Russia-Ukraine War

[euclid]

Have to agree with Toni Blair, something changed him, made him turn to the Dark Side, question is: What triggered that change?

Cheers Euclid

[JSDD]

seems like ukrainians faked that video where soliders pose beside a border post (in northern charkiv)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... mbles.html

[Falcrack]

They cleared Kiyv, then North-East, then are finalizing Charkiv.
The next seem like they are going to break norther pince of Izum, which will make Russia fail the enciclement objective.
The summer offensive is projected to go for center (towards Melitpol and Mariupol) to break Russia land bridge.

Seem like Cherson region is the last on the list, but seeing that ENTIRE Russian fron there hold on TWO bridges, Ukraine can cut and trap them any time they want - thus Russian control of Cherson is rather fragile and low priority for Ukraine offensive.

https://liveuamap.com/

... take a look at it
the encirclement will be smaller, not from isyum on, they gonna encircle tightly around severodonetsk and lysychansk (my guess)
isyum was quite hard to get, and will be even harder to reclaim by ukrainians, cause its a difficult terrain (isyum lies between 2 forests and a river flows through all of it)

// russians too, got to chew several times before they can swallow that big piece ^^

Before Severodonetsk gets encircled by Russians, Izyum will probably get encircled by Ukrainians.

[JSDD]

Ukraine’s finance minister in April appealed for immediate financial support of tens of billions of dollars to plug Kyiv’s fiscal deficit, estimating that government spending would exceed revenues by between $5bn and $7bn a month. Kristalina Georgieva, the IMF’s managing director, subsequently estimated that Ukraine would need $15bn over three months to prop up its finances.

... so, those 33 billion from the US is sufficient enough to fund the war about half a year

Still, even if it succeed, it will trap much less Ukrainian forces, so strategic impact would be very limited (comparing to originally planned ecicclement).

i think of it in terms of ...

(manpower) / (kilometers frontline)

... the more this current "U-shaped" frontline straightens up, the better ("stable") the russian defence line
(i know that many more factors play a role in this, but this assumption is not "blatantly" wrong, i guess ..)

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turkey gives nordic countries the middlefinger (regarding nato membership)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROdfcka ... ardianNews

[mr.WHO]

... the more this current "U-shaped" frontline straightens up, the better ("stable") the russian defence line
(i know that many more factors play a role in this, but this assumption is not "blatantly" wrong, i guess ..)

The problem is that defensive lines are usually directional - what could be perfect defense line in one direction, might be undefendendable in opposite.
The problem is that even if Russia will break in, it might risk itself to get into areas that are much more difficult to defend and amass more losses.
Same is valid for Ukraine if it would try to take back Donbas and Luhansk areas.

turkey gives nordic countries the middlefinger (regarding nato membership)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ROdfcka ... ardianNews

Aparently Turkey already dial back on it saying they won't block it (probably there are some backdoor negotiations for Turkey benefit).

[Tamina]

seems like ukrainians faked that video where soliders pose beside a border post (in northern charkiv)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... mbles.html

The article you cited does not say that

[Alan Phipps]

Which bit of it was supposedly faked? The Ukrainian soldiers, the Ukrainian-painted border post that the soldiers carried there, the date of the coverage, or the location that was said to be near or on the border?

Irrespective of that, does anyone believe that anything we are aware of would have prevented it from happening in fact?

[JSDD]

Which bit of it was supposedly faked? The Ukrainian soldiers, the Ukrainian-painted border post that the soldiers carried there, the date of the coverage, or the location that was said to be near or on the border?

... they didnt reach the border, so they put a new border post at their position
in german news yesterday they said something like:
"who knows whats the truth in these days, ukrainians tend to overstate their achievements quite a bit" .. while showing that scene

mariupol gone ... 7 more busses transport fascists out of azov steel plant (sorry for my "inflamatory" language here )
(according to https://liveuamap.com)

heavy shelling around bakhmut ... seems like russians gonna close up the "pot" up to popasna first
quite interesting what that guy tells ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8nS9q- ... arySummary

[chew-ie]

Soo.. some Asowstal defenders cleared the area after negotiations paved the way for them being exchanged for POW. Now Russia is like "no, those guys are Nazis and we won't exchange them".

Lolwut? Back to - don't trust any russian word?

[felter]

So there was an unusual interview on Russia television today, with Mikhail Khodarenok a retired Russian colonel who is known to oppose the war. He has in the past pretty much said it was a pointless war as there is nothing to gain from it for Russia, so saying that it is pretty much a surprise that they had invited him on, especially to a live show. It's not as spectacular as some western media would have you to believe. But it's interesting all the same, and another dose of reality for the Russians. A lot of what is doing the rounds has been pretty well edited, I've linked the longest version I could find though it is from some obscure little known YouTube channel, which may upset some, but it's as good as it comes.

