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siddham
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Re: Trump

Post by siddham » Tue, 4. Dec 18, 12:29

In fact it has been Putin who halted the looting of the Russian economy that followed in the chaos of the dissolution of the USSR
Putin brought the oligarchs under control and even began re-nationalizing some of Russia's strategic resources
Putin restored order to the Russian economy and national pride to Russia - Russia is back on the world stage
Putin is a conservative nationalist and he is probably the most popular world leader today (among the Russians)
He is hated by the Western neoliberal globalist elites for doing all this; that's why Western media is full of anti-Russian and anti-Putin propaganda

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Re: Trump

Post by Usenko » Tue, 4. Dec 18, 13:47

siddham wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 12:29
In fact it has been Putin who halted the looting of the Russian economy that followed in the chaos of the dissolution of the USSR
Putin brought the oligarchs under control and even began re-nationalizing some of Russia's strategic resources
Putin restored order to the Russian economy and national pride to Russia - Russia is back on the world stage
Putin is a conservative nationalist and he is probably the most popular world leader today (among the Russians)
He is hated by the Western neoliberal globalist elites for doing all this; that's why Western media is full of anti-Russian and anti-Putin propaganda
I have to throw in here that if you are a big fan of freedom, then your will quite justifiably find Putin problematic at best.

Whether or not he's good for the economy of Russia, whether or not he's popular, he's pretty awful to anyone who disagrees with him. From my viewpoint, all those other things really don't matter a lot if they're achieved at the cost of the freedoms of his people.

No, he's not hated by the West for his successes. Frankly, if that was all there was to him, he'd probably be largely ignored. He's hated for his ethics, which are so bad that they're noticeable in a world containing Trump (and our own dreadful leaders in Australia).
Morkonan wrote:What really happened isn't as exciting. Putin flexed his left thigh during his morning ride on a flying bear, right after beating fifty Judo blackbelts, which he does upon rising every morning. (Not that Putin sleeps, it's just that he doesn't want to make others feel inadequate.)

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Re: Trump

Post by Bishop149 » Tue, 4. Dec 18, 15:00

siddham wrote:
Mon, 3. Dec 18, 17:33
But of course Trump would not be President Trump if that were true. Trump has enormous support in the US and around the world
Well he only needed to poll just under half of the cast vote to be elected, and given the turnout of ~62% that's equates just under a third of the US population.
Extrapolating to the global scale this works our as ~1.2% of humans alive today definitely think Trump might make a good president.

But none the less, this remains part of why I for one find the topic so hard to let go. It STAGGERS me that even 30% of US could look at Donald Trump, a man who:
- has made a career as a literal (albeit high end) con man.
- has managed to lose (a lot of) money running a casino.
- has bankrupted no less than 6 companies.
- would be substantially richer than he is today of he had just spent the last 5 decades playing golf.
- is by all accounts and complete a utter trashfire of a failure, just one who had the good fortune to be born rich.
and think. . . . . . . That guy would make a good President!

This has caused me a cognitive dissonance that remains unresolved after 2 sodding years . . . . mostly because the man himself keeps adding to it by being so transparently awful at his job.
Its doubly hard to process given the short shrift those very same people gave his predecessor.
I think a lot of the press of which you speak feels exactly the same and has essentially been engaged in an ongoing process of "Look at this! Still think he's any good?. . . . Really!? . . .Ok how about now? . . . You're kidding! . . . Look at this!!. . . Seriously, how far can he push this!! etc"
siddham wrote:
Mon, 3. Dec 18, 17:33
I see Trump and Brexit and the general rise in conservatism and nationalism and the alt-right etc as symptomatic of deep social unrest and dissatisfaction in the population to the deep structural changes being implemented at a global level by the neoliberal elites.
This is probably true but "the population" has picked entirely the wrong targets for their ire, whilst simultaneously handing control to the very people they should be lining up against the wall.
It's hard to think of a more perfect example of this than objecting to control by an "elite" by electing Donald Trump who then celebrates in his gold plated penthouse.
BugMeister wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 09:05
In the political arena Mr Trump possesses no talent whatsoever - in fact, he's as dumb as a rock.. :lol:
He's just dumb as a rock fullstop.
All his business ventures would have gone equally as well if he'd just made all his decisions by flipping a coin.
siddham wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 12:29
[Putin is great]
Ah but. . .
a) Putin is not dumb as a rock.
b) Putin has quite possibly made himself the richest man in the world in the process of all this. His actual wealth is very hard to assess because he ain't telling and has a whole state at his disposal to hide and funnel it, but only accounting for what CAN be proven he's worth at least $40 Billion, he makes Trump look like pauper.
He hasn't "halted the looting" or "controlled the oligarchs", he's simply combined the roles of both with government . . . . . and then made it all himself.
Trump would LOVE to be able to do this, this is why he admires Putin. He's trying his best but thankfully for America he's not even a tenth as smart as Putin and has the attention span of a gnat.
"Shoot for the Moon. If you miss, you'll end up co-orbiting the Sun alongside Earth, living out your days alone in the void within sight of the lush, welcoming home you left behind." - XKCD

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Re: Trump

Post by Observe » Tue, 4. Dec 18, 18:57

Bishop149 wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 15:00
This has caused me a cognitive dissonance that remains unresolved after 2 sodding years . . . . mostly because the man himself keeps adding to it by being so transparently awful at his job.
Most of the things you list about Trump, are simply overlooked by many Republicans. To them, Trump represents the way they would like to see the country go. They see a world as one where the end justifies the means.

I'm sure many of his supporters would love Trump to be a more well-mannered President, who espoused the niceties of decency. On the other hand, there are those who love Trump for his crudeness and see it as a way to offend high-minded liberals.

