Stock Exchange confusion.

Scoob · Post by **Scoob** » Sat, 17. Dec 11, 22:59

Hi,

Thought I'd give the new stockmarket thing in AP a go this evening. Did some reading up on it and the general tip seems to be "buy at index 100".

Using the Teladi Stock Exchange in Grand Exchange I bought an item that was bang on 100. There was stock of the underlying product locally, but no current demand.

I'm currently at a loss on this item, due to the purchase charge.

Anyway, a little while later the local (few sectors around) stock of this item drops by 50% - so there IS demand obvious or else who would buy? This has NO effect on the share price...odd. A little later it stock drops to zero...and still has no effect on share price.

So, I hold shares in stock for which there is NO demand (even though it's an item "used" by equipment docks and the like & someone is buying it) and now there's NO stock (I bought the rest as a test!) yet the share price is unchanged.

What does affect stock prices then? It should be supply and demand, and if there's NO supply (i.e. someones bought them all / factory has been taken out) surely this would affect share prices? Maybe the game doesn't register NPC's or the player buying items as demand, rather just the fact that local factories / docks that use the item aren't full. Seems an odd way of doing it.

Maybe I should try a different item such as a food product or energy... I've done real live trading, and this in-game version confuses me...maybe because I have certain expectations from it.

Any thoughts or comments welcome... *

Scoob.

* that "or" suggests that you can comment without thinking, that's fine but mayeb I should have said "and" lol

saco3 · Post by **saco3** » Sat, 17. Dec 11, 23:07

It depends on how much time you give it and I think that the stock index is for the whole universe so if its not there in some sectors it might be abundant in other sectors.

I my self don't have much experience with the stock exchange but I usually target stock that are green (index color number) and if I feel like taking a risk go for index numbers between 28-60 which are usually yellow. The best profit I've made out of this is around 2 mil.

Scoob · Post by **Scoob** » Sat, 17. Dec 11, 23:15

Hi saco3,

Thanks for you reply.

Well, I was monitoring local stock levels (the surrounding group of Teladi sectors) and, while there was a delay, the stock levels tied up exactly with the nearby fabs.

I chose 2gj shields for the record, there's a war on so they'd be in "demand" right? (now that would've been a nice feature right? Imagine being able to sell weapons etc. at a premium price for a change rather than the Equipment Dock average...) Maybe my mistake is that there's no local Equipment dock that actually uses 2gj shields so the stock is effectively stagnent. IF Grand Exchange had an Equipment dock (it doesn't in TC either) then things would be different.

While the level of apparent detail is good for this feature, I'm not entirely convinced about the logic behind it...likely I just need more time to get used to it.

Cheers,

Scoob.

EmperorJon · Post by **EmperorJon** » Sat, 17. Dec 11, 23:37

Trade in "naturals". Buy at 100, sell when they drop to the 80/70 region for safety. 600k if you get it right. You'll soon find yourself buying 3 sets at a time too. Got me to 12M in 9 hours, though I know you can do a lot better than that.

Scoob · Post by **Scoob** » Sat, 17. Dec 11, 23:46

Thanks for the tip EJ, just a shame that in-game events don't appear to be taken into account.

If you can get easy money then really I'm not interested in the feature. If I could gamble on say Terrans taking out some major product line, or clear out a resource myself with a factory of my own, then I'd be happier to play the markets. I assume my fabs are of course taken into account same as NPC ones? I've not got any fabs myself yet...

I will do some more reading, maybe the rules will sink in a little better.

Cheers,

Scoob.

EmperorJon · Post by **EmperorJon** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 00:03

Yeah, I intended to improve trading a lot with my Trade Plugin, but it kind of died. Mark continued the ideas with the Stock Exchange and the banking system, stuff which at the time was WAY beyond my skills. He's an awesome guy!

I dreamed of having every station a company, or part of a larger company, with accounts, hiring frieghters, etc... Alas, I hope we get it in Rebirth!

Scoob · Post by **Scoob** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 00:19

Well, I made some money from shares...random chance more than anything though.

I bought some "naturals" as you suggested EJ, and made an instant profit so sold them within 10 seconds of buying.

