Syria

[Bishop149]

How will Trump react if the Russians do as they say and sink an American ship?

Russia sure are making a hell of a threat, promising to destroy the source of any missiles launched.

If it wasn't for this I'd say that Trump will do what he did last time.
Pick a single target they have intelligence might have been involved with the incident, flatten it with a missile strike. Sit back looking smug as say "Look I DID something about it. . . . now lets all quietly forget all about it again."

In the face of that threat however, I'm not sure the US would risk it. . . . . Trump would but he's an idiot and thankfully not really in charge of such decisions.

[clakclak]

Not sure it really matters at this point, everyone deny, everyone point fingers, UN issues STRONG worded statement, life goes on. This will drag on until the complete genocide of the non assad people is complete and then that will be that.

The UN can hardly do anything as long as Russia and the US are members of the security council. They more or less control the UN and stop anything they do not like from coming to pass. Seing how the US was simply able to block a third party investigation into the recent deaths that that occured during the clashes between Israel and Palestine, the system (of having a supreme security council) seems to be massivly flawed.

And, Russia just blocked a resolution that there should be an independent investigation of the use of chemical weapons in Syria.[...]

Yep, brilliant system.

[greypanther]

I'd say that Trump will do what he did last time.
Pick a single target they have intelligence might have been involved with the incident, flatten it with a missile strike.

Except from what I read about that he did not flatten anything in reality, things were up and running pretty much immediately. He did not even deny the use of the runway!

But yes, fair point.

Edit: Update, according to the BBC, Trump has warned Russia to get ready for inbound missiles.

US President Donald Trump has tweeted that Russia should "get ready" for missiles to be fired into Syria, in response to an alleged chemical attack at the weekend.

Senior Russian figures had threatened to meet any US strikes with a response.

Mr Trump had promised a "forceful" reply to the suspected attack.

President Bashar al-Assad's government, which receives military backing from Russia, denies being behind any chemical attack.

In his tweet, Mr Trump called Mr Assad a "gas killing animal".

Trump tweeted:

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018

**** me, who needs diplomats when you have twitter!
I hope Putin does not react as his rhetoric suggests.

[greypanther]

I'd say that Trump will do what he did last time.
Pick a single target they have intelligence might have been involved with the incident, flatten it with a missile strike.

Except from what I read about that he did not flatten anything in reality, things were up and running pretty much immediately. He did not even deny the use of the runway!

But yes, fair point.

Edit: Update, according to the BBC, Trump has warned Russia to get ready for inbound missiles.

US President Donald Trump has tweeted that Russia should "get ready" for missiles to be fired into Syria, in response to an alleged chemical attack at the weekend.

Senior Russian figures had threatened to meet any US strikes with a response.

Mr Trump had promised a "forceful" reply to the suspected attack.

President Bashar al-Assad's government, which receives military backing from Russia, denies being behind any chemical attack.

In his tweet, Mr Trump called Mr Assad a "gas killing animal".

Trump tweeted:

Russia vows to shoot down any and all missiles fired at Syria. Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and “smart!” You shouldn’t be partners with a Gas Killing Animal who kills his people and enjoys it!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 11, 2018

**** me, who needs diplomats when you have twitter!
I hope Putin does not react as his rhetoric suggests.

I imagine the crew of the USS Donald Cook may be a little twitchy around about now...

[Bishop149]

I hope Putin does not react as his rhetoric suggests.

I imagine the crew of the USS Donald Cook may be a little twitchy around about now...

I'm no expert on Russian politics but from what I've seen, Putin's popularity seems built on his image as an international strongman viciously defending and expanding Russia's interests.
This doesn't make him seem like the type to make an idle threat as he might suffer significant political damage if he then fails to follow through.

[greypanther]

If you right then the background to the Threads film should be pointed out t Donald and Vlad?

Threads:

Background on the war

The chronology of the events leading up to the war is depicted entirely via television and radio news broadcasts, as well as a few newspaper reports. On 5 March, a news broadcast from a car shows that an allegedly US-backed coup d'état in Iran prompts the Soviet Union to occupy the northern part of the country, ostensibly to prevent the return of a pro-Shah regime. On 8 May, the USA hints at deploying troops to Iran, to prevent the Soviets from reaching the oil fields in the south. On 11 May, the US Navy in the Indian Ocean is put on high alert when rumours begin to circulate of the disappearance of the USS Los Angeles in the Persian Gulf. The next day, a collision in the Gulf of Oman between the Soviet battlecruiser Kirov and the USS Callaghan leaves the former badly damaged. Subsequent discoveries by American and Israeli search and rescue vessels reveal debris and an oil slick from the missing Los Angeles, prompting the US President to warn the Soviets over the possibility of an "armed confrontation—with incalculable consequences for all mankind."