In any case, Trump will in all likelihood get a second term, because a significant percentage of Americans are in favor of his policies - if not his personality.

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Re: Trump

Post by siddham » Tue, 4. Dec 18, 20:24

Trump did not become a multi-billionaire because he is dumb or accidentally or because he got a good start from his dad.
There are plenty of good reasons to criticize or dislike Donald Trump but those are not credible at all imo.
As to Putin's policies and ethics I disagree completely; I do not believe the Western media propaganda about Russia or Putin.
I know from your replies there will no point in me pursuing this discussion so I will leave you to it gentlemen and wish you all well
All the best

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Re: Trump

Post by Bishop149 » Tue, 4. Dec 18, 22:21

siddham wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 20:24
Trump did not become a multi-billionaire . . . . . . . because he got a good start from his dad.
Nope, that is EXACTLY where Trumps wealth came from.
As I alluded to earlier he would be richer than he is today if he had simply taken the money his dad left him, invested it in the stockmarket (in the safest possible way) and then buggered off to spend his life playing golf.
Zero business acumen required, by applying his he has made himself poorer . . . . and has only avoided complete personal bankruptcy thanks to the grace and favor of the government.

None of this requires you to accept any “Western media propaganda” it’s all a matter of public record you can go look out yourself, or if that’s not good enough for you either, you can also get it from the horses mouth. Trump himself has talked about the experience of his near ruin if you wish.
siddham wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 20:24
As to Putin's policies and ethics I disagree completely; I do not believe the Western media propaganda about Russia or Putin.
I know from your replies there will no point in me pursuing this discussion so I will leave you to it gentlemen and wish you all well
All the best
Ok, if you'd rather get your information from Putin's propaganda machine that your prerogative, good luck with that.
"Shoot for the Moon. If you miss, you'll end up co-orbiting the Sun alongside Earth, living out your days alone in the void within sight of the lush, welcoming home you left behind." - XKCD

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BugMeister
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Re: Trump

Post by BugMeister » Wed, 5. Dec 18, 00:34

siddham wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 20:24
Trump did not become a multi-billionaire because he is dumb or accidentally or because he got a good start from his dad.
There are plenty of good reasons to criticize or dislike Donald Trump but those are not credible at all imo.
As to Putin's policies and ethics I disagree completely; I do not believe the Western media propaganda about Russia or Putin.
I know from your replies there will no point in me pursuing this discussion so I will leave you to it gentlemen and wish you all well
All the best
- Well, that's Western media propaganda for ya'..

from September 2017..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bo0koTYc4zg

- more popcorn..!! :lol:
- the whole universe is running in BETA mode - we're working on it.. beep..!! :D :thumb_up:

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Re: Trump

Post by Mightysword » Wed, 5. Dec 18, 05:26

Bishop149 wrote:
Tue, 4. Dec 18, 22:21
Nope, that is EXACTLY where Trumps wealth came from.
Not an untrue statement, but also a very shallow statement.
As I alluded to earlier he would be richer than he is today if he had simply taken the money his dad left him, invested it in the stockmarket (in the safest possible way) and then buggered off to spend his life playing golf.
Zero business acumen required, by applying his he has made himself poorer . . . . and has only avoided complete personal bankruptcy thanks to the grace and favor of the government.
And objectively true statement (abeit debatable, no one really know how much Trump has, so any # to # comparision is guesstimate at best). Yet also one devoid of context of not only things about Trump, but also about how life and universe operate in general. You must really love this line of argument since I think in the last 2 years, you throw it out once a while almost exclusively. And each time it irk me a little more, so here is my attempt to counter it, call it a 2 years worth of rebuttance, one that will be done with context and time line. :)

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The art of making deal. Let's start with this book. The criticisms that I have seen in the past years from various people kinda make me wonder if they actually know when it was published, and the context behind its success.

- 1971: Trump inherited his father real estate company: Elizabeth Trump & Son. Until this point, it's best to describe the company is simply a mid-size housing estate company that focus on middle class apartment. Not exactly small, but still nothing special, a dime in a dozens that you can find anywhere. Trump renamed it to Trump Organization and set his sight much higher than that: premium estates in upscale Mahattan. Here is an example: Grand-Hyatt. Trump bought it in (formerly Commodore Hotel) the 70s when New York was on the verse of bankruptcy. Remodeled it, and reopen it in 1980.

- 1983: the first 68-stories Trump tower is open in Manhattan. The significant wasn't just about the build, but the timing. Remember these are the time when the babyboomers are maturing and entering the economy. To them, Trump was the man and the inspiration.

- 1986: a lot of people seem to think Trump had never ruffled with politic before ... it just proves they didn't do their homework. He got into a fight with the New York mayor of the time Ed Koch - in a manner that's not unlike what he's doing now with other politician (aka visceral war of words). In that argument, he offered to renovate Wollman Rink in Central Park which was a city project that started in 1980 ... and still went nowhere in 1986 (so 6 years if my math checks out). Trump finished the project in 3 months, well under the city budget as a bonus, and leave little wanting for the quality. He made his point about government in-effeciency, and make himself look good in the process. And I should add, just like what he's doing now, the entire process was done in stunning publicity at the time.

- 1987: so tell me, in this time line, is it so difficult to see why when The art of making deals was released in 87, it remained as a top seller for 52 weeks? Do you think the book is popular because people are stupid who can't see pass a con man? Certain Trump inheriting the company give him a head start, but that does not take away the credit of what he had done with it. For you English people assuming you watch football, while Trump may not have to start from the bottom with a Sunday league, his achievement in this period is still akin to taking a Championship side and make it into a Champion League contender. Which is btw, what we call the Trump Organization these day.

