Russia-Ukraine War

[chew-ie]

Really crazy ... wonder what this is about. Scapegoating Shoigu and presenting Putin "a way out of the war"? ATM the main message seems to be "you were lied to by the elites about the reasons for this war and the current progress".

edit After Putins speech it seems more like a lesson for the russian people to bolstering the resolve against "all those who oppose russia" / prevent further defections.

Speech fragments @bbc.com: https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-66006142

[EGO_Aut]

There are rumors that Wagner took Rostov.
https://youtu.be/oyRpa3vdI_E -TheSun
A new tactic to unite Russia

[Gavrushka]

Dear Lord, Sky News are now reporting that Wagner have control of the military HQ in Rostov, from where all Ukraine operational decisions are made. - Apparently the security forces Wagner meet remain passive... I am not sure if this means they sympathise, or are merely terrified.

There's gonna be a lot of news today, and Putin has already described Prigozhin's actions as a 'mortal blow'.

Sky News live update feed.

Gotta say, I never saw this one coming. Can anyone predict where it will lead?

Saw this tweet which made me chuckle:

Imagine if Putin gets deposed by his former cook.

[Alan Phipps]

Whilst Russia's internal issue will give some respite and advantage to Ukraine during its counter-offensive, I don't think the likely outcomes of this particular insurrection have good portents for Russia's future relationship with the West post resolution in Ukraine (whatever that may be).

This seems to be a case of summoning a demon to do your bidding and losing control such that it turns on the summoner.

[Warenwolf]

Apparently the security forces Wagner meet remain passive... I am not sure if this means they sympathise, or are merely terrified.

If true . historically it kinda has precedence in an authoritarian regime. Everyone watches which way dice fall before committing.
Really strange situation however you slice it...

[Gavrushka]

Whilst Russia's internal issue will give some respite and advantage to Ukraine during its counter-offensive, I don't think the likely outcomes of this particular insurrection have good portents for Russia's future relationship with the West post resolution in Ukraine (whatever that may be).

This seems to be a case of summoning a demon to do your bidding and losing control such that it turns on the summoner.

You may be right, but the very visible insurrection may just have a more lasting effect on the populace. - Putin has always controlled the domestic narrative, for a generation, and now there's someone (in part) hijacking that. It could ferment enough discontent, as Prigozhin is the guy in the audience who stopped clapping their illustrious leader before everyone else.

As Warenwolf says, Russia may just be waiting to see how this one plays out to see whether to condone or condemn. - Hope those fences are well padded.

Oh - interesting point made. - It's suggested Prigozhin miscalculated, and may have thought he'd have Putin's backing in overthrowing the Defence Ministry. I can't keep up... (full article is linked in my first post - timestamp 9:53.)

[Warenwolf]

You may be right, but the very visible insurrection may just have a more lasting effect on the populace. - Putin has always controlled the domestic narrative, for a generation, and now there's someone (in part) hijacking that. It could ferment enough discontent, as Prigozhin is the guy in the audience who stopped clapping their illustrious leader before everyone else.

Depends on how is he viewed among the general public. If he is viewed as thug, don't expect many to identify with him.

Anyways, I just checked the road conditions between Rostov on Don and Moscow (via Voronezh) - unusual number of road closed signs between the two cities. May be a very bad road too, so what do I know.

[UnknownObject]

Depends on how is he viewed among the general public. If he is viewed as thug, don't expect many to identify with him.

No certainity at the moment. A great part of Russians is loyal to Putin and is controllable by mass media. But another great part, unsatisfied by how the war is going, sympathizes Prigozhin as a "Bold Truth-Teller and Treason-Exposer". But this can change.

[Gavrushka]

Someone mentioned a Russian aircraft downed by Wagner. - Ukraine Weapons Tracker posted about this, and that means they'll be using channels to authenticate it.

Link to tweet with video.

[mr.WHO]

When you think you're watching bad Netflix adaptation for very poor Tom Clancys' fandom...but it real life Russia.

[EGO_Aut]

Missile strike on Rostov

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpr/status ... 0337587201

[mr.WHO]

This is just a rumor territory, but there is a chance that GRU (miltary intelligence) units send to pacify Wagner HQ either defected to Wagner or simply stay idle and neutral towards Wagner.

There is a long standing animosity between GRU and FSB (which is Putin from and favorite).

I think that Wagner on it's own doesn't stand a chance, but with GRU support it might be VERY interesting.

[chew-ie]

Yeah, it's really chaotic. They fly mission against the Wagner convoys (so bombing "normal" streets) and apparently a raffinery which was seized by Wagner. All the while Wagner is fighting the aircrafts (helicopters). And civis are all over the place

[mr.WHO]

Oryx just made laught maniacally:

Chef’s Special - Documenting Equipment Losses During The 2023 Wagner Group Mutiny:
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2023/06/c ... pment.html

Russian-Ukrainian war map, but Russia is invading Russia:
https://www.google.com/maps/d/embed?mid ... g&entry=yt


Edit:

Ladies and Gentelmen, we found him - the last sane person in Russia - please send the extraction team:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 8658306049

[UnknownObject]

[chew-ie]

Ladies and Gentelmen, we found him - the last sane person in Russia - please send the extraction team:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 8658306049

Well, somebody has to clean up this mess...

[Warenwolf]

I am far more interested in whose side the strategic rocket forces support.

During the SSSR era they had control mechanisms* for preventing the firing of an nuclear tipped missile within the SSSR by a rogue actor but who known what state that (or equivalent system) is currently in Russia. Whenever I thought the bottom of ineptness was reached, Kremlin proved me wrong.


*I can't remember the name - I have the book describing it in my apartment but I am currently in other part of the country.

[Tamina]

At best they support none and will not launch for anyone.

---

My bet is currently on Putin. I don't know what Wagner reasonably thinks they can accomplish.

[notaterran]

If most of Russia's conscripts are in Ukraine then perhaps Wagner could take Moscow if they wanted to. At this point China might decide to invade Russia and take a chunk for themselves using some historical claim or something

[Observe]

If most of Russia's conscripts are in Ukraine then perhaps Wagner could take Moscow if they wanted to.

I don't see Wagner succeeding...unless they can obtain a nuclear weapon, or unless a sizable number of Russian troops join Wagner. Reports are of Wagner apparently heading toward Moscow. I don't see what their aim is here and I don't see them making it that far anyway.