A thought about international politics

[Usenko]

I have noticed something lately.

A friend of mine on FB frequently posts links to various sites relating to military hardware. The topics vary, but the message is consistent:

"America is losing its edge with regard to weapons technology! Russia is catching up!"

When you look at the source of all these sites, they have one thing in common: They're always Russian sites.

Now, this COULD be true. It is possible that Russia is making some massive strides; they could well be. But I can't help feeling that it's more likely Russia is making the same mistake they made during the Cold War - trying to scare the Americans by making their forces look better than they really are.

During the Cold War this backfired, because fooling the Americans into thinking they had (say) an inferior number of bombers or missiles left the Americans feeling that they had to produce more to maintain parity. A country with that much industrial and research muscle is not one you want to taunt into building more and newer stuff . . . .

(EDIT: I am making the assumption here that these websites are in fact representing government views, and as such are to some extent propaganda rather than simply excitable jingoistic citizens).

[RegisterMe]

So....?

[Alan Phipps]

I suspect that the only people who could tell you the entire truth of it are the ones least likely to tell you.

[CBJ]

During the Cold War this backfired, because fooling the Americans into thinking they had (say) an inferior number of bombers or missiles left the Americans feeling that they had to produce more to maintain parity. A country with that much industrial and research muscle is not one you want to taunt into building more and newer stuff . . . .

Are you sure it was a mistake? America wastes more money on military hardware they don't need, weakening their economic position in the long term (and even short term benefits are questionable, because the spending is likely to be at the expense of other infrastructure projects). Countries allied to you see America spending money on military hardware and come running to you to buy more of yours, strengthening your economy in both the short and long term. Sounds like a pretty successful tactic to me, at relatively little cost.

[Mightysword]

Are you sure it was a mistake? America wastes more money on military hardware they don't need, weakening their economic position in the long term (and even short term benefits are questionable, because the spending is likely to be at the expense of other infrastructure projects).

Mate, we're American, we already do that no matter if someone try to influence us or not.

Countries allied to you see America spending money on military hardware and come running to you to buy more of yours, strengthening your economy in both the short and long term. Sounds like a pretty successful tactic to me, at relatively little cost.

That works for American side too no?

So....?

^ My thought

[RegisterMe]

During the Cold War this backfired, because fooling the Americans into thinking they had (say) an inferior number of bombers or missiles left the Americans feeling that they had to produce more to maintain parity. A country with that much industrial and research muscle is not one you want to taunt into building more and newer stuff . . . .

Are you sure it was a mistake? America wastes more money on military hardware they don't need, weakening their economic position in the long term (and even short term benefits are questionable, because the spending is likely to be at the expense of other infrastructure projects). Countries allied to you see America spending money on military hardware and come running to you to buy more of yours, strengthening your economy in both the short and long term. Sounds like a pretty successful tactic to me, at relatively little cost.

One of the main factors in ending the Cold War was the massive increase in US military spending undertaken by Carter (ie not Reagan!). The USSR tried to match this, failed, and essentially stressed their already bankrupt economy to breaking point.

[Morkonan]

...When you look at the source of all these sites, they have one thing in common: They're always Russian sites.

Now, this COULD be true. It is possible that Russia is making some massive strides; they could well be. But I can't help feeling that it's more likely Russia is making the same mistake they made during the Cold War - trying to scare the Americans by making their forces look better than they really are.

During the Cold War this backfired, because fooling the Americans into thinking they had (say) an inferior number of bombers or missiles left the Americans feeling that they had to produce more to maintain parity. A country with that much industrial and research muscle is not one you want to taunt into building more and newer stuff . . . .

(EDIT: I am making the assumption here that these websites are in fact representing government views, and as such are to some extent propaganda rather than simply excitable jingoistic citizens).

I've noticed a fairly big push in Russian Military Hardware propaganda, recently. It's cropping up more on the "alternative "edgy" social media sites" these days. (Anecdotal observation)

Anything specific you're thinking about?

A few that crop up often are ultra-sonic cruise missiles, Russian fighters doing backflips, new Kalashnikov stuff, etc. And, of course, the more recent medium-range nuclear weapon issue.

Here's the thing, though - As terrible as it sounds, everything looks great on paper until it's in the field and the US has bunches of stuff doing bunches of stuff involving killing people and breaking things in the field and has had those things doing those things for a very long time, now. We haven't had a period of not being in a shooting war with something since Iraq...

Anyway, you'll see a lot of this kind of stuff being promoted in "news" and "social media" sites during certain periods when Russia wants to make a statement. You probably won't see a lot of it promoted during times when Russia is actually using military hardware in an unpopular military action. Promotion is good sometimes, but not all times.

Subject -> Intended message

Ultrasonic Cruise Missiles -> We don't like your Navy intruding into our affairs in the Black Sea and/ore we aren't impressed by your new naval hardware (DPRK also touted its consideration of importing these missiles back when KJI was looking for additional deterrence. Iran also, briefly, threatened same back when they were proud they had an inflatable navy. China threatens them as well, from time to time.)

BackFlipping Fighter Jets -> You can't hide a secret and we aren't impressed with your latest demonstration of air-superiority over an active warspace

Medium Range Nuclear Missiles -> Europe better not get uppity and/or you should consider our opinion on any European matters, especially those we consider a national interest. Tactical battlefield nuclear weapon use is something we have always considered an option in Europe. That goes for you, too, England.

Kalashnikov - We can do "tactical" too, so your shops and streets are not safe. We're going "modern" just like all the cool guys.

Drones - We can't afford stuff, so we put hand-grenades on cheap drones from Walmart. (Various entities have promoted this, since the subject of "squad level war drones" is popular.)

[CBJ]

That works for American side too no?

That's true, though the US are a little more choosy about who they sell to.

