Russia-Ukraine War

[Tamina]

There was this video, a couple of days ago, showing Russian soldiers left alone in Ukraine without food and other rations. Apparently they were supposed to sign a contract that they were fired months ago and so not being part of any official numbers anymore.

IF true, I would say it gets impossible to a point where both sides won't even know by themselfes.

[Chips]

We don't actually know what Russia has lost... there's two different sides claiming different things. The latest maps seem to show rapid advances by Russia in various areas.

E.g. MoD (UK) assessement on 3rd March
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/14 ... 21/photo/1

4th March
https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/14 ... 74/photo/1

Ehh, I dunno that'd I'd call that rapid advances. The only area that shows Russia moving is out of Sumy through Romny. It's true, though, Russia is gaining in some areas but they're also losing in others.

For example, there's unconfirmed reports that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is back under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have withdrawn from Kherson. Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive to retake Kharkiv. And farmers continue to jack Russian tanks all over the place - hilarious, btw

I'll have to bow to your superior knowledge of tactics, capabilities and the local environment. I was under the impression a 200km push in a single day is considerable.

For example, there's unconfirmed reports that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is back under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have withdrawn from Kherson.

See, this is precisely why it's important to list sources. For example, read nothing about Nuclear Power plant anywhere, and Kherson see below from the BBC (published 5pm UK time Saturday 5th).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60632587

Protests against Russian occupation have broken out in the port city of Kherson, Ukraine's only big city to have been captured in the war so far.

About 2,000 people marched through the city centre, waving flags and singing the Ukrainian national anthem.

They shouted patriotic slogans including "Russians go home" and "Kherson is Ukraine".

Kherson, a key port on the Black Sea and the Dnieper River, fell to Russian troops earlier this week.

Videos of the protest on social media show Russian troops firing into the air to deter the approaching crowd.

One local resident, Yevhen, told the BBC the protest was a march for freedom and Ukrainian independence.

When asked whether Ukrainian forces were trying to retake Kherson, he said: "Every night we hear about six or 10 explosions. It sounds like mortars. We don't know who is bombing whom."

He added: "We are trying not to go outside because Russian troops are stopping cars, checking what is in the cars. They are even checking phones, searching for evidence of helping the Ukrainian army."

Other locals have told the BBC that Russian soldiers have a list of Ukrainian activists they want to capture.

While I'd love for things to be swinging epicly well in Ukraine's favour, it doesn't do us any justice to throw around unconfirmed rumours or random postings without some reason how we arrived at it -- otherwise we're no better than the person who was removed from the thread for propaganda

Meanwhile
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-60630351

Up to 4,000 people have taken part in a pro-Russia demonstration in the Serbian capital.

Friday's march was a show of support for Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.

Serbia has religious, ethnic and political ties with Russia that have existed for centuries.

Bonkers.

[mr.WHO]

I'll have to bow to your superior knowledge of tactics, capabilities and the local environment. I was under the impression a 200km push in a single day is considerable.

200 km push into enemy territory, without setting the logistic line, securing the front and exposed flanks is not impressive - it's suicide.
We have seen like a dozen such push since the war started and they didn't end well for Russians.

Taking territory is easy, holding it is hard.

We shouldn't really take much attention to territory gains/losses - it's really fluid with many areas and cities going from one side to another multiple times.

The only solid indicator will be both sides losses and in the end, who will be able to outlast the other side.

It's Russia who need to both take out enemy forces and hold territory.
Ukraine simply need to preserve it's forces and inflict enough losses to break Russia.
Even if some territories would still end up in their control they will be fighting lost battle against guerilla and take no leng term benefit from captured territory.
Eventually Russia will choke itself on it.

[Warenwolf]

And when we are talking about south, Putin's forces are trying to secure on west of crimea black sea coastline up to Donetsk that is blocked anyway to Ukraine and trying to link up with Donetsk area that is anyway bordering Russia.

In the South-East, the road to Odessa is blocked with dozens rivers and canals - it's a deathtrap for Russian advance.

That is your take on it. I don't see any deathtrap there compared to other directions. Apparently it is drier land too, compared to the north so muddy ground should be less of an issue if true, I guess.
During the ww2 several armies advanced that way (last time Soviet Southern Front) so it is not like it would be first time in history somebody tried that.

