Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Rubles not doing so well today. Down to 0.0065

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

[notaterran]

The topic of a no-fly zone keeps coming up in the news. For now the answer to that is basically "enough people in the West have to be comfortable with the idea of a significant escalation".

Example

As it's already been mentioned in this thread, if Russia keeps committing atrocities we might be at that point in a month or two. Personally I have my doubts because energy prices might hurt the West too much.

[mr.WHO]

In order to ease the reliance on Russian gas, US and EU are negotiating...with Iran and Wenezuela - what can possibly go wrong?

[Vertigo 7]

The topic of a no-fly zone keeps coming up in the news. For now the answer to that is basically "enough people in the West have to be comfortable with the idea of a significant escalation".

Example

As it's already been mentioned in this thread, if Russia keeps committing atrocities we might be at that point in a month or two. Personally I have my doubts because energy prices might hurt the West too much.

Putin's gonna keep pushing and pretty soon energy prices won't matter to anyone in the west. We've tightened our belts and gave up luxuries and sacrificed before in the face of tyranny and we toppled a brutal regime and came out better for it on the other side. We can do it again.

[exogenesis]

[emotive]
OK then, let's have a vote on whether UN / NATO send in the fighters to enable this no fly zone.

Oh wait, it's not a democracy - the individual 'national leaders' decide,
so no likely agreement there ??

Get the freakin planes in the air already !

Why should this imply a need to attack/remove in-range 'potential' Russian airbourne capabilities,
surely it about protecting the Ukraine airspace without (excessive) engagement.

What could possibly be the price ?
[/emotive]

[Cpt.Jericho]

What could possibly be the price ?

WW3. Or why do you think the US haven't already established a no-fly zone?

[burger1]

This plane things getting annoying. We're giving them planes. No wait we're not. Just a few days to transfer. Wait nope. Etc....

There won't be a no fly zone.

One of he ships from Snake Island got sunk or heavily damaged? Vasily Bykov Project 22160

I'm guessing there will be a plan for dealing with the AWACS.

Armoured trains spotted somewhere. Not sure what their range is.

[fiksal]

There are reports the Kyiv mayor has just been shot dead (assassinated?) - Are there any corroborating reports? (Source Sky News, breaking.)

And is he who I think he is?

*edit* it is the mayor of Hostomel. - Report just updated.

Vitali Klitschko is in Kyiv

[Gavrushka]

There are reports the Kyiv mayor has just been shot dead (assassinated?) - Are there any corroborating reports? (Source Sky News, breaking.)

And is he who I think he is?

*edit* it is the mayor of Hostomel. - Report just updated.

Vitali Klitschko is in Kyiv

Yeah, I realised that, and it was a case of the Sky 'Breaking News' simply stated 'Mayor shot close to Kyiv'. - Simply bad phrasing by the news agency. It was corrected minutes later.

[mr.WHO]

This plane things getting annoying. We're giving them planes. No wait we're not. Just a few days to transfer. Wait nope. Etc....

There won't be a no fly zone.

The thing with planes is not so easy as it was though initially:
- other than Poland, the ex-soviet planes are most or entire air force of a few Eastern NATO countries (you don't donate your entire air force when there is a war next door).
- Poland Migs-29 could be donated without making a big dent in airforce, but they are very old (were grounded like two years ago after accidents) and have some NATO electronic that shouldn't be used outside the NATO.
- Putin threatened to see sending planes as declaration of war, so it might be they would have to be transported by land.


No fly-zone would not work purely from military standpoint:
- NATO planes would have to operate a bit far from their airfield, while russians would operate very close to their.
- russians could just roll in a lot of SAM on their territory and fire on NATO planes, which would require bombing Belaruss and Russia (basically a WW3 territory).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hob1nbP_UKM

This war will decide on land, Ukraine received a lot of MANPADS to detere russians from CAS.
No-fly zone won't help, it would be much better to to donate some mid-long range SAMs with some "volunteer" operators.
Something for effective counterbattery (to deal with Russian artillery) would help a lot as well.

[Falcrack]

They should send in Patriot SAM batteries. They could be sent by land. They would need a lot more training to operate, but hopefully somebody has had some foresight and is already training Ukrainian crews on how to operate them.

[mr.WHO]

They should send in Patriot SAM batteries. They could be sent by land. They would need a lot more training to operate, but hopefully somebody has had some foresight and is already training Ukrainian crews on how to operate them.

Yep, send some SAM batteries and then, by accident, find retired operators for those batteries among Ukraine Foreign Legion.

