Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Russians may say that they could simply set up pontoon bridges, but those would also be subject to HIMARS attack as soon as they are located.

I think Russians and pontoon bridges don't go along since May or June

[Warenwolf]

Oh, BTW the ongoing purge in SBU might also indicate Ukraine want to tighten intelligence security before the offensive.

I have bit more cynical view on that.

Ivan Bakanov had no qualifications for being responsible for intelligence security (in the role he had) except being Zelenskyj's childhood friend and partner in the TV entertainment company they both started together. Both of them were partners regarding setting up and running offshore companies in a places with great respect for privacy and not too many questions regarding where money comes from (source: https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/o ... -zelenskiy).
I want to point out that this guy was assigned to his position while there was war in the east. While the Russian intel effort in his country was gearing up... No comment necessary .

Iryna Venediktova, also appointed by current president, was in charge of anti-corruption work (this in a a country which is most corrupt in Europe) before being moved to, by presidential order, to prosecutions of war crimes. Unlike the guy above she is actually lawyer with some heft. And unless legal institutions in Ukraine are very differently organized than in the rest of the world, she has 0 influence or overview of military matters.

So color me skeptical, as they say.

[Sovereign01]

Apparently, the department was full of Russian collaborators.
Link.

[JSDD]

"Ukraine will emerge from this war as a 21st century digital democracy, Russia will emerge from it a burning gas station."

whatta heck are you dreaming?
no matter what stuff/pills you just took ... you gotta give me some of those

ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth, it even was before the war ... you think war is making that situation better ??

the difference here between russia and ukraine is:
-- russia has vast amount of natural resources
-- russia is much bigger than ukraine

hence, russia is more prosperous and will always have it easier in terms of wealth of the people ...
corruption is savaging both countries, but still russia is able to even support the people a little bit ... ukraine is just broke

Seem like Antonivsky bridge near Kherson got hit by missile strike - it might indicate Ukraine will soon make a move to retake the city - taking out that bridge, would extend Russian logistic lines to Kherson by good 60-100 km.

Oh, BTW the ongoing purge in SBU might also indicate Ukraine want to tighten intelligence security before the offensive.

ukraine might have a good chance to retake the cherson area if they are able to destroy that bridge AND if they concentrate their forces to that area
(which ukraine isnt doing ..)

the area across the dniepro river (east side) is very hard to defend .. and as time goes on, russia will become stronger there and ukraine weaker

[Chips]

So, I repeat: NATO must start negotiating while there is still something left worth negotiating about. We are not able to ruin Russia as Sleepy Joe wants.

Erm, what? What are NATO going to negotiate about? They're not involved, they're not defending their own territory, and they have zero say in Ukraine's sovereinty.

See my earlier post about absolutely baffling incoherent statements by people.

I imagine America is loving the "lease" of weapons (i.e. these aren't free, its saddling Ukraine with debt) and maybe if they stopped doing so Ukraine would eventually negotiate. Maybe.

But NATO has zero say in Ukraine's decisions. I support wholeheartedly helping Ukraine. All, frankly, mental comments that determine Ukraine is not a party in the Russia vs NATO is insane. Crimea made zero mention of NATO and statistical analysis of Russian sites/news/government indicate the rhetoric over NATO and Ukraine exploded weeks before the invasion, but was silent for the 8 years prior.

Why is that?

Oh, that's why, smoke screen. Jesus. Example as to why this thread is, frankly, a joke. At least I know that I know sod all about this.

[Sovereign01]

So, I repeat: NATO must start negotiating while there is still something left worth negotiating about. We are not able to ruin Russia as Sleepy Joe wants.

I imagine America is loving the "lease" of weapons (i.e. these aren't free, its saddling Ukraine with debt) and maybe if they stopped doing so Ukraine would eventually negotiate. Maybe.