I then bought some more stuff, only to see it drop instantly, I waited about 20 seconds and I was in profit again so sold.

I'd have thought if someone was suddenly buying up huge amounts of stock, the share price would go up. Same as if someone was selling a load they'd go down. Until I understand it better I think I'm best avoiding this...it does look very impressive and lots of work has gone into it certainly. However it doesn't seem to behave how I'd expect. Maybe if I'd not traded in reality I'd be able to get my head around it better.

Cheers,

Scoob.

mark_a_condren · Post by **mark_a_condren** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 00:57

Hi Scoob

It appears there is still a slight problem when there is Zero local demand sometimes. If the demand had of been anything other than zero, (1 even), then those external (NPC) traders buying would have had an effect on the share prices (as they should).

I'm looking into a suitable fix for the problem.

Yes, player owned fabs are taken into account if you have any in the local exchange area, except player owned EQ docks.

No, the stock exchange is not meant to be a 'money tree' and is going to be adjusted accordingly

As you have experienced, the AP stock exchange doesn't behave quite the same as a 'Real Life' stock exchange. The complexity and calculations that are done by the game version have to be limited so as to keep performance reasonable. It does already push this limit so some things you might expect it to take into consideration have had to be left out unfortunately. As you have discovered this may cause some confusion for those who have expectations of 'what it should do', sorry about that.

Trying to find the balance between players who have zero knowledge of stock trading and experienced RL traders is hard. It still has to be fun for the average player to use, even if some corners are 'slightly rounded, if not cut'. As you would notice, AP stock exchange is more price speculation, than actual share trading.

I'd have thought if someone was suddenly buying up huge amounts of stock, the share price would go up. Same as if someone was selling a load they'd go down.

The reason share price changes don't follow these rules is, as soon as the player bought a heap of shares they would 'automatically' be worth more, so it would constantly be a case of buy them then immediately sell, that would be worse than the current system.

If you have any suggestions that you think might be a help, please by all means make them.

MarCon

jokuvaan · Post by **jokuvaan** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 02:38

Problem with stock exchange is its way too easy to make money with it, currently it trivializes other means of making money.

saco3 · Post by **saco3** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 03:21

jokuvaan wrote:Problem with stock exchange is its way too easy to make money with it, currently it trivializes other means of making money.

Am afraid I agree with you here. Though in my case I had to wait a while to the stock value to go up before I mad any profit its still an easy way to make some cash.

One thing I want to ask you about mark is the index number. I invested about 1.5 mil in energy cells and had my ships go and buy them out then sell them to stations almost providing full supply to the argon core sectors but still managed to make profit out of it. The lower the index number the higher the demand right? and at the time it was less than 20 so what I did with my ships didnt have any effect?

One thing you can do is have the prices of the stock change according to the demand of the ware, not supply but the demand since the higher the demand the shorter the supply thus having the player try to fill that gap with his own stations to stabilize the stocks and get a good prize.

You don't have to make it complicated like the RL stock exchange, but the economy in X3 is mainly based on the demand of the goods, thats why we aimed when building stations to fill in gaps and supply local and universal markets with goods that AI stations don't have the capacity to fulfill, so if you link the stock market to the baisic idea of stations and supply used in X3R and X3TC you might get a very active and challenging stock exchange since the player will have to invest both ways (stocks and stations+trading ) to make money out of anything.

Those are my 2 cents keeping in mind that I know nothing about RL stock market and this is based on my understanding of the X3AP stocks.

Thanks.

mark_a_condren · Post by **mark_a_condren** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 10:56

Some are saying SX is to easy to make money and it should be a lot harder. Be careful what you wish for, you may just get it.

@saco3

As to your using your ships to move Ecells, yes you moved them, but the total supply in relation to the total demand for the area didn't change. There were still X ecells available, and Y needed in the area. This was done on a per area basis rather than a factory by factory relationship for the area because it would have brought your game to a crawl and made your CPU cry for it's mammy if done otherwise.

I can definitely say, Stock exchange was in no way trying to actually mimic a RL stock exchange and its complexity.

