Russia-Ukraine War

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Warenwolf
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49

Tamina wrote:
Mon, 16. Jan 23, 20:26
For anyone interested, there is a really good analysis by the Austrian army of the war since it started
https://youtu.be/54daqNraMxE
No flashy lights, no clickbait, no one sided views. Just a clear and neutral reality-check of the past and current situation.
Perhaps... I do not disagree with his overall perception of the situation (that situation is dire for Ukraine) but he has weird perspective from his previous videos and interviews on what is a strategic military victory and what is inconsequential military victory (I am here referring to his earlier videos where every russian move is strategic and every Ukrainian military victory over same territory is tactical).
He has predicted collapse of Kiev within few days and later on that fall should happen "in one month". In his previous videos he was laser focused on secondary attacks in south and their slow going while not setting them at all in context of concurrent operation in NE of Ukraine which was unsuspected and very successful. And Kherson was given up by Russians anyway in the end without serious opposition.

In this video at 14.03 mark he is criticizing July British intelligence evaluation of Russian air activity and their postulation that it has had limited effect on Ukrainian ability to fight the war and Kremlin's reliance on cruise missiles had "likely" depleted their stocks (media and social networks did run with this as 100% thing). He then contrasted this with their report from December.
This is where I have an issue with his representation - as supposedly professional soldier he should be very aware that "likely" and "probably" are important qualifier words here. Intelligence is not exact science unless you have infiltrated every level of enemy command, control and intelligence networks. At best it is an educated guess.
He also takes these statements slightly out of context - British statement in the very same passage that Russians attacks by cruise missiles in July indeed had no effect on military operations was proven true since Ukrainians launched several big offensives after summer which were successful.
He fails to mention to the Kremlin is much more reliant on imported drones to sustain their strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure which is a significant change from the beginning of the conflict and would kinda imply that British Intel was not TOTALLY off.
And I do wonder why he is not commenting in same vein Russian Defense Ministry reporting which goes into science fiction - as an example on Tass you can find their claim of 1903 destroyed tanks in April (in the beginning of 2013 Ukraine reported that it had 700 MBTs) which was taken up as fact by many pro-Russian commentators. Or in this video on 8:08 mark he is using Kremlin loyal TASS interpretation of Vladimir Karpenko statement of equipment loses during "current heavy fighting" (it is interpreted to mean Ukraine lost up to 50% of its equipment overall by June). He has not sourced this but I only found this reported by TASS or others referencing TASS.
So he is also FAR more diplomatic in his comments regarding Moscow in the video while calling out Brits directly here.

This is just an example and it may seem like I am nitpicking on small detail here but in his videos (which I have seen even before he switched to making English versions), I have noticed several such examples and bit weird use of sources. I also find it bit weird that he is mentioning T-90 as arriving recently while they were used in Ukraine since may last year while failing to mention surprising introduction of T-62 tanks in Ukraine in same time period. Also claiming T-90 as modern tank is bit...weird since it essentially rebranded, albeit heavily upgraded T-72.
But this is already turning to a wall of text.

I think he is better than most talking heads in the western media consisting of ex-military that cash in on their military backgrounds in order to pontificate on things they have no up-to-date knowledge on.

I am also not saying that he is wrong in 100% of what he states. I do agree actually with him for most part and very much so with his opinion that Kremlin's forces are not a spent force that is not capable of adapting and conducting a war. Same with the fact that supplies being sent to Ukraine are drops in the sea when it comes to systems affecting operative and strategic space.
But I do wonder if he is a numbers military officer (using % to showcase control of an area is very strange choice for me) and that his analyses may be influenced by this. And sometimes I do wonder at how he uses his sources.
Last edited by Warenwolf on Tue, 17. Jan 23, 14:21, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 14:02

Alan Phipps wrote:
Mon, 16. Jan 23, 13:54
A primary role of tanks today is as tank-killers. No tank is invulnerable but some have better survivability under fire than others. All fear attack helicopters.

That said, different roles may suit different types of tanks. Heavy well-armoured tanks suit supporting the advance of armoured infantry in AFVs; they protect them by taking out enemy armour and protected defences while, to an extent, acting as fire magnets that might further spare the AFVs.

Lighter and more agile tanks can act in numbers as manoeuvre assets that bypass prepared defences and attack logistics and less-prepared reserve elements in the enemy's rear areas.

