Coronavirus: COVID-19

[felter]

I watched a video in the last week or so that was all about graphs and how they use certain graphs to show certain things a certain way, and how graphs may not actually show you the truth, they only show you what they want to show to see. He was using the same data and when he used some graphs everything looked like, hey that's not so bad, but when he used alternative graphs and it was like a whole different set of results that were bad but they were the same data. I'll maybe try and look for it later but anyway don't trust the graphs you are looking at, as it turns out they may be making it look better than it actually is.

[PlutonianNyborg]

BBC News just dropped that Wimbldon is cancelled. First time since WW2.

[Alan Phipps]

@ felter: Yes, a lot of people don't understand when you should use a linear scale, a geometric scale, or a logarithmic scale for trend, growth and acceleration graphs when you want to show what is actually happening. Using the wrong type of scale for an axis can appear to show the complete opposite of when using the correct scale. Also you can appear to skew data significantly just by moving the origin of an axis. (eg Comparing Covid-19 deaths in countries on this specific date rather than comparing deaths in countries for the same number of days since first infection in that country.)

[felter]

LOL, you sound just like the guy who made that video.

[Gavrushka]

LOL, you sound just like the guy who made that video.

I am really, really pleased I wasn't the only one who got a nosebleed reading it. I'd have felt more at ease if Alan had tried explaining his philosophy on artichokes...

[RegisterMe]

Why? If you don't speak... Arabic, or Russian, or Spanish, you wouldn't rock up in any of those countries expecting to understand everything, would you? If you're not numerate (enough) you wouldn't understand how (and maybe why) data is presented to you. How is it different?

It's regrettable that some people don't understand these things. Just as it's regrettable that some journalists printing such material don't understand it either.

Education education education education. And when that's done with, some respect for those who know more about something than you do.

[felter]

So America now has more confirmed cases than both Spain and Italy combined, while their death toll has jumped above 5k. Meanwhile Trump has taken to a different point of view, but it had to get personal for that to happen. Turns out he had a friend, well he knew someone (as I don't think he actually has friends) that was in hospital due to the virus, he got in touch with the hospital to find out how he was doing just to find out he was in a coma, suddenly the virus got real for him.

It turns out the numbers here in the UK cannot be trusted, as Boris has been playing the game. The death count is propabably at least 20% higher than we are being told, as to be on the official death toll you have to be in hospital when you die. Along with the fact that only certain people or the ones in hospital are the only ones being tested, not to mention that they haven't even been testing the doctors or nurses, the ones at the most risk. To think the other week there, they had the cheek and audacity to accuse Iran of lying about their numbers, just for them to be doing the exact same thing.

[Vertigo 7]

So America now has more confirmed cases than both Spain and Italy combined, while their death toll has jumped above 5k. Meanwhile Trump has taken to a different point of view, but it had to get personal for that to happen. Turns out he had a friend, well he knew someone (as I don't think he actually has friends) that was in hospital due to the virus, he got in touch with the hospital to find out how he was doing just to find out he was in a coma, suddenly the virus got real for him.

It turns out the numbers here in the UK cannot be trusted, as Boris has been playing the game. The death count is propabably at least 20% higher than we are being told, as to be on the official death toll you have to be in hospital when you die. Along with the fact that only certain people or the ones in hospital are the only ones being tested, not to mention that they haven't even been testing the doctors or nurses, the ones at the most risk. To think the other week there, they had the cheek and audacity to accuse Iran of lying about their numbers, just for them to be doing the exact same thing.

His "friend" wasn't Putin, by chance? Story ran a day or two ago that he might have been exposed. Figured Trump would be pushing for a relief package for Russia any day now.

[pjknibbs]

Well, looks like I have to hope that Currys still deliver even during the lockdown, because my washing machine just died on me.

[Gavrushka]

Well, looks like I have to hope that Currys still deliver even during the lockdown, because my washing machine just died on me.

I believe deliveries are still coming through, yes. I've seen B&Q and Argos trucks about, and I remember reading that laundromats are considered an essential shop, so washing machine deliveries should be too.

Memories, as a student, of trampling duvets in the bath with my girlfriend, before bursting veins trying to dry it enough to take it out to the line. Damn, that was well back in the last century... I miss you Ange.

[CBJ]

It turns out the numbers here in the UK cannot be trusted, as Boris has been playing the game. The death count is propabably at least 20% higher than we are being told, as to be on the official death toll you have to be in hospital when you die. Along with the fact that only certain people or the ones in hospital are the only ones being tested, not to mention that they haven't even been testing the doctors or nurses, the ones at the most risk. To think the other week there, they had the cheek and audacity to accuse Iran of lying about their numbers, just for them to be doing the exact same thing.

This is a bit disingenuous. The main issue with the numbers is that there is a lag between the data being collected and it being collated. They present the data as it's collated and then later the numbers are verified more accurately, with the result that sometimes the original numbers turn out not to be quite right. That doesn't mean those numbers were "lies"; it means that they were the best figures available at the time. Regarding only counting the numbers in hospitals, the lag will likely be longer for people who don't die in hospitals as they won't necessarily know for sure what the person died of if they are not under treatment. In some cases the cause of death won't be investigated in detail and an assumption will be made, and they may never know for sure whether they died of COVID-19 or flu, for example. Again: not "lies", just inaccuracy and uncertainty in numbers.