One question that Olga Skabeyeva asked was how many professionals would be in the Ukrainian 1 million army, he didn't answer that question, but it's pretty well known that Ukraine have trained over 400,000 in the past 8 years, and they all have had battle experience, I would say that pretty much answers that question for her, it's around half of them, which I don't think they really want to hear that.

[burger1]

Soo.. Asowstal defenders cleared the area after negotiations paved the way for them being exchanged for POW. Now Russia is like "no, those guys are Nazis and we won't exchange them".

Lolwut? Back to - don't trust any russian word?

Wait a few days to see what happens. The Russian government still has to make a decision it hasn't been decided yet.

From the looks of it Izium will be retaken or surrounded soon and the supply lines will be broken.

It looks like river crossings by Russia might become the new norm? They made another effort with the same results. Might get up to over 18 which would put it ahead of the airport they repeatedly had been destroyed at.

Some countries are apparently going to arrest and extradite Russians wanted for war crimes. First war crime trial taking place in Ukraine.

More fuel depots, oil depots, ammunition depots, etc... destroyed. At least 3 more attempts at burning down military recruitment offices in Russia.

Google Earth unblurred Russian military base satellite photos a while ago so that people could see their military bases.

May 15, 2022 stats

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 08/photo/1

May 16, 2022 stats

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 39/photo/1

May 17, 2022 stats

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/sta ... 21/photo/1

[chew-ie]

So there was an unusual interview on Russia television today, with Mikhail Khodarenok a retired Russian colonel who is known to oppose the war. He has in the past pretty much said it was a pointless war as there is nothing to gain from it for Russia, so saying that it is pretty much a surprise that they had invited him on, especially to a live show. It's not as spectacular as some western media would have you to believe. But it's interesting all the same, and another dose of reality for the Russians. A lot of what is doing the rounds has been pretty well edited, I've linked the longest version I could find though it is from some obscure little known YouTube channel, which may upset some, but it's as good as it comes.

One question that Olga Skabeyeva asked was how many professionals would be in the Ukrainian 1 million army, he didn't answer that question, but it's pretty well known that Ukraine have trained over 400,000 in the past 8 years, and they all have had battle experience, I would say that pretty much answers that question for her, it's around half of them, which I don't think they really want to hear that.

Thanks for the link - it's heavy stuff. On the one side the guy with the proper overview / big picture - on the other hand a heavily intoctrinated woman.

I still don't understand the very simple, yet fundamental part about Russia being forced into anything of that mess. But I do understand that there is a huge part of outdated mindsets @work.

Good thing they are discussing it that openly though.

[felter]

@chew-ie

If only it was so, that was a pretty unusual thing as they don't normally have an opposing side to the war, their conversations are normally more on, we are right and do as we say, rather than do you think we are right and let's talk about it. And that Olga Skabeyeva who you think may be heavily indoctrinated, she is actually more of the one doing the indoctrinating, and she isn't even the worst of them by half, though she does make the likes of Tucker Carlson look more like a puppy dog. I think that is only the third or fourth time I have seen someone on one of their shows, even murmur against the war, let alone actually say the 3-letter word.

This is what their shows are normally like, and they have two of them a day. Wasn't the one I was looking for it was even worse, I think a lot of them get removed after a while, because they can be pretty nastey to watch.

[mr.WHO]

Finland and Sweden officially asked to join NATO - I want to congratulate Vladimir Putin for truly a historic achivement

heavy shelling around bakhmut ... seems like russians gonna close up the "pot" up to popasna first
quite interesting what that guy tells ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8nS9q- ... arySummary

This is literally the smallest possible "pot", like after 5th downsize of Russian aspiration - tiny potty.
Note that when people hear "pot" they think Mariupol, but Ukraine also fought and broke enciclement in Chernichiv and Sumy in the North.
If Russia succeed with closing this potty, this has more chance to become like Chernichiv or Sumy, than Mariupol, especially that civilians are aparently already evacuated, so soldiers can run on rations for long (easily till planned counteroffensive in June/July).
Then ,even if somehow Russia would hold that pot, this is not a killing blow as the potential for encirclement is not even two Ukrainian Brigades, but more like just elements of two Ukrainian brigades.

Seriously I don't know what kind of stupid game Russia is playing - it's like WW1 style, pay with blood for couple km more of advance.

[JSDD]

Finland and Sweden officially asked to join NATO - I want to congratulate Vladimir Putin for truly a historic achivement

putin laughing in his fist as his misogynist "colleague" erdogan shows his finger to the nordics girls
https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europ ... i-103.html
(turkey sticks to its "no" to NATO membership of the vikings)

.. oh !!! and the president of my homeland croatia is against membership of those nordics, too

heavy shelling around bakhmut ... seems like russians gonna close up the "pot" up to popasna first
quite interesting what that guy tells ... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8nS9q- ... arySummary

This is literally the smallest possible "pot", like after 5th downsize of Russian aspiration - tiny potty.

that guy in the youtube video i linked before says this area is heavily fortified and many ukrainians defend it

Seriously I don't know what kind of stupid game Russia is playing - it's like WW1 style, pay with blood for couple km more of advance.

