Catalonia.

[korio]

It seems the Cantalian's leadership backed themselves into a corner now. It seems clear the motion did not have the blessing of the local business, the EU had clearly rejected the idea, and the Spain govern is in a position of power. These delays seem to make their position weaker by the days.

This is like the result of the spur in a moment during the night and then wake up in the morning facing all the reality.

If they go ahead, they go to prison, if they back everything, they will probably lost the next election and go to jail anyway.

Right now they are "trying to talk" and win anything this way.

[Santi]

It is a bit early yet I think, while it has not going according to what Catalonia planned:

- Industry leaving is very significative, not only for the economic reasons, but because the owners of those companies are historic and the cream of the Catalan society.

- The international (press) focus is waning on the subject and there is almost no traction in the EU to get involved as mediators, as that will mean that the EU recognises Catalonia as a Republic and so on.

But Catalonia still have the a few tricks left, the streets have been very quiet, something that can change very quickly, as they can mobilize a lot of people for protests and defending the Republic, if Unionist go out in force too, that can cause a lot of strife and or violence and will catapult the issue back into the international press and the EU.

Then article 155 will be exploited as repression, witch hunt, oppression and what not.

Right now they are playing for time, trying to cultivate the little support gained from the EU like the Greens or Belgium, and probably trying to expand it by street protests if article 155 is triggered.

[Mightysword]

Right now they are playing for time, trying to cultivate the little support gained from the EU like the Greens or Belgium, and probably trying to expand it by street protests if article 155 is triggered.

Will that amount to anything though? The EU operate on a consensus basic in this kind of matter, so just by that fact Spain alone can already make it an nigh impossible prospect. And that is we're talking as if Spain is the 'only' one against it. Say, if I were a leader of a country in Europe: even if I know Spain's central government is bad, even if I am very sympathetic toward Cantalian, will I support them? Absolutely not. Because that's just bad politic, period. First, some countries in EC are already facing similar problem, they definitely don't want to light their own arse on fire. Secondly, incompetent or not Spain's government is still one in good standing international wise, it's not like they're oppressing people for decades or gazsing the citizen or something. I won't be suprise if there are some leaders out there look at Cantalia and think it's a rich boy's problem.

I honestly don't understand what Cantalian was trying to do with the referendum. It was unlike the case of the Scotland or Brexix referendum where political maneuver ensure that the government has to accept result even if they don't like it. I feel that they have this idea of they can just keep their money and everything will stay the same ... which I think they're finding out pretty quickly it won't. The only thing I can think of is they were trying to use it as a negotiation chip, and was caught by surprise how strong Spain react and things got out of hand. Because if they really thought they could get away with an independent status ... then they are either stupid or naive, or maybe both.

[pjknibbs]

Both the Scottish independence and Brexit referendums were actually set up by the government of the country, whereas this referendum was set up unilaterally by the Catalan government without the approval of the Spanish government. Can't help but wonder if the Catalan government could have got approval from the central government to hold the referendum if they'd been patient about it?

[korio]

Both the Scottish independence and Brexit referendums were actually set up by the government of the country, whereas this referendum was set up unilaterally by the Catalan government without the approval of the Spanish government. Can't help but wonder if the Catalan government could have got approval from the central government to hold the referendum if they'd been patient about it?

By our constitutional laws the Spain territory CAN'T by any reason be divided.

For doing a independence referendum legally here, they should before rework the constitution to allow it, thats is hard and tedious, so they went to the "fire the street" option.

And yes, what they wanted is to stop "paying spain" keep all their money and all the advantages and coverage of spain/EU, thats why the banks where the first ones to leave, if they go out of the EU they have nothing backing them and their loans so they go broke instantly (this is of course more complicated ).


What you dont see in the news are some of the points of the referendum, where the public workers (the people who works for the government itself) would be fired instantly if they dont disown their spanish citizenship and accept the new catalan citizenship.

Also, here on spain we have the "Seguridad Social" its a public fund that everyone in their working life contribute to so when you get older and cant work the government keeps paying you, also covers the healthcare for everyone, if they approve the independence everyone will loose instantly their contribution to spain and start at a blank state to contribute to the catalonia one, you need to contribute for almost 39 years to get a full retirement, so workers with 30-35 years and above will loose almost everything of their retirement.