This would be totaly legal and you can deny the involvement in Russia face.
Hell that was Cold War 101 in Korea and Vietnam.

[Falcrack]

They should send in Patriot SAM batteries. They could be sent by land. They would need a lot more training to operate, but hopefully somebody has had some foresight and is already training Ukrainian crews on how to operate them.

Yep, send some SAM batteries and then, by accident, find retired operators for those batteries among Ukraine Foreign Legion.

This would be totaly legal and you can deny the involvement in Russia face.
Hell that was Cold War 101 in Korea and Vietnam.

I mean, the Russians pulled the same stunt in Donbass supplying their little green men with heavy SAMs. Would be good to let them get a taste of their own tactics. Maybe send the Patriots in secretly, set them up kinda near the border, wait for Russian AWACS to get a little too close, then...

[Alan Phipps]

However strictly legitimate such devious workarounds may appear, you can be sure that the associated narrative and interpretation of them from the Russian side will be quite different and will be used to legitimise an escalation in scope or atrocity. In short, don't expect Putin to recognise any contrived 'rule-play' used by NATO members.

I honestly don't think anyone in NATO will risk seriously poking the bear with any sharpened sticks of any size until or unless a NATO partner is directly attacked. Meanwhile, seen as a much safer course, the supply to Ukraine of intelligence, logistic support, materiel for self-defence, and humanitarian aid will continue alongside the mounting economic and political pressures.

[Tamina]

Countries: "We will send fighter jets!"
NATO: "Okay, we will allow it!"
Countries: "Don't know what you are talking about"

[mr.WHO]

However strictly legitimate such devious workarounds may appear, you can be sure that the associated narrative and interpretation of them from the Russian side will be quite different and will be used to legitimise an escalation in scope or atrocity. In short, don't expect Putin to recognise any contrived 'rule-play' used by NATO members.

Ah yes, I'm sure the Cold War would end fine, if only one side would stick to the rules.
Putin is setting the rules of the game.
if he want to play dirty I don't see why we shouldn't give him the taste of his own medicine.


Besides you do realize you have to deal with, what is basically already a tyrannical regime?
He can spin and sell any narrative to Russians no matter what NATO will do.

Just today they started to make a narrative that Ukraine was secretely developing bio-wapons and nuclear weapons.

[Vertigo 7]

Well, we could send in units and call it a "special military operation". Works for lord Putin, right?

[notaterran]

I honestly don't think anyone in NATO will risk seriously poking the bear with any sharpened sticks of any size until or unless a NATO partner is directly attacked.

Perhaps it won't even have to come to a direct attack. If energy prices skyrocket in the West -or if stronger sanctions create a scarcity- it won't take much foresight to predict a very difficult winter (and by difficult I mean bordering on humanitarian crisis). This combined with the horrific daily images of Russian atrocities might sway Western public opinion enough to start considering more drastic measures to end the war. Having said that, I personally think that sky-high energy prices will have the opposite effect and people will be even more reluctant to get involved. We'll know for sure in a few months. I'm not looking forward to that.

[mr.WHO]

Latest announcement from Polish Ministry of Foreign affairs:
Poland is ready to immediately donate all it's Mig-29 to US and move them to Ramstein airbase.
It the same time asks US to donate replacement planes to Poland.

Polish ministry also encourage other ex-soviet NATO contries to do the same.


Not a bad move - get the planes for US and let the big boys do their dick waving contest

I wonder how US will handle the delivery (Ukraine will probably find a lot of ownerless, unmarked Mig-29 in garage somewhere soon).

[Chips]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60604952

Men in Russia aged 18-27 who do not have an exemption - such as studying or looking after young children - are drafted into the military for a year.
...
...
A US Pentagon briefing on Friday suggested that a significant number of the men fighting in Ukraine are conscripts, and that might account for their inexperience and lack of awareness about what they were expected to do.

But it appears the men's belief - that they were simply on drills rather than being sent into combat - was not unique to conscripts.

Would certainly explain why they appear to do so badly. They're not really trained... they probably don't really know how to fight, and have zero desire/willpower.
There was an article the other day which covered how the pilots seem to be bad etc - lack of training, lack of mock combat etc. It also included bits about their land army, which while large, sounds like it was never formed to fight outside its own borders; they don't have the necessary transportation capabilities.

If it weren't for the nukes, there'd probably not a huge amount to worry about. Some of their equipment may be decent, but overwhelmingly it sounds old/outdated, and the people operating it are badly trained.