SpaceX Starship

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Observe
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SpaceX Starship

Post by Observe » Sat, 8. Apr 23, 19:39

It's looking like Starship may attempt launch next week. What do you guys think the chances are that it'll reach orbit? If it does, what do you think the chances are that both the booster and Starship will land (in the ocean) successfully?

I find myself wondering if this is even theoretically possible. I suppose it must be, or SpaceX wouldn't be banking their future on it. What say members herein?

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Alan Phipps » Sat, 8. Apr 23, 19:47

Well this is what the owners have to say:

"Elon Musk has said Starship's debut orbital launch [next week] has a 50% chance of success, but thinks there's an 80% chance of reaching orbit by the end of the year. ...

The rocket system's second stage - the craft that would carry a crew of astronauts in the future - would then be deployed and complete a full orbit of the Earth, before re-entering the atmosphere and splashing down off Hawaii.

Meanwhile, the Super Heavy booster would attempt a landing back near the launch site. ..."


When you consider recent space launches that were called off or went wrong where those most involved were anticipating high levels of likelihood of success ... Well you can probably draw your own conclusions about the risks with this one. No doubt even a failure would be considered as a useful learning opportunity for the project.
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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Observe » Sat, 15. Apr 23, 01:42

SpaceX has cleared the final regulatory hurdle. The FAA announced Friday that it has granted a license for Starship to launch. The FAA has issued an air traffic restriction, ordering aircraft to stay clear of the launch area this coming Monday between 7 am and 10:05 am. Apparently, there will be no attempt to recover either the booster or Ship 24, which will impact the ocean at terminal velocity (if it makes it that far).

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by esd » Sun, 16. Apr 23, 22:26

Observe wrote:
Sat, 8. Apr 23, 19:39
It's looking like Starship may attempt launch next week. What do you guys think the chances are that it'll reach orbit?
Pretty low, they're not planning to do a burn to circularise the orbit apparently. Arc up, over and right back down. No belly flop manoeuvre or attempt at slowing down - expect to hit water at over 200mph.

Both mishap and success have the same outcome; an obliterated craft.
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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Observe » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 00:05

I'm guessing they may be able to gather better raw atmospheric flight data for future computer simulation if they let the thing come down without firing retro-rockets than if they tried to do a soft landing.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Gavrushka » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 11:37

Wow, so it's launching this afternoon at 14:00, UK time... It's a bit of a leviathan.

So the main point of this to collect data and see how closely it correlates to their simulation, yes? And this is nothing like the other rockets SpaceX has launched? I'm lucky enough to have a free day, so I know what I'm gonna be doing in the hour before CSK play RCB. :)
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“I…” Had she just called him fat? “I am just a different species, that’s all.”

“Well nature sure does have a sense of humour then,” Styanar said. “Shall we go inside? It’d not be a good idea for me to be spotted by others.”

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by mr.WHO » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 12:26

Hopefully it launch sucessfully or in giant fireball :D

I just hope there won't be any dissapointing last minute cancelation.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by euclid » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 14:47

35 mins. to go ... Woha, that is a big rocket ... watching it life.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by mr.WHO » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 15:12

Scrub 8 minutes before launch :(

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by chew-ie » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 15:24

meh... postponed :(

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Gavrushka » Mon, 17. Apr 23, 20:12

I sat through the whole build-up and felt cheated. They could've hit the self-destruct button just so I got my money's worth.

But CSK did win in a thrilling game against RCB, so things didn't end up all bad.
“Man, my poor head is battered,” Ed said.

“That explains its unusual shape,” Styanar said, grinning openly now. “Although it does little to illuminate just why your jowls are so flaccid or why you have quite so many chins.”

“I…” Had she just called him fat? “I am just a different species, that’s all.”

“Well nature sure does have a sense of humour then,” Styanar said. “Shall we go inside? It’d not be a good idea for me to be spotted by others.”

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Cpt.Jericho » Tue, 18. Apr 23, 16:32

As long as that thing gets a few hundred meters up instead of desintegrating on the launchpad I count it as a success. I remember the footage of other new rocket designs in the early days where exactly that happened. The first start isn't about launching a perfect working spaceship ready for a real mission. It's about finding the flaws and collect data in order to improve the design and make it reasonably safe for people to use.
The cancellation certainly was the right move when it was done. A rocket exploding in midair is much more spectacular than on ground. :lol:
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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 20. Apr 23, 16:46

Cpt.Jericho wrote:
Tue, 18. Apr 23, 16:32
The cancellation certainly was the right move when it was done. A rocket exploding in midair is much more spectacular than on ground. :lol:
Kaaboom + sick backflips before the explosion = satisactionary launch :D

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Axeface » Thu, 20. Apr 23, 18:41

Spinning at 2k km/h and not breaking up immediately? All after getting battered by massive flying chunks of tons of concrete from an explosion right under it... still flies... Insane. My mind cant even fathom how it didnt break up.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 20. Apr 23, 18:57

Oh it's even more impresive, when you account that 6 out of 33 engines malfunctioned.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Observe » Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:39

mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 20. Apr 23, 18:57
Oh it's even more impresive, when you account that 6 out of 33 engines malfunctioned.
I wonder if that is the reason for the ship spinning out of control? It would depend on the placement position of the failed engines I suppose. I also read that the separation between the booster and the starship failed, so even without the spin problem, they would have had to abort.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by mr.WHO » Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:45

Observe wrote:
Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:39
I wonder if that is the reason for the ship spinning out of control? It would depend on the placement position of the failed engines I suppose. I also read that the separation between the booster and the starship failed, so even without the spin problem, they would have had to abort.
I think these are 2 separate issues - it failed to separate but also due to random engine failure it couldn't compensate - it was doing backflips quite well, but couldn't stabilized once backflip rotation finished (engine failed mostly on one side + additional weight and center of weight imballance due to separation failure).

I think that if it would be just one issue, it's possible that Starship could handle it much better (and it would be very impresive), but 2 issues combined made it impossible to finish.


I find it impressive, the level of ship control, despite those 2 malfunction - flight control and Elon probably gathered tons of interesting data.

I'd call it a successful failure.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Observe » Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:51

mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:45
I'd call it a successful failure.
I wonder how much money this success cost? All those engines and everything else, must not be small change.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by Falcrack » Fri, 21. Apr 23, 02:00

Observe wrote:
Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:51
mr.WHO wrote:
Thu, 20. Apr 23, 19:45
I'd call it a successful failure.
I wonder how much money this success cost? All those engines and everything else, must not be small change.
I don't think it had a payload. The primary purpose of this flight was to see what if any design flaws needed to be fixed. As long as they learn from it, it was a success.

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Re: SpaceX Starship

Post by felter » Fri, 21. Apr 23, 02:08

You know what I hate, if I was to drop a bag or a can in the streets I would be fined for littering, these guys blow up a massive rocket spreading a lot of waste and pollutants over a massive area and then just walk away from it without any kind of worry or care about any damage that they have done, and no one seems to give a damn :(
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