Exactly what sort of deal or negotiated peace is potentially on the table that doesn't boil down to "Russia gets part of Ukraine" and that the Ukrainian government and public would accept, even assuming anyone trusted Putin to keep it?

[notaterran]

That's a lot of boom. So what's exploding there, artillery shells or rockets?

Link

[mr.WHO]

Another interesting rumor - USA consider, if the most effective way of scrapping A-10s would be to donate them to Ukraine.

[Warenwolf]

Another interesting rumor - USA consider, if the most effective way of scrapping A-10s would be to donate them to Ukraine.

Seeing how Russians have gotten their shit together when it comes to AD activities, I am sure it ok way of scrapping the aircraft - along with the pilot in it... The A-10 demands some sort of local air superiority to operate and is far less capable in other situations - being 300 km/h slower than Su-25, which Ukrainians already operate.

Of course, reddit armchair generals will be ecstatic over the prospect regardless....

[fiksal]

"Ukraine will emerge from this war as a 21st century digital democracy, Russia will emerge from it a burning gas station."

whatta heck are you dreaming?
no matter what stuff/pills you just took ... you gotta give me some of those

ukraine is one of the most corrupt countries on earth, it even was before the war ... you think war is making that situation better ??

the difference here between russia and ukraine is:
-- russia has vast amount of natural resources
-- russia is much bigger than ukraine

hence, russia is more prosperous and will always have it easier in terms of wealth of the people ...
corruption is savaging both countries, but still russia is able to even support the people a little bit ... ukraine is just broke

notaterran is right

There's a big difference between Russia in early 2000s and Russia now. Russia now is where Russia wants to be, on purpose. That dumpsterfire will only become a better dumpsterfire no matter how it's polished.

Natural resources and size have nothing to do with, if that were the case Russia would have high living standards, medicine, education, economy, etc. All the things that Russia no longer has, and again, on purpose.
You only need to look at smaller countries who do way better.

You of course didnt forget about this whole fascism thing either, right?


The only way Ukraine will be worse at the end of this if it'll become Russia.

So, I repeat: NATO must start negotiating while there is still something left worth negotiating about. We are not able to ruin Russia as Sleepy Joe wants.

Erm, what? What are NATO going to negotiate about? They're not involved, they're not defending their own territory, and they have zero say in Ukraine's sovereinty.

See my earlier post about absolutely baffling incoherent statements by people.

I imagine America is loving the "lease" of weapons (i.e. these aren't free, its saddling Ukraine with debt) and maybe if they stopped doing so Ukraine would eventually negotiate. Maybe.

But NATO has zero say in Ukraine's decisions. I support wholeheartedly helping Ukraine. All, frankly, mental comments that determine Ukraine is not a party in the Russia vs NATO is insane. Crimea made zero mention of NATO and statistical analysis of Russian sites/news/government indicate the rhetoric over NATO and Ukraine exploded weeks before the invasion, but was silent for the 8 years prior.

Why is that?

Oh, that's why, smoke screen. Jesus. Example as to why this thread is, frankly, a joke. At least I know that I know sod all about this.

When you are right you are right

[mr.WHO]

Some very interesting leak from german defense comission about Germany-Poland tank swap deal for Ukraine lend & lease.

For 250 tanks that Poland gave to Ukraine, Germany proposed...20 used Leopards....starting from October 2023...one tank per month.
Aparently similar deals were for Czechia and Slovakia (and Hungary is sill waiting for Leo2 they bought long before the war).

Meanwhile Murica...118 used Abrams from next year, about 20 for temporary lease, already here (for crew training) and talks for a business deal to upgrade them to Sep v3 to unify them with 250 Abrams Poland ordered earlier.


Looks like Germany lost a customer.

[Sovereign01]

Gonna need them a lot sooner than that if they're to make a significant difference.

[mr.WHO]

I suspect Germany masively downsized and cut down the Leo 2 production line, so now when everybody need it, there is barely any capacity to even cover German army needs alone.

