Coronavirus: COVID-19

[red assassin]

To repeat CBJ's question, is this specifically advice you have received from your doctor or are you just assuming? NHS documentation here notes that, while some immunocompromised patients may have a suboptimal response to the vaccine and thus not be fully protected, they are a priority to receive the vaccine and there are no groups which are excluded from receiving it. As a general rule, for non-live vaccines (none of the Covid vaccines are live), the standard clinical guidance is that there's no additional risk in receiving the vaccine, and some level of protection is better than none at all.

As a side note, a recent cohort study of Covid outcomes found that hospitalised patients on immunosuppressants don't have worse outcomes than the general population. (This doesn't exclude the immunocompromised being more likely to be hospitalised, of course, but it does suggest that immunosuppressants don't automatically prevent someone from recovering from Covid.)

[Gavrushka]

1,500+ people died of Covid-19 in the UK today. There'll be many who simply didn't need to, and doubtless some of those who died did so because their loved ones didn't follow the rules. What really hit me hardest today was watching the news, and seeing doctors and nurses in an ICU doing their utmost to save lives. They'd been doing that every day for the better part of a year. - Just as some of their patients never recover, I don't imagine many of those on the front line will ever fully recover from what they've experienced. That kinda trauma of seeing people suffocate in front you is beyond imagining.

I've a neighbour who simply justifies doing as he pleases with the phrase 'don't trust the government.' God help me, telling you how I want to respond would likely see me thrown off this forum, so I'll leave it to your imagination.

On a more positive note, the doctor's surgery has been in touch, and will soon be arranging a home visit to do mum's Covid-19 vaccination. - With any luck, it'll be done 3+ weeks before she goes in for a mastectomy.

[euclid]

School friend of my daughter is a doctor working in a hospital. She tested positive, was vaccined and recovered. Now, without any symptoms, tested positive again. Conclusion: Even if you are immune to the effects of Covid you are still a carrier and spread the disease.

Cheers Euclid

[Chips]

1,500+ people died of Covid-19 in the UK today. There'll be many who simply didn't need to, and doubtless some of those who died did so because their loved ones didn't follow the rules. What really hit me hardest today was watching the news, and seeing doctors and nurses in an ICU doing their utmost to save lives. They'd been doing that every day for the better part of a year. - Just as some of their patients never recover, I don't imagine many of those on the front line will ever fully recover from what they've experienced. That kinda trauma of seeing people suffocate in front you is beyond imagining.

I've a neighbour who simply justifies doing as he pleases with the phrase 'don't trust the government.' God help me, telling you how I want to respond would likely see me thrown off this forum, so I'll leave it to your imagination.

On a more positive note, the doctor's surgery has been in touch, and will soon be arranging a home visit to do mum's Covid-19 vaccination. - With any luck, it'll be done 3+ weeks before she goes in for a mastectomy.

ICU's usually are full of people doing their utmost to fight to save lives - prior to covid as well as during and after! They do it every single day of every single year... permanently. Just at present the ICU's are crammed to the rafters when usually they have spare capacity - and with sickness also in the workforce, the pressures must be incredible and sustained (whereas usually it's seasonal pressure - winter being way worse than summer).

There was a post doing the rounds a month ago. Something like "Your grandparents were called to fight in world wars, enduring food rations, isolation in shelters and trenches under bombs and fire. You're being called to wash your hands and sit on the couch. Don't F#%£ it up!". The inability for people to comply is just... baffling.

[Gavrushka]

There was a post doing the rounds a month ago. Something like "Your grandparents were called to fight in world wars, enduring food rations, isolation in shelters and trenches under bombs and fire. You're being called to wash your hands and sit on the couch. Don't F#%£ it up!". The inability for people to comply is just... baffling.

Yeah, the irony of it. - Our parents and grandparents fought and died for the freedom of the generations to follow, and now those generations are exercising that freedom to kill those who remain...

[Gavrushka]

UK's 'single dose' strategy could well be putting the over 60s at serious risk, according to a recent report.

Single dose strategy may result in very poor efficacy.

[Alan Phipps]

... whereas not having the UK's dosing strategy would put many of the over 60s a long way back in getting even their first dose while waiting on vaccine supplies as the over 80s and 70s and health/care workers get both of their doses.

More at-risk people having their first dose sooner is the intent. It's all a balance of risks and benefits based on science and medical advice that the UK evaluated carefully and made a decision intended to reduce both the death rate and the overwhelming pressure on the NHS as quickly as possible. Prevalence of the new more virulent Covid strain in the UK only reinforces their decision.