Linking up with Transnistria would actually block western supplies coming via southern corridor. Do similar thing in the North and then.... conventional war becomes one-sided after a while. While taking control of black sea coast between Crimea and Donetsk does nothing for shortening the war except forcing Russians to control and patrol more land.

[Vertigo 7]

I'll have to bow to your superior knowledge of tactics, capabilities and the local environment. I was under the impression a 200km push in a single day is considerable.

For example, there's unconfirmed reports that the Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant is back under Ukrainian control. Russian forces have withdrawn from Kherson.

See, this is precisely why it's important to list sources. For example, read nothing about Nuclear Power plant anywhere, and Kherson see below from the BBC (published 5pm UK time Saturday 5th).

Been following this for a while https://liveuamap.com/ as well as others but this is updated quite frequently and debunked stuff is getting yanked off. Little bit of a different picture than what UK's MOD reported. But as this has a little bit closer to real time info being gathered from a variety of sources.

Anywho, Russian forces had been in the Romny area for a while so...

[Gavrushka]

Just seen that both Visa and Mastercard are suspending operations in Russia, as have PayPal. That must be quite a major hit on the populace. I see the media in Russia now is (almost) entirely State controlled, so I'm wondering what Russian people know about what's going on.

Anyhow, Sky News article: https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-inva ... a-12558938

Is it possible that Putin will be removed from office? In the weeks and months ahead, the mass of sanctions are surely gonna make his position difficult, if not untenable.

[Warenwolf]

Is it possible that Putin will be removed from office? In the weeks and months ahead, the mass of sanctions are surely gonna make his position difficult, if not untenable.

Call me a cynic but just as I mentioned earlier in this thread, I still think that after Putin, we will just get Putin 2.0.

I see no genuine democratic movement which will remove the current regime and exchange it with something better. It will just be more of the same old thing going on.

[fiksal]

news from inside.

so it's now up to 3 yr in prison for voicing disagreement about the "special operation" in Ukraine.

that's in addition to 15 years for so called misinformation about the war. The reason why BBC and others are closing Russian offices.

You may have heard local non propaganda channel was closed, for referring to the war as "war".

Other channels and newspapers are wondering if they are next.

Some people wonder if they should stop discussing politics in public.

Is it possible that Putin will be removed from office? In the weeks and months ahead, the mass of sanctions are surely gonna make his position difficult, if not untenable.

Call me a cynic but just as I mentioned earlier in this thread, I still think that after Putin, we will just get Putin 2.0.

I see no genuine democratic movement which will remove the current regime and exchange it with something better. It will just be more of the same old thing going on.

I don't know.

The movement is hard to see because the government had spent years stomping it.

But sometimes things in Russia are changed quickly and by not that many people

[Golden_Gonads]

germany delivers their old "strela" missiles
in germany these are not allowed to be used anymore because of material deficiencies ^^

in other words, germany delivers its trash missiles to the ukranians (and possibly buys new ones for themselves)

in my view, thats a clear "f*ck'em, who cares" ^^

The Strela missiles were specifically requested by the Ukrainian military as they have excess amounts of the hardware to use them. If they were sent something more recent, they'd need the launchers as well.

[mr.WHO]

When you play that Battlefield skyscraper level too much:
https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 8520768515

[Warenwolf]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/statu ... Ly9NEpAAAA

Whole document
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... nt-march-5

March 5, 3:00 PM EST

Russian forces in Ukraine may have entered a possibly brief operational pause on March 5 as they prepare to resume operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolayiv, and possibly Odesa in the next 24-48 hours. Russian troops did not launch major ground offensive operations against Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the last 24 hours. Ukrainian forces near Kharkiv, on the other hand, conducted a counter-offensive that reportedly penetrated to the Ukrainian-Russian border.

Key Takeaways

• Russian forces conducted no major offensive operations against the cities of Kyiv, Kharkiv, or Mykolayiv in the past 24 hours;
  Russian troops continued to encircle, bomb, and shell Mariupol;
  Russian forces east of Kharkiv and in northern Luhansk Oblast appear to be trying to link up;
  Russian troops around Kherson city are likely preparing to resume offensive operations against Mykolayiv and ultimately Odesa; and
  Russian naval infantry in Crimea continue to prepare for amphibious operations, which would most likely occur near Odesa.

