Coronavirus: COVID-19

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Vertigo 7
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sat, 3. Apr 21, 23:48

red assassin wrote:
Sat, 3. Apr 21, 23:40
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sat, 3. Apr 21, 23:07
I did not say at any point people shouldn't use the vaccine. I'm saying AZ should disclose the potential risks, no matter how small, instead of the governments deciding to do that for them.

You guys made this big deal about the rushed approvals being this great and wonderful thing because they cut out the bureaucratic stuff and all the testing was done properly even if everything was rushed. Well, now here we are after the fact and something has cropped up that the testing didn't catch, even being statistically insignificant, that seems to have a small chance to kill women on birth control. Why the tap dancing around this?
Please, please get a calculator out and think about the numbers a little before posting misinformation. We're talking about, at most, a rate of detectable incidents of, what, two in a million or so? How big a clinical trial would be necessary to detect that? Typical clinical trial participant numbers are tens of thousands, and that goes for Covid vaccines too. You'd need a "clinical trial" of, well, more than tens of millions of people to detect an effect this tiny. This is easy to determine because, having vaccinated tens of millions of people, these suspected incidents have now reached the level of "maybe something is going on here, but maybe not". The trials were not rushed and they didn't miss things: this would never have shown up in any clinical trial in the world. AZ have responded appropriately to concerns raised by regulators; they state no increased risk of issues appeared in their own data.
You can't call these occurrences misinformation. It is happening, no matter how much you or I want it not to. I just don't get why there's such a refusal from some to acknowledge it.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by CBJ » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 00:22

No, red assassin said you were posting misinformation, claiming that this had something to do with the length of the clinical trials. And he reminded you of the mathematics to prove his point.

I still don't understand what point you are trying to make, though. You seem to be hell-bent on finding something wrong. But to what purpose?

Let's assume for a moment the link is proven, and that there is a 1 in 2 million chance of someone dying. Does that mean we stop vaccinating people? No, you've already agreed that that would be silly. Does it mean we do longer clinical trials in case of a future pandemic, even if that means we all stay in lockdown for 5 years or so? Also no, because no clinical trial would ever have any reasonable chance of catching something with that low a chance.

So, what then? If all you're saying is that, if the link is proved, certain groups of people should be monitored after being vaccinated, then... um, yes, that's what would happen.

Or is this just an anti-"big pharma" crusade? I mean, that's not an entirely unreasonable starting point, but in this case it may be somewhat misdirected.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 02:10

Yes, I admit I have an anti-big pharma bias but that's not what I'm getting at here. It's as simple as I've said over and over again. AZ needs to acknowledge it as a possible side effect, whether or not it can be conclusively proven, just like every other drug company does. Look at all the anti-anxiety meds out there with "suicidal thoughts" being listed as a potential side effect. That can't be conclusively proven either, but they include it as a warning for patients and doctors to make informed decisions. That's my beef with what AZ is doing (or rather not), and if I'm not mistaken, that's Felter's beef as well.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Observe » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 03:58

Since we are getting all controversial, I might as well throw this one out here:

Viruses considered to have originated from human production and consumption of animals and birds:

SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) - from Chinese live meat markets. Ebola Virus - from hunting and eating 'bush meat' (primates and other wild animals). COVID-19 (Corona Virus SARS-CoV-2) - Chinese live meat markets. HIV-1 and HIV-2 (Human Immunodeficiency Virus) - bush meat (eating Chimpanzees and other monkeys). Avian Influenza Virus - domestic birds (meat production). Swine Influenza Virus - Chinese pig farming.

With the millions of deaths and trillions of dollars being spent worldwide to combat this latest pandemic, I think it might be a good idea to take a serious look at which human behaviors we could alter, so as to discourage the emergence of future viral epidemics.

