Russia-Ukraine War

[Tamina]

Russia really drains my energy and motivation by just listening to their bs.

[fiksal]

@Tamina, I understand you completely.



This one is taking some deciphering, but I think, depending on how you apply it, one can say, Europe and USA owe Russia territory that they unlawfully hold. And that's now in Russian law.

source
http://publication.pravo.gov.ru/documen ... 2401180021
or
https://www.consultant.ru/cons/cgi/onli ... Urhc4juhbY

ORDER

PRESIDENT OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

In accordance with subparagraph 1 of paragraph 2 of Article 78.5 of the Budget Code of the Russian Federation, designate the federal state unitary enterprise "Enterprise for Property Management Abroad" of the Administration of the President of the Russian Federation as the recipient of a subsidy provided from the federal budget for financial support of costs associated with the search for real estate of the Russian Federation , the former Russian Empire, the former USSR, the proper registration of the rights of the Russian Federation in relation to the existing federal real estate and the found real estate of the Russian Federation, the former Russian Empire, the former USSR and the legal protection of this property.

The president
Russian Federation
V. PUTIN
January 18, 2024
N 21-rp

lets take this apart

1. create a new government entity for "Enterprise for Property Management Abroad"
2. fund it
3. have this entity literally "search" for (real) estate of the Russian Federation, Russian Empire, USSR
4. by law, register/assign what was "found" to the government
5. protect this property by law


just in case, what is "real estate" in Russian law
https://www.consultant.ru/document/cons ... dea2bfcf4/

Immovable things (real estate, real estate) include land plots, subsoil plots and everything that is firmly connected to the land, that is, objects whose movement without disproportionate damage to their purpose is impossible, including buildings, structures, and unfinished construction objects.

ah yes, land of course.


I hope you all saved your old maps. Now that Russia completely controls all of Ukraine, perhaps more than just Ukraine needs to start negotiating peace with Russia about now and negotiate what land to surrender.

[burger1]

Apparently Turkey has signed the forms for Sweden to join? Hungary might approve now.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10251934/tur ... y-holdout/

Seems to be a lot of speculation about the prisoner plane crash. Only 5 bodies delivered to morgue? Lack of bodies on the ground? Plane might have come from Syria (flight radar) and might have been carrying weapons causing the larger explosion? If so are the prisoners executed/still held? Don't think this one is going to be solved soon. Zelensky wants a international inquiry.

[Tamina]

Apparently Turkey has signed the forms for Sweden to join? Hungary might approve now.

https://globalnews.ca/news/10251934/tur ... y-holdout/

Seems to be a lot of speculation about the prisoner plane crash. Only 5 bodies delivered to morgue? Lack of bodies on the ground? Plane might have come from Syria (flight radar) and might have been carrying weapons causing the larger explosion? If so are the prisoners executed/still held? Don't think this one is going to be solved soon. Zelensky wants a international inquiry.

According to the Ukrainian intelligence service, there should have been high ranking officers in the plane who were told not to board the plane right before start.

Only 5 people were found on the crash site so far, which is the exact amount of the crew.

Of course this is all speculative, but if the intelligence service knew that, then it is also believable that Ukraine actually shot down the plane. However, then Russia still lied about the prisoners..

[fiksal]

and Russian reaction - now they don't want to do prison exchanges at all. So forget about those Russian POWs, who needs them. It's like Russia thinks it's doing everyone a favor by not being barbaric all the time.

The darker moment maybe that Russia doesn't need those Ukrainian POWs alive anymore.

[fiksal]

onto lighter news of other dysfunction

to reap what you sow
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2024/01 ... trump.html

It appears Trump and pro Trump Republicans neither want to send aid to Ukraine nor want to strengthen the borders.

That by my count creates a third split, from those that think border is an important issue, and those that also think Ukraine is an important issue.

The Republican speaker appears to be in that third camp, the Trump treason camp.

It is simply a rhetorical conceit to avoid admitting that anti-Ukraine Republicans either don’t care about or actively support Russia’s goal of crushing Ukraine, using a facile rhetorical conceit that both issues can be described with the word “border” to create a false choice.

