Russia-Ukraine War

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abisha1980
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by abisha1980 » Wed, 29. Mar 23, 21:03

I read that Poleland getting 300.000 Navo troops
they will declare war on Russia if they win in Uk. (Navo declare war)

very worrisome would likely increase the likely hood of Nuclear weapons on the battlefield. and likely on cities.
oh and if you think meh i don't care about my city not being target. problem is nuclear weapons will force massive cooldown and will make vegetables grow almost impossible.
so it concerns the whole world basically
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Falcrack » Wed, 29. Mar 23, 21:13

abisha1980 wrote:
Wed, 29. Mar 23, 21:03
I read that Poleland getting 300.000 Navo troops
they will declare war on Russia if they win in Uk. (Navo declare war)

very worrisome would likely increase the likely hood of Nuclear weapons on the battlefield. and likely on cities.
oh and if you think meh i don't care about my city not being target. problem is nuclear weapons will force massive cooldown and will make vegetables grow almost impossible.
so it concerns the whole world basically
100% BS. NATO will not preemptively declare war. And supplies to Ukraine will increase dramatically if Russia appears ready to.actually win in Ukraine, preveting any sort of easy Russian victory. But if Russia uses nukes or WMDs first in Ukraine, there is a very real possibility to expect some NATO/US attacks on Russian military forces.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by felter » Wed, 29. Mar 23, 22:53

NATO is a 100% pure collective defence force, they do not and cannot declare war on another nation unless that nation attacks another NATO member first and even then the attacked nation has to use article 5 and that has only been used once in the history of NATO and that was done by the Americans after the 9.11 attack.
NATO wrote:
Collective defence means that an attack against one Ally is considered as an attack against all Allies.

The principle of collective defence is enshrined in Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.

NATO invoked Article 5 for the first time in its history after the 9/11 terrorist attacks against the United States.

NATO has taken collective defence measures on several occasions, including in response to the situation in Syria and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

NATO has standing forces on active duty that contribute to the Alliance’s collective defence efforts on a permanent basis.
So in reality Poland could attack Russia if it wanted too, but it couldn't then use that attack to get the rest of NATO involved as that is not how Article 5 works, Russia would have to be the aggressor and attack Poland first then Poland would be entitled to use article 5 and the rest of NATO would be honoured bound to come to Poland's aid. While NATO has military on stand by at all times they are not effectively an active and participant force in any war, they are just on standby to come to the defence of any NATO ally that requires assistance from being attacked. Putin wants Russia to think that NATO is going to attack Russia but as I have just pointed out that is not going to happen unless Russia attacks a NATO member first, meaning Russians have nothing to worry about NATO attacking, it is all just a red herring to trick the Russian population into capitulation and doing what Putin wants them to do.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Wed, 29. Mar 23, 23:21

Germany announced today that we are going to give Ukraine 12 billion € in additional military aid. Just to put this into perspective and not to downtalk Poland, just so we have something to compare this to, Poland's military budget was 13.6 billion € in 2021. They were the 20th most well funded military on the planet that year.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran » Wed, 29. Mar 23, 23:30

Falcrack wrote:
Wed, 29. Mar 23, 21:13
[...] supplies to Ukraine will increase dramatically if Russia appears ready to actually win in Ukraine, preventing any sort of easy Russian victory.
Yes, and let's not forget that the Biden administration explicitly told us this in 2022:
[...] Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin told reporters after a trip to Ukraine’s capital city of Kyiv that “we want to see Russia weakened to the degree that it can’t do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine.”
Link

This is not somebody's opinion, this is official foreign policy. Russia has suffered many losses in Ukraine and it will continue to suffer losses until they have to retreat like the Soviets did from Afghanistan.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Tamina » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 00:51

clakclak wrote:
Wed, 29. Mar 23, 23:21
Germany announced today that we are going to give Ukraine 12 billion € in additional military aid. Just to put this into perspective and not to downtalk Poland, just so we have something to compare this to, Poland's military budget was 13.6 billion € in 2021. They were the 20th most well funded military on the planet that year.
I assume, without any knowledge and judgement, that most of that money comes right back to the Western countries because Ukraine is depending on the Western war industry. Just something I thought about loud when I read this.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by clakclak » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 11:58

Tamina wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 00:51
clakclak wrote:
Wed, 29. Mar 23, 23:21
Germany announced today that we are going to give Ukraine 12 billion € in additional military aid. Just to put this into perspective and not to downtalk Poland, just so we have something to compare this to, Poland's military budget was 13.6 billion € in 2021. They were the 20th most well funded military on the planet that year.
I assume, without any knowledge and judgement, that most of that money comes right back to the Western countries because Ukraine is depending on the Western war industry. Just something I thought about loud when I read this.
Yes I would very much assume that it works like that. Basically this could be seen as a 12 billion € coupon to be cashed in with Reihenmetall and the like.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by euclid » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 14:05

View of a Nobel Prize winning journalist which is pretty much how I see it.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 16:44

clakclak wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 11:58
Tamina wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 00:51
clakclak wrote:
Wed, 29. Mar 23, 23:21
Germany announced today that we are going to give Ukraine 12 billion € in additional military aid. Just to put this into perspective and not to downtalk Poland, just so we have something to compare this to, Poland's military budget was 13.6 billion € in 2021. They were the 20th most well funded military on the planet that year.
I assume, without any knowledge and judgement, that most of that money comes right back to the Western countries because Ukraine is depending on the Western war industry. Just something I thought about loud when I read this.
Yes I would very much assume that it works like that. Basically this could be seen as a 12 billion € coupon to be cashed in with Reihenmetall and the like.

