Russia-Ukraine War

[Observe]

To be honest, right now, I think there is more of a chance that NATO will be fighting inside Ukraine by this time next year than there is a chance of an end to the conflict.

Doesn't NATO deployment require consensus among members? I don't see that happening.

Question: Would it be possible for individual NATO members to join the fray on their own accord outside the NATO umbrella? Or would that still be construed as an attack by all of NATO on Russia?

[mr.WHO]

Question: Would it be possible for individual NATO members to join the fray on their own accord outside the NATO umbrella? Or would that still be construed as an attack by all of NATO on Russia?

Actually, this is more likely than official NATO missions, some member will come in on their own (e.g France, UK then some other will join after) and it will have nothing to do with NATO as whole.
When I drawed potential next steps in my previous post, I've been thinking about this instead of official NATO mission (as NATO action would be blocked by Hungary, Slovakia and probably Germany).

[Observe]

4 - NATO move in (frontline) boots on the ground, but only on calm areas (Belarus, Transnistria, Dnieper River), so that Ukraine can move all it's forces to primary frontlines (Kursk, Kharkiyv, Donetsk, Zaporozia)

I don't know what the current status of the other regions is, but I think Kursk is likely to fall soon and that it will be seen as a strategic blunder. The idea with Kursk was to draw enemy troops from attacking Ukraine territory.

Trouble is, Russia has over 1 million active-duty soldiers, compared to roughly 250 thousand for Ukraine. So, four times more Russian troops. Also, for various reasons, Ukraine's allies are not able to match Russian weapons production.

Ukraine’s exhausted troops in Russia told to cling on and wait for Trump.

Ukraine has already lost around 40% of the territory it seized in Kursk in August.

It would be wise for Ukraine to pull up stakes and retreat from Kursk before the last man standing falls. Staying in Kursk with the hope of leverage in negotiations is looking more like a deadly fantasy than a political advantage.

[mr.WHO]

Trouble is, Russia has over 1 million active-duty soldiers, compared to roughly 250 thousand for Ukraine. So, four times more Russian troops. Also, for various reasons, Ukraine's allies are not able to match Russian weapons production.

Your numbers are way off it's more like 1.3 mil for Russia and 900k for Ukraine.

Here is a catch - Russia could mobilize 2,3 even 4 millions more active soldiers on paper...but there is a huge difference, between having soldiers mobilizes and having soldiers doing anything useful (moving and shooting in one direction without running out of ammo, fuel and food in 3 days).

Face the reality, if Russia cannot effectively mobilize to push Ukraine from Kurs for so long, then they are at their breaking limit as well.
If Russia would have any semblance of competent miltiary, logistic and strategic reserves, they would kicked Ukraine from Kurs in two weeks, a month max - they didn't, this is that simple (they even had to call North Korea for help FFS).

[EGO_Aut]

How long does it take to shool civilians (or miliz) to soldiers
3 weeks, 3 month, 3 years?

The bigger problem is the production of artillery shells.
While RU has no supply problems, the west still does not wake up with the production. I heard something that UKR shoots in one month the year production of US Brass is still in short supply....

[mr.WHO]

How long does it take to shool civilians (or miliz) to soldiers
3 weeks, 3 month, 3 years?

1 year at least to not be a cannon fodder, 3 years minimum to be profesional.

There is absolutely no way to learn how to survive in battlefield in just 3 months, especially, if you're pure civilian who never had anything to do with military.

The bigger problem is the production of artillery shells.
While RU has no supply problems, the west still does not wake up with the production. I heard something that UKR shoots in one month the year production of US Brass is still in short supply....

US is the only country that managed to visibly expand artillery shell production since the war started.
Some of EU countries started expanding their production as well, but it will still take 2-3 years to have sharp rise in production numbers.


Notice that Russia can say they produce bazzilion shells on paper, but in reality they will be forced to sacrifice ammunition quality - lower quality ammunition will wear off artillery barrels - this is true bottleneck for Russia (very limited production, artillery units were among fastes dissapearing in those army depot satelite images).
Russia went through insane barrel attrition in first two year due to their overuse of artillery - that's why in 2024 Russia has only 2:1 advantage in artillery fire comparing to 8:1 at the war start.

This is why western doctrine prefere to fire and hit the target with 1 precision shell than 20 dummy ones.
If you account all the hidden additional costs of +19 shells, you'll find out most of the time, it's cheaper to have 1 precision shell.


Russia is great at selling the imaginary story of raw numbers, but huge numbers require equally huge logistics and industry - Russian logistics has been proven crap through entire war and Russian economy is the size of Netherland or Italy.
If Russia would be capable of fielding greater force, it would do so long ago.

[chew-ie]

And one tiny detail: if those huge numbers would mean anything, they'd occupy a lot more of Ukraines soil. The ratio of resources spent and progress made is laughable - especially for such a "mighty" army russia tried to sell theirs for decades.

[notaterran]

I don't know what the current status of the other regions is, but I think Kursk is likely to fall soon and that it will be seen as a strategic blunder. The idea with Kursk was to draw enemy troops from attacking Ukraine territory.

