Russia-Ukraine War

[notaterran]

Estimates vary wildly but I've read that Russia has lost between a third and half of its army to the Ukrainians, which explains Russia's nuclear threats. Russia and North Korea are good examples of "when weak, appear strong".

Russia's tank force — once seen as formidable — is being ripped apart by the Ukrainian military.

Link

It seems that Russia is too corrupt and too incompetent to replenish those losses anytime soon.

[mr.WHO]

It seems that Russia is too corrupt and too incompetent to replenish those losses anytime soon.

It's not problem of corruption - the resources and people are there - the problem is logictics - getting things that are needed to where they needed in amount they needed, while avoiding HIMARS biathlon.

In order to just supply all mobilized reserves, Russia would have to have peak western logistic...which she doesn't.

Instead of tank biathlons, Russia should have made forklift biathlon and palette biathlon.

[EGO_Aut]

NATO's mandate is to defend NATO territory, and Ukraine is not a member. - And the idea of going into direct conflict with Russia is not one Western governments will willingly entertain, not least because of the genuine fear of massive escalation.

So they support Ukraine as best they feel able.

But Russia has already caused damage to NATO countries. And now Russia will deploy nuclear weapons near the borders of NATO? How can you protect the Alliance if you do nothing? Russia will always be a threat. Wouldn't it be better now to get rid of Russia while it is weak and while it has not yet deployed nuclear weapons near Poland?

Where have they caused damage to NATO countrys?

[burger1]

U.S., U.K., Romanian special forces hold military drills in Moldova - source might not be the most reliable

https://news.yahoo.com/moldovan-defense ... 22935.html

Sweden, Norway, Finland and Denmark combine air forces.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/no ... 023-03-24/

It looks like Finland will be in NATO maybe in April. Just Turkey left to ratify their membership.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hu ... 023-03-27/

So it might be hard to attack Sweden without hitting NATO forces since they will be integrated. It also opens Sweden up for NATO surveillance. Seems like a way around NATO membership if necessary.

[burger1]

NATO's mandate is to defend NATO territory, and Ukraine is not a member. - And the idea of going into direct conflict with Russia is not one Western governments will willingly entertain, not least because of the genuine fear of massive escalation.

So they support Ukraine as best they feel able.

But Russia has already caused damage to NATO countries. And now Russia will deploy nuclear weapons near the borders of NATO? How can you protect the Alliance if you do nothing? Russia will always be a threat. Wouldn't it be better now to get rid of Russia while it is weak and while it has not yet deployed nuclear weapons near Poland?

Where have they caused damage to NATO countrys?

The s300 that landed in Poland killing people was due to the war. Acts of sabotage. Environmental damage. Attacks on trade ships and killing people from other countries. Attacks on NATO drones and other acts of aggression. If people want to go to war they can just make stuff up no need for actual stuff to happen. Defending Ukraine is defending NATO and other countries. Countries including Russia have an obligation to defend Ukraine due to agreements.

[mr.WHO]

Lets not forget that Ukraine gave away their nukes in exchange for US, UK and Russia guarantee Ukraine territorial integrity.

Russia violate Ukraine integrity, while US and UK support is in accordance to Ukraine regaining territorial integrity.

[clakclak]

At some point Russia will feel threatened enough to use nuclear weapons.

Why would Russia trigger the nuclear hornets nest? I don't see that Russia is currently threatened at all (other than economically and that would only get worse with nuclear war) and we already know that no one is in favor of attacking on Russian soil. So how could Russia feel threatened enough to use nuclear weapons?

The question I was answering was why NATO did not join the war as a conflict party with its own armies. I will stand by the argument that if NATO armies begin advancing through Ukraine Russia would extremely fast start considering the use of WMD's against said armies and supply lines.

The context of my comment is important to understand it, that is why I quoted the comment I am replying to.

[chew-ie]

Vacation is over, in Crimea there seems to be an ongoing wave of return journeys back to the russian mainland. Some russian tourists are even sure not to come back as they try to sell their property on the peninsula.

Even if just rumors, I'd say it is a good call to move civilians out of there now. Once Crimea is contested, there might be no safe passage left.

@sources:
- [rumor] return journeys @twitter: https://nitter.at/Heroiam_Slava/status/ ... 09579520#m
- [rumor] real estate sellout @msn https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA192KAH

[mr.WHO]

These rumors were circulating since summer last year.
Still very skeptical on odds of contesting Crimea anytime soon.

This would require very special specially special operational capabilities for Russian army and leadership.

The chance is non-zero, but still very low.

[fiksal]

On the other hand, what seemed like a uncertain rule of the war guideline before - here's war in Ukraine, but here's Crimea, a frozen and totally different confict, - a no longer such guideline.

Since Russia said part of Ukraine is Russia too, which has active armed conflict, there's little difference it seems between that unrecognized Russian territory and another unrecognized Russian territory.

NATO still draws the line on the original Russian borders though.

[burger1]

At some point Russia will feel threatened enough to use nuclear weapons.

Why would Russia trigger the nuclear hornets nest? I don't see that Russia is currently threatened at all (other than economically and that would only get worse with nuclear war) and we already know that no one is in favor of attacking on Russian soil. So how could Russia feel threatened enough to use nuclear weapons?

The question I was answering was why NATO did not join the war as a conflict party with its own armies. I will stand by the argument that if NATO armies begin advancing through Ukraine Russia would extremely fast start considering the use of WMD's against said armies and supply lines.