Nonetheless, pro-Ukraine Republicans, led by Mitch McConnell, decided to take these “arguments” at face value. Their clever-sounding plan was to hold up aid to Ukraine — aid they themselves support — unless Democrats agreed to secure the border.

The pro-Ukraine Republicans understood that the conceit that helping Ukraine came at the cost of American border security was nonsensical. But they decided to indulge it anyway, on the calculation that only securing the border would pacify anti-Ukraine Republicans. “Let’s be clear: This is a false choice. America is a superpower,” wrote Republican Russia hawk Marc Thiessen last fall, “We can secure our borders and also lead on the world stage. But Biden’s failure to do the former is feeding the forces of both nativism and isolationism on the right — giving them ammunition to argue against continued U.S. leadership in support of Ukraine.”
...

What was supposed to be the magic of the deal is that this border agreement would not be a traditional immigration compromise, in which Republicans get more enforcement in return for Democrats getting humane treatment for Dreamers or other immigrant groups. It would be a one-way deal, ratcheting up border security. Immigrant-rights groups would complain, but Democrats would have to go along in order to get Ukraine aid.

And the Democrats did go along, despite complaints from immigration activists, resulting in a moderately conservative border security deal that Democrats could just barely swallow. Instead, opposition came from conservatives.

It wasn’t just that the conservatives didn’t think the border security was good enough to justify passing Ukraine aid. They decided they didn’t want to pass a border-security deal at all.

The reason, of course, is that Trump is running on border chaos as one of his biggest campaign issues. If President Biden signs a bipartisan bill to restrict asylum claims, then Trump won’t have this issue. Trump has been urging Republicans in Congress to tank the bill so he can keep the issue alive.

A Senate Republican aid tells Politico’s Playbook, “It’s very clear that a large group of Republicans in the Senate and the House no longer want to do border security … Trump wouldn’t have his issue to run on. That’s what’s going on here: They don’t want to give up that issue.”

McConnell reacted to this adverse development by explaining to his caucus at a Wednesday-night meeting that the border deal he negotiated was actually good for conservatives. It had provisions Democrats would never accept without the lever of Ukraine aid. He even quoted Donald Trump saying in the past that Democrats would never vote for border enforcement.

See! It was a great deal for conservatives who are upset about border security! Even Trump’s own words proved it!

The wee flaw in this calculation, however, is that Trump doesn’t actually care about border security. Alleviating the border problem is much worse for Trump than doing nothing about it. Border security for Ukraine aid turned out to attach one thing Trump fans hated to another thing Trump fans hated.

[Falcrack]

The wee flaw in this calculation, however, is that Trump doesn’t actually care about border security. Alleviating the border problem is much worse for Trump than doing nothing about it. Border security for Ukraine aid turned out to attach one thing Trump fans hated to another thing Trump fans hated.

It's been painfully obvious for quite some time now that Donald Trump does not care about anyone or anything, unless it serves to benefit himself. He does not care about the constitution, about freedom, about the lives of people at home or abroad. Just about him. Any policy position he adopts, he does so purely out of naked self interest, not whether he truly believes it. In this regard, Trump and Putin are quite alike.

With so many people in my country who support a man like this, I truly feel that the end of our democracy is upon us, maybe just a few short years, unless we drastically change course.

[fiksal]

and what's worse there are people in government and citizens who support Trump, and subjects that support Putin.

Trump like other fascist sympathizers is indeed very similar to successful fascist like Putin. Being failure at fascism is the only positive trait that Trump has, otherwise they would not differ much if you were to swap their places

[mr.WHO]

Just show Trump recent Putin/Russia claims to Alaska - he will change the tune 180 and start pouring billions and stuff into Ukraine immedately.

Bar a few really bad cases of useful idots, left-right and center, this should be very simple message to understand.

[fiksal]

Just show Trump recent Putin/Russia claims to Alaska - he will change the tune 180 and start pouring billions and stuff into Ukraine immedately.

