Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Ukrainian flying drone carriers:
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1860385324565954621

[Warenwolf]

Ukrainian flying drone carriers:
https://x.com/DefenceU/status/1860385324565954621

Heh, Zveno project and the idea of parasitic fighters never died. Not saying they were inspired by it (but I am sure they know its history) just an observation on how similar problems produce similar results.

[notaterran]

Putin has been talking about red lines for years, nuclear threats from Russia carry the same weight as North Korea's.

[Chips]

Well, once you take action over a "red line" in the sense of the biblical outcome, there's no more lines to cross. He knows the new permission is not actually going to make much difference on the ground. So why screw their current progress by potentially getting NATO involved (especially if attacking NATO itself). Just do something token-worthy instead, to show the potential fear stuff.

Bottom line is that Russia have got a war economy, and NATO have not. As long as they don't run out of men, Russia will "win" eventually on that basis alone. Win in quotes because it may not be a total victory, but a negotiated peace settlement. They know NATO isn't going to become involved unless they do something ridiculous.

So why would Putin screw all that up by trying to start a fight with NATO that he obviously cannot win and would likely roll back all the gains they've had, by going biblical over a meaningless "red line".

NATO don't go too hard as they likewise know that tiny increments in capability don't bring out the last ditch response from Russia.

[EGO_Aut]

Well, the threat of red lines being crossed already existed during NATO's eastern expansion. Ultimately, RU invaded the UKR.
In a war game I would next launch a few NEMP attacks on the UKR as the ultimate warning. I don't think NATO would react then, but the hot wire would glow again.

[notaterran]

Russia has been making empty threats against NATO for years, there's nothing to indicate that this will change. Russia invaded Ukraine thinking it would be easy, they overestimated their military might. It looks like history will repeat itself (see Afghanistan).

[mr.WHO]

Aparently THAAD and newer versions of Patriots would be able to intercept that ICBM (or rather IRBM since it's not having range to cross continents).

Both Poland and Romania have US Missile defense bases (AEGIS ashore), plus US Patriot batteries relocated to both countries and additionally, since last year Poland aquired latest version of Patriots as well.
I'm not sure about Finland, but I assume they have or working on their missile defense as well. NATO airspace is secured.

In other words - Russia can do jack sh*t, unless it wants full scale WW3.

Russia was throwing nuclear threads for over 30 years against Central/Eastern Europe - the difference is that we actually took them seriously and started preparing integrated missile defense systems.
We are now basically like South Korea, where we have to live with nut rocket man next door.

Russia fear tactics is running on fumes, since along US, both UK and France authorized Ukraine to use their long range missiles - only Germany is dragging their feets with Taurus missiles.

[notaterran]

Calling Putin's nuclear bluff was the right move by NATO.

[Vertigo 7]

Absolutely. It's cowardice to the extreme to suggest capitulation every time someone threatens to use nukes. You do that one time, you give them permission to do whatever the hell they want because you've shown them just how much of a giant pussy you are.

[burger1]

Either social media rules elections or there's some more election fraud going on in Romania. Doesn't seem like any elections can be made any more without a better systems and a lot of overwatch.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/far-candidat ... 54398.html

A far-right, pro-Russia candidate has taken a surprise lead in the first round of Romania's presidential election, with preliminary results putting his pro-Europe rival in close second.

With 96% of votes counted, ultranationalist Calin Georgescu was on 22%, and Marcel Ciolacu, the prime minister, had 20%, according to the Central Electoral Bureau.

The strong showing of Georgescu, who has no party of his own, and campaigned largely on the social media platform TikTok, came as the biggest surprise of the election.

He is now on track to join Ciolacu in a final run-off for the presidency on 8 December.

That would pose a dilemma for the millions of Romanians who voted for other candidates.

One option would be to rally round populist Social Democrat Ciolacu, an establishment figure who would continue Romania’s pro-western path.

Backing Georgescu, who has promised to Romania’s sovereignty, is the alternative.

Georgescu, who belongs to no party, has also sworn to end what he calls subservience to the European Union and Nato, especially on support for Ukraine. He has condemned the Nato ballistic missile defence shield in Deveselu, Romania.

[chew-ie]

One really has to wonder why so many people gladly trade their freedom for the next dark age by voting facists, autocrats, imperialists ... but then again we have it for a long time. Hungary gets money from the EU but votes politicians who work against the EU.

I guess what's missing is a big fat "NO" from the systems against this constant abuse of generosity. People seem not to be able to NOT abuse it.

[EGO_Aut]

One really has to wonder why so many people gladly trade their freedom for the next dark age by voting facists, autocrats, imperialists ... but then again we have it for a long time. Hungary gets money from the EU but votes politicians who work against the EU.

I guess what's missing is a big fat "NO" from the systems against this constant abuse of generosity. People seem not to be able to NOT abuse it.

Unfortunately, you don't understand that Hungarians are very happy with their president. I can't understand it either, he really cares about "the family", but the loan for the common ppl is miserable. He doesn't allow any Muslims into the country, but they prefer to flee to the land of milk and honey anyway.