Here is a question for you: Had Elon Musk released a book call The Art of a successful tech start up a few years ago when both SpaceX and Tesla were at their peak, how do you think that book would have sale? Hell extra question, even seeing one of them (Tesla) is struggling now, how well the book would still sale if released? :P

This is an appropriate quote to close down this first part: “The more predictable the business, the more valuable it is.”. Kinda forbearing to his presidential campaign, no? Again, the people who claims Trump is unpredictable, it's not because it's hard to understand him, you just never studied him.

Also I believe it helps to explain Trump's love-hate relationship with the city of New York. If you are a millennia (aka the young) you probably don't want anything to do with Trump. But if you are a babyboomer (aka the old), you probably look more favorably about him. And the reason would have nothing to do with the fact Trump is a arshole (in various ways), people may just remember him as an inspiration growing up. ;)

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After success, here come failures.

- 1987: he funneled his new found wealth into buying out the Taj Mahal Casino. Which proved costly to him
- 1989: he was swimming in dept.
- 1991: bankruptcy was looming, forcing Trump to sell half of his ownership in the casino. Didn't deter his ambition on it though.

So what do you see here? An incompetent fool losing his plot, or just a down cycle of a typical business man making a bad decision?

Here is a question for you: SpaceX is having great success, breaking record one another while Tesla came close to bankruptcy just a few months ago. Does this make Elon Musk neither a genuis or a fool?

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
After the sun goes down, it will rise again
- 1995: Trump made a life saving deal, a 70-story tower Bank of Manhattan. For under 10mil, he later used it for a 160mil loan that he put toward other investment. In 2016, that building is priced at 260mil.
- 1996: Trump business bought back Taj Mahal. To give you an ideal about its status, here is an exerpt from Wiki
Trump's Taj Mahal casino was "the world's largest, most flamboyant casino" and Trump took on an "enormous amount of debt" to launch it.[31] During eighteen months after its April 2, 1990 opening,[23] when the Casino was on the verge of bankruptcy, it became the "preferred gambling spot for Russian mobsters living in Brooklyn, according to federal investigators who tracked organized crime in New York City".[31]
The Taj Mahal was the highest grossing casino in the city until the opening of The Borgata in 2003. The Chairman Tower opened in 2008, bringing the complex to over 2,000 rooms.
In 2013, the Taj Mahal opened the nation's first casino strip club, featuring scantily clad dancers
Here are some quote I think are appropriated for this time line:

"Get going. Move forward. Aim High. Plan a takeoff. Don't just sit on the runway and hope someone will come along and push the airplane. It simply won't happen. Change your attitude and gain some altitude. Believe me, you'll love it up here.”

“What separates the winners from the losers is how a person reacts to each new twist of fate.”

“Remember there’s no such thing as an unrealistic goal, just unrealistic time frames"


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
But what about his freebie (inheritance)?

- In 1999: his farther died, leaving behind an estate worth between 350-400mil. Trump share of this is unknow (he certainly didn't get all of it, and that before we talk about tax). Guestimate put it somewhere in the 300' over the course of Trump life time
- In 2003: Trump started the "Apprentice show". To put it in respective, he made 250mil from this show alone in 12 years. So yes, it's true Trump did received a sizable inheritance, but the timing (his empire is already established) and the amount (nothing substantial comparing to his total revenue), it's a stretch to claim it has any meaningful or significant impact on Trump's fortune.

Now let's go back to this quote:
As I alluded to earlier he would be richer than he is today if he had simply taken the money his dad left him, invested it in the stockmarket (in the safest possible way) and then buggered off to spend his life playing golf.
Zero business acumen required, by applying his he has made himself poorer . . . . and has only avoided complete personal bankruptcy thanks to the grace and favor of the government.
And why did I call it shallow. Two reasons:

- First reason: even assume the quote above is quantitative correct (which I seriously doubt for reasons stated at the beginning), it lacks one important context of money flow. Let's say two person A and B both inherited 500million dollar. A did nothing to it, just let it sit in the bank, 20 years later he has 600mil by the virtually of doing nothing. B used it to run businesses, and somewhere a long the way he lost 400millions, but at the end, he also made 500million to equal the 600mil A has.

Here is a question for you: between A and B, who is more resourceful?

I don't think people forget the fact B lost 400millions, but when they look at B, they also see someone who is capable of making 500millions. Comparing to looking A, you see ... nothing. I beleive I don't need to explain how important that difference is when you looking at a 'candidate'? The reason why I said it's not just lacking a perspective about Trump but also about how the world work. Why do you think a famous executive, sometime still end up tanking a company, still manage to get a golden parachute and a job offer right after? Because as long as people perceive these people had a history of sucess, they are still better than the people who never lose simply because they never play.

- Second reason: if Trump simply sit on simple stock like you said, even if the amount would be the same, he would only have something equivalent to cash. What he has now is mostly measured in how much his 'business' is worth. Again. I don't think there is a need to explain there are many significant differences between the two cases even if they are quantitatively the same. ;)

Here is an appropriate quote:
Success comes from failure, not from memorizing the right answers


Kinda explain the habit of going off script in a certain president? You probably can guess by now, but all the quotes in this post came from Trump at one point or another. I think they're pretty telling, and Trump as a person hasn't really changed. So why people say he's unpredictable, why do people said the 2016 came out of nowhere? It's not like the man himself hasn't issued amber warning? I'll close this post with another famous quote, one that most will recognize.

If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles. If you know yourself but not the enemy, for every victory gained you will also suffer a defeat. If you know neither the enemy nor yourself, you will succumb in every battle - Sun Tzu.

Trump is only unpredictable because you don't know him. And that is a result of either you believe there is nothing worth knowing about him, or your knowledge of him is extremely simplified by the bias you carry, just like the quotes I used to start this post. :)
Reading comprehension is hard.
Reading with prejudice makes comprehension harder.