Bar a few really bad cases of useful idots, left-right and center, this should be very simple message to understand.

Putin is also not always stupid. He will know to call for Alaskan independence and freedom of ethic Russians on local TV only (and there are btw Russians who still live in Alaska dating back from the time before the sale, true story) and yet, say none of that to Trump's face publicly.

And Trump can't read. Chances that he will read the above Russian law are pretty slim.

In private who knows, they could discuss giving Alaska for Greenland or some other fantasy. I think Putin hoped Trump would be a bigger help than his dysfunctional self. All the things to look forward to if Putin survives 2024 and Trump wins

[Observe]

All the things to look forward to if Putin survives 2024 and Trump wins

Trump's approach is that the consensus on any subject is wrong. If the world consensus is opposed to Putin, then Trump automatically assumes that Putin is the good guy. If the consensus is that North Korea should be isolated, Trump automatically wants to hug their leader, etc. Trump's supporters love him for his middle-finger approach to everything that sane people (such as they are) think and do. As such, it could be said that Trump is more of a danger to the civilized world (such as it is), than any expansionist goals that Putin may have. Trump would love to see Zelensky lose, no matter if Ukraine is lost in the process.

[mr.WHO]

Hmm, Ukraine got canister rounds for Leopard 1A5:
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7441463786


However, it's kinda strange - going into the range to use them while being in Leo 1 is already near suicide.

[burger1]

It looks like Biden has found a way to arm Ukraine by arming other countries. Republicans still won't pass Ukraine aid even though their border deal got agreed to. They might not want to send any aid to Ukraine?

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/bi ... r-BB1hxMXA

North Korea apparently has no problems meeting Russian weapon demands.

Ukraine blew up more planes. Ukraine got some ground launched glide bombs, etc... No big bombs.

The large oil refinery hit a while ago is apparently non functional. Another refinery was blown up today.

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodi ... 024-01-29/

[chew-ie]

EU finally managed to put Hungary in their place. 50 billion package for Ukraine is agreed on.

[Warenwolf]

EU finally managed to put Hungary in their place. 50 billion package for Ukraine is agreed on.

Imho, regarding Orban and his shenanigans, nothing has changed. He will do the same dance when the next crossroad comes.

For Ukraine 50 billion euro are welcome injection.

[mr.WHO]

This should at least keep Ukraine afloat no matter if US sort itself out or not.

Now, if only we would finally get those 300 bil frozen assets unlocked for Ukraine.

[chew-ie]

EU finally managed to put Hungary in their place. 50 billion package for Ukraine is agreed on.

Imho, regarding Orban and his shenanigans, nothing has changed. He will do the same dance when the next crossroad comes.

Not if EU keeps playing the economy card - which they did in order to close this deal. And Hungary should get a lot of these lessons in the future, as they were a tad to comfortable with the "give money or else" game. It's a good thing the EU finally reversed that.

[mr.WHO]

Now we just need Sweden to b*tch slap Orban as well and get NATO sign in.

[Observe]

This should at least keep Ukraine afloat no matter if US sort itself out or not.

I wonder how much of that 50 billion, will need to go to the cost of drafting another 500,000 or so troops, along with everything it takes to train and outfit them? Also, as the early national enthusiasm is giving way to loss of morale, I wonder how many more Ukrainians citizens will find a way out of the country, rather than be mobilized into a battlefield quagmire that looks like it could go on for years to come? Tough situation for sure.

[fiksal]

New law in Russia. If you recall for "discrediting" Russian Army one generally gets 4 years of prison. Now add to that loss of possessions / real estate.

Let's see how that contributes to the stability of the regime.

In other news,
Some Russian commentators are saying that Russia is preparing to shutting off Internet at home. Recent outage is a test run of sorts, and these plans were mentioned by the government for a number of years, as I vaguely recall.

Speaking of Peace proposals. Russian propaganda channel had given a clear reply - no peace is possible if Ukraine as a state exists. (I can find a source if you like)

Let's keep that in bold