The Causal Relationship between Eating Animals and Viral Epidemics

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 04:58

Observe wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 03:58
With the millions of deaths and trillions of dollars being spent worldwide to combat this latest pandemic, I think it might be a good idea to take a serious look at which human behaviors we could alter, so as to discourage the emergence of future viral epidemics.
Agreed but it's not just consumption that's a causal factor. Natural food chains and wildlife habitats being destroyed by human expansion play a big part. Lyme disease, leprosy, and other often overlooked infections can be directly traced to simply clearing trees from an area to build a town.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Teladi CEO » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 05:10

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 04:58
Observe wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 03:58
With the millions of deaths and trillions of dollars being spent worldwide to combat this latest pandemic, I think it might be a good idea to take a serious look at which human behaviors we could alter, so as to discourage the emergence of future viral epidemics.
Agreed but it's not just consumption that's a causal factor. Natural food chains and wildlife habitats being destroyed by human expansion play a big part. Lyme disease, leprosy, and other often overlooked infections can be directly traced to simply clearing trees from an area to build a town.
Not always, I have Lyme disease and I didn’t get it from a tick located on a clear cut field. I was deep in the woods, while scrublands and fields are perfect for ticks they are also very prevalent in not human affected areas.

Especially in the natural scrublands and pine barrens of the Northeastern US there are plenty of ticks that are in no way dependent on human development.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 05:28

Teladi CEO wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 05:10
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 04:58
Observe wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 03:58
With the millions of deaths and trillions of dollars being spent worldwide to combat this latest pandemic, I think it might be a good idea to take a serious look at which human behaviors we could alter, so as to discourage the emergence of future viral epidemics.
Agreed but it's not just consumption that's a causal factor. Natural food chains and wildlife habitats being destroyed by human expansion play a big part. Lyme disease, leprosy, and other often overlooked infections can be directly traced to simply clearing trees from an area to build a town.
Not always, I have Lyme disease and I didn’t get it from a tick located on a clear cut field. I was deep in the woods, while scrublands and fields are perfect for ticks they are also very prevalent in not human affected areas.

Especially in the natural scrublands and pine barrens of the Northeastern US there are plenty of ticks that are in no way dependent on human development.
That kind of proves the point. You encroached in an area where Lyme disease carriers naturally run wild. Most animals natural to those habitats don't have any kind of adverse reaction to it and it's not until people come in contact that the possibility of catching and spreading the disease increases.

But it's also not just ticks that carry Lyme disease. It's fairly prevalent among rodent populations, so much so that they've started vaccinating mice and releasing them to try to spread immunity around in hopes of keeping it from spreading to humans. In areas where Lyme disease is fairly prevalent, it's the rodent population that's primarily responsible for infecting people and they're breeding out of control without their natural predators to kill them off.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 11:19

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 05:28
... Most animals natural to those habitats don't have any kind of adverse reaction to it and it's not until people come in contact that the possibility of catching and spreading the disease increases.

But it's also not just ticks that carry Lyme disease. It's fairly prevalent among rodent populations, so much so that they've started vaccinating mice and releasing them to try to spread immunity around in hopes of keeping it from spreading to humans. In areas where Lyme disease is fairly prevalent, it's the rodent population that's primarily responsible for infecting people and they're breeding out of control without their natural predators to kill them off.
Hm, would it be possible to source in a sciency way (Wikipedia not acceptable) the possibility that rodents don't just carry but also spread Lyme disease, with a quantification how high the possibility is, maybe a geographical hint where that may happen ? Do they actively spread/transmit it or carry the ticks whose bite transmit it ?

Not that I reject it, just to be sure ...
Last edited by BaronVerde on Sun, 4. Apr 21, 11:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by red assassin » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 11:29

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 02:10
Yes, I admit I have an anti-big pharma bias but that's not what I'm getting at here. It's as simple as I've said over and over again. AZ needs to acknowledge it as a possible side effect, whether or not it can be conclusively proven, just like every other drug company does. Look at all the anti-anxiety meds out there with "suicidal thoughts" being listed as a potential side effect. That can't be conclusively proven either, but they include it as a warning for patients and doctors to make informed decisions. That's my beef with what AZ is doing (or rather not), and if I'm not mistaken, that's Felter's beef as well.
I literally quoted their statement where they do exactly that. Once again:
However, the PRAC also concluded that, for very rare cases of serious thromboembolic events with thrombocytopenia, a causal link with the vaccine is not proven, but is possible and deserves further analysis. (...)

AstraZeneca will continue to work closely with health authorities to ensure the appropriate use of COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca. The Company recognises and will implement the recommendations of the PRAC, including the update of the product information, whilst continuing to understand the nature and relevance of these events to ensure the safe delivery of the vaccine continues during this public health crisis.
So I still don't understand what you're looking for here.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 11:40

Quite in general, the notion of "they know something and don't tell it to us" isn't exactly useful. No word in there has a definition and everybody can build their own fantasies around it. Typical technique to spread division and doubt, and principally unfounded and unproveable. I think it even has a name, but have forgotten it.

