Russia-Ukraine War

[Falcrack]

Any ceasefire would be temporary. Russia isn't even close to achieving their war aims with the current line of conflict, which counts as an enormous loss for them considering all they took control of are a few small cities. Not Kyiv, not Khakiv, not Sumy, not Chernuhiv, not Kherson, not Zaporizhia, not Dnipro, not Mykolaiv, not Odesa. They've paid too much in blood for the relatively minor gains they have made to be satisfied with a cease fire. Not to mention Ukraine still holds parts of Kursk.

If there is a cease fire, I hope Ukraine's allies move in troops as tripwire forces to make it clear that next time Russia attacks, they won't just be dealing with Ukrainian forces.

[EGO_Aut]

Any ceasefire would be temporary. Russia isn't .........

I don't understand at all how something like this could work from one side without Russia at the table? Under what conditions? Will Russia either simply reject it or add ten more claims?

Edit: I still hope that this conflict ends asap.

[fiksal]

Russian strategy appears simple really

Continuously throw soldiers and wait it out until
- EU accepts defeat
- US gives up or helps to defeat Ukraine

The objectives are still indeed the same, and were briefly mentioned at that US Russia talk, that not only they didn't change, US "had seen" Russian point of view. Thus telling Russia that it's on the right track. The last bit apparently is driven home by the propaganda / official Kremlin news tv.

US actually didn't ask anything from Russia at that meeting.

[Tamina]

Not sure where they got their video clips from, would love to know if that is genuine:
https://youtube.com/shorts/ghbP3QXtZKk
[Daily Show Short about Russia thinking about Trump]

[mr.WHO]

Seem like Ukraine is withdrawing from Kursk - might be some kind of silent agreement for the cease fire-talks (e.g. to show Ukraine good will and bait Russia to reject cease fire, thinking they are winning now).

[Chips]

From what I heard, they were in danger of being encircled in Kursk... the North Korean's had pushed in - but I've not kept up to date with things at all.


However, over time, i am starting to see what America is thinking about. Cast back to world war 2, when it broke out for the US, with Pearl Harbour. Churchill tried damned hard to convince the US to focus on Europe first, Asia second. The fear being the help for UK would be suspended while the US fought in the pacific.

Now, the enemies are China (for the US, not so much Russia as they're too weak to confront America directly). But America has responsibilities to keep both Europe secure, and then the far east (US interests).

The problem is the US is split. If China, which is always growing, confronts the US - it can't fight China while trying to maintain European security. Furthermore, there's no *real* strength to help out either. Only France and UK can do force projection (and I think the UK is scrapping its amphibious assault capabilities).

Trump is doing a very abrupt and harsh jolt to the European norm of "America will save us" - the simple truth is Europe can't protect itself adequately. We do not have the capability for satellite intel, for logistics (I remember the UK had to do logistics for France in Mali about a decade ago was it?) - or even ammo production / stores.

Trump's a dick. We know that. How he's blackmailing Europe with Ukraine abandonment threats is wholly unfair on Ukraine. But not really unfair on Europe. We really have been freeloading on the "USA will save us", essentially if we can't defend ourselves adequately, why should someone else.

The real issue is if Trump *really* doesn't care at all. I remain confident that while I fear Ukraine will get a crap deal, the US isn't really abandoning Europe. But Europe has to be able to defend itself.

Hell, the UK doesn't really have any missile intercept capability. Mental. The outcome is a collective crap the bed - and suddenly everyone's taking this seriously and investing. That's a good thing, under the, erm, wrong/appalling circumstances? But it is what it's taken to make it happen. We (eastern block excepted) haven't done so in the last 3 years, only *now*.



Hopefully Trump is going to show his self aggrandising strengths of negotiations to actually turn this into a fair outcome for Ukraine. But I'm damned sure US wants this over simply so they can build up their stocks and be ready for China without an arm tied behind it's back keeping Europe safe (forces divided); it can't rumble on with US supplying Ukraine if China thinks a war is in the offing over Taiwan in 2027.


Should point out, I've ZERO military/economic/diplomacy knowledge. The strong arming of Ukraine into what's coming is terrible. But the "treatment" of Europe is, frankly, overdue (in be able to defend yourselves... instead of cheaping out and hoping someone else does). After all, if you cba to defend yourself, why should anyone else. Poland and entire Eastern Block excepted as they've realised in the last 4 years and changed).

[Observe]

Pretty astute analysis given all the unknowns.

[mr.WHO]

The real issue is if Trump *really* doesn't care at all. I remain confident that while I fear Ukraine will get a crap deal, the US isn't really abandoning Europe. But Europe has to be able to defend itself.

In some kind of accidental 4D move from Trump, Europe fixing it's military and more importantly miltiary industry, would benefit US greatly in US vs China conflict.

Despite neutrality, I wouldn't be suprised with EU providing additional prodution capabilities and miltiary equipment for US.

Similar is with Poland and South Korea - if US-China sh*t hit the fan, so will North Korea be on the move - in that scenario Poland would be safe backyard for South Korea equipment and compactibile production assets.

Last but not least, in case of US vs China war, Ukraine would be much better asset than Russia (Buhankas and assault donkeys would probably fare poorly against China, while T-14 Armatas and SU-57 are nowhere to be seen).

[Tamina]

Yeah, Europe fixing its military is literally what he wanted in his first presidency. Europe is literally doing what he wants and where every other US president failed.

However China is also putting much more effort in its military as a reaction. The spiral turns faster..

[mr.WHO]

Yeah, Europe fixing its military is literally what he wanted in his first presidency. Europe is literally doing what he wants and where every other US president failed.