Any shortfall in supply for a particular ware can be filled by the player by building stations and this will stablise the stock exchange, conversely, the player can build stations and send the stock exchange into turmoil if they so desire.

paulms1980 · Post by **paulms1980** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 11:22

so buy when the index is 100 and sell when its 80?
what are all those red and green arrows? and i take it you have to land at the exchange to sell shares then.
ha my dad is a real financial advisor.....you would have thought i could understand all this lol

Revenat342 · Post by **Revenat342** » Sun, 18. Dec 11, 13:33

One way I've found to manipulate prices in the way you're thinking is to buy out all of a resource in one area, then move it to a *different* area. Preferably one that has a very low index for that product.

That way, your shares gain value in the region you took the stuff from, you make money selling it where you brought it, AND increase the index in the region you're selling in, so you can bu stock THERE and then sell it when the supply falls back to normal.

Tested using Space Fuel supply/demand in Argon Prime/Herron's Nebula and selling to pirate bases in Boron space. Will try with something with larger volumes/variance

Malkuth74 · Post by **Malkuth74** » Mon, 19. Dec 11, 08:56

saco3 wrote:
jokuvaan wrote:Problem with stock exchange is its way too easy to make money with it, currently it trivializes other means of making money.
Am afraid I agree with you here. Though in my case I had to wait a while to the stock value to go up before I mad any profit its still an easy way to make some cash.

One thing I want to ask you about mark is the index number. I invested about 1.5 mil in energy cells and had my ships go and buy them out then sell them to stations almost providing full supply to the argon core sectors but still managed to make profit out of it. The lower the index number the higher the demand right? and at the time it was less than 20 so what I did with my ships didnt have any effect?

One thing you can do is have the prices of the stock change according to the demand of the ware, not supply but the demand since the higher the demand the shorter the supply thus having the player try to fill that gap with his own stations to stabilize the stocks and get a good prize.

You don't have to make it complicated like the RL stock exchange, but the economy in X3 is mainly based on the demand of the goods, thats why we aimed when building stations to fill in gaps and supply local and universal markets with goods that AI stations don't have the capacity to fulfill, so if you link the stock market to the baisic idea of stations and supply used in X3R and X3TC you might get a very active and challenging stock exchange since the player will have to invest both ways (stocks and stations+trading ) to make money out of anything.

Those are my 2 cents keeping in mind that I know nothing about RL stock market and this is based on my understanding of the X3AP stocks.

Thanks.

I dont agree at all.. Its a big hit for a starter person.. And you can make a killing in an hour or 2.. But the fact is that the shares are limited.. You will never make anymore then that ever. Once you get a few UT going and a Large complex, I don't see people using this anymore. Because they can grow those things.. But because of the limit on the Shares.. That will never grow.

And the fact that you really do have to stare at the screen for hours on end gets pretty boring pretty quick.

KiwiNZ · Post by **KiwiNZ** » Mon, 19. Dec 11, 09:20

I have spent a little time on the market myself and made some profit. However, it isn't as profitable as even doing missions AFTER you managed to get your notoriety up. So perhaps it helps you get quick cash to start with, which it should. After all, you can make a fortune on a RL stock exchange also. However, the moment you can net a million credits or more bringing somebody from A to B, playing the game rather than the markets will become more profitable.

I still like the exchange because when I need a rest from whizzing about the universe, I can still do something while attending to my MORTs.

A for those who aren't quite certain how to work the market. Look at the little arrows (red/green) next to the index number. Red means index will go down, meaning price will go up. Green means index will go up, price will go down. To make decent profits in short time, observe the market for a while and see which products are most volatile and within which range they move. Once you have a decent idea, buy at or near their max index, sell when they get near their respective min index.

boxleitnerb · Post by **boxleitnerb** » Mon, 19. Dec 11, 09:30

Not quite. The red and green arrows represent the change in the past 2 cycles. If the stock went down two times consecutively, it will show two red arrows for instance. You can have two red ones and the next cycle the stock will hit an all time high out of nowhere. It's just an indicator, no guarantee.

I think the stock exchange is very good for the early game so you don't have to make 100 runs for 10k profit each until you can buy some decent freighter. Later it becomes obsolete, though. Maybe they could change it in a way that adds incentive to visit the SE later on, as well.

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Stock Exchange confusion.

Stock Exchange confusion.