@Vertigo7: It would be your task to source the claim that AstraZeneca knew about the clotting and concealed it because that's being insinuated. It is not at us to disprove an unproven claim, which isn't possible at all. It takes us into the post-factual world.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 16:14

BaronVerde wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 11:19
Vertigo 7 wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 05:28
... Most animals natural to those habitats don't have any kind of adverse reaction to it and it's not until people come in contact that the possibility of catching and spreading the disease increases.

But it's also not just ticks that carry Lyme disease. It's fairly prevalent among rodent populations, so much so that they've started vaccinating mice and releasing them to try to spread immunity around in hopes of keeping it from spreading to humans. In areas where Lyme disease is fairly prevalent, it's the rodent population that's primarily responsible for infecting people and they're breeding out of control without their natural predators to kill them off.
Hm, would it be possible to source in a sciency way (Wikipedia not acceptable) the possibility that rodents don't just carry but also spread Lyme disease, with a quantification how high the possibility is, maybe a geographical hint where that may happen ? Do they actively spread/transmit it or carry the ticks whose bite transmit it ?

Not that I reject it, just to be sure ...
https://www.caryinstitute.org/science/r ... od%20meal.

There's plenty of others out there as well, but these rodents like the white-footed mouse, chipmunks, rats, some squirrels, and such are your primary culprits. In essence, they get fed on by an infected tick, other ticks feed on the rodent and become infected. They breed and feed on other rodents and on and on it goes. Like the bats discovered to carry SARS-2, the rodents don't have any adverse reaction to Lyme disease. I don't know, though, if the rodents carry the disease for the remainder of their life once infected. Ticks do, however.

To be more accurate, the rodents can't spread Lyme disease through biting or breeding. Is that they're in such abundance as a food source for the ticks that they're the primary vector for spreading it. In fact, just being bitten by an infected tick isn't enough to infect a person. Best estimates put it at about 36 hours for an infected tick to infect a human once it starts feeding.

So the current hope is to try to immunize rodent populations. If that's able to be brought under control, then Lyme disease spreading among ticks will slow, and ultimately to people.

CDC maps show the north eastern US as the prime hotspot for Lyme disease.

Anyway, to Observes point - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_v-U3K1sw9U lotta little snips from disease experts and some points related to this and other stuff discussed in this thread.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Sun, 4. Apr 21, 17:07

Ok, thanks. So this is a thing in the upper left backwaters of rural 'murrica ;-), it doesn't affect the rest of humankind like COVID does, right ? Btw., I am not an expert but I think immunizing wild populations of rodents not under human control is a ridiculous task. Especially when it targets intermediate steps in the chain. The ticks will find other hosts (personal opinion).

Edit: some people here might not know what CDC is, and may have limited trust in information from official US-American sources of the environmental sector, of which some have come into some disrepute lately because of political influence exerted on them. Not that I claim that's the case here, but independent affirmation is always a good thing, quite generally. Unfortunately that's rarely accesible inside of the limited search engine bubble, one would have to search in scientific journals, but these are frequently paywalled.

Now, to the source for the claim that AstraZeneca was concealing information about the clotting. Do we have something profound in that direction ?

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 03:36

BaronVerde wrote:
Sun, 4. Apr 21, 17:07
Ok, thanks. So this is a thing in the upper left backwaters of rural 'murrica ;-), it doesn't affect the rest of humankind like COVID does, right ? Btw., I am not an expert but I think immunizing wild populations of rodents not under human control is a ridiculous task. Especially when it targets intermediate steps in the chain. The ticks will find other hosts (personal opinion).

Edit: some people here might not know what CDC is, and may have limited trust in information from official US-American sources of the environmental sector, of which some have come into some disrepute lately because of political influence exerted on them. Not that I claim that's the case here, but independent affirmation is always a good thing, quite generally. Unfortunately that's rarely accesible inside of the limited search engine bubble, one would have to search in scientific journals, but these are frequently paywalled.

Now, to the source for the claim that AstraZeneca was concealing information about the clotting. Do we have something profound in that direction ?
Well, no. The goal isn't eradication of the ticks or to stop them from feeding on the rodents. It's to prevent their food source from being the pot from which Lyme disease is spread. And yes, Lyme disease is present in other parts of the world. Norway, for example, is fighting it and looking to the rodent population as well to stem its spread.