This is very much an ideal that a mix of different tank types might assist with if planned appropriately, although I acknowledge the standardisation problems of logistics, maintenance, resupply, and training, etc. Even simple language problems may exist with labelling, cautions, and manuals, etc.
If I read you correctly and you were commenting on only tanks, I have to say that I disagree with your opinion on use of tanks - I respect that different countries have different tactics but this sounds very archaic to me - in my opinion a military armored unit cannot predict situation or mission most of the time, especially in the ever changing situation and speed modern warfare takes place in and its organization and equipment should reflect that reality.
That is why medium/heavy tanks are gone from most (all?) army inventories these days being replaced by standardized main battle tank.

But this is tangential to the point I was trying to make - I think support to Ukraine should be far more standardized and expanded since logistics make or break armies. This applies to every piece of equipment from utility helicopter to smallest bolt.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by xenoncore123 » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 18:29

Anyone seen Russia use those new tanks they were showing off in 2021? T-14 Armatas? Looks like they are using their old stock first. I noticed they are also using their old propeller bombers they made during the 60's, and after a year nearly, they have started to use their newer bombers. Forgive me i am not really good with Russian modern weapon systems names. All i know is that they have a jet bomber, a new tank, and a funny vehicles that emits microwaves for clearing land mines, which has a fuzzy fondness to cause insects to explode. Don't tell the Kha'ak shhhh. :)
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 19:43

T-14 Armata hasn't been yet spottend in active combat.

There are only training footage, but it's debatable if they are from Ukraine's occupied territory or from Russian border area.

Last, but not least Armata is overrated just like BMT Terminator - only a dozen have been build, just enough so token Armata company could do a cinematic duel with token Challenger 2 company - the result of the battle would be totally irrelevant :D

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by xenoncore123 » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 19:45

GDI scum, Nod forever!
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Post by EGO_Aut » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 20:30

I also see things differently than @Warenwolf, for example.

Without being able to remember all of Col. Reisner's episodes in detail, I believe that he looks quite well into the magic crystal ball.

Because of strategy/tactics I think he meant that the UKR can't easily attack strategically important targets in RU. For example water, energy,.. supply. Of course, with the attack on the bomber base (2x?) or gas storage they surprised them. But there are no cruise missiles attacks on Moscow.

RU is still firing rockets, and around the viral Turkish drones it has become very quiet. I wouldn't describe the UKR counter-offensive as big or successful, but it was morally important. War-decisive cauldrons where many soilders got caught did not yet exist.

T90 is the most modern main battle tank (RU) available in large numbers. I don't count the handful of T14s among them. I don't doubt whether the UKR T84 is better than the T90. But they can not bring large numbers and need some western versions.

Well, We will see....

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Tue, 17. Jan 23, 22:08

Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
He has predicted collapse of Kiev within few days and later on that fall should happen "in one month".
The first video of him was after the attack or during the siege on Kiew and he called it a great success for Ukraine. I couldn't find anything before that, except if he was staged somewhere else, of course.
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
He has predicted collapse of Kiev within few days and later on that fall should happen "in one month". In his previous videos he was laser focused on secondary attacks in south and their slow going while not setting them at all in context of concurrent operation in NE of Ukraine which was unsuspected and very successful. And Kherson was given up by Russians anyway in the end without serious opposition.
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
This is where I have an issue with his representation - as supposedly professional soldier he should be very aware that "likely" and "probably" are important qualifier words here.
Ironically, in the end of every presentation, when he carefully tries to extrapolate the presented data to foreshadow the future development of the war, he is always using words like "could", "likely" and "maybe". :D
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
In this video at 14.03 mark he is criticizing July British intelligence evaluation of Russian air activity and their postulation that it has had limited effect on Ukrainian ability to fight the war and Kremlin's reliance on cruise missiles had "likely" depleted their stocks (media and social networks did run with this as 100% thing). He then contrasted this with their report from December. [...]
He fails to mention to the Kremlin is much more reliant on imported drones to sustain their strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure which is a significant change from the beginning of the conflict and would kinda imply that British Intel was not TOTALLY off.
I do understand and partly follow your criticism. However, Western nations were exclusively supplying offensive weapons to Ukraine like all those Soviet tanks back then. I assume based on "wishful thinking" reports like those from British intelligence. I remember he made a video about it, at this time, that Ukraine needs weapons to defend their infrastructure asap.
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
Or in this video on 8:08 mark he is using Kremlin loyal TASS interpretation of Vladimir Karpenko statement of equipment loses during "current heavy fighting" (it is interpreted to mean Ukraine lost up to 50% of its equipment overall by June). He has not sourced this but I only found this reported by TASS or others referencing TASS.
Here is the source
"So, we have lost approximately 50 percent."
This went threw the news a lot when he said it because it was the first time Ukraine was so straightforward about the current situation.
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
I also find it bit weird that he is mentioning T-90 as arriving recently while they were used in Ukraine since may last year while failing to mention surprising introduction of T-62 tanks in Ukraine in same time period. Also claiming T-90 as modern tank is bit...weird since it essentially rebranded, albeit heavily upgraded T-72.
Okay this may sound like I am trying to mess with you but I mean it, I promise :P "More" modern tank - is an important qualifier word here :D I think his point is though, that Russian military production and supply is ongoing, while Ukraine depends on Western countries.
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
But this is already turning to a wall of text.
You have very well earned yourself my reply :D