[mr.WHO]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/statu ... Ly9NEpAAAA

There is also interesting tweet below it:
https://twitter.com/campmattfield/statu ... 5172559880


This really show how fragile the Russian supply lines are - each road can only sustain X amount of traffic on a good day (e.g. zero malfunctions, accidents or sabotage or attacks).
Russia have huge material and human advantage, but they cannot use it due to bottlenecks of roads.

Note that NOW Russia is within attack range of several BIG cities.
If Kyiv is giving them headache, then now imagine they will have to commit to 5 more of such HUGE operations (and at least 2 cities like Zaporozie and Dniepro are safe from encirlement).
Unless Russia is prepared to raze those cities to the ground it will ruin them.

Russia has manpower and material advantage to win, but it will be pyrrhic victory.
Even if they win...they would have to rebuild it from their own pockets - they couldn't rebuild their tiny separatist republics without the sanctions and now they want to hold half or entire Ukraine?
That is strategic insanity.

Imagine Russian laughing at US for getting stuck for 20 years in Iraq and Afghanistan...and now they are going balls deep into the same horror.

[Warenwolf]

https://twitter.com/TheStudyofWar/statu ... Ly9NEpAAAA

There is also interesting tweet below it:
https://twitter.com/campmattfield/statu ... 5172559880

Ignore such guys. He is arguing with think-thank staffed with generals on whether realistic maps is being used or not. Everyone on the net is expert . Not saying that rest of your argument is wrong - just that be aware that so-called AOC maps can be presented in several ways and no map is inherently wrong or right. But be aware of their limitations of representation before inferring anything on situation on the ground.

Note that NOW Russia is within attack range of several BIG cities.
If Kyiv is giving them headache, then now imagine they will have to commit to 5 more of such HUGE operations (and at least 2 cities like Zaporozie and Dniepro are safe from encirlement).
Unless Russia is prepared to raze those cities to the ground it will ruin them.

Currently they are not really attacking all cities at once but focusing on 1 or 2. I agree with you that they don't have capacity to take all of them but they don't need to. They just need to hold Ukrainian inside the cities isolated from each other.
Ukraine has rather large cities - they only need to isolate them and the city defense will collapse due to inability to feed the population and the army (although such sieges are lengthy affairs and if not total, may last for years).

But, more relevant to the discussion, if large portions of Ukrainian army becomes trapped in besieged cities, it is only matter of time before they lose the war.

[mr.WHO]

Currently they are not really attacking all cities at once but focusing on 1 or 2. I agree with you that they don't have capacity to take all of them but they don't need to. They just need to hold Ukrainian inside the cities isolated from each other.
Ukraine has rather large cities - they only need to isolate them and the city defense will collapse due to inability to feed the population and the army (although such sieges are lengthy affairs and if not total, may last for years).

But, more relevant to the discussion, if large portions of Ukrainian army becomes trapped in besieged cities, it is only matter of time before they lose the war.

Forgive me for still thinking in some kind of sane categories, but besieging till starvation several big european cities in XXI century, will definetly not win any love for Russia anywhere, even inside Russia.
Additionally, historically speaking, long siege, even without combat, just sitting there and not letting anybody in or out is still the most cost intense military operation.

If they commit, they have two choices:
- cut the entire city and let it starve - very bad outcome for Russia from PR perspective
- let civilians out - it will let remaining resources to last longer for defenders - very bad outcome for Russian military as it will prolongate resistance


This is insanity.

[Alan Phipps]

@ Golden_Gonads: AFAIK, the DE Strela (I think they are Strela 2 / Grail rather than Strela 1 / Gaskin) MANPADS are considered as a single-use round of ammunition and each includes the discardible launcher. I don't *think* they are just missile bodies for use in some multiple barrel launcher - but I could be wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K32_Strela-2

[Golden_Gonads]

@ Golden_Gonads: AFAIK, the DE Strela (I think they are Strela 2 / Grail rather than Strela 1 / Gaskin) MANPADS are considered as a single-use round of ammunition and each includes the discardible launcher. I don't *think* they are just missile bodies for use in some multiple barrel launcher - but I could be wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/9K32_Strela-2

Ehhh. I either read or assumed that was why they were requested, no idea which. Regardless, they were what the Ukrainians asked for, not just Germany thinking 'we need to clear out that old warehouse of dodgy explosives, lets send them as a 'donation'.

[Tamina]

Even if they win...they would have to rebuild it from their own pockets - they couldn't rebuild their tiny separatist republics without the sanctions and now they want to hold half or entire Ukraine?
That is strategic insanity.