It's always the case that pundits and 'experts' that don't have to take any responsibility for the outcome of their 'concerns' based on unpublished research will try to second-guess the government's advisors' recommendations.

[Gavrushka]

I don't agree with the tone of the report, but Sir Patrick Vallance is looking into efficacy as a result of the additional information from Israel. - I agree with getting as many first doses out as possible, and the thing that isn't mentioned anywhere near frequently enough is the '33% effectiveness after 10 days' doesn't take into account that anyone catching it at that point is far less likely to have severe symptoms.

Mum still waiting for doctors to get in touch regarding vaccine. It is a little frustrating, but I appreciate the scale of the task.

[felter]

So the UK Government are claiming that the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain, as they try to explain the thousand plus deaths a day. A lot of it though is also down to a large part of the populace just ignoring the advice about social distancing, as the police announce two events with over 150 people at both that they had to close down, a wedding party and a funeral. They are all lucky as at the time the new fines for breaking the rules in England had not come into effect or every one of them would be facing an £800 fine, instead it is just the organisers who have been fined £10,000, bunch of idiots.

[RegisterMe]

So the UK Government are claiming that the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain, as they try to explain the thousand plus deaths a day. A lot of it though is also down to a large part of the populace just ignoring the advice about social distancing, as the police announce two events with over 150 people at both that they had to close down, a wedding party and a funeral. They are all lucky as at the time the new fines for breaking the rules in England had not come into effect or every one of them would be facing an £800 fine, instead it is just the organisers who have been fined £10,000, bunch of idiots.

Posts like this vex me. It's an important topic, it's important to be as accurate and precise as possible.

The UK government are not claiming the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain. What they are currently saying is that initial evidence is that the new variant of COVID-19 that emerged in the UK may be more deadly. A very different thing. Now it may turn out to be true that this new "UK strain" (ie identified here, but then again the UK does as much genomic sequencing of the virus as the rest of the world combined so new strains are that much more likely to be observed here!), but at the moment we don't have the evidence to support that statement.

People ignoring social distancing / self-isolation rules etc are certainly not helping. But do you have any evidence to back up the claim that "a lot of it" is down to "a large part of the populace just ignoring the advice"? Or is that summation on your part? I can't find the source data, and I believe that there are more recent reports, but a quick google found this - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-sup ... s-12136418

Supermarkets and schools at the top of the list.

But yeah, no argument that people going to weddings / parties / funerals etc are idiots, and deserve to called to account for it.

[Alan Phipps]

@ felter: Er, not really. The information given was that the new strain might be a bit more likely to cause deaths (around 1.35 % new strain fatality vs 1.0% old strain fatality for a 60 year old infected populace) and that this information is still speculative and subject to further research.

However, the explanation for the currently high death rate was the extremely high incidence of new infections within the populace several weeks ago and before the current lockdown and vaccination programme could have any marked positive effects. That high incidence resulted from the higher transmissability of the new strain (during reduced restrictions such as over Christmas) which is a far bigger factor in how we got to where we are now than its likely fatality %.

Yes, the people who continue to flout the imposed restrictions intended to reduce transmission are indeed crass idiots.

Final comment: The scientific and medical experts/advisors that you see at briefings giving data and information are NOT 'the UK government'.

[felter]

So the UK Government are claiming that the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain, as they try to explain the thousand plus deaths a day. A lot of it though is also down to a large part of the populace just ignoring the advice about social distancing, as the police announce two events with over 150 people at both that they had to close down, a wedding party and a funeral. They are all lucky as at the time the new fines for breaking the rules in England had not come into effect or every one of them would be facing an £800 fine, instead it is just the organisers who have been fined £10,000, bunch of idiots.

Posts like this vex me. It's an important topic, it's important to be as accurate and precise as possible.

The UK government are not claiming the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain. What they are currently saying is that initial evidence is that the new variant of COVID-19 that emerged in the UK may be more deadly. A very different thing.

No that's exactly what I said not a different thing.

Final comment: The scientific and medical experts/advisors that you see at briefings giving data and information are NOT 'the UK government'.

The person I seen given the statement was Boris Johnson, are you trying to say he is not the UK Government, that he is actually a scientist, god help us of that is true.