It makes sense. The ticks will go on feeding on their usual things, but if the rodents are immune from contracting Lyme disease, it won't be passed on to other ticks that aren't carrying it. And, logistically, it'd be easier (and ecologically safer) to try to spread immunity among the ticks primary food source than it is to try to wipe out the ticks themselves. Theoretically, if whatever the ticks are feeding on can't pass the disease on, then it could eradicate the disease all together. And to accomplish this, they're doing things like releasing food pellets on public lands that contain the vaccinations. https://www.caryinstitute.org/news-insi ... me-disease

To the AZ thing - I never said they were concealing information. But the fact is they're not including a warning about the potential for clotting with the distribution of their medication (a non-denial denial press release is not sufficient). The fact of the matter is that it isn't just blood clotting, it's a very specific condition that seems to only be showing up in folks that have received the AZ vaccination and is being obfuscated by a generic "blood clotting" label.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/arch ... ay/618451/

I get it, it's a no-win scenario. Something tangentially negative about the vaccine can sway people away from it when it's most needed. However, at the same time as much as I want this whole situation to go away, I wouldn't want to see my daughter killed by the very thing that's meant to save her life. For one, I'm grateful that this was brought up. I'm sorry but AZs bottom line isn't worth the life of my daughter, even at a 1 in a million odds. I'm not going to take that chance, especially since there's other options. We've waited this long, we can wait a bit longer until one of the other vaccinations is available. Not that AZ is even approved here, yet (though they have requested it). We'll keep up with the social distancing and everything else we've been doing for the last year.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 10:02

Yeah, I got that with the mice, but the idea of immunizing or even separating/controlling a wild population (one whose procreation cycle isn't under human control) is potentially flawed, even bogus. Had been thought about and tried for centuries and doesn't work. Would lead too far to explain, evolutionary concepts applied.
To the AZ thing - I never said they were concealing information.
Gooood :-)
... But the fact is they're not including a warning about the potential for clotting ...
Please understand, there is the misinformation and the 'prove that I'm wrong' part:
They are not playing the politician's game, they have clear rules to include known and reproducible side effects in their product information (I asked my oldest who works in the industry, but not as a lab rat). If a firm is asked back on a case, they must be able to answer and hand out all information they have gathered, and they can't because - again - that is not clear. They too rely on third party information (e.g. that University Greifswald work the recently floated in the aether). One day it will have a clear database, maybe, and then you get your warning. Or, to put it funny: They can't just generally warn 'one day you will die'. A derp like me would shout back 'but we can still change the sequence' ;-)

The Atlantic: I'm not reading random news outlets, sorry, my time doesn't allow.

But, hey, I don't want to do battle, I'm sure we could have a couple of cold ones down in the harbour bar.

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Mailo » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 10:40

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 5. Apr 21, 03:36
I get it, it's a no-win scenario. Something tangentially negative about the vaccine can sway people away from it when it's most needed. However, at the same time as much as I want this whole situation to go away, I wouldn't want to see my daughter killed by the very thing that's meant to save her life. For one, I'm grateful that this was brought up. I'm sorry but AZs bottom line isn't worth the life of my daughter, even at a 1 in a million odds. I'm not going to take that chance, especially since there's other options. We've waited this long, we can wait a bit longer until one of the other vaccinations is available. Not that AZ is even approved here, yet (though they have requested it). We'll keep up with the social distancing and everything else we've been doing for the last year.
It is a no-win scenario, but not for the reasons you might think.
You say you are not going to take the 1 in a million chance of your daughter dying of the side effect and would rather wait for another vaccine. Unless that "a bit longer" wait is less than about half an hour, you are exposing your daughter to a higher risk of death than the one you are trying to saving her from. Wait a month, and your daughter is 1500 times more likely to die from COVID than from the vaccine. Are you really ok with that?
Humans are really, really, REALLY bad at estimating risks. Check out the definition of the Micromort, which is the unit for "1 in a million chance to die" (and which is where I got the risk of death from COVID from, it gives 50 micromort per day for living in New York City during May 2020 ... and things are probably worse now). If you are riding your motorbike to the vaccination center, you are literally more likely to die on the way from an accident than from any side effect of the vaccine.