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Re: Trump

Post by muppetts » Wed, 5. Dec 18, 09:04

https://www.gq.com/story/eat-the-rich-part-the-infinity

Trump lied about his money from day one, that stupid story about turning 1 million into a billion is total fiction and shows what a joke he is.

Trump last year 'I have passed a large increase for the military 716 billion, I said it had to be done!'
Trump at G20, 'spending 716 billion on the military is CRAZY!'

Anyone who defends trump is a moron who dreams of putting on a brown shirt and stomping around the street beating up minorities, trump is hitler 15 years before he grabbed power, look at America now and it answers the question on how the Nazi's came to power, because lots of people are willing to embrace hate and use the excuse of their own failings to blame others.
VURT The only Feathers to Fly With......

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Re: Trump

Post by Bishop149 » Wed, 5. Dec 18, 15:36

@Mightysword

Ok, the Trump would be richer if he'd sat on his ass line is derived from the following:

First things first. No one knows either
1) Exactly how much Trump inherited.
2) Exactly how much he is worth today.
Because as we well know he is very tight lipped about his finances, as per standard rich person practice. We all know why. :roll:

In regard to 1) however a certain amount is public record, and we can be most sure about his worth in the early days when he ran a more legitimate business (that was essentially his fathers) and actually DID make a few decent deals (well, only one of any significance) which were all mostly above board. From this period we have the best data and it suggests that at around 1982 he was worth ~£200 million. After this he starts to drag everything into the murk.
As for 2) we KNOW he lies as a matter of routine, if nothing else the last 2 years have taught us that. He claims to be worth $10 billion, but various entities that have investigated his finances put their estimates of his wealth today at between $3-5 billion. I know which figure I believe to be more accurate.

The rest is maths, you could do it yourself but I wouldn't suggest it. It requires that you learn more details about the business of stockbroking than I at least cared to.
The key point is the degree of leveraging applied to the portfolio, but given that Trump is clearly not adverse to debt (having spent much of his life in the red. . . . we'll come to this later) it's not unreasonable to assume he wouldn't have baulked at that practice the way you or I might. For the likes of us our lives tend to get harder when we are in debt, but this does not apply to the ultra rich, even at his nadir Trump was limited to living on $450,000 a month, how traumatic for him. :roll:
The upshot is that if he'd invested that $200 million in the S&P500, hired a decent stockbroker and followed "standard stock practices for people with $200 million" then both his cash and other assets would be worth far more than even what Trump himself claims he's worth, in total somewhere around the $13 billion mark. If he'd played it safe and leveraged far less than was allowed, he'd still be up around $5 billion.

I don't think it's unfair to define this growth as a baseline of business acumen. It is the growth that can be achieved by making a small number of good decisions but that requires no special insight, just a modicum of common sense and a willingness to take advice. I have no hesitation is claiming myself capable of this and I would expect anyone who wants to go around calling themselves a "good businessman" to be capable of exceeding that performance.

Right ok, two things that in your analysis of Trumps history you have neglected to mention.
1) All that meteoric growth in the 80s that you take as evidence of Trumps good business sense. . . . . was driven by the acquisition of debt, almost all of it, and as such it was the DIRECT cause of his near bankruptcy around 1990. At best his "success" could be characterised as merely the setting up of his failure. They CERTAINLY were not evidence of "good deals", rather quite the opposite . . . . although by the time this became apparent to all he'd already sold his books, right? :roll:
2) People like Trump are simply not permitted to fail. In 1990 that should of been it, end of the Trump empire and if he was lucky he might have been allowed to keep an couple of million and avoid prison. But people with as much debt as Trump are not allowed to go just broke, his creditors (including the US government) all decided it would be too costly for them to simply foreclose on all his debts. Instead they essentially let him keep a proportion of his stuff and then put him on a extremely short leash until they could do the work required to minimise their exposure.
He was handed both a literal and figurative get out jail free card.
You could argue I suppose that Trump might have been well aware of this, and it all factored into his business strategy, but personally I think that would be an incredibly generous interpretation.

As for you example, no I do not think the person unable to manage or leverage their debts without bankrupting themselves in the process and relying on a bailout is the person on which to place your bets.
"Shoot for the Moon. If you miss, you'll end up co-orbiting the Sun alongside Earth, living out your days alone in the void within sight of the lush, welcoming home you left behind." - XKCD

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Re: Trump

Post by Masterbagger » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 02:32

muppetts wrote:
Wed, 5. Dec 18, 09:04


Anyone who defends trump is a moron who dreams of putting on a brown shirt and stomping around the street beating up minorities, trump is hitler 15 years before he grabbed power, look at America now and it answers the question on how the Nazi's came to power, because lots of people are willing to embrace hate and use the excuse of their own failings to blame others.
Definitely some people embracing hate up in here.
Who made that man a gunner?

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Re: Trump

Post by Mightysword » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 03:04

@Bishop: again, it's not even about what you say is right or wrong, but it has so much generalization and hand-wavering conjectures that it servers very little purpose in making a point. Basically, it serves as a way to cherry pick some detail and contrusct to push certain narrative, but it has little merit in any other purpose ignoring many common sense and time line context. I'll be specific about a few points:
All that meteoric growth in the 80s that you take as evidence of Trumps good business sense. . . . . was driven by the acquisition of debt, almost all of it, and as such it was the DIRECT cause of his near bankruptcy around 1990. At best his "success" could be characterised as merely the setting up of his failure. They CERTAINLY were not evidence of "good deals", rather quite the opposite . . . . although by the time this became apparent to all he'd already sold his books, right?
This paragraph contains the following problems:

- It does have some fact, but the fact mentioned is the same kind of fact claiming "the sky is blue". "Was driven by the acquisition of debt", that is true, but so what? You literally described pretty much how 99% of real estate companies, and that 1% is just throwing the courtesy to entities who can run this business with cash in hand that I had NEVER heard about. The context here is this:

