Japan/South Korea et al. Demographic Time Bombs?

[notaterran]

In your opinion, is there a reason to be alarmed or is this something that will eventually be reversed?

South Korea

Japan

In the case of Japan they're designing and building lots of robots (for example to take care of the elderly) because, well, it's Japan and they love their robots. It seems that many countries (including Japan) will have to have a conversation about immigration sooner or later.

Why do you think fertility rates are decreasing? Here's a possible explanation:

The best correlate for explaining what's going to happen in terms of a country's fertility, look at the level of the education rate among women.

Link (Jump to 39:40)

What do you think about women finding their happiness and fulfillment in their education and careers instead of the family life?

[mr.WHO]

The fertility rate seems to corelate with population density and this is global phenomenon with rising urbanization.
Even Africa is projected to go into negative population growth within 20-30 years.

More people competing for the same amount of resources (e.g. inflated housing prices in big cities) in urban areas, makes less likely to have children.
Unless you count the cattle, that was purposely breed to live that way, all animals stop breeding after certain treshold where they can't sustain themselves.

The good news is that just like population cannot grow indefinetly, the population decline isn't pernament as well. There will be level where there will be less people and more abudant resources wich will make having children easy again (e.g. like 50 years ago it was possible for one adult to sustain entire multi-children family and owning the house & stuff).

This is of course the simple model, doesn't count many this like war or virus that likes to kill the old people.

[clakclak]

[...]

What do you think about women finding their happiness and fulfillment in their education and careers instead of the family life?

Honestly what I think about it is irrelavent. I am in no position to nor do I feel a desire to dictate someone elses life and I am certainly not in a position to tell people to get kids. Japan and South Korea are free countries. The people can choose how they want to live their lives themselves.

[matthewfarmery]

[...]

What do you think about women finding their happiness and fulfillment in their education and careers instead of the family life?

Honestly what I think about it is irrelavent. I am in no position to nor do I feel a desire to dictate someone elses life and I am certainly not in a position to tell people to get kids. Japan and South Korea are free countries. The people can choose how they want to live their lives themselves.

Part of the problem with that is, this planet only has limited resources. sooner or later those resources will dry up. the amount of land needed for growth will also dry up. Even if the population goes into decline, other countries will continue to have an over abundance of kids. There is one family in the UK that has 22 children and counting. (no joke, I wish it was false) Why have that many children is beyond me.

Africa is another country that seems to think its OK to have a lot of children, yet have other countries pay for their health and education.

With global warming been a serious problem now, we humans need to be a lot more careful. Problem is, the likes of china with it's huge population, shows that one or two countries (or more) will have a major impact on the rest of us. Remember, we are all living under the same roof, if we like it or not. If something happens to this planet, its not like we can move else where.

Problem is, many don't seem to realise that or care.

[mr.WHO]

Part of the problem with that is, this planet only has limited resources. sooner or later those resources will dry up. the amount of land needed for growth will also dry up. Even if the population goes into decline, other countries will continue to have an over abundance of kids. There is one family in the UK that has 22 children and counting. (no joke, I wish it was false) Why have that many children is beyond me.

Africa is another country that seems to think its OK to have a lot of children, yet have other countries pay for their health and education.

Not true, even UN updated their projections and no longer predict global population growth beyond 2050.
Fertility is dropping globally. China is already in negative growth, nearly all Middle East countries will hit into negative growth in 15-20 years and Africa (which BTW is not a country) will hit negative growth in 20-30 years.
India is a wild card, but their fertility is dropping as well somewhere between Middle East and Africa.


The developed countries simply hit max limit and are artificially kept at it by imigration. Imigrants might have a lot of children in first generation, but then they drop this and become the same as locals by the 2nd and 3rd generation.
The families with 10+ children are the extremity and become one even in developing world.


The OP mention females making the career - it's not like that, it's not a choice anymore, but for most people it's neccesity. When you need two full time work parents to sustain a child or a few in a big city, you're kinda don't have time or resources for multiple pregnancies. That's why rural population has bigger fertility.