Of course the issue over the testing of NHS staff is another matter. There is clearly a desperate shortage of tests, and the allocation of those tests to different priorities is a very difficult issue. I think we can all agree that the government should have ramped up the sourcing of the tests, or more importantly the materials to make those tests, more quickly, but given that basically every government in the world has been trying to do the same thing, it's hard to tell how much of that failure is lack of effort and how much was unavoidable.

I should point out again that I am no fan of Boris or his politics, and I won't hesitate to criticise when I see the need, but jumping on the "they LIED!" bandwagon every time some numbers are not quite accurate in the middle of a worldwide crisis doesn't seem to be a very helpful approach.

[birdtable]

After watching the mob reaction in panic buying, think it would be inevitable that reassuring statements are made.
@ Garvrushka ... Hope Ange is a fan of Egosoft and frequents this forum...

[Alan Phipps]

@ pjknibbs: Rest assured, I know that the Hotpoint/Whirlpool appliance delivery drivers are still working as they are 'key workers' (a fact that rather surprised me too).

Now, about artichokes ...

[Chips]

It turns out the numbers here in the UK cannot be trusted, as Boris has been playing the game. The death count is propabably at least 20% higher than we are being told, as to be on the official death toll you have to be in hospital when you die. Along with the fact that only certain people or the ones in hospital are the only ones being tested, not to mention that they haven't even been testing the doctors or nurses, the ones at the most risk. To think the other week there, they had the cheek and audacity to accuse Iran of lying about their numbers, just for them to be doing the exact same thing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52103808

It's like a face palm response to your conspiracy; it isn't a cover up. It's not a political gamesmanship either. It just requires reading.

[Gavrushka]

@ Garvrushka ... Hope Ange is a fan of Egosoft and frequents this forum...

Ange took to dating women after 8 years with me, and wishes me nothing but an extremely violent and painful death. If she does start frequenting this place, look out for a familiar name in the 'Death announcements for persons of unnote' thread in this forum.

[felter]

I wish it was my own conspiracy theory, but I'm afraid it's not. I got the story from the BBC keep up to date ticker thingy, where numerous doctors and coroners have been trying to register home deaths from Covis-19, but they are not being allowed to register them as official, as only deaths in hospitals are being counted. So even if the death certificate gives covid-19 as the reason of death, they are not being officially counted by the UK government. As for them doing testing, just the news story from the NHS today that they are only being able to do 13,000 daily tests, when they should be doing 25,000 daily tests, due to them not being supplied with the test kits from the government. So 12,000 people a day that should be tested aren't being tested, leads to the question just how many of those 12,000 have the virus and are not being officially counted. So unfortunately I speak the truth, sorry about that if you don't like it.

As for them being late in updating, I know that the Scottish government are not doing a full reported count over the weekends, so on a Monday or Tuesday it looks like a bad day for Scotland, but it's actually number from several days, so I do know that is happening but it's only at the weekends. I guess they are trying to give people a rest.

[CBJ]

Please link the article. I read one that sounds very similar to the one you describe, but it didn't come to the conclusion that there was some kind of conspiracy. As I said, doctors dealing with patients in the home almost certainly won't have the means to confirm the cause of death as COVID-19. If they can't confirm the causes of those deaths then fairly obviously those deaths won't be included in a statistic that counts "confirmed COVID-19 deaths". As Alan said a few posts back, interpreting data involves understanding that data. Journalists often don't, and nor do their readers, which can lead to people getting worked up over things they really don't need to.

[Vertigo 7]

CDC is saying 1 in 4 infected are asymptomatic - carriers that show no symptoms. Need a better reason to avoid the public as much as possible?

[Gavrushka]

Had a drunken neighbour hammering on my door last night. - Well, after throwing handfuls of chipped bark at my window for a minute or two... - I had to get them to back off, but thinking something terrible had happened, opened the door. (This was at 22:40 last night.) - Turns out she had had the brilliant idea of baking pies for everyone on lockdown, and came to me because a great way to tell our neighbours was because I had the internet... - I've a security camera has recorded the whole drunken episode, but Vertigo's post above mine just underlines how these halfwits are, as a whole, leading to further loss of life.

Right now, I'm wondering whether I should inform the police. - I believe their powers would cover such idiocy, albeit by way of scaring the shit out of her. Maybe it's best to just keep a copy of the video*, and have a quiet and distant word, telling her to stop being such a f***wit, drunk or otherwise.

I think the upshot is that many people don't handle social isolation well. - An acquaintance (by social media) living on Canary Wharf, said her neighbour had a 'playdate' yesterday, with both mothers and kids staying. - How is this gonna be panning out another month from now, if people can't make it past a fortnight without descending into idiocy?



*Video is in format mp4, but won't play outside of my iVMS software, although I can take screenshots. - Says file format not supported. Is there a way to fix that? Codecs or whatever?

[felter]

Use Handbrake, it's a free open source video transcoder, if it can't open and and change it's format, probably nothing can.