+ The city of New York had it own depression and real estate crisis in the 70' with the city itself on the verge of bankruptcy, Trump rise in the 80' was basically how he was able to grab this opportunity. Do you know why I used the Grand Hyatt in my example? Because it's rather symbolic. It was the first project that Trump did with his company, you can call it the beginning of Trump. That hotel in 1980 received a 40 years tax break ... yes you read that right, 40 years, that means that tax break is actually still in effect even today. So guess what, today for a business that sit on one of the hottest land on the planet, generating more than 30mil a year in profit and has been doing so tax free for a couple more years. You want to tell me he doesn't know how to make a good deal for himself ... please try again. ;)

+ And like I said, this is hardly something to criticize him, it happens regularly. During the last recession there were many houses in Denver (where I live) is up for sale. I bought mine when the market bottom out. My rent was 600$/month for a 2 bedroom when I bought my house, and I bought one on a 400$ mortgage. Fast forward 8 years later, the rent in my area is now around 1800$/month, and I received weekly offer for my house at 3-4x the price I bought it for. During that time, there was a lot of people trying to round up as many house as they could, those people are probably a lot more wealthy now ... and I bet you they did it on credit. Now if they go and dump that new wealth into some fail venture, then they made a bad decision, but that doesn't mean their land grabs in 2009 was a bad idea. Tbh I thought about doing it too back then, reason I didn't? I wasn't brave enough.

- Saying his deal in 70'-80' success paved the way for his near bankruptcy in the 1990 is again a very misguided thought pattern. You probably can argue it's somewhat is true, because without the success he had in the 80s, Trump wouldn't have enough resource to pour into the Taj Mahal Casino. The venture proved far more costly then Trump anticipated, but that one decision certainly did not make all of his venture prior to that points failure. That would be like saying because Tesla was on the verse of bankruptcy, everything Elon Musk had done in his life are just mere precursors to this one failure. :roll:
The key point is the degree of leveraging applied to the portfolio, but given that Trump is clearly not adverse to debt (having spent much of his life in the red. . . . we'll come to this later) it's not unreasonable to assume he wouldn't have baulked at that practice the way you or I might. For the likes of us our lives tend to get harder when we are in debt, but this does not apply to the ultra rich, even at his nadir Trump was limited to living on $450,000 a month, how traumatic for him.
A sentimental filled paragraph that I'm not even sure what you're trying to say. I'll reply it with one thing though: while I'm not rich, I hold no ill thought or contempt to those who are. If someone can ride a 30mil car and eat a 3000 meal every day ... that's not my business. ;)
The rest is maths, you could do it yourself but I wouldn't suggest it. It requires that you learn more details about the business of stockbroking than I at least cared to ...

The upshot is that if he'd invested that $200 million in the S&P500, hired a decent stockbroker and followed "standard stock practices for people with $200 million" then both his cash and other assets would be worth far more than even what Trump himself claims he's worth, in total somewhere around the $13 billion mark. If he'd played it safe and leveraged far less than was allowed, he'd still be up around $5 billion.
Oh but I insist, please show me the math. Because I want to see if this math you're referring to is anything different than the math that had pretty much put every single pension funds on the planet into insolvency. Like, seriously, if you believe you can accurate math out with certainty how one fortune will turn out and tie it to the stock market over the course of 40 years ... I think you should be offered 10 digits salary for whoever gonna hire you. I remember when you first mention this couple years ago, I actually tried to do a little fact check, and I ran into a few articles that mention something similar to your story. I don't know if they were your source, but I looked at the number and summary dismissed them. I found them even more worthless then the reports by our OMB and CBO offices, which pretty much had given the wrong estimation on every single items for years. :roll:

While I'm no accountant I am a statistician by trade, and I said this before: with the same data set I can use statistical procedure to produce 2 set of numbers that completely contradict each other and give opposite interpretation ... and 90% of the readers wouldn't have a clue what is the difference. The question is: which narrative you would prefer? :P

The rest of your posts seem to be mostly a personal rant. And again, I don't say your point is invalid, or you don't have the right to be angry because you disagree on how thigns goes. I'm just saying within the context of this discussion, it's literally a non-story to direct those sentiment at Trump, he's simply following the law of universe, you just happen not liking that law. I'll give you a few examples:

- Couple years ago Apple decided to raise bond (aka taking in depth) to expand and maintain their operation in the US. Do you think because they were short on cash? Nope, they have truck ton of money oversea, however they refuse to bring those money back into the US? Reason? Because they don't want to pay tax on those money. The reason why the tax-code was a hot topic in the last election, part of it because politician were trying to figure how they can convince companies like Apple to bring those money in. Btw, take a guess who is one of the most beloved company in the US? :roll:

- That 40 years tax break Trump got for his hotel? If that makes you angry, I don't recommend you to look at the deal companies were getting to build facilities in the US. Warning: look at the offers Amazon received for the new headquarter may cause you having a heart attack.
I don't think it's unfair to define this growth as a baseline of business acumen. It is the growth that can be achieved by making a small number of good decisions but that requires no special insight,
It is not, but it is unwise to use it as the ONLY metric to measure it, which you seems to do. Like I said, between a man who have 500mil in cash, a man who has a piece of land value at 500mil, and a man who has a functioning business worth 500mil ... there is a gigantic different between them. :P

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And lastly, here is a an example of why you should never believe in absolute in a narrative because it aligned with you. Even if it involves math, make sure it is YOUR math and not the math you are shown. The very first teacher who lied to you was probably your math teacher.