Women career choice might be fancy thing 20-30 years ago, but now it's no longer a choice, neither for men or women, for most of population it becomes necesity.

You could argue if it's good or bad, but this is simply market/nature regulating human population.

[clakclak]

[...]

What do you think about women finding their happiness and fulfillment in their education and careers instead of the family life?

Honestly what I think about it is irrelavent. I am in no position to nor do I feel a desire to dictate someone elses life and I am certainly not in a position to tell people to get kids. Japan and South Korea are free countries. The people can choose how they want to live their lives themselves.

[...]
Africa is another country that seems to think its OK to have a lot of children, yet have other countries pay for their health and education.
[...]

This will sound a bit aggressive and possibly condescending but if you do not even know that Africa is not a single country, then you probably should not try to comment on it. Maybe I am a bit biased here, because I actually spend time living in an African country, but the idea of other countries "paying" for their health and education is beyond laughable. The rest of the world has exploited African ressources and labour for hundreds of years now. European countries have acted like parasites sucking the continent dry, supporting dictatorships in the process to ensure that ressources can continuously be exploited. That contributes heavily to poverty. Poverty also contributes heavily to population growth as this video explains in an easy to understand way. Let me try to illustrate my point about why the idea that "other countries pay for their health and education" is dangerous, wrong and oversimplified with a story.

While I was in Namibia I met an old men. He was shirtless and had a long healed scar on his chest. We got to talking and I aksed him where he had gotten these scars. He told me that they were a small calibre bullet wound, from when he was a young boy. He told me that on his way to school he used to walk past the house of a Boar, a white South African, back then Namibia was still part of Apartheid South Africa. The Boar had a young son, who did not like him and often would shout insults at him on his way to school. One day he insulted him back, so the following day the son waited for him with a rifle and shot him. Then, nothing happend. No trial, no arrest, no nothing. The police did not care. Because during the Apartheid the life of a black person in South Africa did not really matter. Namibia became independent in 1990. If you walk around Windhoek today, even throught the townships "normal" tourists would not see, it is hard to imagine that this country and many people alive in it today suffered through not only Apartheid but also a war for independence only a bit more than 30 years ago. But it is important to remember that things were different not to long ago and you can still feel it. White people make up roughly 5% of Namibians but today they still own more than 80% of the countries wealth. This extreme inequality is undeniably a result of colonialism. While Namibia is one of the more stable countries in Africa, this inequality still slows down progress significantly.

So let's see how my homecountry "pay for their health and education" today, because it is a good way to illustrate how we allegedly pay: We (Germany) did not officially acknowledge the Herero and Nama genocide, which took place from 1904 till 1908, until the 28 May 2021, leaving aside the flimsy apology from 2004 for a moment. During the genocide it is assumed that up to 80% of the Herero people were murdered. To compare that to another horrible German crime from the 20th century; during world war 2 Poland was the country which lost the highest percent of its population at 16%. Then to make up for it, we so graciously decided to pay 1.1 billion € over the course of the next 30 years starting in 2021 in special forgein aid. Roughly at the same time we gave Lufthansa around 9 billion € so they could continue their practice of flying empty aircrafts across Europe. In fact to further illustrate why 1.1 billion € over a period of 30 years is a bit of an insult, look at this picture. That is a concert hall in Hamburg which did cost 800 million € over a way shorter period.

So no. I do not agree with your idea that African countries are the problem here. The problem is an unequal destribution of wealth, access to education and a lack of social stability. It may not be apparent to you now, but considering that Elon Musk recently earned 36 billion US$ in a single day, I am sure we will soon start seeing more and more inequality in the so called 'first world' as well which may correspond with increasing birth rates as people can no longer rely on government paid pensions, as the rich don't pay taxes and will be forced to get children to care for them in their old age unless they belong to the richest 10%.

[matthewfarmery]

Honestly what I think about it is irrelavent. I am in no position to nor do I feel a desire to dictate someone elses life and I am certainly not in a position to tell people to get kids. Japan and South Korea are free countries. The people can choose how they want to live their lives themselves.