Did they rebuild Chechenia (or however it is called in English). I actually don't know, but if my history classes in school haven't gone completely to waste on me, the Soviets back in the day didn't really cared about rebuilding but stripping the countries resources.

[Chips]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60637185

The invasion was not going well, Russia was becoming less powerful and it cannot continue, he said.

In his interview with the BBC's Sunday Morning show, the defence chief painted a picture of Russian forces suffering from heavy losses and low morale, with kit failings and a massive military convoy stalled outside the capital, Kyiv.

The Kremlin has lost more troops in a week than the UK did in 20 years in Afghanistan, he said, and some "lead elements of Russian forces" have been decimated.

He described stories of soldiers whose morale had been so knocked they had abandoned the convoy destined for Kyiv to camp in the forest.

I mean, he's on UK tv but at the same time, his sources are supposed to be better than the medias? I've no idea! But it does sound promising, with obvious caveat "promising" starts from such a depressing position.

As for attacking several cities, all this damage being caused is going to take decades to rebuild. Could it be that they've gone from "try to take it intact" to just "demolish it, if we can't have it, let them rebuild for 20 years".

Meanwhile, a few days ago this was published
https://www.defencetalk.com/near-ukrain ... tly-78294/

On a runway near the Ukrainian border, 14 wide-body aircraft arrive on average each day — a carefully calibrated operation mounted at top speed to deliver tons of Western military assistance to Kyiv.

A handful of journalists accompanying Milley were allowed to observe as personnel prepared about 100 Javelin anti-tank missiles for delivery to the border. Pictures were forbidden.

Men in civilian clothes used forklifts to move the missiles, which were stacked on pallets and only covered in plastic.

On the runway, the cargo hold of a US Air Force C-17 transport plane has just been shut — the delivery was complete. At the same moment, another C-17 was landing.

If all true, sounds like they've had/got a reasonable supply chain of munitions for Ukraine arriving. Perhaps the military arms promises are doing as much for halting Russia as the political/private sector is doing to the Russian economy. If it keeps going at this rate...

However, I vaguely remember from the start of all this it was pointed out Ukraine may have most of it's professional forces in the East, hence why it's being held so effectively.

[mr.WHO]

Did they rebuild Chechenia (or however it is called in English). I actually don't know, but if my history classes in school haven't gone completely to waste on me, the Soviets back in the day didn't really cared about rebuilding but stripping the countries resources.

It's hard to say, not much coverage since ages, but it looks like they rebuild Gronzy as some kind of facade to present it to the rest of the world.
The rest of Chechnia is most probably still in rubble.

Hell even inside Russia proper, it's just Moscow and St. Petersburg that have quality life and infrastructure, everything else is just a 2nd or 3rd class colony to feed these two.
This kinda make you right, that they could not care, since they don't care for their on as well.

[Warenwolf]

Forgive me for still thinking in some kind of sane categories, but besieging till starvation several big european cities in XXI century, will definetly not win any love for Russia anywhere, even inside Russia.

You are thinking as civilian with purely civilian background (according to info you provided earlier in this thread) which (hopefully) is not sociopath or psychopath.

Additionally, historically speaking, long siege, even without combat, just sitting there and not letting anybody in or out is still the most cost intense military operation.

Not really. I don't see how you come to this conclusion. Cost intense (as in manpower intense?) is actual fighting for city blocks (urban warfare). But bypassing points of hard defense in order to be able to go after the focus point of offensive as fast as possible is staple of warfare at least 100 years back in time.Operation Barbarossa (invasion of SSSR by Third Reich) was (in)famous for this.

If they commit, they have two choices:

My point being is that they can choose what to do while locking Ukrainian forces into cities.


Now using starvation as weapon against civilians intentionally is frown upon last 50 years. But it is not an unusual tactic.
In the siege of Aleppo, Russians both advised and provided air support to Syrian pro-Assad forces. City fell one month after the last convoy with food arrived in the city. Same war has plenty of such cases, less known but better example is siege of the town Madaya.

I have strong suspicions that Mariupol in Ukraine would be first victim of same tactic BUT that the blame for civilian suffering will be blamed on Ukrainians by Putin.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60601235 (Mariupol two days ago ).
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60629851 (Mariupol yesterday )

PS:
I don't see how much PR matters for Putin right now. Civilian targets have already been struck in this war.