Coronavirus: COVID-19

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Mailo
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Mailo » Sat, 27. Nov 21, 12:33

mr.WHO wrote:
Sat, 27. Nov 21, 12:09
However I somehow find contradicting information:
- there were multiple articles that say the overall global count of infections of that new variant is rather low (like around 100 confirmed cases)
- on the other hand there is a chart that the new variant is now 60% of new infections in SA

Given that yesterday count of new infections in SA was around 2'800, one of this is either false or mistake.

or maybe new variant somehow require new/different test?

Overall, yesterday was flash panic in media worldwide.
Not necessarily. The variant is not determined for all positive cases, that actually happens rather rarely. I was not able to find numbers for SA, but in Washington State in the US, only in 8.4% of all cases the variant was determined. If out of those 2800 infections, this only happened for 170 cases and out of those 170, 100 are the new one variant, everything fits. Rereading your post I just saw that the 100 cases were globally. I couldn't find a source for the number, but as far as I know there are only very few cases (single digits) found outside of SA.
And while panic is never the right mode, deep concern and preventive steps would be a smart idea (saying this while sitting in Germany, where at the moment pretty much everyone just looks on and lets things happen instead of actually doing anything).
Also, the problem with not panicking and instead waiting for a full analyis is that if that analysis turns out the virus is more contagious and more deadly, the wait could mean millions of deaths and even more mutations.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by greypanther » Sat, 27. Nov 21, 21:15

Having seen the press conference offered by BoJo earlier today, I am left feeling less than impressed. If it is deemed that there is a need to ban travellers from countries that have this variant, why does it take several days to enforce it? Surely that is barring the door, after the variant has bolted!? Then again it seems one of the people who had it in Belgium, never travelled to South Africa, so it seems it is already global. Perhaps we should just shut down global travel altogether? :twisted:

Oh yes, I remember, money... :roll:

Then BoJo mentions that people should return to face masks in public places, but not at the moment compulsory. ( Not that anywhere all did when it was! ) You reckon Boris? :roll: A case of too little too late as usual, though a bit faster than some instances, in the past. He also says people should continue getting vaccinated and boosters, but also says they may not be effective against the new variant! I just do not trust a thing that man says!

Three things stand out though for me: Firstly, so far this variant seems to prefer the younger folk, who should be fitter. Second, In South Africa, cases seem to suggest a lower ill effect from this variant. Thirdly, a scientist claimed a new vaccine that should work against this, could be sorted inside 100 days. Wish I could remember his name...
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 08:08

I don't have an article in English, but aparently, according to WHO, Omikron is more infectious, but less deadly/dangerous than Delta.

Albeit the amount of known cases a still a bit too small and too specific (mostly young people) to know for sure, but if it would be more deadly, it would also noticable in young population as well.

Edit:
Also, existing vacines seem to work, but some research indicate that Pfiser is less effective than others - as always, more research is needed to confirm it.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by pjknibbs » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 08:47

They're planning to introduce plan B Covid restrictions in England, which means masks in most public places, Covid passes for some venues and we're being told to work from home again (not that the last one affects me, I do that anyway). Quite a few Conservatives unhappy about it, though, will have to see how the parliamentary vote goes--it's likely to pass simply because Labour support the measures, though.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by CBJ » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 09:32

greypanther wrote:
Sat, 27. Nov 21, 21:15
Having seen the press conference offered by BoJo earlier today, I am left feeling less than impressed.
I didn't look at the date, and assumed this post was about last night's press conference. There wasn't much to be impressed with this week either.
pjknibbs wrote:
Thu, 9. Dec 21, 08:47
Quite a few Conservatives unhappy about it...
I expect they're just worried that they might have to hold their Christmas party on the quiet again. ;)

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by pjknibbs » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 13:06

CBJ wrote:
Thu, 9. Dec 21, 09:32
I expect they're just worried that they might have to hold their Christmas party on the quiet again. ;)
On the quiet? From the looks of the news recently they might as well have been dancing naked in the front of the No. 10 door, announcing "WE'RE HAVING A PARTY!!!" on megaphones!

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 14:44

It's the price nowadays of too many people having phones with cameras, noses for making a few quid from the scandal-sheets, and/or a need for 'insurance' in case of ever being found expendible. I'm not condoning what they did there at all, but they cannot really have expected to keep it under wraps surely?