The context of my comment is important to understand it, that is why I quoted the comment I am replying to.

Russia has already used it's largest non nuclear weapons in Ukraine a while ago. Vacuum bombs in Ukraine.

[Falcrack]

On the other hand, what seemed like a uncertain rule of the war guideline before - here's war in Ukraine, but here's Crimea, a frozen and totally different confict, - a no longer such guideline.

Since Russia said part of Ukraine is Russia too, which has active armed conflict, there's little difference it seems between that unrecognized Russian territory and another unrecognized Russian territory.

NATO still draws the line on the original Russian borders though.

Exactly, by annexing Zaporizhia, Kherson, Donetsk and Luhansk, Putin puts them all on the same level as Crimea. Had Putin not done that, there might be a tiny bit more justification for asking Ukraine to stop short at trying to retake Crimea, or trying to gain back the Donetsk and Luhansk territories held by separatists pre Feb 2022. Now, there is no more distinction between Crimea, the DPR and LPR, and Russia's other more recent invasions.

In other words, Putin himself brought Crimea back into the "fair game" territory for Ukraine to try to reclaim.

[Gavrushka]

I'm struggling to see a scenario, with Putin still in power, where Crimea is taken away from him. I think if Ukrainian troops were to start taking that territory back, he really would try unthinkable options. - I am not sure his orders would be followed, however.

And I did chuckle at the unarguable logic of how Crimea is, from Putin's own mouth, no different to the other occupied Ukrainian territories from a defence and response viewpoint.

He really is likely to lose this war, isn't he? Such a thought seemed inconceivable when the invasion first started.

[Gavrushka]

Masha's school (she's 12) contacted the police after she drew this picture...

And her father was sentenced to two years in prison. - What sort of a dreadful country is Russia now? Is there really a way back, or is if just another autocratic and authoritarian state for the foreseeable future?

[abisha1980]

Why would Russia trigger the nuclear hornets nest? I don't see that Russia is currently threatened at all (other than economically and that would only get worse with nuclear war) and we already know that no one is in favor of attacking on Russian soil. So how could Russia feel threatened enough to use nuclear weapons?

The question I was answering was why NATO did not join the war as a conflict party with its own armies. I will stand by the argument that if NATO armies begin advancing through Ukraine Russia would extremely fast start considering the use of WMD's against said armies and supply lines.

The context of my comment is important to understand it, that is why I quoted the comment I am replying to.

Russia has already used it's largest non nuclear weapons in Ukraine a while ago. Vacuum bombs in Ukraine.

then it was used 1 time or something this is first time i hear they used a MOAB.
i was already asking my self why it's still not being used.

[chew-ie]

Masha's school (she's 12) contacted the police after she drew this picture...

And her father was sentenced to two years in prison. - What sort of a dreadful country is Russia now? Is there really a way back, or is if just another autocratic and authoritarian state for the foreseeable future?

We had worse conditions in Germany when the Nazis were at their peak. It will pass, but it will be painful and wastes a lot of time for quite some generations. I don't envy any russian youngster for the next 1-2 generations.

[Warenwolf]

Masha's school (she's 12) contacted the police after she drew this picture...

And her father was sentenced to two years in prison. - What sort of a dreadful country is Russia now? Is there really a way back, or is if just another autocratic and authoritarian state for the foreseeable future?

Way back to what?
Except of brief period of liberal democracy in 90s (which basically was just lot of chaos for most Russians), there was never a proper democracy in Russia. This is replay of stalinist methods.

[Gavrushka]

Masha's school (she's 12) contacted the police after she drew this picture...

And her father was sentenced to two years in prison. - What sort of a dreadful country is Russia now? Is there really a way back, or is if just another autocratic and authoritarian state for the foreseeable future?

Way back to what?
Except of brief period of liberal democracy in 90s (which basically was just lot of chaos for most Russians), there was never a proper democracy in Russia. This is replay of stalinist methods.

Perhaps my vision is skewed by my time spent there during that 90s period, and yet I do have some slightly surreal recollections, mainly surrounding the police, from back then.

[clakclak]

Why would Russia trigger the nuclear hornets nest? I don't see that Russia is currently threatened at all (other than economically and that would only get worse with nuclear war) and we already know that no one is in favor of attacking on Russian soil. So how could Russia feel threatened enough to use nuclear weapons?

The question I was answering was why NATO did not join the war as a conflict party with its own armies. I will stand by the argument that if NATO armies begin advancing through Ukraine Russia would extremely fast start considering the use of WMD's against said armies and supply lines.

The context of my comment is important to understand it, that is why I quoted the comment I am replying to.

Russia has already used it's largest non nuclear weapons in Ukraine a while ago. Vacuum bombs in Ukraine.

But at least from what we can tell you they have not used stuff like poison gas or dirty bombs.

[EGO_Aut]

But Russia has already caused damage to NATO countries. And now Russia will deploy nuclear weapons near the borders of NATO? How can you protect the Alliance if you do nothing? Russia will always be a threat. Wouldn't it be better now to get rid of Russia while it is weak and while it has not yet deployed nuclear weapons near Poland?

Where have they caused damage to NATO countrys?

The s300 that landed in Poland killing people was due to the war. Acts of sabotage. Environmental damage. Attacks on trade ships and killing people from other countries. Attacks on NATO drones and other acts of aggression. If people want to go to war they can just make stuff up no need for actual stuff to happen. Defending Ukraine is defending NATO and other countries. Countries including Russia have an obligation to defend Ukraine due to agreements.

No, they did not.