[mr.WHO]

ATACMS target Russian airfield - seems like fireworks are more impresive than that Rusian MIRV:
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1861063850210037880

Edit:
Same explosions, from different perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NqVbp6UDwo

[Falcrack]

ATACMS target Russian airfield - seems like fireworks are more impresive than that Rusian MIRV:
https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1861063850210037880

Edit:
Same explosions, from different perspective:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2NqVbp6UDwo

The first video, he's probably seeing his life flash before his eyes as the cluster explosions come towards him!

[Observe]

Trump selects retired Gen. Keith Kellogg as special envoy to Russia, Ukraine.

"Kellogg's plan for ending the war, which began when Russia invaded Ukrainian sovereign territory, involves freezing the battle lines at their prevailing locations and forcing both Kyiv and Moscow to the negotiating table."

I endorse this approach. Two more months before Biden (or whoever is running the White House) is booted out. Hopefully, things haven't gotten irretrievably worse by then.

[fiksal]

I wonder, he and what army will ask Russia to admit defeat in not accomplishing any objectives

seems like a plan of inexperienced people who never read Russian news

if Republicans are right, then Russia has nothing to lose in waiting a little longer and defeating all of Ukraine. And Russians do watch US news, they know this too.

no teeth, no plan, no brains

or they are pro Putin puppets, which is equally likely


edit: oh I didn't read the fine print. This isn't to stop a war after all.
Thanks for the link, good stuff

In the paper, the two authors seemed to acknowledge that an end to the war was unlikely while Russian President Vladimir Putin was still leading his country.

[Observe]

I wonder, he and what army will ask Russia to admit defeat in not accomplishing any objectives

Simple: Both sides stop fighting. If Ukraine persists, we stop supplying them with anything. If Russia persists, we go whole-hog into supplying Ukraine with everything and anything they request - all the way to world war. Russia simply cannot be permitted to continue.

Likely: Russia keeps what they have stolen, or that area becomes some kind of neutral ground with special governance to be determined. That is a fait accompli. No getting it back in the short-term. Ukraine forgets about joining NATO for twenty years or so.

[fiksal]

I wonder, he and what army will ask Russia to admit defeat in not accomplishing any objectives

Simple: Both sides stop fighting. If Ukraine persists, we stop supplying them with anything. If Russia persists, we go whole-hog into supplying Ukraine with everything and anything they request - all the way to world war. Russia simply cannot be permitted to continue.

That's what I mean, this is no plan because US already supplying Ukraine with weapons. Biden already did it. So if the plan will really be same as Biden's, ok, let's keep supplying.

If the plan is only to bluff, US will lose, Russia is much better at bluffing.

Likely: Russia keeps what they have stolen, or that area becomes some kind of neutral ground with special governance to be determined. That is a fait accompli. No getting it back in the short-term. Ukraine forgets about joining NATO for twenty years or so.

If Ukraine doesn't join NATO then this war is not gonna stop at all.

For the same reasons, Russia has nothing to lose, no disadvantage. The war will only pause while Russia is resupplying. Then it only has to count on the short attention span of the US leader, which is what I predict in Trump's presidency. Whatever his steps will be, he will forget about them and what was promised.

The real plan for peace must include guaranteed security for Ukraine and a real plan for post war Russia. What country does US want to see in Russia, a North Korea look alike held up and drained by China and India? One that will be looking for the next war after feeling lucky with Ukraine war.

Or something else?

However, I think US is going to be out of the peace making picture, this is what I predict. It's up to Europe now, and it's time to talk troops in the areas under Ukraine control. This is step one in security guarantee.

Also, also.

If we freeze borders, that means Ukraine keeps Kursk region. That'd be fun.

Do you want to hear the last peace treaty proposal by Russia? The one from two years ago, it's the same was just repeated like last month.

[Falcrack]

I wonder, he and what army will ask Russia to admit defeat in not accomplishing any objectives

Simple: Both sides stop fighting. If Ukraine persists, we stop supplying them with anything. If Russia persists, we go whole-hog into supplying Ukraine with everything and anything they request - all the way to world war. Russia simply cannot be permitted to continue.

Likely: Russia keeps what they have stolen, or that area becomes some kind of neutral ground with special governance to be determined. That is a fait accompli. No getting it back in the short-term. Ukraine forgets about joining NATO for twenty years or so.

Observe, to me you sound exactly like the type of folk prior to WWII who were advocating for "peace" with Nazi Germany. Your supposed advocacy for peace is the thing that will lead to larger scale war, because it rewards the aggressor and reinforces their conviction that we will not stand up to them, that they are free to bully smaller nations without fear of serious consequences.

[EGO_Aut]

But the actions of the USA and its allies have not led to major wars, although there was a lot of lying, there were never any real consequences. Btw Türkiye is still in Syria and Irak, Israel in Gaza an W.Jordan. Why should things be different under BRICS?

Wouldn't it be better to really help the UKR than just try to win the war online and drive out the RU, I heard Zelensky is looking for capable people after the oligarchs fled to the milk and honey countrys.