It's worth to notice it's 12 billion € of German aid over unspecified period (the article suggest period between 2024 and 2032).
Poland military budget 13.6 billion € in 2021 is annual and since then got increased for "no apparent reason" :roll: , plus we decided to throw additional 20 bil € for "emergency/flash buy spree" for next few years and "no particular reason" either.

Since R-U War it's good to treat weapons as long term investment and value holder.
Before 2022 our old T-72s were treated as functional junk, yet after February 2022 they became rolling 50 tons of treasure :)
All these K2, K9, HIMARS and many more purchases could sit in the warehouse for next 40 years, never used, until someone would need them (like South Korea for example, or Ukraine round 3).

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:09

mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 16:44
clakclak wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 11:58
Tamina wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 00:51


I assume, without any knowledge and judgement, that most of that money comes right back to the Western countries because Ukraine is depending on the Western war industry. Just something I thought about loud when I read this.
Yes I would very much assume that it works like that. Basically this could be seen as a 12 billion € coupon to be cashed in with Reihenmetall and the like.

It's worth to notice it's 12 billion € of German aid over unspecified period (the article suggest period between 2024 and 2032).
Poland military budget 13.6 billion € in 2021 is annual and since then got increased for "no apparent reason" :roll: , plus we decided to throw additional 20 bil € for "emergency/flash buy spree" for next few years and "no particular reason" either.

Since R-U War it's good to treat weapons as long term investment and value holder.
Before 2022 our old T-72s were treated as functional junk, yet after February 2022 they became rolling 50 tons of treasure :)
All these K2, K9, HIMARS and many more purchases could sit in the warehouse for next 40 years, never used, until someone would need them (like South Korea for example, or Ukraine round 3).
In my opinion the money would be better invested in nuclear ICBMs or SDI´s :D
As we can see vs RU, NATO would have more then enough conventional firepower, even EU but EU has no real Nuke potential.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:28

EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:09
In my opinion the money would be better invested in nuclear ICBMs or SDI´s :D
As we can see vs RU, NATO would have more then enough conventional firepower, even EU but EU has no real Nuke potential.
As long as there is nuclear non-proliferation policy, having US, UK and France on our side is just fine.

As for SDI, we already have US Missile Defense Base.
Our national multi-layer missile defense program started to materialize this year with purchases of various missile systems from US/UK and domestic production (GROM launchers are getting thic for extra range and capabilities).

However, in bad case scenario, if Russia would be stupid enough to nuke Ukraine, I could see Poland building nukes together with South Korea (we are building reactors with them already).
Nuclear Power nuking non-nuclear country will make non-proliferation policy null and void, since everyone without nukes will basically be a prey.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:45

mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:28
EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:09
In my opinion the money would be better invested in nuclear ICBMs or SDI´s :D
As we can see vs RU, NATO would have more then enough conventional firepower, even EU but EU has no real Nuke potential.
As long as there is nuclear non-proliferation policy, having US, UK and France on our side is just fine.

As for SDI, we already have US Missile Defense Base.
Our national multi-layer missile defense program started to materialize this year with purchases of various missile systems from US/UK and domestic production (GROM launchers are getting thic for extra range and capabilities).

However, in bad case scenario, if Russia would be stupid enough to nuke Ukraine, I could see Poland building nukes together with South Korea (we are building reactors with them already).
Nuclear Power nuking non-nuclear country will make non-proliferation policy null and void, since everyone without nukes will basically be a prey.
I was talking about nuclear EU ICBMs (China more or less later...), and I think trusting the US (not only their "sdi") is a big mistake. UK is out of EU, France dont have ICBM´s and US......There, the dollar rules and the belief in God :roll:
Spying on, sanctioning and sabotaging allies is perfectly legal, as is regime changes, as long as it serves their own interests.
The poles should not only invest the eu funds in armaments, and if so, let them flow back into the eu. Poland in particular could play a leading role within the EU.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 22:02

As a matter of practicality for Poland - why would we even need an ICBMs?
I don't see a pressing matter or absolutely, positively wiping out Vladivostok on the other side of planet.

It would be much more practical to have something much simplier, short/medium range - like strap on tactical Nuke on HIMARS and work out the extended range.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Thu, 30. Mar 23, 22:42

mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 22:02
As a matter of practicality for Poland - why would we even need an ICBMs?
I don't see a pressing matter or absolutely, positively wiping out Vladivostok on the other side of planet.

