Coronavirus: COVID-19

[Tamina]

It is not about the impulsiveness, it is about a persons action being judged in hindsight. A person is a hero/intelligent when doing something risky works out, and utterly stupid when it doesn't.
- Walking in a supermarket saturday noon and the store is full - stupid.
+ Walking in a supermarket saturday noon and the store is empty, because everyone thought it would be full and stayed home - intelligent.
+ Redbull pilot successfully doing a stunt everyone thought would be impossible - hero.
- Redbull pilot doing a stunt everyone thought would be impossible, crashes and dies - stupid, darwin award.

Which is wrong imo because noone is stupid or intelligent but everyone is using all information (or lack thereof) at that time to make the best decision possible, which in hindsight was simply unreasonable in that case. I am definitly not going down the route to call anyone stupid.

[felter]

The thing is, the smart person would see how bad it was, turn around go home and go back later. Also for some reason these people seem to think the short delay before lockdown means it's time to get out of dodge ASAP, but that is not the idea of the gap between announcement and the lockdown starting. Nope these people are class A idiots, and there is no justification for what they are doing.

[X2-Illuminatus]

The EU has approved the BioNTech-Pfizer COVID vaccine now, too. Thus vaccination can still start this year.

[RegisterMe]

https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/rever ... r-vaccine/

This is a really, really good read. Explains the biology behind it and the manufacturing process, and expresses it in "coder" language.

[chew-ie]

https://berthub.eu/articles/posts/rever ... r-vaccine/

This is a really, really good read. Explains the biology behind it and the manufacturing process, and expresses it in "coder" language.

Thanks a lot! Finally something I can understand

[Gavrushka]

Astrazeneca vaccine has been approved for use in the UK, and rollout will start on January 4th.

The not-for-profit-vaccine has up to 90% efficacy when a half dose is followed by a further full dose as a booster. And it costs £3.00 per shot!

The vaccine is very easy to transport at fridge temperatures.

[red assassin]

Is there a decent public analysis of the AZ vaccine data available yet? Last I saw the public data was still very messy (combined across multiple trials) and the real-world efficacy was a bit of an open question (70% ish maybe, except for a small trial in younger participants where they screwed up the dosing regimen which produced higher results). Not that I won't get it when my turn comes up - I think there's approximately a 0% chance of me getting offered anything other than the AZ one - but the data for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines is very clean and clear-cut, and I'd at least like a decent answer for what it does to my risk profile.

[Gavrushka]

Being televised right now. - All data will be released today/soon. - Scientists/doctors are explaining efficacy and why the 1st / 2nd dosage time gaps and sizes are as they are. Doctor also explained why efficacy has different levels, and it's down to the, yeah, very messy subsets of data.

[RegisterMe]

I'll be interested to see the thinking behind the "single dose" approach. The rationale is easy to construct, but I'd like to see the data / analysis.

[Gavrushka]

One of the three wise dudes doing the news conference explained the reasoning behind it, and I get the impression the new more transmissible strain of Covid-19 has meant they want to spread the doses as widely and as quickly as possible. There is no single dose approach, as I saw, but they do seem to have expanded the gap between first and second doses to 'up to' 12 weeks or so. - There was a secondary medical justification for this, but I don't know if that was just a case of taking an approach and then justifying it by an interpretation of the data to suit.

*AH EDIT* - RM, if you'd meant a full dose as against a half dose in the first instance, there was a very good explanation as to why, and it was data driven, but I can't for the life of me think what it was. - You'll have to watch a replay of the conference where that was addressed in full.

[Tamina]

Is that the Oxford one?

[CBJ]

Yes.

[RegisterMe]

@Gavrushka, yeah, like I said, it's fairly easy to hypothesise about such a scenario eg "the prevalence of the new strain has changed the balance of overall public good such that an initial dose to provide some coverage to the maximum number of people, with a follow on dose to come later than initially planned, is now more beneficial than one dose followed by a second dose two weeks later but provided to fewer people initially".

I just wanted to see the data .

[felter]

So that's Scotland back in full lockdown again from midnight tonight till the end of the month. This includes all schools staying closed and you are not supposed to be meeting family and friends in the home, you can only meet up with a single person from a single household outside. All work has to be done from home unless it is essential work.

My Sisters fella is up from England, he is supposed to be going back there tomorrow, that's not going to happen, right now he has a little over 4 hours to get out of Scotland or he will be stuck here till at least next month.

[CBJ]

England too now.

[Tycow]

Lockdown 3: Lockdown Harder.

Or is this 4... I've no idea now.

[Alan Phipps]

UK England lockdown: Primary Schools to close but Nursery groups to remain open (for keyworkers only?) yet no mention about Infants' Schools. I'm confused.

[CBJ]

Primary Schools to close but Nursery groups to remain open (for keyworkers only?) yet no mention about Infants' Schools. I'm confused.

Infants Schools are equivalent to the first 3 years of Primary Schools, so they will be closed too.

[red assassin]

Can we just take a moment to appreciate what may be a new record in Boris' continuing efforts to perfect the abrupt policy U-turn?

BBC news, yesterday afternoon: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55521580 'Parents should send children to primary school on Monday if they are open, the prime minister has said, responding to concerns over rising Covid-19 cases. Boris Johnson said there was "no doubt in my mind that schools are safe" but did not rule out further closures.'

Literally 24 hours between "no doubt in [his] mind that schools are safe" and all schools in the country shutting. Amazing. I don't remember how long it took between the last "under absolutely no possible circumstances will we cancel Christmas" briefing and the "never mind lol, Christmas is cancelled" announcement, but I'm pretty sure it was longer than literally one day. I've lost count of how many times this basic pattern has repeated now: 1) Cases start rising; scientists and opposition leaders start calling for the prompt implementation of policies to curb the rise. 2) Boris loudly insists that no such policies will be necessary. 3) Cases continue to rise. Calls continue. 4) Boris loudly insists that no such policies will be necessary. 5) Boris implements said policies. Cases are now high enough that goto step 1).

[CBJ]

Indeed. It would have made it so much easier for everyone if he'd just bitten the bullet and made the decision earlier. Schools, for example, could have planned for a new term of online learning if this decision had been made before the holidays, when it was already blatantly obvious to anyone with half a brain cell that the situation was going to get worse. Instead the school staff were sent into a tailspin trying to prepare for a COVID testing system regime with no information and a half-baked plan for "remote assistance" from the military. To say nothing of the poor primary school kids who were prepared for a new term and then sent home again after one day. The one thing he did right was to cancel this year's exams well in advance, rather than leaving the year 11 children hanging for months like he did last year.