- A few years ago GE made a big slash on the news being accused of while it's profitable, it had used various strategy of paying no tax. Senator Warren (yes, THAT Warren) had this in her ad:

“Today, Washington lets big corporations like GE pay nothing – zero – in taxes, while kids are left drowning in debt to get an education. This isn’t about economics; it’s about our values.”

- Did that tussle your heartstrings, making you feel enrage? There is a grain of truth in that, as in pretty much most companies in the US do everything they can to reduce or avoid tax (legally). But once you get down the detail though, then that statement is frankly at best, a misguided lie and at worst, just politician at their best. In away, dive deep enough into the context and it has about as much as substain as your 2 claims about Trump. ;)
Because as we well know he is very tight lipped about his finances, as per standard rich person practice. We all know why.
Oh I'm sure I do, but I'm not sure it's the same reason you have in mind. Because you know what, if I'm rich and running business, you can bet that my lip will be just as tied. :)
Last edited by Mightysword on Thu, 6. Dec 18, 04:09, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump

Post by Mightysword » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 03:09

muppetts wrote:
Wed, 5. Dec 18, 09:04

- Anyone who defends trump is a moron
- who dreams of putting on a brown shirt and stomping around the street beating up minorities
- trump is hitler 15 years before he grabbed power,
- look at America now and it answers the question on how the Nazi's came to power,

----> because lots of people are willing to embrace hate and use the excuse of their own failings to blame others.
Well, I'll response to this gem by suggesting two courses or action:

+ look at a mirror and see if you can see your own reflection in there.
or
+ look up the definition of the word 'irony' in a dictionary.

Perhaps, it is wiser to do both. :wink:
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Re: Trump

Post by BugMeister » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 05:03

- actually it might be better to do neither..
- after all, Trump is such a kind and understanding man..

- and he has all the right (bigly) words..
- and his champion, the laughing horse Giuliani :lol:
- the whole universe is running in BETA mode - we're working on it.. beep..!! :D :thumb_up:

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Re: Trump

Post by Bishop149 » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 11:03

Mightysword wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 03:04
It does have some fact, but the fact mentioned is the same kind of fact claiming "the sky is blue". "Was driven by the acquisition of debt", that is true, but so what? You literally described pretty much how 99% of real estate companies, and that 1% is just throwing the courtesy to entities who can run this business with cash in hand that I had NEVER heard about.
Debt is a part of business sure, and for the ultra rich is often used to a frankly ridiculous degree. It is also basically what leveraging is that I was discussing earlier. But being a "good businessmen" means you can successfully manage it, balance your books, Trump did not he was staggeringly reckless and it crippled him. It really is quite simple.
Mightysword wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 03:04
That would be like saying because Tesla was on the verse of bankruptcy, everything Elon Musk had done in his life are just mere precursors to this one failure. :roll:
Well yes . . . why is this so hard for you to grasp? You're happy to judge someone over the short term with no regard for the eventual consequences?
I could become rich overnight, I could go out a mortgage every asset I own to the hilt, get 10 credit cards and max them out. . . . I could live the high life for a few years and then be completely screwed when it all came home to roost. Would you only look at those couple of years and say "Wow, that Bishop sure knows how to live!"
I sure hope the American public agrees with you because believe me, all Trumps current meddling in the economy to boost corporate profits WILL have long term consequences.

Brief aside, seeing as you keep bringing up Elon Musk he is quite a good parallel. IMO I think its likely he will also eventually fail as well (not as hard as Trump though). His businesses are not sustainable, he's doing some very cool stuff but his desire for this kudos seems to frequently override good business sense. Tesla is essentially failing because he threw away his technical lead by continuing to focus on high end sports cars, giving the traditional manufacturers the time to catch up and begin to refocus the same tech into more traditionally profitable areas, they then have a firm basis on which to steal his USP he has nothing to hit back with.
SpaceX might do better because there is little pre-existing competition, but that won't last for long, NOW is the time for him to refocus from innovation to profitability so he can keep his dominant position. If he doesn't and instead focuses on his latest "cool project" then SpaceX will go the same way as Tesla as some new company pops up, steals all his tricks and then outcompetes him. Lets see what happens
A sentimental filled paragraph that I'm not even sure what you're trying to say. I'll reply it with one thing though: while I'm not rich, I hold no ill thought or contempt to those who are. If someone can ride a 30mil car and eat a 3000 meal every day ... that's not my business. ;)
Life just being different for the rich is a plain fact. if a stockbroker turned round to you and said, "Hey, how about we put 80% of what your worth at a substantial risk of loss?" you would no doubt respond with "No way, what if you lose? If I'm reduced to 20% of my worth my standard of living will suffer dramatically!" This is not true for people like Trump firstly there are all sorts of fancy economic tricks that exist to minimise the exposure of the rich from the debts the accrue that simply don't exist for the rest of us. To your or I the idea of having more debt that we are actually worth might be rather terrifying, but for the rich periods of this are entirely standard, it's not nearly as risky for them as it would be for us*.
This by the way makes it all the more "impressive" that Trump managed to bankrupt himself, he had a whole economic system designed to protect him and still managed to over reach it.
Secondly even if they lose "it all" they are still by any normal persons standard "rich", all that really suffers is their ego. Trump himself has said that money is little more than a scorecard to him, he's never had to experience it as anything else, a truly staggering degree of privilege.
As for it not being your business, well it is, in reality it's your money they're spending they didn't and couldn't "earn" it. But hey, your prerogative.
Oh but I insist, please show me the math. Because I want to see if this math you're referring to is anything different than the math that had pretty much put every single pension funds on the planet into insolvency. Like, seriously, if you believe you can accurate math out with certainty how one fortune will turn out and tie it to the stock market over the course of 40 years ... I think you should be offered 10 digits salary for whoever gonna hire you. I remember when you first mention this couple years ago, I actually tried to do a little fact check, and I ran into a few articles that mention something similar to your story. I don't know if they were your source, but I looked at the number and summary dismissed them. I found them even more worthless then the reports by our OMB and CBO offices, which pretty much had given the wrong estimation on every single items for years. :roll:
This tells me there is no reason trying to explain it to you, you have already looked up the data of people far more qualified than I am to explain this and rejected it for your own reasons.
Yes, it seems extraordinary I thought so too which is why I went and did the math for myself. Leveraging really is the key, it is essentially borrowing, expanding the money you actually have to play with to increase the returns (to simplify, its WAAAAY more complicated than that) and like most financial things the more money you have to begin with the more effective it is.
That 40 years tax break Trump got for his hotel? If that makes you angry, I don't recommend you to look at the deal companies were getting to build facilities in the US. Warning: look at the offers Amazon received for the new headquarter may cause you having a heart attack.
Both can make me angry, both are examples of literally one rule for the rich and another for the rest of us. And tax is merely one example.
It is not, but it is unwise to use it as the ONLY metric to measure it, which you seems to do. Like I said, between a man who have 500mil in cash, a man who has a piece of land value at 500mil, and a man who has a functioning business worth 500mil ... there is a gigantic different between them. :P
Going bankrupt is generally a pretty good sign your business DID NOT function. Again I don't know why this is so hard to grasp.