[JSDD]

I suspect Germany masively downsized and cut down the Leo 2 production line, so now when everybody need it, there is barely any capacity to even cover German army needs alone.

gotta distinguish between germany and "rheinmetall" (german defence corporation)
-- a corporation wont keep resources / installations that it doesn need and just cost money, they gonna do what it takes to make profit
-- germany on the other hand, as a state, can (if it wants to) just snap with the fingers and they gonna mass produce tanks for the whole of europe ...
(it simply needs a "whatever-it-takes"-mentality)

i mean a tank costs about 10 million €
germany announced it will invest 100 billion € over the next year to make its military "working" again

=> 100 billion / 10 million = ... ?

with that amount of money, germany alone can buy/produce as much tanks as the soviets had built up to its breakdown
(that is 10.000 tanks, and we are talking about modern tanks, not the T-64)

[mr.WHO]

gotta distinguish between germany and "rheinmetall" (german defence corporation)
-- a corporation wont keep resources / installations that it doesn need and just cost money, they gonna do what it takes to make profit
-- germany on the other hand, as a state, can (if it wants to) just snap with the fingers and they gonna mass produce tanks for the whole of europe ...
(it simply needs a "whatever-it-takes"-mentality)

Point 1 and point 2 are connected - given that the mentioned corporation would be responsible for work, if Germany "snap with fingers" - but it still doesn't work that way as it would take at least a few years to actually bring back production lines up to demand.

Some german general said these 100b EUR is just a first bandage that won't cure the german army, but it will provide basic patchwork effect in a few years.

IMO this is the only unique circumstances that could make that Germano-Franco tank (the ugly one, not the Panther) work as the demand could fill both german and french factories for decades.

I also supect, that if that Spain deal to provide Ukraine with 10 Leo2 would eventually come to an effect, many countries will follow, dumping their older Leo2 to Ukraine.



We will see quite a competition on tank market and development in the West rather soon <sad neglected T-14 Armata noises in the background, even more sad abused T-62 scream in the background, distant T-72 sound of turret launching to low orbit>.

[Sovereign01]

Russia and Ukraine sign UN-backed deal to resume grain exports via the Black Sea. Russia immediately bombed Odessa's docks. And then tried to weasel out of blame.

[Falcrack]

Confirmed that Polish PT-91 is now in Ukraine. Do we know whether it is the whole inventory of 232 PT-91, or just some of them?

[JSDD]

again, less gas for europe, north stream 1 just at 20% workload ...
3 "gepard" anti-air tanks arrived in kiyv

[mr.WHO]

Confirmed that Polish PT-91 is now in Ukraine. Do we know whether it is the whole inventory of 232 PT-91, or just some of them?

Most of analyst say it's circa 40 (ukrainia batalion + some reserve for replacement) - the rest of polish PT-91 will be sent once Americans deliver Abrams and South Korea will deliver K2 later this year.
Sending more right now will put too big dent in polish defense, as Poland is flat like table, ideal for tank warfare. Javelin-the-sh*t-out if more difficult here.
This will change only, when we will complete the order for more BVR stuff, like Brimstones, HIMARS and f*cktonnes of strike drones (we have a program to turn drone squadrons into dedicated flying artillery units).


For Ukraine, PT-91 is not a game changer, but useful in training and preparation before remaining 200 will be delivered (which will be the significant force).
Another fun fact is that Polish PT-91 were missing more advance ammunition, to penetrate the latest russian tanks and Ukraine happend to have plenty of such ammunition that fits PT-91.


Last, but not least:
Imagine telling some polish dude in tank factory in 80s, that the tank he build will be fighting ruskies in Eastern Ukraine in 2020s

[Falcrack]

Last, but not least:
Imagine telling some polish dude in tank factory in 80s, that the tank he build will be fighting ruskies in Eastern Ukraine in 2020s

The world is indeed a crazy place!