... not any longer, putler gonna bring in his new "laser weapon"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rones.html

21st century has finally arrived ^^ (not seriously .. reminds me of hitler in his final days, inventing jet engines / ballistic missiles / what not ^^, and still lost the war)

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• russian economy growing about 3.5% the first 3 months (german state news said)
• ukrainian economy about to loose 60% of its GDP this year
• russia claims territory of Zaporizhzhia
• ukrainian ambassador in germany urges france and germany to revive normandy talks (hoping to persuade putler)
• russia expects 9% less oil production in 2022
• countries arount baltic sea want to further electricity generation with wind mills (but they avoid to talk about the storage like the devil avoids holy water)
• russia wants to pay for the rebuild of destroyed parts of ukraine that it controls
• moldova begging for EU membership
• russia admits mistakes in the beginning of the war, but claims that now all is going as planned
• US aid amounts to 43 billion $, EU only 16 billion $

[mr.WHO]

... not any longer, putler gonna bring in his new "laser weapon"
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... rones.html

21st century has finally arrived ^^ (not seriously .. reminds me of hitler in his final days, inventing jet engines / ballistic missiles / what not ^^, and still lost the war)

Wanna bet there are some cheap stuff inside, like plastic bottle and toy telescope lenses you can get in any western store ?
Hell, maybe they just bought a few thousand cheap handheld toy lasers and called a day (those fancy exotic mansions don't gonna build themselves for free)

[felter]

So it looks like no one believes the veracity of Russia's claim to have a laser that can shoot down drones, even the Israelis doubt it and they are probably the ones to go to for this sort of thing, with most saying it is more than likely just propaganda. Once again, I think Zelensky hut it on the head again when he said it is just Russia trying to make out that they have a Wonder Weapon that will turn the tide of the war, while in reality even if they do have such a weapon, it will make little to no difference just through the way lasers work.

What the BBC are saying on the subject.

It also made me think of the other day there, where the Russians claimed they had made 50 new T90M tanks and were shipping them to the frontline. 50 new tanks will not change the way things are going, especially as the Ukrainians have already shown that they can destroy the T90M just like they can with any of the Russian tanks. But it wasn't just that they showed these supposed tanks on a train, which in itself is not unusual, but these tanks were all covered, so you couldn't actually see what they were or even the condition of them, normally they don't cover up their tanks as they ship them so why do it this time. It's all just smoke and mirrors, I doubt very much they actually have 1 new T90M tanks, let alone 50 of them.

But just like the laser, even if they do, it will make little to no difference, and it all just reeks of desperation on their part.

[JSDD]

--> what is a laser weapon ??
a device that emits concentrated laser light, that can destroy enemy devices (be it drones / missiles / teddy bears)

--> how can light destroy enemy devices ??
just need to get a "energy density" high enough to melt or vaporise (laser cutting) that material
energy density = light energy / area (the light it distributed on)

the critical thing here is energy density ...
light tends to disperse as it travels through the air, that is it covers more area. double the distance and you get only a quarter of energy density ...

what are telecentric lenses ??
these are lenses that minimise that dispersion (or perspective distortion)

... so using a telecentric lense solves that problem ??
not completely, light interacts with matter (air is matter, too). depending on the light frequency you use, the laser interacts differently with air
UV light tends to create ozone from oxygen, and infrared tends to warm up air ... gamma rays tend to ionize matter

the main question to solve is (at least thats how i see this problem):
what "special" frequency (for the special operation ^^) can you use that "ignores" air molecules and heats up / destroys the matter of a drone ??

... i dont have the answer to this ...
the alternative it to just use infrared, in giant amounts and highly focussed (to "cut" a hole into the enemy device)

so my conclusion (or guess) is that lasers can be quite effective in blinding the camera of a drone ... destroying it is quite difficult, if not impossible at the moment

[felter]

You do realize that there are lenses that protect eyesight against the effects of a laser, I imagine that those same lenses could also protect the workings of a camera against a laser.

[mr.WHO]

You do realize that there are lenses that protect eyesight against the effects of a laser, I imagine that those same lenses could also protect the workings of a camera against a laser.

Unfortunately it's not that easy - there are different frequencies of laser and there is no universal protection (you can only have like 99% protection against one frequency and at best, partial against some of others).

While for big lasers the easiest part is just to have spies know what is the frequency to protect, for handheld lasers and eyesight protection it's not so easy to pick right glasses/eyeprotection.

The only somewhat safe, but very unconfortable and expensive, would be a full helmet with camera and display screen - something like Tau FIre Warrior helmet from W40k.
The other somewhat more practical, would be the personal laser warning system and helmet with dynamic protection cover.



Edit: BTW The Ukrainian Defense minister said that to this moment Germany still haven't send a single piece of heavy equipment.
However, there is at least confirmed weapon swap with Czech T-72 send to Ukraine, Germany will send Leopards 2 to Czech.