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 00:32

Tamina wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 22:08
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
He has predicted collapse of Kiev within few days and later on that fall should happen "in one month".
The first video of him was after the attack or during the siege on Kiew and he called it a great success for Ukraine. I couldn't find anything before that, except if he was staged somewhere else, of course.
Typically when I need it, I can't find it... I was reading this online in the very start of the war. I thought I remembered reading it at heute.at but I seem to remember wrongly... I admit also that my understanding of german is bit on the weak side where I kinda conclude what was being said rather than understand it. Especially when regional variations come into play. So perhaps I misunderstood his statements.

All I can find now is him being negative on Ukrainian ability to defend itself (so was I, but I am not paid to pay attention to that sort of stuff) and predicting rapid end of the war:

" Die Ukraine sei bei der Verteidigung seines Territoriums weitgehend auf sich alleine gestellt und könne einen russischen Vorstoß maximal verzögern, aber nicht aufhalten."

Source:
https://www.kleinezeitung.at/politik/au ... n-Vorstoss

He would later implicitly state (my understanding of German and its Austrian variant is superficial so perhaps his statement is not as strong as I imagine) that Russians would gain upper hand soon.
source:
https://youtu.be/4vGw96-c8Nw?t=506

Russia is taking control of half Ukraine is in two, three weeks, one month at worst:
"Doch selbst wenn die Ukrainer erbitterten Widerstand leisten, rechnet der Experte damit, dass die laufende Schwächung der Verteidigungskräfte dazu führt, dass "in zwei bis drei Wochen, im schlimmsten Fall nach einem Monat die Ukraine bis zum Westen in [russischen] Besitz genommen ist."

source:
https://www.heute.at/s/fragen-zu-ukrain ... -100192408

The last one particularly aged well.


Tamina wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 22:08
However, Western nations were exclusively supplying offensive weapons to Ukraine like all those Soviet tanks back then. I assume based on "wishful thinking" reports like those from British intelligence. I remember he made a video about it, at this time, that Ukraine needs weapons to defend their infrastructure asap.
Well, the ways of Western support to Ukraine seems mysterious to me (more of the type - lets send the equipment that is slotted to rust in some storage) and I would wish for significantly more standardized support. Also there is no such thing as defensive or offensive weapon imho. These soviet tanks and javelins were vital to grind down the Russian advance. I frankly think that everything is needed in Ukraine whether you consider it defensive or offensive. Also I feel it was more of internet armchair generals and some media that were going for hyperbole (as usual)regarding Russian stocks than professionals.
Around the same time as that particular British Intel statement came out Stoltenberg was saying that war could last for years (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ru ... 022-06-18/). This is still official position of NATO.

But we are not here discussing what Colonel M. was talking about in that particular video - he was using that example of Intel statement as an example of wishful thinking which I found very intellectually lazy at best. And I strongly disagree with his categorization of that statement as an example of wishful thinking.

Tamina wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 22:08
Here is the source
"So, we have lost approximately 50 percent."
This went threw the news a lot when he said it because it was the first time Ukraine was so straightforward about the current situation.

"I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. …
"

If you have in mind that this is a guy speaking Slavic language, I don't read this sentence same way as you or Colonel Markus Reisnes does. But speaking a Germanic language on day to day basis, I can perhaps understand that you perhaps read it like that. For me I can't grasp how this means "Ukraine lost up to 50% of its military equipment by June". This was how that statement was framed by TASS and so I assumed, Markus Reisner used them as source.