On 17 May, the US sends its rapid deployment force to take defensive positions around Isfahan in western Iran, hoping to deter the Soviets from making further advances to the south, with a supporting role being taken by squadrons of B-52 bombers and E3 Sentries landing at US airbases. The Soviets respond by transporting nuclear warheads into their newly established base in Mashhad. On 20 May, the USA proposes a joint withdrawal from Iran to take effect by noon on the 22nd, while Britain sends troops to Europe amidst a build-up of Warsaw Pact troops in East Germany. The Soviets ignore the US ultimatum and, an hour after the expiry, are attacked at their base in Mashhad by B-52 bombers using conventional weapons. The Soviets defend the base with a nuclear tipped surface-to-air missile, destroying many B-52s. The battle ceases after US forces launch a battlefield nuclear weapon at the Soviet base.

On 23 May, fighting breaks out between the US and Soviet navies. On 24 May, amidst rioting in East Germany, the Soviets cut the road links into and out of West Berlin, whilst offering occupying NATO forces free passage to the west. The USS Kitty Hawk is sunk in the Persian Gulf, and the US blockades Cuba. Anti-Soviet riots in major US cities damage several Russian consulates. The next day, the BBC reports on the Mashhad nuclear exchange, stating that the weapons used were within the range of 50–100 kilotons, and that cities in western Pakistan are being evacuated due to the fallout.

Too much similarity, just replace the USS Kitty Hawk with the USS Donald Cook? A few different places and Dons your uncle!

Edit: At least one report says that the Russian fleet of 11 " battleships " has left Tartus in Syria and are now " on exercise " in the Med.

[Morkonan]

If you right then the background to the Threads film should be pointed out t Donald and Vlad?...

What's that background from? It reads like a "Harpoon" scenario.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harpoon_(video_game) (One of the bestest games, evar!)

[greypanther]

Threads, was:

Threads is a 1984 British television drama jointly produced by the BBC, Nine Network and Western-World Television Inc. Written by Barry Hines and directed by Mick Jackson, it is a docudrama account of nuclear war and its effects on the city of Sheffield in Northern England. The plot centres on two families as a confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union erupts. As the nuclear exchange between NATO and the Warsaw Pact begins, the film depicts the medical, economic, social and environmental consequences of nuclear war.

Shot on a budget of £250,000–350,000, the film was the first of its kind to depict a nuclear winter. Certain reviewers nominated Threads as the "film which comes closest to representing the full horror of nuclear war and its aftermath, as well as the catastrophic impact that the event would have on human culture".[2] It has been compared to the earlier programme The War Game produced in Britain in the 1960s and its contemporary counterpart The Day After, a 1983 ABC television film depicting a similar scenario in the United States. It was nominated for seven BAFTA awards in 1985 and won for Best Single Drama, Best Design, Best Film Cameraman and Best Film Editor.

You can still buy it on Amazon.

[Sorkvild]

So Assad has once again... YEAH
BTW that's an excuse, someone really want to kick out Russians from their foothold in Mediterranean. Why care about some victims of alleged chem attacks. Previously thousands of people died from the hands of ISIS butchers and world didn't do a damn about it besides some gum flapping on twitter and erasing some tents and other shit by using missiles worth millions of dollars. USA cant be bogged in another war in this region, because their main attention is on China and Pacific right now. Obama's administration knew it so does the Trump' and that is why the US pulled out of Iraq just in time. It's all in current geopolitics analyses.
https://i.imgur.com/yFzyc3t.jpg

{Images posted directly to the forums should not be greater than 640x480 or 100kb, oversize image now linked - Terre}

[felter]

I don't think it was Asad that did it, I think it is Russia/Putin that did it.

I also think that England and many other teams Germany, France, Belgium and the rest should now pull out of the world cup. Football fans and spectators should also be either stopped or warned that their safety can no longer be assured if they travel to Russia.

[Chips]

Russia is good with missiles, but it's navy is moderately pants. But that's fairly irrelevant because I doubt much will come of all this bluster. After all, Turkey shot down a Russian fighter - what happened? Nothing. Russia did nothing after the last missile of an airbase either.

[Hank001]

Trump wants to pull eveybody in the middle east out and put them where he thinks the REAL enemy is. The boarder with Mexico.

(Guess the also thinks they won't meet any Russian troops there.)

He's time limited as o how long he can keep the National Guard deployed without ledislative assent (180 days in most cases).

So expect him to shuffle in the active duty troops in the future, IF congress doesn't tell him to take a hike first.

[philip_hughes]

Not in Mexico, but this is a Mexican standoff. Trump must fire missiles if he wants to save face. Putin has promised to shoot them down and hit the launch sites.

Its there anyone here who is really, really clever who can think of a way out of this?

[Cpt.Jericho]

That's a fairly easy one:
Those missles get fired but self-destruct in mid-flight before Russia can take counter measures. That way Trump can say those missles were detroyed b the hand of god.
Argentina will raise Maradonna to a hero of peace while in front of the Vatican people will demand Maradonna as subito sanctus.

[Observe]

Trump must fire missiles if he wants to save face.

Not necessarily true. All Trump has to do to save face, is say whatever he wants about it and attribute false media to anything contrary. Or, he could say it was simply a bluff to make a point. Trump has so many ways out of facing reality and casting blame. With him, it seems as long as there is constant turmoil, he is happy.