[...]
Africa is another country that seems to think its OK to have a lot of children, yet have other countries pay for their health and education.
[...]

This will sound a bit aggressive and possibly condescending but if you do not even know that Africa is not a single country, then you probably should not try to comment on it. Maybe I am a bit biased here, because I actually spend time living in an African country, but the idea of other countries "paying" for their health and education is beyond laughable. The rest of the world has exploited African ressources and labour for hundreds of years now. European countries have acted like parasites sucking the continent dry, supporting dictatorships in the process to ensure that ressources can continuously be exploited. That contributes heavily to poverty. Poverty also contributes heavily to population growth as this video explains in an easy to understand way. Let me try to illustrate my point about why the idea that "other countries pay for their health and education" is dangerous, wrong and oversimplified with a story.

While I was in Namibia I met an old men. He was shirtless and had a long healed scar on his chest. We got to talking and I aksed him where he had gotten these scars. He told me that they were a small calibre bullet wound, from when he was a young boy. He told me that on his way to school he used to walk past the house of a Boar, a white South African, back then Namibia was still part of Apartheid South Africa. The Boar had a young son, who did not like him and often would shout insults at him on his way to school. One day he insulted him back, so the following day the son waited for him with a rifle and shot him. Then, nothing happend. No trial, no arrest, no nothing. The police did not care. Because during the Apartheid the life of a black person in South Africa did not really matter. Namibia became independent in 1990. If you walk around Windhoek today, even throught the townships "normal" tourists would not see, it is hard to imagine that this country and many people alive in it today suffered through not only Apartheid but also a war for independence only a bit more than 30 years ago. But it is important to remember that things were different not to long ago and you can still feel it. White people make up roughly 5% of Namibians but today they still own more than 80% of the countries wealth. This extreme inequality is undeniably a result of colonialism. While Namibia is one of the more stable countries in Africa, this inequality still slows down progress significantly.

So let's see how my homecountry "pay for their health and education" today, because it is a good way to illustrate how we allegedly pay: We (Germany) did not officially acknowledge the Herero and Nama genocide, which took place from 1904 till 1908, until the 28 May 2021, leaving aside the flimsy apology from 2004 for a moment. During the genocide it is assumed that up to 80% of the Herero people were murdered. To compare that to another horrible German crime from the 20th century; during world war 2 Poland was the country which lost the highest percent of its population at 16%. Then to make up for it, we so graciously decided to pay 1.1 billion € over the course of the next 30 years starting in 2021 in special forgein aid. Roughly at the same time we gave Lufthansa around 9 billion € so they could continue their practice of flying empty aircrafts across Europe. In fact to further illustrate why 1.1 billion € over a period of 30 years is a bit of an insult, look at this picture. That is a concert hall in Hamburg which did cost 800 million € over a way shorter period.

So no. I do not agree with your idea that African countries are the problem here. The problem is an unequal destribution of wealth, access to education and a lack of social stability. It may not be apparent to you now, but considering that Elon Musk recently earned 36 billion US$ in a single day, I am sure we will soon start seeing more and more inequality in the so called 'first world' as well which may correspond with increasing birth rates as people can no longer rely on government paid pensions, as the rich don't pay taxes and will be forced to get children to care for them in their old age unless they belong to the richest 10%.

I'm sorry that I hit a nerve there, I admit that Africa has been hit hard by many factors. However, the issue is, in the UK we see a lot of adverts about charities and other fund rasing methods, to get people to pay for

fresh water,
helping children to see after they contract a disease that makes them go blind, or their eye lashes turn inward and makes them go blind.
preventing men three times a girls age, marrying girls (and giving those said girls, an education. (not just in Africa, but in some India and other places around there.
Food

I think there are others too.

Take for example water aid, from my knowledge, they have been doing adverts for over 20 years, saying that they will fix the water problems in Africa period. (but doesn't say which parts of Africa, but generally I don't really bother to watch such adverts, as I just feel that they are doing a pipe dream and will never fix the water issues.

