Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Poland election coming up so lots of crazy shenanigans. Poland stops (?) supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain dispute. Probably Poland is running short on weapons and will continue operating repair facilities for Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ts-dispute

Both Ukraine and Russia launching large drone/missile attacks on each other.

Ukraine still advances and has apparently blown up more planes and other stuff.

Russian Lancet drones are apparently now able to fly far enough to attack Ukrainian airbases behind their defence lines.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... bfa969f9e3

[mr.WHO]

Poland election coming up so lots of crazy shenanigans. Poland stops (?) supplying weapons to Ukraine over grain dispute. Probably Poland is running short on weapons and will continue operating repair facilities for Ukraine.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ts-dispute

The grain dispute is much more complex than just the simple headline.
It's not only grain but multiple agricultural products.
Ukraine can simply offer dumping prices because much cheaper fertilizers, use of banned in EU pesticides and not adhering to quality control (e.g. selling industrial grain to mills for flour).
When asked for EU to help with dealing with this issue, EU proposed 200 milion Euro one-time compensation, for whole agriculture industry, across 5 countries (Poland, Slovakya, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria) - that's not even a joke, that's an insult.

The grain deal was suppose to help Africa not to starve, not to ruin whole industry across 1/3 of Europe.
This reeks corruption at the highest levels.


As for elections in Poland - this whole issue with agriculture, gave boost in polls to Konfederacja (literally polish AfD - the only party that doesn't condemn Russia and is openly anti-Ukrainian).
This is really big brain move from Ukraine. It might create the situation, where neither leading party, nor opposition will be able to form majority without Konfederacja.

Additionally there are possible earlier elections in Slovakya and the guy who is most likely to win is basically Orban 2.0.
Romania is in grain deal issue as well so how long till they get aggravated as well?

Ukraine possibly pulled a reverse Sun Tzu - that's how you can achive total defeat without a single shot.

[EGO_Aut]

EU took the cheap grain and sold it to the industry, EU farmers are upset, but bread is still expensive?

And for Afrika?....Maybe they did or said bad things to Fr.. äh. EU.

mr.WHO:
"Ukraine can simply offer dumping prices because .......... and not adhering to quality control" - THIS makes me really sad, but with Uran Ammo, everything will get better.

[burger1]

Pretty sure the grain thing can be dealt with. Probably caused by business people/farmers. Government regulations should be able to fix it. Maybe Ukraine needs to burn some of it's crops and get subsidized by their government? Or Africa or other regions can step up and take the grain targeting Russian grain sales and hurting Russia's economy.

It's not often things decrease in price. The grocery stores and other people are probably enjoying the extra money. Same as Canada.

Looks like the republicans are messing around with stuff again.

Armenia Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict might be flaring up despite the surrender.

Still surprised by lack of mass production upscaling by Ukrainian allies. Shouldn't have taken more than 3 months at most.

[Observe]

Looks like the republicans are messing around with stuff again.

We all knew this was coming. A majority of Americans (around 55%) are opposed to additional funding to support Ukraine. It's not just Republicans. Of course once the war ends, we also all know that Ukraine will be asking for who knows how many 100's of billions (more likely trillions) to rebuild its destroyed country. All this, while the U.S. is spending something like 1.4 trillion dollars more than it is collecting in revenue. Such immense deficit is causing a lot of pain for struggling Americans at home. So yes, people (not just politicians) are casting an increasingly dim view of the war.

Zelensky is in town again, pleading Congress for more money. This does not sell well, when the U.S. is looking at a looming government shutdown, with defense spending being one of the major bones of contention.

[mr.WHO]

Pretty sure the grain thing can be dealt with. Probably caused by business people/farmers. Government regulations should be able to fix it. Maybe Ukraine needs to burn some of it's crops and get subsidized by their government? Or Africa or other regions can step up and take the grain targeting Russian grain sales and hurting Russia's economy.

It's not often things decrease in price. The grocery stores and other people are probably enjoying the extra money. Same as Canada.

