPPY BREXIT DAY.

So today is the day that once again the UK becomes an isolated country YAY. To show just how screwed up this all is and how much of a massive mess it all is and how badly handled it has all been. Yesterday a lot of major companies got in touch and had a meeting with the UK Government to ask them if they would please clarify how trade is going to work, as they do not have a clue what they should be doing. Yes that's less than 24 hours to go and they still do not have a clue what they are supposed to be doing and how it is going to work and how they are going to do it. These assholes have had over 3 years to get this sorted out and with hours to go, they still haven't got a clue what they are doing. But we have to celebrate this tremendous occasions, as it's what's best for the country, not having a clue what to do.

[Vertigo 7]

HAPPY BREXIT DAY.

So today is the day that once again the UK becomes an isolated country YAY. To show just how screwed up this all is and how much of a massive mess it all is and how badly handled it has all been. Yesterday a lot of major companies got in touch and had a meeting with the UK Government to ask them if they would please clarify how trade is going to work, as they do not have a clue what they should be doing. Yes that's less than 24 hours to go and they still do not have a clue what they are supposed to be doing and how it is going to work and how they are going to do it. These assholes have had over 3 years to get this sorted out and with hours to go, they still haven't got a clue what they are doing. But we have to celebrate this tremendous occasions, as it's what's best for the country, not having a clue what to do.

At least you don't have Trump at the helm to make it worse.

[pjknibbs]

At least you don't have Trump at the helm to make it worse.

You've seen Boris Johnson, right?

Anyway, although we officially leave the EU at 11pm tonight, I think we still have another eleven months of trade negotiations to go before we actually lock down what that means, so I don't think anything is going to immediately change.

[Mightysword]

Well, as sad and as disagreeable I find this outcome to be, I wish the UK luck and prosperity as you will all try to make the best out of this situation regardless of the original opinion. Don't give in into cynicism for the shake of self-fulfilled doomsday prophecies.

[linolafett]

Sad to see you guys go.
I really hope you will be doing well without the eu and hope to see close relations between the mainland and you!

[Alan Phipps]

Thanks lino. Unfortunately, for *some* people living here in the UK, they *are* the mainland. In their minds, the rest of the European Union just forms part of a very big offshore island chain!

I'm sure though that we'll all eventually work something out that's tolerable in the long run.