[pjknibbs]

You could still hold a referendum *asking* if people want the right to break away from Spain without actually altering the constitution, though, so long as you make clear what you're asking--e.g. if enough people say "Yes, we totes want to leave Spain" then you might look at changing the constitution accordingly, but you can't make any guarantees.

[greypanther]

Spain moves to suspend autonomy

I begin to understand yet more, just what is meant by the curse: " May you live in interesting times. " It looks almost like someone has cursed the people of Catalonia.

I wonder what will happen next? I also hope any forum members from that region, ( if any, ) stay safe.

[korio]

Spain moves to suspend autonomy

I begin to understand yet more, just what is meant by the curse: " May you live in interesting times. " It looks almost like someone has cursed the people of Catalonia.

I wonder what will happen next? I also hope any forum members from that region, ( if any, ) stay safe.

The "funny" part is that their own politicians cursed themselves and they still dont realize it.

The only way they have to avoid the suspension of the autonomy is to do a new election, and they will not do it.

I think people is starting to realize that independence is not the golden egg their politicians sold to them, as its already punishing them in almost everything.

[greypanther]

independence is not the golden egg their politicians sold to them, as its already punishing them in almost everything.

From what my sister in Scotland is saying, there are many up there who are looking on at this and thinking: " There but for the grace of god, go we. "

Will there be a call for demonstrations then do you think Korio? I saw a report today on the news showing that local Catalonian police and National Spanish police were arguing, almost fighting. I cannot help wondering how close to violence it all is...

[korio]

independence is not the golden egg their politicians sold to them, as its already punishing them in almost everything.

From what my sister in Scotland is saying, there are many up there who are looking on at this and thinking: " There but for the grace of god, go we. "

Will there be a call for demonstrations then do you think Korio? I saw a report today on the news showing that local Catalonian police and National Spanish police were arguing, almost fighting. I cannot help wondering how close to violence it all is...

As a quick explanation, local and national police must follow the law, catalonia police acted influenced by the politics, not following the law so the national police where forced into play to do what they needed to do following the law.


In this referendum they did, i think there was around 2.2 million votes or so, catalonia has a population of around 7 million, and have in mind that the referendum was not regulated properly, people could vote all the times they wanted to, children could vote, i have seen even the votes boxed full of votes even before the start of the voting time.

Catalonia will suffer because of the ineptitude of their politicians and their inability to work for the people, not for them (just to be clear, i dont like neither our actual government), i just hope it doesnt escalate to an armed conflict. But as always, i think there is people in the shadow that want it, so we dont really know what will happen, for now everything is as calm as it could be given the circumstances and for now is just some kind of duel between politicians, we will see what happens next.

For now we have this Saturday an extraordinary meeting of our ministers to talk about suspending their autonomy and how to do it, we will see what happens from there.

[Santi]

So far, the presidents of ANC (Catalonia National Assembly) and Omnium Cultural are in preventive prison and being investigated together with the Operational boss of the Catalonian police for sedition. This relates to the siege of 19 hours of some members of the Guardia Civil and an assistant to a judge that were doing an investigation in the Catalonia economic hq.

Guardia Civil together with the Policia National are investigating the Mossos (Catalonian Police) for their (lack of) actions in stopping the referendum. And in a few cases, clashes with the Guardia Civil or National Police when they did have to act as they did not do so.

This Saturday the government will decide what parts of 155 will apply, but this will need to be approved by the Spanish Senate (talk is end of the month), so far the money is already under Government control as Catalonia is broke and under a bail out. Probably security forces and the creation of a provisional government with the task of organizing elections.

Saturday as well is the day for a massive concentration in Catalonia in defence of Independence, and pretty sure, the focus will be in asking Europe for mediation, so expect to see more banners in English than Catalan/Spanish.

Regarding risk of violence, there is pretty much none, the independent movement knows that any violence by their part will totally blow their chances of any progress. Same applies to the Spanish Government, already covering for the Mossos (Catalonian Police) to try and stop the illegal referendum did backfire.

Government is happy to let the Judiciary as another guarantor of the Spanish Constitution do their job and investigate those cases where the law has been broken.

[Santi]

Today while the Spanish Senate was debating the application of the article 155 of the Constitution. The Catalonian Parlament, with the absence of Partido Popular, Partido Socialista y Ciudadanos from the chamber because the procedure was deemed illegal as the Parlament legal team advised before the session. Voted for the declaration of Independence for Cataluña in the form of a Republic.