When I say education, that is from several adverts, that says the following,
"Can't believe its happening to my little girl" , (can't remember the exact line. Basically, a group of woman looking away from the camera, or looking down at the floor. (child sponsor) Another advert, saying that they will help the village to prevent children from marrying men 3 times their age, But same style of advert. (also sponsor the child's education.)

Other adverts, like food, teach a small village to make their own food with seeds that have been adapted to the climate.
Can't find any of the adverts using google, but generally I mute the volume.

How many of these adverts are nothing but pipe dreams? how many are just in it for the money? or even if someone does save a child, how many other children will take their place? or are such charities trying to meddle with things that they shouldn't? I mean, for example, just because it might be acceptable for arranged marriages and men marrying girls in that country, but because its not acceptable here in the west, UK / US. Does that give the people in the west the right to meddle?

This might be a bit off topic compared to the original topic. But considering that the UK is bombarded by adverts for the above. I just think we should stop messing with other countries affairs. Including the above. And let those countries try and sort out their own problems.

[clakclak]

[...]And let those countries try and sort out their own problems.

I am cropping the rest of your comment out not to hide it (it is right above this one), but because your argument boils in essence down to this one sentence.

"Let them sort out their own problems."

What I am trying to tell you is, that many of the problems, not all but many, are in fact NOT their own problems. They are problems caused by the outside. That is not saying that African individuals or corrupt governments are not partially to blame, but Europe, China and America have a big intrest in things not changing in Africa.

Let me give three examples:

Somalia as we know does not have a working government. So in the past European fishing fleets illegally fished infront of Somali waters and forgein countries dumped their waste of Somalia's coast as the country had no way of stopping these practices. Fishing was one of the few industries left to generate profit for the country. Eventually those profits started to dwindle due to forgein fishing fleets and environmental destruction. Somalians turned to piracy as a last resort to generate income and then Europe and the rest of the world send their warships to beat them down.

Exxon Mobile causes a giant oil spill in Nigeria, as does Shell. These are so regular that you have to really sort through articles to make sure you are talking about the same spill when commenting on one. Also: Stolen Nigerian oil worth billions of dollars is sold every year on international markets and much of the proceeds are laundered in world financial centers like Britain and the United States, a report said on Thursday.

The EU destroy's Ghana's poultry farmers by flooding markets with super cheap EU subsidiesed chickens.

And so on and on. These are the cherry on top of the tip of an historic iceberg of shit hitting Africa from all directions. One could talk for days about China's current investments, or about the uncountable ways in which European Colonialism and Neo-Colonialism shape the continent today. Trying to work up all the historic dimensions of why Africa is currently facing the problems it is facing is practically impossible. But acting as if the people there are simply responsible for all these issues is wrong.

Unless you are advocating for pulling all forgein companies from Africa, letting African countries deal with issues on their own will not work, because in their current state, which is a direct result of European colonialism, many of these countries are simply not able to put up a firm enough resistance to the influence of multi billion dollar companies and forgein governments trying to get at their ressources.

[matthewfarmery]

My knowledge of Africa isn't that great. And for most of the UK, our knowledge of Africa really comes from the media and TV commercials which I have listed. Which then gives the bad impression, that its Africa's problem, and by that, the whole of it, not part of it. (again blame the media and commercials)

It's clear your knowledge of this is very good, so again, I will apologise. I do feel that the world should really leave Africa be, and try and allow it time to recover. But given the state of which parts of Africa is in, including the parts that you listed. Then its very unlikely that Africa will ever recover from outside interference, period. So all these adverts that we see about Africa should also cease. And maybe then start to help Africa in general, in a better way. But outside influence is too strong. You are right there. I should have worded that sentence better. As in, stop outside interference, stop trying to carve up Africa like a cake that is still ready to be eaten.

The other part of the problem, is that some parts of Africa is part of the commonwealth, maybe that should end too? But like I said, blame the media, blame the countless adverts that I listed. And how the US/ UK and the EU perceive Africa and what went wrong with it as a whole.

But I will say no more on this subject. As clearly, my knowledge of this place isn't good enough to justify me talking about it.