This will blow over and he will move back to the wall or some-such. Or, it won't blow over and there will be military action where Russia and America have a chance to play with their respective weapons. Either way, Russia knows full-well that they can't match American firepower - unless Putin is confident in his new weapons and thinks he has the upper-hand.

[Hank001]

The "Social Club" option.

Trump calls Putin (Or vise-versa) on their prvate lines. Things are degenerating and they have to do some somerhing besides the usual posturing. The plan to depopulate the country's major cities isn't progressing fast enough and forcing Russia's allies to use measures that are getting too much attention. Russia cut covert supply of standard chem agents, Assad's troops start using easily obtainable substances like bulk clorine instead. Plus their Navies are not playing nice, but simply aren't getting the bigger picture. Trump and Putin work out some incident that will allow them both to look strong, save face and got back to business as usual. They both think there are bigger issues to worry about.

[pjknibbs]

We have to assume here that Trump's military advisors have taken him aside and told him that firing missiles at Syria probably isn't in America's interest right now, hence the sudden change in attitude.

[Hank001]

From what I've been getting from friends in D.C. Trump doesn't "get advice". He tells people what he's going to do or what they are going to do, if they are lucky. Usually they have absolutely no clue until it's either an order on their desk, tweeted to the entire world, or after the general officers drag back from an "emergency meeting" with their asses handed to them if they dare obect to anything. One commented that Trump has a low opinion of the Pentigon because they "Dont know how the game is played." Meaning they want to play by the rulebook. The new rule is, what Trump says goes. So the Joint Chiefs aren't seeing that much of the inside of the White House unless Trump needs a photo op with them.

[muppetts]

Not sure it really matters at this point, everyone deny, everyone point fingers, UN issues STRONG worded statement, life goes on. This will drag on until the complete genocide of the non assad people is complete and then that will be that.

The UN can hardly do anything as long as Russia and the US are members of the security council. They more or less control the UN and stop anything they do not like from coming to pass. Seing how the US was simply able to block a third party investigation into the recent deaths that that occured during the clashes between Israel and Palestine, the system (of having a supreme security council) seems to be massivly flawed.

No argument here, just pointing out the futility of it all.

[Morkonan]

I don't think it was Asad that did it, I think it is Russia/Putin that did it....

I want to know, without a doubt, who did it.

It seems like an insanely stupid thing for Assad or Putin to authorize, just when Trump announces he's going to start pulling out of Syria. I am not saying they didn't do it or that it was faked, I'm saying I want to know who did it and be sure about it, first.

France has said they have proof. OK, I want to see it.

Trump, in typical "can't wipe his own @$$ without Tweeting about it" style, said he was going to launch missiles at something, somewhere, and called Russia out with "'Get ready Russia, because they will be coming, nice and new and 'smart!' " Yeah, whatever. I'm sure Trump thought someone would be impressed, him saying stuff about "smart" an' all.

But, I've heard he's walking that threat back, at least today. That's just friggin great, too. Keeps 'em on their toes, I guess, except that's a bad place to keep potential enemies.

Will there be some sort of strike? Sure, it's likely. Where? Some big-friggin-thing that takes nice pictures, but probably doesn't do much against Assad that can't be fixed with a coat of paint and duct-tape.

The whole place is going to heck in a handbasket ever since Obama stalled while idling on it... "I know! Let's supply some rebels an' stuff!" WHAT A GREAT FOOKIN' IDEA! May as well just have shipped rifles to ISIS, direct, or opened up the prisons and given everyone Molatov cocktails or something.

Nobody gave two squirts about Libya except France. And, when France got pissed, they called in their markers. And, after? It's a fookin mess. Syria, on the other hand, won't be a fookin' mess no matter what happens. Why? Russia is there, that's why. They're there to "protect their interests." IMO, they're there to prop up Assad and then, once he is out of the picture, which is inevitable, they'll be the only stable force in Syria that is on "the inside." Win/win That was pretty much a foregone conclusion - Nobody Russia doesn't like is going to get any power in Syria as long as Russia has anything to say about it.

Heck, that may not be a bad thing as far as stability is concerned. It'll be easy to keep Syria stable once Assad is out of power and living in Dubai. It'll be easy because anyone who disagrees with the people in charge will wake up dead one day or have a family member disappear and that will be that... :/

There is no way out of this mess that ends well for the people in Syria.

The only possible way out is if it can be proven, without a doubt, that Assad directly ordered chemical attacks and has a continuing chemical weapons program. And, then he'll have to be tried for "war crimes" and convicted. Chances are, that won't happen, because if he ends up on his way to the Hague, he will eat polonium salad... There's no way he wouldn't say "But, Russia made me do it" in some attempt to get a lesser charge and, even if they didn't do anything of the sort, they'll not risk that sort of crapstorm.

All just my opinion 'cause I'm ticked off that this situation exists, now, that everyone saw coming and nobody did squat about it. There was one time, one time only, in all this mess when there was a chance at a diplomatic solution and, after Assad, backed by Russia, dug in his heels, that chance was over.