That's the craziest thing out of whole situation - the tranzit is going unobscured, yet both Ukraine and EU expect from us to open OUR market to Ukraine agriculture products (not only grain, it's multiple other vegie, diary and meat) - basically commiting agricultural suicide.

If only it would cause prices to drop, but are we so naive to ever see them dropping?
Of course not, the prices will remain the same, but the difference will be a profit for various shady individuals, who will look the other way.

If Germans or Western Europe want this grain, them by all mean have them, but do not try to screw us and our own economy.

[EGO_Aut]

It was actually intended that the EU would ensure the transit of UKR grain to Africa - which needs it much more urgently and is essential for survival!
But that was apparently...forgotten?

[Warenwolf]

If Germans or Western Europe want this grain, them by all mean have them, but do not try to screw us and our own economy.

Yeah, except exports of Polish (and rest of E-Europe) products like rapeseed and wheat to rest of the EU would tank - I don't think internal market is the REAL issue here. Which is why transit of goods from UKR is an issue also here.

Also saying "screw us and our own economy" in this context will sound bit weird to a german or italian average joe who Polish politicians (rightfully so) asked to stop using cheap Russian oil - which directly hurt the economy of their countries. Take it as you will, my intention is not to insult anyone here.

I would go so far and say that neither side have acted as grown up in this problem. EU should have offered transfer rights for Ukraine with no taxes and kept sales quotes (to EU market) to levels they were before the war . And PiS and Zielenski should not have aired their frustrations out in the news papers but rather fixed this sitting down as normal people. Instead we get latest circus.

I mean, I was born on Balkan, I get the frustration, I don't need that explained. But at same time.... what is the end game here? Ukraine which collapses economically will cause Putin to have his border next to the countries that are having issues with UKR grain exports. How good will that be for local economy?

[burger1]

So different versions of Poland weapons to Ukraine: Version 1 - Poland's already up to giving Ukraine equipment again but just not the newest stuff. Version 2 - It was a misinterpretation of what someone said and everything is the same as before.

Ukraine blows up another military base and it's planes. Apparently strapping tires to your planes to protect them doesn't work.

War continues with Ukraine targeting air defence systems, supplies and artillery to clear the way for further advances and air strikes. Crimea is pretty much open to airstrikes now.

[mr.WHO]

Yeah, except exports of Polish (and rest of E-Europe) products like rapeseed and wheat to rest of the EU would tank - I don't think internal market is the REAL issue here. Which is why transit of goods from UKR is an issue also here.

Also saying "screw us and our own economy" in this context will sound bit weird to a german or italian average joe who Polish politicians (rightfully so) asked to stop using cheap Russian oil - which directly hurt the economy of their countries. Take it as you will, my intention is not to insult anyone here.

Except there is a fallacy in this comparison.
When EU got expanded with Eastern Europe, everybody knew there would be uneven competiton between eastern and western farmer.
To make it more fair, there was transition/suspension/protection clause for 10 years.
Namely Western farmers got full EU subsidies, to be able to compete with Eastern, while Eastern initially get 0 subsidies, then gradually increased across 10 years.
Basically for first 5 years, it was Western farmers who had total edge in this competition.
Now, it's only a few years since both Eastern and Western farmers are treated equally.


I totally wouldn't mind for same or symilar treatment in case of Ukraine, not simply "one year ban and then croak and die".
As I said, we expected EU to help with subsidies, like in above case, but 200 milion (MILION, not billion) is a joke pocket change for hundred billion worth industry.

[mr.WHO]

So different versions of Poland weapons to Ukraine: Version 1 - Poland's already up to giving Ukraine equipment again but just not the newest stuff. Version 2 - It was a misinterpretation of what someone said and everything is the same as before.

Actually, both versions are true

1) We already send like 90% of our surplus/old/reserve stuff. Since Mig-29s a few months ago, there was no major delivery announced.
It was also clarified it only stop of donation of our free stuff.
Weapon/supplies transit from other countries is unnafected and all weapon contracts wich were paid will be done (e.g. maintenace hubs with Germany and USA, contracted weapon production for KRAB, Rosomak and several other polish made systems).