The really difference in your example is to do with assessments of your own competence, take the examples below
1) I have inherited a lot of money and correctly assess that I do not have the head for business, I give my money to a wealth management firm to invest and they make me a lot of money.
2) I have inherited a lot of money and correctly assess that I would be good in business, I start one and make a lot of money.
3) I have inherited a lot of money and incorrectly assess that I would be good in business, I start one and lose all my money.
You example compares 1) and 2) both are of merit, both had the good sense to play to their strengths . . . . Trump is 3) his assessment of his own competence is at odds with reality.
It's not a hard choice.

*BTW essentially how all this "minimising of exposure" works is to simply do some financial slight of hand shift the exposure somewhere else, and guess where that "somewhere else" usually is. . . . . . that's right, on the other 99% of us.
This is, in a nutshell, often why economic crashes happen.
"Shoot for the Moon. If you miss, you'll end up co-orbiting the Sun alongside Earth, living out your days alone in the void within sight of the lush, welcoming home you left behind." - XKCD

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Re: Trump

Post by Mightysword » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 16:31

Bishop149 wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 11:03
Debt is a part of business sure, and for the ultra rich is often used to a frankly ridiculous degree. It is also basically what leveraging is that I was discussing earlier. But being a "good businessmen" means you can successfully manage it, balance your books, Trump did not he was staggeringly reckless and it crippled him. It really is quite simple.
And ... are Trump cripple now financially wise?
Mightysword wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 03:04
That would be like saying because Tesla was on the verse of bankruptcy, everything Elon Musk had done in his life are just mere precursors to this one failure. :roll:
Well yes . . . why is this so hard for you to grasp? You're happy to judge someone over the short term with no regard for the eventual consequences?
I could become rich overnight, I could go out a mortgage every asset I own to the hilt, get 10 credit cards and max them out. . . . I could live the high life for a few years and then be completely screwed when it all came home to roost. Would you only look at those couple of years and say "Wow, that Bishop sure knows how to live!"
Don't you see the irony in what you're trying to say? You're accusing me of being happy to judge someone over short term, yet it IS you that are guilty of that. You are focusing in just ONE specific time frame in the late 80' and early 90' that Trump was dancing around bankruptcy to indite judgement on him. It is ME who judging him over the long term, from the beginning when he worked in his father real estate company at 22, to when he took charge of it and found Trump organization 3 years later, to now when he's 72 years old sitting of a large business empire with a diverse porfollio. There are up and down, but again, if you want to convince people he's not a successful then you are being outright dishonest, much in the way when Warren claimed GE pay -zero- tax.

Oh, and that hyperbolic example you just used, don't bother. I know a lot of people live like that, in fact a lot of American live like that, including many who riches and famous. They tend to end up actually bankruptcing and being on the street, they don't end up like Trump. ;)

Brief aside, seeing as you keep bringing up Elon Musk he is quite a good parallel. IMO I think its likely he will also eventually fail as well (not as hard as Trump though). His businesses are not sustainable, he's doing some very cool stuff but his desire for this kudos seems to frequently override good business sense.
So you seems to think "good business" is defined as being never suffering set back and failure. Well, I think most people will disagree with you, especially Trump. After all he said: Success comes from failure, not from memorizing the right answers.
Life just being different for the rich is a plain fact.
Oh I know. I'm not rich now, but I used to be. 3 generations ago we were part of the aristocrat (my great grand parents), 2 generation ago we we part of the olingard (my grand parents), the previous generation we were part of economical elite (my mothers). It's my generation (aka me) that decided to give up that to come to the US and restart from zero (aka becoming poor). Missed that life? No. But neither I hold contempt about it, I have seen the other side of that life. The bigger the ship, the stronger the wave, it's not just about money. ;)

