Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Given that the dam was blown up at 2:50 am which is pretty close to 3 am which would be the optimal time attack civilians seems to add to the likelihood it was a deliberate act by Russia against civilians. Blow dam up at 2:50 am then 10 minutes for the water to reach civilian areas. Can't really see Ukraine not getting more powerful weapons as retribution for the attack. Nato probably still has lots of weapons left in their junk piles. Cheaper to use them then junk them.

[Observe]

I don't quite see Russia blowing up this dam. After all, they are the ones who will have to repair it if they win the war. Not an inexpensive proposition. On the other hand, I don't see the advantage for Ukraine doing it either. Is it possible that neither side blew it up?

[burger1]

Russias blown up other dams in Ukraine recently. Scorched earth policy. By the same logic why would Russia blow up anything in Ukraine since they would just have to rebuild it but they do as is very common ad evident in their destruction of cities. Melitopol.

More concerning is the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant is wired with explosives so there's a pretty good chance Russia will blow it up when they are forced to leave. If Russia isn't going to blow it up they should be removing their explosives. Same as the dam. Russia never should have had explosives on it in the first place. It ends up ultimately being Russias fault anyways due to Russia starting the invasion/war back in 2014.

[Observe]

It ends up ultimately being Russias fault anyways due to Russia starting the invasion/war back in 2014.

Russia didn't invade just for the fun of it. There is no forgiving Russia for invading, but at some point we are going to have to listen to Russia's side of the story if peace is ever to be achieved. NATO expansion to the east seems to be part of their gripe. Just as Kennedy would have invaded Cuba if they hadn't removed those nukes. This is not just a land grab on the part of Russia.

[Alan Phipps]

"NATO expansion to the east seems to be part of their gripe." I'm seeing that more as a direct result of their actions, and not so much their cause. The Russian leadership thought Ukraine and (to an extent) NATO would be paralysed by the invasion and quickly fold and bargain with them - but they couldn't have been more wrong. If it wasn't a land grab for greater Black Sea access amongst other things, then I really don't know what it was.

[notaterran]

Russia didn't invade just for the fun of it. There is no forgiving Russia for invading, but at some point we are going to have to listen to Russia's side of the story if peace is ever to be achieved. NATO expansion to the east seems to be part of their gripe.

I'm guessing Eastern European countries joined NATO because they didn't want to be under Russia's influence anymore (we see that they made the right choice, Russia won't invade them). Russia's message to NATO seems to be "let us invade and commit war crimes in peace". As for listening to Russia's side, maybe there's no need to listen to those terrorists if the Russian Federation falls just like the Soviet Union did.

[Observe]

As for listening to Russia's side, maybe there's no need to listen to those terrorists if the Russian Federation falls just like the Soviet Union did.

Some estimates have as many as 350,000 soldiers killed so far. While it appears Russia has suffered the greater percentage of deaths, Ukraine isn't too far behind them. Eventually, one or both sides will run out of human cannon fodder. I don't see the supply of weapons to be inexhaustible either. Neither seems ready to give up. So the war slogs on with pretty much zero peace discussions going on.

Meanwhile, the hope that many people seem to be holding out for, is that somehow Russia will collapse "like the Soviet Union did". But what if that doesn't happen? What if neither Russia nor Ukraine gives up? There are those who say "let's give Ukraine their Spring Offensive and see how things look then". Well, things may not look much different at the end of this year than they did last year. Then what? Peace talks anyone?

[fiksal]

@Observe
I feel you dont read my posts. Russia isnt really concerned about NATO's expansion. It's concerned about its own empire.
There's no carrot that NATO can give.

Not to mention, NATO or any other alliance or country has the authority to negotiate peace there.

Then what? Peace talks anyone?

What then, well - here's one option:

offer regions of Russia a clean start, debt free from the war that Moscow would need to pay for, if they split from Russia and form their own countries. No sanctions, nothing. Aid them, rebuild. Some, not all, may can choose democracy.

offer the rest of Russia peace, withdrawal from Ukraine (Crimea included), plan to repay for the war.

[fiksal]

on further thought, this can be interesting




I am Putin. Negotiate with me. What do you offer "me"?

[Falcrack]

A bunch of Russian troops were swept away from the flooding. As much as I would like to pin the blame on Russia for this, I think it seems more probable to me that it failed due to negligence and/or previous combat damage. I don't think either Ukraine or Russia intended it to fail, since there are consequences for the dam failure that I think both sides wanted to avoid.