I just hope he won't overplay his a**hole card, coz well, he can cross the line too much and become counterproductive at some point.

[EGO_Aut]

Are you dreaming? Russia is no match for NATO, even without the US. They won't be able to defeat Ukraine, and Ukraine hasn't exactly received the most modern weapons and tanks.

What the EU needs are certainly not tanks or F35s, but primarily modern reconnaissance satellites, improved EUTELSAT and a few ICBMs. And these not in the hands of one nation, but for an EU army.

[Chips]

Are you dreaming? Russia is no match for NATO, even without the US.

You are entirely right. That's obviously why Poland has jumped it's defence spending to 5%, Germany announced $100 billion immediate investment in it's armed forces along with increased GDP spending, UK announced moving from 2.0% to 2.3% with view to 2.5%, why Eastern European countries have bounced their spending to 4% on average.

They did that, and announced a near 1 trillion dollar investment EU wide, for absolutely *no* reason at all because there's no credible threat to any member state from Russia in the near future.

We're all dreaming.

On this I *may* just edge slightly with the observed behaviours and what commentators are saying. USA has made statements and Europe shat the bed. In a dream.

Ukraine entirely changed to bending over as soon as the US withdrew all support; the EU couldn't step up/step in. That alone says plenty...

[chew-ie]

This isn't only about the money - without the US certain capabilities are not available or at least not to that extend. Everybody played their role - like it always is in alliances. It takes both time and money to substitute for the US contribution in NATO. But it isn't impossible. And I personally say it's about time. Both US military and US companies have too many influence in both europe and EU. I'd like to see that changed in the long run. No one really needs those old structures - which includes Google, Apple, Tesla, Amazon ... The sooner we get rid of them, the better [for mankind].

[Observe]

Seem like Ukraine is withdrawing from Kursk - might be some kind of silent agreement for the cease fire-talks (e.g. to show Ukraine good will and bait Russia to reject cease fire, thinking they are winning now).

I think Ukraine is withdrawing, because they are being clobbered. I always thought that the Kursk incursion was a bad idea. Now, it remains an obstacle to cease-fire. Once Ukraine is defeated in Kursk, which won't take long at the present rate, there should be little reason for Russia to hold up on a cease-fire.

[fiksal]

Russia literally throwing soldiers to their death trying to retake that and rest of the Ukraine.

Seems like a win, no?

[Chips]

I think Ukraine is withdrawing, because they are being clobbered. I always thought that the Kursk incursion was a bad idea. Now, it remains an obstacle to cease-fire. Once Ukraine is defeated in Kursk, which won't take long at the present rate, there should be little reason for Russia to hold up on a cease-fire.

When you say little reason to hold up the ceasefire - do you mean "as long as he gets what he wants" or do you mean "until the US sides with Ukraine and supplies them with far more force".

Easy question -- why would Kursk "hold up the ceasefire" exactly? Do you think if they get 100% of Kursk back and the ceasefire put forward included the Russian withdrawal and payment of a trillion dollars of restorative costs to the country, that they'd go "yep, it was only Kursk holding us back all this time..."

If Ukraine hadn't pushed into Kursk, are you saying Russia would be at the table right now, signing on a dotted line? Or better yet, have already signed?

Or are you saying that getting Ukraine out of Kursk puts Russia in an even stronger position to "negotiate" from. At which point, seeing as Russia is only gaining ground... how on earth does that not translate into "...and we'll be in an even stronger position next month!" mentality; which lather, rinse, repeat for a year.

What, exactly, is Russia's incentive to negotiate peace if every day it continues they're in a better "negotiating" position? Other than it obviously being all Ukraine's fault, they invaded Kursk. Obviously.

[burger1]

Russia moved around it's forces and concentrated them more in kursk. Supply lines were also under fire after russia advanced in a small pocket. Ukraine might have over expanded too fast recently also? Attacking incurs more losses than defending. And also US being flakey as usual. Russia's losing ground in the other front now. Where russia will concentrate it's forces now = ?

[burger1]

Best guess is that Ukrainian ceasefire isn't happening due to russias nutty conditions attached to it. Should be interesting to see if Ukraine gets it's extra weapons due to russia refusing the deal indirectly. Zelensky getting blamed seems more likely then weapons/support to Ukraine being reduced/stopped until Ukraine basically surrenders. Until russias beaten into retreating no point in negotiating.

[Observe]

Putin will phone Trump. Trump will order Zelenskyy to get out of Kursk. Trump will credit Putin for saving lives. Cease-fire negotiations will continue.

[mr.WHO]

Best guess is that Ukrainian ceasefire isn't happening due to russias nutty conditions attached to it. Should be interesting to see if Ukraine gets it's extra weapons due to russia refusing the deal indirectly. Zelensky getting blamed seems more likely then weapons/support to Ukraine being reduced/stopped until Ukraine basically surrenders. Until russias beaten into retreating no point in negotiating.

Since the circus in Oval office, Zelensky now know, how the game is played - he's now playing safe, politely obeying Trump/Vance temper tantrums (while trying to minimize the impact on frontline) and waiting till Putin/Russia step on Trump toe.

US already resumed military and intelligence support to Ukraine.

Now, when Ukraine withdrawed from Kursk, but Russia will show no signs of stopping and constantly delaying negotiations - Trump will bring THE STICK - as bad as Trump personality is, he won't allow Putin to make fool of him (at least not for long, I think Russia will be able to stall for a few weeks max, till Trump get frustrated).



We should now get over initial Trump shock and start to weaponize Trumpizm against Russia.