Now, if he explicitly said that due to expansion of Ukrainian army and its significant losses of heavy equipment and probably other types of equipment, support from West was not meeting Ukrainian needs, I would not disagreed.
Tamina wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 22:08
Warenwolf wrote:
Tue, 17. Jan 23, 13:49
I also find it bit weird that he is mentioning T-90 as arriving recently while they were used in Ukraine since may last year while failing to mention surprising introduction of T-62 tanks in Ukraine in same time period. Also claiming T-90 as modern tank is bit...weird since it essentially rebranded, albeit heavily upgraded T-72.
Okay this may sound like I am trying to mess with you but I mean it, I promise :P "More" modern tank - is an important qualifier word here :D I think his point is though, that Russian military production and supply is ongoing, while Ukraine depends on Western countries.
OK. Not how I understood him. "...which we have seen in last weeks to come" (regarding T-90) is bit weird English but who am I to criticize...

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by felter » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 01:26

I didn't watch the whole of his video as a lot of the theories he is coming up with seem to ignore a lot of what is going on and what has happened, for example he talks about ammunition, but he never takes into account that just a few weeks ago the main ammunition factory in Russia was burned down severely effecting their ammunition manufacturing capabilities, not to mention that Ukraine keeps blowing up the Russian ammo dumps and their supply routes, let alone having 10 million ammunition doesn't necessarily mean they have 10 million correct ammunition, especially as the Russian troops are using two different rifles that use different ammo. Also, the same with tanks, Russia says it has something like 10 thousand tanks, but 8 thousand of those are severely outdated, broken and don't work or are just hunks of rusted junk. A lot of what he is saying depends on Russia telling the truth, and Russia are, like George Santos, incapable of doing so.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Observe » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 02:02

felter wrote:
Wed, 18. Jan 23, 01:26
...a few weeks ago the main ammunition factory in Russia was burned down severely effecting their ammunition manufacturing capabilities...
I was not aware of this. I am aware of depots being destroyed. Do you have link to any articles mentioning destruction of main ammo factory? Thanks.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 08:23

#FinnishThem :)

https://libreddit.eu.org/r/UkraineWarVi ... n_said_we/
(Finnish prime minister states that Finnland stands with Ukraine until it wins)

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 10:10

Warenwolf wrote:
Wed, 18. Jan 23, 00:32
"I'm not going to talk about the anti-tank guided missiles or anti-tank guided weapons for now. I’m just talking about heavy weapons. As of today, we have approximately 30 to 40, sometimes up to 50 percent of losses of equipment as a result of active combat. So, we have lost approximately 50 percent. …
"

If you have in mind that this is a guy speaking Slavic language, I don't read this sentence same way as you or Colonel Markus Reisnes does. But speaking a Germanic language on day to day basis, I can perhaps understand that you perhaps read it like that. For me I can't grasp how this means "Ukraine lost up to 50% of its military equipment by June".
TbH I have no idea what the Ukrainian commander is trying to say as it doesn't make much sense to me.

The "30 up to 50%" range seems to apply for every of those 40 batallions he mentions before your citation. Then he says out of the context they have lost 50%, what I can only assume to be in total but that is not how Math works. Maybe to simplify his then following calculation for the interview. However, the results are wrong. 40 batallions, with 100 IFVs each, losing 50%, does not add up to his 1300. Same for his artillery and tank numbers.

Anyway, his point is to lower equipment loss with modern artillery systems from western nations and those are the numbers he chose to strengthen that position.

This is my brittle understanding but I am all ears about the Slavic interpretation. :)

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Und wenn ein Forenbösewicht, was Ungezogenes spricht, dann hol' ich meinen Kaktus und der sticht sticht sticht.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 12:21

chew-ie wrote:
Wed, 18. Jan 23, 08:23
#FinnishThem :)

FinnishThem then CzechThem, if they are polished :D


...unfotunately I don't have more puns for the rest of countries :(

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 13:51

Tamina wrote:
Wed, 18. Jan 23, 10:10
This is my brittle understanding but I am all ears about the Slavic interpretation. :)
Lol @"about the Slavic interpretation"... The way I see it, he is talking about hypothetical needs to showcase the disparity between delivered and the projected actual need. This is how my father would speak to me about how many nails I need to buy for him if he is estimating the need for nails needed to construct a fence if we are talking informally (formal communication is different beast). Setting up a math calculation does not make sense since he is not setting up exact statistics. And you also have to put this into context that he needs as much equipment as possible, not only for use but also for spares.
And of course my interpretation may be wrong but taking what he said here to mean "up to 50% of equipment lost" as we go into June is very strange conclusion that would entail that war would be over by December one way or another. NOT that much of equipment has been sent to Ukraine.