The bad taste and insensitive elements apart, what puzzles me is that if they pretty much all worked there anyway, how was the party any more of an infection risk than just being at work?
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Chips » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 14:58

The issue isn't people recording/videoing things per se, despite the nasty undertone of how that works (i.e. intention to try and exploit scenarios that they could have actually prevented or influenced to avoid/prevent).
It's the attitude of the ones who end up being rumbled that puts them in the scenario in the first place; just incredible. It's not limited to just politicians, though they're utterly diabolical at present. Only have to look at the pandemic to see that while a majority were good and/or adhering, significant portions did not, or they exploited, or committed fraud.

Unsurprisingly the quality of society reflects in the quality of leadership it gets. The current leadership is about as bad as it gets - but at all levels of Govt (local upwards), and wider society, there's a serious rot in morals, greed and decency. Just seems particularly concentrated at the top at this precise moment.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by CBJ » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 17:14

Chips wrote:
Thu, 9. Dec 21, 14:58
Only have to look at the pandemic to see that while a majority were good and/or adhering, significant portions did not, or they exploited, or committed fraud.
The pandemic has put a spotlight on any number of things - the fragility of our supply chains, the fact that we don't all necessarily have to sit in offices all the time in order to be productive, and so on - but what it has exposed most starkly is the divide between those who are willing to work towards a common goal and those who are utterly selfish. Obviously that divide has always existed, but the latter group have become far more brazen recently, ranging from blatant criminality to publicly demanding their right to continue being selfish and mocking those who show more empathy. We have laws that cover the criminality, of course, but we've always relied on social pressure to keep people from behaving too selfishly. The problem is that that social pressure is less effective now, partly because selfish people get validation online from various echo chambers populated with others who are equally selfish.

Somewhat ironically, especially given his own behaviour and that of his cronies, Boris was talking yesterday about a "national conversation" about what to do about this in the context of vaccination. He brought up the valid point that at some point we have to decide whether we are willing to continue to restrict the freedoms of the majority who comply with the rules because of the actions of a minority who refuse to do so, or whether we would rather restrict the latter group in order to give more freedom to the majority. That's going to be an interesting conversation, especially within his own party.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Tamina » Thu, 9. Dec 21, 18:24

CBJ wrote:
Thu, 9. Dec 21, 17:14
The pandemic has put a spotlight on any number of things - the fragility of our supply chains, the fact that we don't all necessarily have to sit in offices all the time in order to be productive, and so on - but what it has exposed most starkly is the divide between those who are willing to work towards a common goal and those who are utterly selfish. Obviously that divide has always existed, but the latter group have become far more brazen recently, ranging from blatant criminality to publicly demanding their right to continue being selfish and mocking those who show more empathy. We have laws that cover the criminality, of course, but we've always relied on social pressure to keep people from behaving too selfishly. The problem is that that social pressure is less effective now, partly because selfish people get validation online from various echo chambers populated with others who are equally selfish.
Very well said CBJ, very well said.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 08:26

Anyone read the news that Omicron might actually be highly transmissible, but lower mortality rate?

Like there is more and more confirmed Omicron cases, but very little to none confirmed deaths.
E.g. in UK 300 confirmed cases, but none hospitalized or dead yet. South Africa having Omicron dominant, but deaths not rising up.

This would be actually great variant that could end the pandemic faster - Delta took about 6 months to fully go worldwide, so if Omicron would be more transmissible, but much less deadly it could be finished by the next year for Europe/US.

On the other hand countries like Australia, NZ and other zero-COVID approach countried could be actually screwed long term.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 11:01

The problem with that almost herd-immunity theory is that more infections equals more chances for further potentially more resistant and nastier variants.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 12:58

Alan Phipps wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 11:01
The problem with that almost herd-immunity theory is that more infections equals more chances for further potentially more resistant and nastier variants.
Right, but this constant risk even with something light like flu.
Unless the entire 100% of world would be vacinated in below 3-6 months, avoiding this risk was never an option.

Even with vacinated population, people could still get sick and infect others, so the virus can and will still mutate - almost herd-immunity or full inmunity, it doesn't make much difference in the end, when you have 7 bilion people, 150 countries and running air travel. You just need one unlucky flip of the coin in wrong place.

E.g. full total lockdown in UK has zero chance to stop anything happening in abroad - this was proven with Delta and now with Omicron, twice coming from South Africa.
Same with ultra-harsh lockdown in Australia or NZ - you might save some lives in short term, but in the long term, you're making yourself set of repeat of the scenario of Native Americans exposure to European germs. And this is not just COVID, but germs in general.
Imagine sitting a year or two locked in your home and then got vacinated - great, you're somewhat protected from COVID, but your inmune system was basically doing nothing in that time, so good luck with exposure to hundred other virus or germs your inmune system should have been exposed daily.