Which is my biggest problem with this scaremongering and the "we must know the risks beforehand" rethoric ...it is essentially killing thousands of people while saving about five. Not five thousand, five total. Your daughter might be included in those thousands (but hopefully won't be).

Funny side note ... my US host mom is very afraid of terrorist attacks. On the other hand, she is not afraid of a higher risk group though ... babies. Yes, it is more likely you will be killed by a toddler playing with a gun than by a terrorist attack in the US.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by red assassin » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 11:21

Vertigo 7 wrote:
Mon, 5. Apr 21, 03:36
But the fact is they're not including a warning about the potential for clotting with the distribution of their medication
the AZ press release wrote:including the update of the product information
the Atlantic article you posted wrote:In the meantime, the agency has added a warning to the vaccine’s drug leaflet for the European Union. (...) Similar warnings have been issued in Canada and Australia.
Repeating something with no source doesn't make it true. Where medical regulators have recommended the inclusion of warnings, warnings have been included. (Note that this is not AZ's decision in isolation, and as discussed elsewhere inclusion of spurious warnings may put people off receiving their vaccines, so some national regulators do not appear to have made this recommendation.) This is trivial to verify by looking up the information sheets in question. If you believe something different has happened, source up.

+1 to Mailo's risk analysis.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 12:17

Yep, +1. I learned what a 'micromort' is :-)

I am looking forward to how and if vaccine will be able to keep the pace with mutation rate. That's all so exciting (Boso Ta) ! Fascinating ! ('^^' Spock) :-)

And I want my shot :(

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Alan Phipps » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 12:40

I think I understand some of Vertigo 7's concerns. He is concerned, not for himself, but for his daughter who may suffer a rare condition that makes her more likely to suffer blood clots in certain circumstances. Of course he will wish to be certain about what the circumstances and triggers are and whether the AZ vaccine could be a factor. Whether that is capable of being known with any certainty in the near future is itself uncertain.

If there is such valid medical and psychological concern then I am sure that the AZ vaccinations could proceed quite normally for the good of the general populace, while those rare at-risk cases could be considered by the medical authorities and, if necessary, a different vaccine allocated even if just for peace of mind.

It is not these few special cases that threaten the effectiveness of the vaccination programme, it is more the unnecessary vaccination resistance that uninformed speculation and misunderstanding can generate in the wider population. Dealing with rare-case issues rationally and discretely on a case-by-case basis should hopefully make the wider issues go away.

If I have misunderstood and/or misrepresented Vertigo 7's situation, then I apologise in advance.
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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by BaronVerde » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 14:18

Demanding 100% safety is unrealistic, and any hesitation gives the virus an evolutionary edge. If you can get a shot, take it, do not wait. Do not expose your children, family members and yourself to a potentially lethal infection. I mean, that should be common sense, right ?

I admit the situation is suboptimal and there's little choice, but I rather blame the politician scum (oooh, global generalization from my side :-)) for messing that one up. 'Looking forward to how this turns out' :mrgreen:

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Re: Coronavirus: COVID-19

Post by Vertigo 7 » Mon, 5. Apr 21, 14:22

@Alan - No, that's close enough to my concerns. There's what, 3 other vaccinations out there, with 2 of them having a higher efficacy? AZ is an unnecessary risk until it can be proven otherwise.

@Malio - yeah, you don't know what you're talking about. Maybe if my kids were going around licking door knobs and acting like idiots, sure, they would have a higher risk for contracting COVID. But as I said, we're doing everything necessary to protect ourselves and will continue to act accordingly until such time as we are outside of this crisis situation. Even once my household is vaccinated, we're not going to treat that as a green light to go on like nothing happened.

Here's the thing, we don't need to go to a restaurant to eat. We have food at home and can order pretty much anything. My kids don't need to be in a class room to learn. They've been doing classes online for the last year, just about, and they're doing just fine with that. I've been working from home for the last 6 years, and that's not going to change even after this is over. We've adjusted to how things are now and we'll keep it up as long as is necessary to get through this. I could probably count on two hands the number of people we've had direct physical contact with in the last year, including doctors and my parents after we had q-tips shoved into our brains.

And honestly, it's not like I'm going to listen to some random dude on the internet tell me how I should deal with my daughter regardless of how you try to quantify risks. Maybe it's irrational, maybe it isn't, but she's worth a metric **** load more to me than your opinion is.
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