Now, granted Markus Reisner is never commenting on that info directly during this presentation but it is as strange choice to put it up there on the presentation while making a point of Ukraine being on pair with Russia initially with arty (eh..where and which type buddy? There was rather important tactical and strategic targets early in the war which went unmolested by UKR artillery) and had 10x lower fire intensity by June (Ok, I can agree with that part).

Now perhaps I should have used an example less open for interpretation -I can point out that same weird logic applies to his light intensity images at 3:54 and bit better at 18:54 mark (it was shown at several places). The top image shows many light points in Ukraine while bottom image is showing strong reduction of the same light points. Which is nothing controversial in itself until you notice the same reduction of intensity on the Russian side of the border and other countries around. So basically, I speculate here, it is an image taken later or earlier during the night and perhaps shows nothing of the damage Ukrainian electrical grid has sustained (which it undoubtedly did) at whatever point this should be.

I understand that this guy being a professional is more believable than me, a rando writing on a gaming forum. And he is probably better at his job than I would be if put in his shoes right now.
But these kind of mistakes would get you fired if you made such representation to a business partner or customer in my line of business (even if the point you were making was valid). He is representing Austrian defense department and not being a run of the mill youtuber.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by himid » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 17:23

esd wrote:
Wed, 4. Jan 23, 01:37
No, I regard it as the last gasp of a dying leader to make his mark on history before it is too late. Unfortunately, all his advisors are terrified to tell him the truth; the military is not as capable as they lead him to believe.
For the sake of a trace in history, they don’t put everything on the line. As for the abilities of the military... let's judge that a bit later. When it will be clear what broblems appeared, how they were solved (or not solved). An army that has not actually fought for decades (that is, with a change of generations) can afford to make a number of mistakes. But the point is not what mistakes there are, but how they were taken into account.

esd wrote:
Wed, 4. Jan 23, 01:37
Huh, I thought for a moment you were referring to Russia's "partial mobilisation" that sent Russian men racing to leave Russia.
You should listen to your propagandists less and communicate more with the Russians. First, yes, no one wants to fight. It's natural, no one wants to fight. Well, secondly, there are several opinions.
1) A person does not want to fight, but understands that this is necessary for the security of the Motherland.
2) A person does not want to fight, but does not run away anywhere, because. this is his home!
3) A person does not want to fight, is afraid and flees to another country. Most often, only problems await him there, but he runs. There are, but they are a MINORITY.
4) The elite, whose money is invested in Western assets and fearing their loss, they leave and say the most unpleasant things about Russia. As long as the assets are not blocked or taken away.
5) People who do not have any skills (and are not needed either in Europe or in the USA), but took advantage of the situation to get asylum there. They expect a good life, but they are unlikely to get it.

And yes, I was talking about the Ukrainians. And unlike you, I have the opportunity to communicate with Ukrainians. Believe me, the average Ukrainian is just interested in getting this all over. They hide as much as possible from mobilization, they do not want to fight. They are caught on the way to the store or for other vital needs. Most Ukrainians get to the front this way.
Well, although there are others, which again are a minority. Most often, these are people who have a distorted historical education and from whom the information that their country was previously part of something larger is generally hidden.
There are also sofa warriors, they will never go to war, but on the Internet they are so aggressive that doubts arise about their mental health (just what they write will never occur to a healthy person).