[Masterbagger]

I'm thinking back to the absurd amount of gear the Army provided for me. When I was issued to an infantry regiment I had tens of thousands of dollars worth of clothing and gadgets. It's hard to picture how any bit of technical trickery is going to counter the sheer amount of money and logistics behind the US Military. Our lowest ranking grunts can see and shoot in the dark and wherever they are they have energy drinks and tobacco. I don't think Russia can match that. Wasn't it not all that long ago that they stopped issuing footwraps and started using socks?

[Mightysword]

Anyway, you'll see a lot of this kind of stuff being promoted in "news" and "social media" sites during certain periods when Russia wants to make a statement. You probably won't see a lot of it promoted during times when Russia is actually using military hardware in an unpopular military action. Promotion is good sometimes, but not all times...

It's the samething with China. Remember when they was boasting about the new Air to Air missile with a demonstration on state television which turn out to be a clip from Top Gun? I remember the video when China unveil its stealth fighter ... it showed something suspiciously look like a cardboard imitation of a F-117 and F-22 hybrid ... taxing down the run way, (yeah, not even a take off or in fly). Tbh, the reason these things is a buzz because people just love talking about something "cool", just like nothing capture the public's attention more then a spy episode. I doubt it's even meant for international consumption, the propoganda is most likely for their own people first. But hey, if there is any unwitting soul from outside pick up on it and get panic, that'll just be a bonus.

[fiksal]

To me, it doesnt looks like there's a coherent strategy coming from Russia.



The message is always two fold from Russia:
- when there's a talk about the Russia's might, it suddenly has technology superior to USA in many ways, and certainly would be an edge against a possible war, that was discussed several times. The accent has varied... some 5 years ago, the talk was about how good the nukes are and how well they'll hit the US targets; then the talk changed into (mythical?) anti missile defense systems. Now we are back to nuking USA, but more of a fringe folklore thing.
- when there's a talk about Russia's troubles, the NATO budget has been said to exceed Russia's greatly, and a big area of concern for Russia in the case of possible probable imminent attack... via Ukraine route.


The rest I classify as wishes:
- There's a wish to split and destroy NATO. But so far not terribly successful, only Trump is onboard with that idea and he doesn't seem to do much about it.
- There's push to control nearby former USSR countries. That's working well enough.


All this wraps into promotion of military in Russia. And I guess if you do it in Russia, you may as well do it outside.

[Morkonan]

It's the samething with China. Remember when they was boasting about the new Air to Air missile with a demonstration on state television which turn out to be a clip from Top Gun? I remember the video when China unveil its stealth fighter ... it showed something suspiciously look like a cardboard imitation of a F-117 and F-22 hybrid ... taxing down the run way, (yeah, not even a take off or in fly). ...

I remember those. Though, China doesn't quite get so ridiculous with some of its military propaganda as other nations. They're still a bit reserved with some things, careful to avoid certain types of attention. They get tons of criticism for their internal policies and their sabre-rattling and territorial disputes and "humanitarian" concerns. They absolutely, must, beyond any other consideration continue growing their economy by any means possible... That means foreign trade and investment. They can't afford a lot of nations suddenly getting a bit wary of their military ambitions.

To me, it doesnt looks like there's a coherent strategy coming from Russia.

Word is that despite his continued flexing and his daily morning bear-humping ritual in the Siberian wilderness while drinking straight Sterno and shaving his face by scrubbing it with rocks, Putin's public popularity is waning...

Truth be told, he need the symbolism of a very large penis shaped object doing great deeds in the minds of the Russian people. It's a brave penis-shaped object, capable of defending Russia and protecting it from the infection of less manly-man countries. And, it's on fire! What is more intimidating than a large flaming phallus except a large flaming phallus that can impose its will whenever it wants? Very intimidating. Much scary. So phallus.

- when there's a talk about Russia's troubles, the NATO budget has been said to exceed Russia's greatly, and a big area of concern for Russia in the case of possible probable imminent attack... via Ukraine route.

Russia has always been concerned about Ukraine and NATO ambitions. Everyone is aware of that no less so than Ukraine, itself. Even when NATO and Ukraine held joint exercises, both publicly stated there were no ongoing intentions for Ukraine to join NATO. (They used to be regularly scheduled, dunno now.) The last one I can think of, atm, of any significance was when Russia temporarily invaded Georgia. (Pretty much was goaded into it by Georgia,IMO.) There were about 150 US Military personnel there at the time due to Georgia trying to seek closer relations with NATO. And, NATO didn't want to have a darn thing to do with whatshisnut, the leader of Georgia, because he was an idiot... And, Georgia was too much in the thick of things at the time for worthy consideration - NATO does not want member-states who increase its chances of actually having to go to war.

In short - There's been a long history of back-and-forth manuevering, manipulating the "NATO Meme" on both sides. NATO has no intention and has never had any intention of "invading anyone." Technically... it can't do that. There's no mandate or requirement that I know of that can use NATO to unite its members, by treaty, to enter into offensive actions against a country. (aka:Invasion) There could be some shenanigans and cooperation that might seem like that, but to really do it would require its members, which is a lot of Europe, actually "agreeing" on doing it without any true treaty requirements. I think they'd argue about it until they forgot what they were arguing about. NATO also can't justify an action to counteract Russian annexation of Ukrainian territory, either. At this point, it's even been too long for anyone to raise any sort of possibility of a reasonable "reaction to a threat" sort of scenario. ie: Dead issue as far as direct NATO involvement is concerned unless Russia does something really stupid.

..All this wraps into promotion of military in Russia. And I guess if you do it in Russia, you may as well do it outside.

The military is manly and patriotic and filled with manly men doing manly things for manly reason... and patriotism. Manly patriotism, just like Putin!