[fiksal]

A bunch of Russian troops were swept away from the flooding. As much as I would like to pin the blame on Russia for this, I think it seems more probable to me that it failed due to negligence and/or previous combat damage. I don't think either Ukraine or Russia intended it to fail, since there are consequences for the dam failure that I think both sides wanted to avoid.

hard to say

the kind of organization there exists in Kremlin doesn't prevent this from happening.

one hand doesn't care what the other is doing, especially when it comes to gangs, militia, private military

[Gavrushka]

A bunch of Russian troops were swept away from the flooding. As much as I would like to pin the blame on Russia for this, I think it seems more probable to me that it failed due to negligence and/or previous combat damage. I don't think either Ukraine or Russia intended it to fail, since there are consequences for the dam failure that I think both sides wanted to avoid.

hard to say

the kind of organization there exists in Kremlin doesn't prevent this from happening.

one hand doesn't care what the other is doing, especially when it comes to gangs, militia, private military

Putin would condone human deaths on his side and by his actions as acceptable if it furthered his cause. It was strongly suspected he was behind a terrorist attack that was attributed to the Chechens some years ago. He's Stalin's spiritual successor, me thinks.

[chew-ie]

The first destroyed leopards reported by Russian MoD on monday night* seemed to be a bit premature...

@source forbes leopard-2-tank-seen-destroyed-in-russian-media-video-was-actually-a-farm-harvester/

In fact, they again demonstrated that beyond exaggeration and faking there isn't much substance to Russian reports.

*they claimed to have destroyed 8 leopards when repelling the Ukraine offensive

[Tamina]

Everybody is laughing but I feel sorry for the farmers who lost their equipment.

[chew-ie]

I admit it - I'm flabbergasted by this: not only is there a website about german military deliveries for Ukraine - it also has an english translation and an own navigation link. (I know we can make lists about everything and all - but publishing them on the web, leave alone with translations is something rare in this country)

https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-en/ ... ne-2054992

Oh, and I like those Bandvagn 206 - didn't knew them and I like their looks

[Tamina]

We are living in strange times, when countries (let alone Germany) are advertising themselves over their war efforts. I guess that is just normal in countries like the US.

[notaterran]

Well, things may not look much different at the end of this year than they did last year. Then what?

Then Russia will relive the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan because at this point the Ukrainian population is battle-hardened. They did not break, nor does it look like they will anytime soon. I don't want to think about the horrendous losses -military and civilian- that Ukraine will suffer but also there's just no way that the Russian Federation can deal with this kind of carnage for a significant amount of time, even if Putin would like to pretend otherwise.

It looks like Ukraine will receive more and better weapons later this year, so the body count on the Russian side will only get worse.

[notaterran]

I wonder how many in the Russian military believe that their forces are innumerable:



In case the image is too large here is a link.

[Falcrack]

It ends up ultimately being Russias fault anyways due to Russia starting the invasion/war back in 2014.

Russia didn't invade just for the fun of it. There is no forgiving Russia for invading, but at some point we are going to have to listen to Russia's side of the story if peace is ever to be achieved. NATO expansion to the east seems to be part of their gripe. Just as Kennedy would have invaded Cuba if they hadn't removed those nukes. This is not just a land grab on the part of Russia.

NATO expansion was only ever a convenient excuse for Putin to launch his war of aggression. He was only upset about Ukraine joining NATO because it would have put an end to his aspirations to absorb Ukraine and recreate the Soviet Union. He knew that as long as he was not planning on invading his neighbors, there was no risk of NATO launching an invasion into Russia.

A free and prosperous Ukraine is probably Putin's greatest fear, because Russians would look at Ukraine and ask themselves, if Ukraine can have freedom and prosperity, why can't we?

Putin's own belligerent actions have done more to strengthen and expand NATO than anything else. He has created his own worst enemies. Had Russia, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, chosen a path of self improvement and abandoned attempts to control and vassalize the former Soviet Republics through intimidation and the threat of force, I doubt NATO would still exist to this day, and would probably not have expanded like it did.

There comes a point where negotiations become pointless. Putin only respects power. Reason and justice and morality mean nothing to him. Negotiations with such people are not possible, because they cannot be relied upon to keep their commitments unless forced to at gunpoint.

[Warenwolf]

This is not just a land grab on the part of Russia.

It is bit telling when two neutral nations, Finland and Sweden, which sit on much better resources and abilities to judge Kremlin's motives and which were never part of the NATO asked for NATO membership the minute Kremlin started their adventure in Ukraine.

You have to be far on left or the far on the right in order to accept Kremlin's "side of the story" in 2023.