It would be much more practical to have something much simplier, short/medium range - like strap on tactical Nuke on HIMARS and work out the extended range.
You won't reach Siberia or Beijing with a 500 km range. And without EMP you are not seriously capable of first strike. Patriots or Abrams, which cost a lot more, won't help you.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 » Fri, 31. Mar 23, 00:24

Finland's now in NATO so just Sweden and possibly other countries left.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tu ... r-AA19hCnF

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO » Fri, 31. Mar 23, 16:35

burger1 wrote:
Fri, 31. Mar 23, 00:24
Finland's now in NATO so just Sweden and possibly other countries left.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/tu ... r-AA19hCnF
A day or two ago Russia put Hungary and Turkey on the list of "countries hostile to Russia".
I expect stamp on Sweden accession to NATO sooner than later :D

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Sun, 2. Apr 23, 11:03

EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:45

I was talking about nuclear EU ICBMs (China more or less later...), and I think trusting the US (not only their "sdi") is a big mistake. UK is out of EU, France dont have ICBM´s and US......There, the dollar rules and the belief in
France does have ICBM, M51, a submarine launched missiles, has officially stated range of 8000 km. That being said, I find this talk about EU nuclear armament irrelevant since EU is not a military but a economical and a political alliance (this can be debated) and has no mechanisms for coordinating military strategy*. Macron did try something but that is more about him trying to carve out more influence and went of course nowhere.
That being said, almost all EU members are NATO members. And NATO is not going anywhere any time soon.


*Not that I can see that working ever - I can see several current eu leaders stalling an EU response to Russian invasion on Baltic EU countries.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by EGO_Aut » Sun, 2. Apr 23, 13:47

Warenwolf wrote:
Sun, 2. Apr 23, 11:03
EGO_Aut wrote:
Thu, 30. Mar 23, 21:45

I was talking about nuclear EU ICBMs (China more or less later...), and I think trusting the US (not only their "sdi") is a big mistake. UK is out of EU, France dont have ICBM´s and US......There, the dollar rules and the belief in
France does have ICBM, M51, a submarine launched missiles, has officially stated range of 8000 km. That being said, I find this talk about EU nuclear armament irrelevant since EU is not a military but a economical and a political alliance (this can be debated) and has no mechanisms for coordinating military strategy*. Macron did try something but that is more about him trying to carve out more influence and went of course nowhere.
That being said, almost all EU members are NATO members. And NATO is not going anywhere any time soon.


*Not that I can see that working ever - I can see several current eu leaders stalling an EU response to Russian invasion on Baltic EU countries.
Yes it is irrelevant, and this makes the EU weak. And this is why, when a conflict starts everyone in the EU looks and ask first what US will do.
The best thing would be to dissolve the EU and re-establish it as a nation. Or like US diplomat Nuland did say: Fuc# the EU!
The EU could react much more flexibly to conflicts like those in the UKR, externally and internally.

The Baltic states are safe, they are in NATO.

Ok FRA has ICBM's, I didn't know that such small missiles are called ICBMs. (110 kt,~8000km)

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf » Sun, 2. Apr 23, 15:08

EGO_Aut wrote:
Sun, 2. Apr 23, 13:47

Yes it is irrelevant, and this makes the EU weak. And this is why, when a conflict starts everyone in the EU looks and ask first what US will do.
The best thing would be to dissolve the EU and re-establish it as a nation. Or like US diplomat Nuland did say: Fuc# the EU!
The EU could react much more flexibly to conflicts like those in the UKR, externally and internally.

The Baltic states are safe, they are in NATO.
This totally unrealistic political scenario, but is highly desirable by Kremlin and China which envy that most powerful economies are aligned ideologically in one allied block.
As EU response being more flexible - I suspect, based on your early posts in this thread - that this means "morally flexible" and would involve letting Russia annex parts of Ukraine? Or do you have something else in mind.
Also if Baltic states are safe due to NATO so is EU - since almost all of its members are also part of NATO so I don't see where you are going with this.
EGO_Aut wrote:
Sun, 2. Apr 23, 13:47
Ok FRA has ICBM's, I didn't know that such small missiles are called ICBMs. (110 kt,~8000km)
There is kinda indicative of your know-how regarding missiles if you state something like this.
Each M51 has officially between 6 to 10 MIRVs containing TN75 thermonuclear 150kt warhead (probably some of these MIRVs are decoys). Only ONE of these warheads exploding in airburst over Saint Petersburg would cause 180 000+ fatalities and 400 000+ injuries.
https://nuclearsecrecy.com/nukemap/?&ai ... t=200&zm=9

And they work - unlike Kremlin's, where i bet their strategic hardware is probably rotting away just like the rest of their society.
Last edited by Warenwolf on Mon, 3. Apr 23, 09:22, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie » Sun, 2. Apr 23, 17:31

Warenwolf wrote:
Sun, 2. Apr 23, 15:08
And they work - unlike Kremlin's, where i bet their strategic hardware is probably rotting away just like the rest of their society.
With a bit of luck the first one launched by russia explodes during takeoff because of missing parts / maintenance problems.

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