The creation of the Republic of Cataluña was approved with 70 votes saying yes, 10 saying no and 2 in blank. Missing are the 52 votes of those political parties that refused to take part because of the illegality of the process. We are missing 1 vote as there are 135 Parlament members.

This comes after a long week where a solution was in sight with the convocation of early elections for Cataluña.

A major factor for the way in what the declaration has been made is to try and avoid legal responsibilities for those involved. Catalonian President Carles Puigdemont has refused flatly to bear sole responsibility for the declaration of Independence, so shifted that to the Parlament, who bending the rules again and to avoid prosecution declared the vote to be secret.

Of course politicians fully committed to the Independence has now shifted the job of making it a reality and fight article 155 to the citizens of Cataluña, encouraging them to civil disobedience, especially those that work in civil services.

[Morkonan]

So, if Spain is declaring these votes illegal, is the Catalonian Parliment just voting in order to send a message?

I though Spain was going to suspend the Catalonian "government" and administer Catalonia itself.

It seems as if there are a lot of people voting for things, but there doesn't appear to be anyone voting on something that's... meaningful. Are both sides simply waiting for the other to make a move?

[Golden_Gonads]

So... This is for all intents and purposes, really a 'bloodless' Civil War? With the Catalan government betting the Spanish won't move in troops to restore order when it all goes tits up?

[Santi]

@Morkonan

At this point it is not sure the real motivation for the latest independence drive, was it to get more autonomy from the Spanish government or a real effort to proclaim a Catalonian Republic? We do not know.

@Golden_Gonads

Absolutely not, the Spanish army has no part to play in this. Applying article 155 of the Spanish constitution means that the central government will take over Cataluña institutions.

Say that you, as a member of the Catalonian government refuse to recognise the 155 article. The Spanish government can suspend your employment and wages, because Catalonia is under a bail out and all monies going out, have to be approved by the central government.

[greypanther]

the central government will take over Cataluña institutions.

That is the hope anyway eh? The Cataluña government has called for civil disobedience it was reported. The best laid plans of mice and men...

[Santi]

With elections called for the 21 December and with the campaign starting on the 5th of December, they pretty much only have to pay wages and organize the referendum within two months, something they can do without the Catalonian civil service.

They have destituted the Catalonia Government and dissolved a few organisms vital to the independence, like the Catalonian foreign office. Apart from that they will react to circumstances.

Question is what the Independence movement will do, will they organize a parallel elections or will run in the Central government ones? Of course we could go back to square one if they win the elections and decided to carry on with the independence process, or if they lose to boycott the new administration. But that means people putting their jobs on the line and will damage the local economy too, very difficult to gauge how much appetite for that there is.

[matthewfarmery]

The other thing is, if Catalonia does split from Spain, will they come out of the EU? As I have heard mixed reports on this. Some from Catalonia say that independence will not throw them out of the EU, but EU reps say that it will.

another thing to note is that a lot of industry etc has packed their bags from Barcelona, So things might go downhill for Catalonia if they do continue the independence route. Plus of cause the rest of Spain will struggle. This split I doubt will do well for either.

[Santi]

Yes they will go out of the EU, as a new nation they will have to apply to membership to the EU, that is the legal word regarding the EU and nations that want to join. Then as membership has to be approved by all current members of the EU, I honestly cannot see Spain voting yes for Catalonia to join the EU.

Regarding the economy, yes companies are moving out of Cataluña, but that is misleading, in reality they are just registering their companies in other parts of Spain as to preserve the legal framework they operate within, that is the Spanish legal and economic system, Spain Stock Market and Laws.

But you are right in terms that Spain economy will struggle, right now Spanish people are boycotting Catalan products, that is having a boomerang effect affecting producers in Spain that have commercial relations with Cataluña.

[matthewfarmery]

I do think if there is a split, then Spain will struggle without Catalonia, afterall it seems from the radio, that is where a lot of Spain money does come from. Also Spain suffered from a double dip recession. I think without that major source of money from Catalonia, Spain might head back into another one.

I got an intersecting analogy from the radio recently, concerning the EU. think of a pig-stile, you have several sows, and the rest been piglets. Without the UK, the EU will lose one sow, which means, Germany and France been the others. If Catalonia splits, then there goes half a sow. That milk will start to get pretty dry at some point.