Well, in general, just try on yourself to try on the situation and you will understand a lot. I don't think you would be thrilled to have to go to war where your life could end very quickly. And by the way, think about whether the current situation will reach the point where you will have to go to war. Well think.

esd wrote:
Wed, 4. Jan 23, 01:37
Except that's not what we are watching, is it? They are not Russians you are killing. You can't make them Russian again by trying to invade them, like some spurned lover who can't take that it's over and kidnaps them because they are "meant to be".
It seems to me that you live in a completely different reality, carefully created for you by your media. From our side, the reality is:
Since the collapse of the USSR, many Western NGOs (most often the USA) have entered the entire post-Soviet space. There was a gradual, very smooth infusion into the educational process and the new generation received a different idea of the history of their state. The influx into the media has led to a different perception of the fraternal peoples or neighbors (well, it is logical that the West has a different perception). We can say that white has become black, and black has become white. However, the trouble with Ukraine is that a fifth of the population of Ukraine are ethnic Russians. And 80% of the population perceived Russian as their native language. Half of the population was in one way or another for close relations with Russia. However, the new generation was brought up in a different way. And again, the bez is that this is an active minority, very active. And in 2014, those who represent this minority came to power. In the Ukrainian media, a narrative of hatred towards Russians and Orthodoxy gradually began to be pushed through (and remember that a fifth of the country is generally ethnic Russians). If you look at the map, you will understand that ethnic Russians live just in the territories of eastern Ukraine. And from here the civil war began in these territories. Not because Russia wanted it, but because within one state there was a sharp change in relations. Are you from the UK? Think about what will happen in your country if the new generation of Scots hate the British. If they constantly repeat there that the British should be slaughtered and their houses burned. If it's massive. Sooner or later you will also get a civil war. Want to? I think no.

Now about Russia. The Russians (and I'm telling you exactly as a Russian) are generally resigned to the fact that they have a new country, while neighboring countries have become independent. And if you notice, we have no problems, for example, with Kazakhstan. But from the point of view of profit, Kazakhstan would be even more interesting. But no, everything is fine with this state, even though it is oriented towards the West. Here we are talking about the fact that Ukraine, starting in 2014, gradually began to pose a danger to Russia. It is because of the development of hatred and parallel armament. Well, of course, what happened in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions ... I think that your media does not say anything about this. I actually noticed an interesting fact. Your media always talk about what Russia is doing on the territory of Ukraine. But at the same time, they are silent about the shelling of absolutely civilian objects in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. And yes, I know what I'm talking about, it is the Ukrainian troops that are shelling these territories indiscriminately. I personally analyzed some cases and, using the available materials and maps, determined the place from which the shelling was carried out. Your media is silent about this, as they were silent until February 24, when 500-1000 shells flew at civilian targets a day. In the same way, they were silent about the shelling of Donetsk or Lugansk from "Gradov" and this is 40 shells from one car, which fly absolutely non-selectively. This is a square strike. Or about the shelling of Lugansk from an airplane, just to the city center, where people were walking in the park (a terrible sight). They didn't show you that, did they?

But there are not only photos, but also video evidence and there are many of them. You would be horrified to see what happened in those 8 years: 2014-2022. And I repeat, there is both photo and video evidence.

So... what I wanted to say. And that from our side it is seen as follows: "Western NGOs, through the corrupt government, the Ukrainian oligarchy and the media, have changed the minds of the young population of Ukraine (and not only ... because if a person is constantly told that he is a dog, he starts barking). It led first to a civil war, and later to what we have now. And yes ... let's forget the words of Merkel and Holland, who said in plain text that "The Minsk agreements were needed to prepare Ukraine for war." Prepare Ukraine for war with whom?

This is how it looks from our side. From those who do not sit somewhere far away, but live nearby. From the people who have relatives on both sides of the border. You see it in completely different colors, you are not here.

Could this have been avoided? Don't know! But what happened before that reduced the chances of a peaceful outcome.
esd wrote:
Wed, 4. Jan 23, 01:37
Ukraine left the USSR and is quite happy without Russia, else they'd not be fighting against Russia's invasion. It's over. They don't want you (Russia) any more.

The sooner Russia realises it should not be there, the more lives will be saved. It's not up to us to step back and let you bully a smaller country back into a relationship it doesn't want, it's not up to Ukraine to roll over and let you invade unopposed, no
I don't even want to comment on it. You really live in a different world. You do not communicate with Ukrainians, you do not have friendly relations with real people. You cannot understand what is happening here, because you are there, somewhere far away. You think exactly those flares that you are told.

esd wrote:
Wed, 4. Jan 23, 01:37
Then stop invading other countries.

Russia needs to stop attacking a sovereign nation. That will spare lives and let Ukraine determine its own future; in NATO, in the EU, in the Russian federation or something else entirely.
A very strange statement. But what about Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Yugoslavia? The list can be continued if desired. But what about them? Are they not sovereign? People there didn't want to live happily? They didn't want to determine their own fate? Why did the West decide everything for them? Why did the West kill so many people there, which is very far from what is happening in Ukraine? Shouldn't the West have stopped? Or "it's different"?