See, it's a mentality thing. It's not just my life, but my culture teach us to never hold contempt to the people above us, but to look at those people and propel ourselves to their place. There is a reason for someone who came to the US in 2003 empty hand to live in a slump, going to the worst school in the district, to get a BS 6 years later, buy a house in 2009, receive the first MS 3 years later, a second MS 2 years later, and finally went above the nation median income a year ago. All of that was achieved with no special help, and without a home-field advantage. I'll give you a hint, that was achieved by not complaining about the problems, but by gritting the teeth to become part of what you so call "problems". :sceptic:
As for it not being your business, well it is, in reality it's your money they're spending they didn't and couldn't "earn" it. But hey, your prerogative.
My tax money is being used to take care of some drunkards who never take charge of their life. My tax money is being used to buy weapons to bomb innocent in another country. My tax money are being used to pay salary to a bunch of politician who lying through their teeth everyday. So yes, you can be quite sure that bailing out business is the the least ineffective usage of tax money.
This tells me there is no reason trying to explain it to you, you have already looked up the data of people far more qualified than I am to explain this and rejected it for your own reasons.
And that reason being they have been historically proven to be incorrect, repeatly, and have not even ONE good example to their grace. So if these people who are more qualified than you, who probably have a better data set to work with then you and still can't do their job .... give me one reason why me or anyone should trust your model/calculation aside from just agreeing with the narrative in principle? ;)
Both can make me angry, both are examples of literally one rule for the rich and another for the rest of us. And tax is merely one example.
And be angry away, that is your right. Doesn't change the fact that's how life work though, or the life as we know it. :P
Trump is 3) his assessment of his own competence is at odds with reality.
It's not a hard choice.
He's sitting on a a business empire that ranging from 5-10bil depending on who you trust. That is your reality.
This is, in a nutshell, often why economic crashes happen.
Just like life. If you are able to come up with an economic theory that can make the world economy stay healthy eternally, not only I believe you should be paid 10 digits salary, I believe you should be enshrined and elevated to godhood. That is why I said why your argument isn't really about right or wrong, it just lack substance mixing with a bit of non-story. Most of your accusation about Trump about this is akin to accusing the sky being blue, and you just happens to hate the color blue. :wink:
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Re: Trump

Post by BugMeister » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 21:13

- that's complete rubbish, and you know it..
- the whole universe is running in BETA mode - we're working on it.. beep..!! :D :thumb_up:

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Re: Trump

Post by Morkonan » Thu, 6. Dec 18, 21:34

Mightysword wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 16:31
...He's sitting on a a business empire that ranging from 5-10bil depending on who you trust. That is your reality...
This actually doesn't mean very much... You can not easily infer he's a business genius or a business moron just from his bank balance. All you can do is say "He has a lot of money." That would be true. But, unless you knew more, you couldn't say he has a lot of money because he, himself, made great business deals nor could you deny that aliens swooped down from the sky and gave it to him. :)

I find it kind of funny that there's an argument going on about how someone got rich. If Trump had started out poor, then one could reasonably say he either got really lucky or he worked really hard or both. (Most likely, it'd be both.) At the very least, we can say he started out with many more tools available to him that could help him make more money. That's about it. Personally, I think people more often threw money at him rather than him "making" it - He sold his "brand," not his brilliant ideas or products. That's a viable route to wealth and all we have to do is look at the Kardashians for proof.

So, what's the route to wealth like Trump's? How did he amass a fortune? (Assuming he has a fortune that was amassed.) Is it hard work? No. Bunches of people work hard in a variety of job roles and don't have the ability to amass that wealth. Was it providence? Unless he literally won a random lottery, probably not. Was it purposeful timing? No. If it was, everyone who had similar abilities would have amassed such a fortune, too. (Note: SOME people did, but to claim they may have had prescience isn't a legitimate argument. They could have, but it wasn't required. Only the act, itself, was required to take advantage of the circumstances of the day.)

We've had poor Presidents and Rich Presidents. Lately, more of them are rich than not because of the way our election finance laws work and how much money it takes to run a successful Presidential campaign. The last off-the-cuff estimate I saw to run a good, if not successful, US Presidential campaign was 100 million USD. And.. that's the problem these days - It's a hard limit on who can actually run for President. It doesn't necessarily matter if they're a good choice or not. The first qualifier is whether or not they can get enough money to run for President. And, it doesn't matter where that money comes from.

Anyway... So, Trump is rich. I don't care because his bank balance doesn't say anything about him or his personal qualities. Unfortunately, a lot of people make the incorrect assumption that it does. They think that because he has a desirable bank balance that must mean he has some desirable qualities as a person. People have been making that mistake for a very long time.

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Re: Trump

Post by esd » Fri, 7. Dec 18, 01:11

BugMeister wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 21:13
- that's complete rubbish, and you know it..
I'm sure if they "knew that" they'd not have said what they said. Either way, that's not a reasonable way to conduct yourself on this forum. In fact a few of you are getting close to having this thread locked now. Sort it out so we don't have to.
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Re: Trump

Post by Mightysword » Fri, 7. Dec 18, 01:56

Morkonan wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 21:34
Mightysword wrote:
Thu, 6. Dec 18, 16:31
...He's sitting on a a business empire that ranging from 5-10bil depending on who you trust. That is your reality...
This actually doesn't mean very much... You can not easily infer he's a business genius or a business moron just from his bank balance. All you can do is say "He has a lot of money." That would be true. But, unless you knew more, you couldn't say he has a lot of money because he, himself, made great business deals nor could you deny that aliens swooped down from the sky and gave it to him. :)
My dude, you are absolutely right! And I wholeheartly agree! :D

Which is the reason why my last 3 long posts were trying to explain exactly that. (in case you didn't notice) ;)

See here's the thing, do I believe Trump is the best businessman in the world like Trump loves to brag about himself? Of course not. But if his show boasting and overstating his worth is the reason why people accusing him of lie and dishonesty then by the same token, the people who are adamant that Trump's fortune had all came from his inheritance and he could have just sit on his arse for the last 50 and would still be where he is now are guilty of the very same faults they accuse Trump of.

Color code due to long running sentence. :P

I think people tend to think by presenting their argument in the absolute extreme it will help reinforcing their points. But for me, it just make the argument weaker by making it losing creditably. Maybe that how it works for others, but this is how it works for me. You probably have noticed, my main source of "fun" in these posts and on the forum as a whole, whether it about Trump or other threads, is poking at things that were presented without a context. :)
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