2) I might benefit from native speaker and context/culture.
Whole sentence was said in a such way, it was obvious it's simply an empty complaint with not much behind it.
It's typical polish thing, seem like most of foreighners pick up very quickly that poles like to complain a lot, except that it's kinda out way of small talk and stress venting in one convinient package.

It was just a single sentence throwed out of frustration, that media started to spin like it's some kind of revolution.

[burger1]

Poland and Ukraine reach new grain deal.

US military operations exempt from government shut down. So training, supply, etc... will continue in the event of a government shutdown. Same as other shutdowns from the past I guess where people work but don't get paid?

[mr.WHO]

Poland and Ukraine reach new grain deal.

Nope, there is no info about agreement anywhere here in media.
Last note was that the negotiations have just started.

Might be mistaken with Slovak-Ukraine grain deal that was aparently made yesterday.

Edit:

Now this is a rare treat - tank on tank knife fight:
https://twitter.com/region776/status/17 ... 3369704678

It's almost like medieval jousting

[fiksal]

today I learned that Serbians and Serbia are favoring Kremlin and Russia's war against Ukrainians.


the quote of the day of one Serbian meeting me: "we (Serbians ) are always going to support you (Russians), you are in the right"

no, "we" are not

[mr.WHO]

Ukraine "Storm Shadow'ed" Black Sea Fleet HQ at Sewastopol - possibly killing high ranking admiral Sokolow:
https://twitter.com/officejjsmart/statu ... 2400038204

[chew-ie]

Quite a blow...

[Tamina]

today I learned that Serbians and Serbia are favoring Kremlin and Russia's war against Ukrainians.


the quote of the day of one Serbian meeting me: "we (Serbians ) are always going to support you (Russians), you are in the right"

no, "we" are not

Serbia is famously anti NATO. They are holding a grudge because of the Kosovo war. To no surprise, Russia is on the side of Serbia, and argues that the borders shall be kept as they were internationally agreed upon. Ironically, Russia was and still is waging invasion wars against their neighbouring countries, basically violating their own arguments.

[EGO_Aut]

Leopard with german Bundeswehr crew got destroyed in Ukraine. (link got the info from sputnik)
https://youtu.be/8z7Ls3aSsgQ?si=R3EBn8WbXSOQ5WId

PS: i dont think thats serious, but maybe you have a similar source.

[mr.WHO]

Source: "Trust me bro"

[fiksal]

If NATO military would be active in Ukraine, there may not have been this war. Putin may have turned to conquering Georgia instead.

Serbia is famously anti NATO. They are holding a grudge because of the Kosovo war. To no surprise, Russia is on the side of Serbia, and argues that the borders shall be kept as they were internationally agreed upon. Ironically, Russia was and still is waging invasion wars against their neighbouring countries, basically violating their own arguments.

I followed up on that, apparently the current events energizing some elements in Serbia to take Kosovo.




new developments
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66901227

Ukraine claims Sevastopol strike hit navy commanders

Ukraine says Friday's missile strike on the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea fleet in Crimea was timed to coincide with a meeting of naval officials.

In a short statement, the Ukrainian military claimed the strike had caused deaths and injuries but did not provide more details.

On Friday Moscow said one serviceman was missing after the attack.

The fleet, based in the port city of Sevastopol, is seen as the best of Russia's navy.

A Ukrainian military source told the BBC that Friday's attack was carried out using Storm Shadow missiles, which are supplied by Britain and France.

The Ukrainian military statement on Saturday asserted that it had left "dozens of dead and wounded occupiers, including the top management of the fleet".

Kyiv's intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, claimed that two Russian commanders were badly injured in the missile strike.

The BBC is unable to independently verify many of the battlefield claims made by either side.

So who was in that building. I think this strike is a significant enough to put it down as a historical milestone.

Western weapons taking out top generals on what Russia claims is a Russian territory.

Apparently Russian propaganda is silent. They usually get into a stupor with news like this.