People seems to think vacine is some miracle solution, but it could as well bite us in the ass in the long term (e.g. like anti-biotic abuse).
It's offical WHO statement that vacines do not stop COVID, only reduce deaths and hospitalization.


IMO hybrid solution with mix of vacination and natural inmunity, plus bare minimum lockdowns (only if hospital system is in danger of overload) at the seasonal peaks would be safe-sane ratio approach.

With or without vacines we will still have several new variants by the same time next year and potentially any of them could turn to Spanish-Flu.
It's really naive to think we have any means to prevent it at all (I don't count turning whole world to China-mode a solution at all).

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 13:22

What really bothers me is that vacine seem to become modern day aspirin.

Instead of adressing the cause and core of the issue, lets do nothing and eat a pill - suprise pichachu, you have opioid crisis.
Same was is anti-biotic abuse.


Vaccine would be amazing solution...if in these last two year ANYBODY, ANYWHERE would actually try to adress the issue of health problems?
People are getting fat and fatter, but hey, if you get a vacine, you'll get a free burger or a large Pepsi.
Lets lock everything down so the people just order the trash food and doesn't excercise at all.
Lets chase people jogging on empty beach, but lets make sure we put some weird exempts for politician and celebrities.
Lets put 95% of resources into COVID, while totally forget about all other dieseses like cancer or diabetes even exist.


Honestly, a do-nothing, business as usual aproach with minimal 2-3 week lockdowns at the peaks would be more effective - health wise and economy wise.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by euclid » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 13:43

After watching a report on long-term Covid (was a german tv report) I'm more worried. Due to this report mostly young people are affected with various symptoms based on the lack of oxygen in their blood. Preminary results indicate small clots and so-called remainder particles in the blood as the cause. Apparently bloodwashing is reducing the symptoms but more research is necessary.

Cheers Euclid

Edit: Found a link on the above mentioned report but it's in german click. E.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 14:15

Seem like my theory of hybrid vacine-natural approach might have some scientific backing already:

"Previous Infection Combined with Vaccination Produces Neutralizing Antibodies with Potency against SARS-CoV-2 Variants"
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.02656-21


TLDR version:
"Overall, these findings indicated that the combination of natural infection and vaccination drove antibody potency to an apparent maximum for all tested variants."

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by exogenesis » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 21:16

Hmmm...
mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 13:22
.snip.

Honestly, a do-nothing, business as usual aproach with minimal 2-3 week lockdowns at the peaks would be more effective - health wise and economy wise.
What are you smoking ??
I think nearly all the medical research & real-world observation & info from historical pandemic would disagree.
mr.WHO wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 14:15
Seem like my theory of hybrid vacine-natural approach might have some scientific backing already:

"Previous Infection Combined with Vaccination Produces Neutralizing Antibodies with Potency against SARS-CoV-2 Variants"
https://journals.asm.org/doi/10.1128/mBio.02656-21


TLDR version:
"Overall, these findings indicated that the combination of natural infection and vaccination drove antibody potency to an apparent maximum for all tested variants."
Ignoring the mad 'do-nothing' theory,
I was seeing the actual info here about 5 months ago :
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=421591&start=1845#p5069341
i.e.
"you're significantly 'stronger' for having been infected (& not die) & jabbed, than just being vaccinated alone"

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:24

exogenesis wrote:
Fri, 10. Dec 21, 21:16
What are you smoking ??
I think nearly all the medical research & real-world observation & info from historical pandemic would disagree.
Historically speaking, none of previous global/continental pademics had population wide obesity, sugar and significant percentage of population being old or elderly.
COVID is very first in such unique environment.
Last edited by mr.WHO on Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:25, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:25

I just hope that nobody is persuaded by social media misinformation to deliberately encourage their family to become infected with Covid. This is not like your average pre-school child catching chickenpox from playmates and the parents remaining unconcerned if not somewhat relieved that it is all done and dusted while still with trivial symptoms and impact.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by exogenesis » Fri, 10. Dec 21, 23:39

I don't think anyone (sensible) is advocating deliberately infecting indivduals (or the population),
*apart from the UK government's intial pandemic 'thoughts' about allowing herd immunity to happen*,
it's just the indications are that if you happen to have been infected before(/after?) vaccination,
your immune response is significantly stronger.

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