Let's say Russia retakes Kursk, what were the Russian losses retaking it? A war of attrition is not decided by military might; the U.S. was more powerful than Vietnam, the Soviet Union was more powerful than Afghanistan.

What really worries me is what happens when Trump doesn't support Ukraine even if the Ukrainians want to continue defending their country and making Russia pay. What happens then?

[fiksal]

I don't know what the current status of the other regions is, but I think Kursk is likely to fall soon and that it will be seen as a strategic blunder. The idea with Kursk was to draw enemy troops from attacking Ukraine territory.

Ah what?

How do you look at the action that showed that Russian territory can be literally attacked, by Ukraine or by other foreign weapons, and not trigger the nuclear war, because as always, it was a Russian bluff, - and conclude - a blunder?

Kursk is still, not under Russian control, and doing some nice political damage. On the social side, Russians finally got to feel what the war is like, for all those who fled and found out that the government isn't interested in helping them. They keep wondering, why can't they return

[mr.WHO]

What really worries me is what happens when Trump doesn't support Ukraine even if the Ukrainians want to continue defending their country and making Russia pay. What happens then?

Then Ukraine will fight on it's own - they are going heavily into drone and missile production in 2025:
https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/18 ... 0341520584

[mr.WHO]

I don't want to be too optimistic too soon, but Russian power projection is waning.

Last years we saw Russia abandonning Armenia.
Now we see them doing the same in Syria.
Abhasia, Russian occupied region of Georgia is now in conflict with pro-russian rulers.
Russian mercenaries in African Sahel are grinder and hunted.

Unless Russia will get a cease-fire in 2025 we'll see more of pro-Russian regimes falling or changing allegiance.
I think the blood is in the water and sharks will start to gather for Russia.


I think that from Ukraine and Western side, having cease-fire in early 2025 will be a mistake - long term it would be much better to grind Russian military and economy for 1 or 2 years.

[chew-ie]

It's all up to Ukraine I'd say. If they as a people decide they need a break, cease fire will come. But TBH - I don't see that coming. Even then, I suspect there will be a lot going on. Heck - even if Ukraine is somehow forced to accept the current landgrab I personally mark that as the transition to a nasty partisan conflict.

[burger1]

More missile factories etc.... to start production in North Korea and Iran. NATO still hasn't built stuff in 3 years of war. Any thing built in Ukraine will likely get bombed so need production outside the country.

US trying to give Ukraine 50b in Russian assets. Quite a bit of the aid announced for Ukraine still hasn't been delivered. NATO seems very reluctant to up production letting Ukraine win. Still going for the slow bleed waiting for Putin to die, regime change, etc... Same as day one.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/blinken-conf ... 17144.html

[clakclak]

Look, everyone here knows that I very much dislike Donald Trump, but I think for once he has found words that I can actually agree with and I will give him credit for it. The devil is always in the detail and here the detail is what a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia might look like, but stating clearly that the ball is in Putin's corner is good and the correct thing to do here. What Trump said:

Assad is gone. He has fled his country. His protector, Russia, Russia, Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, was not interested in protecting him any longer. There was no reason for Russia to be there in the first place. They lost all interest in Syria because of Ukraine, where close to 600,000 Russian soldiers lay wounded or dead, in a war that should never have started, and could go on forever.

Russia and Iran are in a weakened state right now, one because of Ukraine and a bad economy, the other because of Israel and its fighting success. Likewise, Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness. They have ridiculously lost 400,000 soldiers, and many more civilians. There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin.

Too many lives are being so needlessly wasted, too many families destroyed, and if it keeps going, it can turn into something much bigger, and far worse. I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help. The World is waiting!

[fiksal]

I believe when he puts some of those random statements in action first.

The track record of his minions is beyond poor, borderline treasonous. They worked to weaken support for Ukraine and have been Russia enablers. They have allied with Russia in several occasions when Russia had attacked US networks.

So I will wait to see

[Vertigo 7]

Indeed and wtf is this?

I know Vladimir well. This is his time to act. China can help.

He almost sounded human for a second there and then blew it.

[fiksal]

I stopped analyzing Trump's thought expulsion awhile back...

Though I would think it's Putin that knows Trump well

[Observe]

Trump's push for an immediate ceasefire is good in my book. His call for China to help makes sense too. They have already expressed willingness to play a role. Let's hope this quickly leads to halting the bloodshed. Imaginary lines across the land can be sorted out at the table. It would be nice if this could be done before Biden leaves office.

[fiksal]

Let's see a more interesting proposition first. What we saw so far in my opinion, missing any kind of incentive for Russia to stop.

Recall that losing the war can spell end of Putin. And Putin thinks he is holding all the cards vs what US is holding, as I illustrated.

I am sure I wouldn't if I were Putin

[mr.WHO]

First Russian Tank depot to run out of tanks:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7TKVv50DhqM


Edit:

Aparently it's not the first one.

With tanks remaining:
769th
349th
2456th / 103rd
1311th
2544th
111th
904th
22nd
6018th
943rd



No more tanks remaining:
1295th (the one on the video)
239th
7035th
246th
240th
342nd
835th
7033rd
Kremnjowo
187th
295th
330th
230th
245th