[Alan Phipps]

Heh, I think you are teasing. Boris does tend to get told what the scientists/medical experts at his briefing are going to present somewhat in advance so that he can introduce it appropriately. It is still the independent experts that present the actual professional data and information. (I admit that I do tend to listen more closely to them than I do to Boris. )

[red assassin]

People ignoring social distancing / self-isolation rules etc are certainly not helping. But do you have any evidence to back up the claim that "a lot of it" is down to "a large part of the populace just ignoring the advice"? Or is that summation on your part? I can't find the source data, and I believe that there are more recent reports, but a quick google found this - https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-sup ... s-12136418

Supermarkets and schools at the top of the list.

Not disagreeing with you in general, and working out where most covid transmissions are coming from is hard. I do want to point out that suggesting large numbers of people are getting Covid in supermarkets is almost certainly not the case, though. Of course people who test positive have generally been to the supermarket recently - nearly everybody has to go and buy food regularly! (Yes, there's delivery services, but they're not supplying most of the population.) But the risk levels for supermarkets are pretty low - exposures are transient, mask and distancing compliance is generally fairly good, etc. There's a list here of what counts as an exposure for contact tracing purposes - all of which are hopefully pretty uncommon in supermarkets.

[RegisterMe]

That's a useful clarification, thanks.

[RegisterMe]

@felter

Covid: More deadly UK variant claim played down by scientists.

EDIT: Here's a relevant 15 minute briefing from Fauci

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rH9s3z ... e=youtu.be

(I should add that this is two days old, and his statement about the UK variant not being more virulent might need to be revisited in light of new data).

[felter]

I don't know why you are directly aiming it at me, all I did was mention what Boris Johnson said, I never made it up, it wasn't my own view, it was Boris Johnson that was saying this. I wasn't even the only one who brought it up and quoted it as being truthful, seeing as every newspaper in the country had the exact same story on their front page today. I cannot help it if Boris Johnson is an incompetent fool, that farts out of the wrong hole, I'm just like everyone else who has to take what he is saying as possibly being the truth for a change, it just turns out this time it wasn't exactly 100% the truth, which as we know is not exactly a surprising thing to happen when it concerns Boris Johnson or the UK government. But none the less, it is what he said, while also being reported as what he said, and that was all I did was mention what he said, I'm just the messenger, I didn't make the message up, so don't bother shooting me for it.

[Alan Phipps]

I think I can see where it all started to go adrift.

"So the UK Government are claiming that the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain, as they try to explain the thousand plus deaths a day."

The two parts of that statement should not be directly linked, in my opinion:

1. "So the UK Government are claiming that the current strain of the virus is more deadly than the old strain ... " Yes, Boris did say something like that in a brief introduction but he used 'may be' rather than 'is'. He then handed over to an independent expert to explain why that possibility might be thought to be the case and to give the caveats about the potential reliability of the early research figures.

2. ".. as they try to explain the thousand plus deaths a day." That topic was separately explained by the experts and was laid at the high transmissability and incidence in the population of the new strain back around Christmas, which was when the new infections happened that are causing most daily deaths now. I do not believe that new strain mortality rate was even mentioned as a factor during that explanation because the experts do not yet know whether or to what extent it applies.

As you know from my previous posts, I do not agree that the independent experts should be labelled as 'The UK government' for the purposes of this discussion. I believe what they say to a far greater extent than anything said by a politician, but that is for another topic.

Maybe that could help to clear up the misunderstandings.

[RegisterMe]

Thanks Alan. And yes, one of the things I was trying to point out is that "may be" is not the same as "is".

With a subject like this I get twitchy when emphatic statements are made that are a) incorrect in the absolute and b) misrepresent what was actually said.

[BrasatoAlBarolo]

We (Italy) are divided in "coloured zones" based on different indicators: yellow, orange and red, from the less to the most restrictive. Data is periodically sent by regions to the central governments that, based on the data received, assigns a different "colour" to each region. A couple weeks ago, Lombardy (which has been the epicenter of the Italian epidemy for the last year) sent the wrong data to government, which based on that applied the red zone for them. Apparently, the real data was going to put them into "orange zone". They rectified last week and protested with the national government, asking for the head of healthcare minister for "reasons". So, they made a huge mistake, costing a lot to local business, but are trying to blame the government for their own mistake.
The mistake was something like:
Old cases + new cases = total cases - this determines the number of cases for 100.000 inhabitants, which is one of the indicators.
Explained and simplified, they aren't able to count:
418 +
348 =
7516