You pursued your interests in these countries and did not worry at all about what would happen to those people. You didn't care. And now these countries are in chaos. Compare with what is now in the Crimea ... go and compare, talk to people from there. Or are you afraid to see the truth? And even look at the destroyed Mariupol, where there is now a large construction site and entire blocks are being built. Has the West built something in the countries it has invaded? Or just destroy?

Maybe you shouldn't put on the role of a teacher when you yourself have caused so much trouble around the world?

-----

Well, here's what I'll tell you in the end. You are such an ardent defender of Ukrainians... people whose opinion you don't even know... you didn't ask them. All the media have brought you on a silver platter. Tell me, are you ready to fight? Are you sure it won't reach you personally?
Why am I asking this? Yes, because such a quantity of weapons that is being supplied to Ukraine (and more have already been delivered there than Ukraine had before February 24) is difficult to assess otherwise than direct participation in the war. And therefore, sooner or later, the war will flare up to such a level that it will affect you personally. Are you personally ready to fight? Do not look from afar, but with a machine gun to the front? I'm not even talking about a possible nuclear conflict, where everything will be much worse.

Think about it... think about whose interests you are willing to fight for. Think about who will benefit if you fight.

Many Western leaders (Germany in particular) say they will not act without regard to "allies", especially without reference to the US. Interesting ... maybe it's time to think with your own head, huh? After all, the United States is far away (much further than you are from the events in Ukraine), and the United States pursues only its own interests. They never act in strangers. They are only interested in their own future. But what makes you think that in their prosperous future there is a prosperous existence (or the existence in general) of such countries as Germany, France, Great Britain and so on?

Think about it at your leisure.
Last edited by himid on Thu, 19. Jan 23, 20:26, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by CBJ » Wed, 18. Jan 23, 17:38

Enough. Apparently you didn't heed the warnings that were given on previous pages, which resulted in another user being banned from posting in this thread.

This is now your first and final warning: we will not have this forum used to parrot the same tired propaganda talking points over and over again.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Thu, 19. Jan 23, 23:09

It seems that the Kremlin has run out of talking points because for the past few months we've been getting the same recycled propaganda, including the empty threat of nuclear war. Here's a headline from today:
As U.S. and allies arm Ukraine, Russia warns that losing a conventional war "can trigger a nuclear war"
Link
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Alan Phipps » Thu, 19. Jan 23, 23:20

It is an interesting first admission though that they are at least considering that they might lose a conventional war in Ukraine (if verified).
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Thu, 19. Jan 23, 23:49

So what would be an estimate of Russia's losses in Ukraine (soldiers and armor) for a new spring offensive? If Russia has to replace the loss of professional soldiers with cannon fodder -meaning conscripts- then they better get ready for a serious number of casualties.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by himid » Thu, 19. Jan 23, 23:50

notaterran wrote:
Thu, 19. Jan 23, 23:09
It seems that the Kremlin has run out of talking points because for the past few months we've been getting the same recycled propaganda, including the empty threat of nuclear war. Here's a headline from today:
As U.S. and allies arm Ukraine, Russia warns that losing a conventional war "can trigger a nuclear war"
Link
I would recommend you always read the original to understand what certain phrases mean (trelegram is a public service).
There are excerpts in that article, but there is no essence that Medvedev wanted to convey.

And the gist is simple:
Many (very many) Western politicians openly say that they will do everything to make Russia lose. And for some reason they believe that losing to Russia will "prevent nuclear war." Here Medvedev wonders why they suddenly make such a conclusion?

After all, if you listen to these same politicians or their colleagues, then they openly talk about the need to divide Russia.

Ukrainian "politicians" are not at all shy about their expressions. And the phrase "burn Moscow" is one of the most common among them.

Both of this fall under the clause of the nuclear doctrine, which speaks of a "threat to the existence of the state." On the basis of this clause, Russia can use nuclear weapons to stop the threat. It's totally unpredictable what will happens next.

Again:
The essence of Medvedev's words is not so much in threats as in bewilderment at what "European politicians" are saying. Because preventing a third world war (which by the way is already started) by kindling a fire of war is a very strange idea.

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