Russia-Ukraine War

[Vertigo 7]

Latest announcement from Polish Ministry of Foreign affairs:
Poland is ready to immediately donate all it's Mig-29 to US and move them to Ramstein airbase.
It the same time asks US to donate replacement planes to Poland.

Polish ministry also encourage other ex-soviet NATO contries to do the same.


Not a bad move - get the planes for US and let the big boys do their dick waving contest

I wonder how US will handle the delivery (Ukraine will probably find a lot of ownerless, unmarked Mig-29 in garage somewhere soon).

I'd bet F15s and F16s will find their way to Poland. As far as getting the Migs into Ukraine, prolly land them at a civilian airport close to the border and catch and uber back.

[burger1]

Believe the plane thing when it happens. Until then maybe be a bit skeptical.

Mc Donald's has shut down temporarily in Russia but is still paying their employees. Adidas has stopped selling stuff in Russia.

[notaterran]

There are interventionists in both parties right now but they're not a majority. I can imagine that as the war rages on their voices will get louder.

Example

I worry that it's only a matter of time until something happens on the wrong side of a border, for example when Russia is attacking the western part of Ukraine.

On a lighter note, does the word "nucular" even exist?

[Cpt.Jericho]

I worry that it's only a matter of time until something happens on the wrong side of a border, for example when Russia is attacking the western part of Ukraine.

Doesn't matter much which side is making something happening on any side of a border. The result will put an end to the peace movement, fridays for future or black lifes matter - it will put an end to any kind of movement that not originates from a cockroach and more simpler lifeforms.

On a lighter note: The universe will hardly take any notice of this.

[notaterran]

So Russia is now threatening to weaponize the supply of gas (Link). I guess it's now a race against the clock for Germany and other countries to find alternatives before winter. So, an escalation of hostilities.

Does Germany have nuclear plants?

[Cpt.Jericho]

AFAIK Germany has three NPPs left online. Still three too many if you ask me. Nuclear power is expensive (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you), it's not CO2 neutral (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) and it's not safe (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) - just take a look at what happens in Ukraine atm.

[Vertigo 7]

Oh, so it's normal operation for Russian tanks to roll into a nuclear plant and start blasting structures?

[Imperial Good]

AFAIK Germany has three NPPs left online. Still three too many if you ask me. Nuclear power is expensive (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you), it's not CO2 neutral (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) and it's not safe (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) - just take a look at what happens in Ukraine atm.

What alternative is there for base load generation? Burn more natural gas or coal which is not at all CO2 neutral or even readily available anymore?

It is very easy to find problems with a solution but finding a better one is difficult. If they could use some sort of miracle power generation technology to replace nuclear then chances are all countries would have.

Latest announcement from Polish Ministry of Foreign affairs:
Poland is ready to immediately donate all it's Mig-29 to US and move them to Ramstein airbase.
It the same time asks US to donate replacement planes to Poland.

Polish ministry also encourage other ex-soviet NATO contries to do the same.


Not a bad move - get the planes for US and let the big boys do their dick waving contest

I wonder how US will handle the delivery (Ukraine will probably find a lot of ownerless, unmarked Mig-29 in garage somewhere soon).

There are a few issues with this in my opinion. First is that the reason Poland is trading out those aircraft is that they are not very good or usable in modern combat to begin with. Russia has already lost a number of fighter jets of its own during the war, and these might be newer/better than those Poland is giving Ukraine (I am not an expert on Soviet era fighter aircraft). However the biggest issue is that Ukraine cannot actually use such aircraft given that they have no functional military airbases, as those were the first targets destroyed by Russia during the invasion. They also cannot build any such airbases due to Russia immediately destroying them due to current air superiority. It also is not a valid option to launch and stage them in a foreign country as that would amount to a declaration of war by the hosting country.

As such I can see one of three things happening to these aircraft. They end up stuck in some foreign airbase until the war is mostly over, with either them being retained should Ukraine fall or Ukraine using them once they rebuild a functional airbase to house them. They end stuck in storage, possibly underground, in Ukraine somewhere and never seeing any action and being spoils for the victor. Or they end up getting destroyed during transport by Russian forces.

The few military drones Ukraine are using are likely much easier to deploy and store than large numbers of fighter jet aircraft. Likely using civilian infrastructure such as stretches of road and might be able to be packed away into civilian vehicles or anonymous facilities. I doubt full sized fighter jets could be deployed in such a manner and anything requiring large visible infrastructure instantly is a missile target.

[burger1]

So back to no planes again.

Drones might be better in some circumstances any ways. Hopefully they get more drones.

[Cpt.Jericho]

AFAIK Germany has three NPPs left online. Still three too many if you ask me. Nuclear power is expensive (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you), it's not CO2 neutral (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) and it's not safe (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) - just take a look at what happens in Ukraine atm.

What alternative is there for base load generation? Burn more natural gas or coal which is not at all CO2 neutral or even readily available anymore?

It is very easy to find problems with a solution but finding a better one is difficult. If they could use some sort of miracle power generation technology to replace nuclear then chances are all countries would have.

This is a problem over 10 years old in Germany. Coming now lamenting that there are no alternatives is lame; subsidies for these technologies have been cut during that time.

[Sovereign01]

AFAIK Germany has three NPPs left online. Still three too many if you ask me. Nuclear power is expensive (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you), it's not CO2 neutral (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) and it's not safe (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) - just take a look at what happens in Ukraine atm.

What alternative is there for base load generation? Burn more natural gas or coal which is not at all CO2 neutral or even readily available anymore?

It is very easy to find problems with a solution but finding a better one is difficult. If they could use some sort of miracle power generation technology to replace nuclear then chances are all countries would have.

This is a problem over 10 years old in Germany. Coming now lamenting that there are no alternatives is lame; subsidies for these technologies have been cut during that time.

Entirely brought about by their knee-jerk reaction to what happened to Fukushima.

[Olterin]

[...]
There are a few issues with this in my opinion. First is that the reason Poland is trading out those aircraft is that they are not very good or usable in modern combat to begin with. Russia has already lost a number of fighter jets of its own during the war, and these might be newer/better than those Poland is giving Ukraine (I am not an expert on Soviet era fighter aircraft). However the biggest issue is that Ukraine cannot actually use such aircraft given that they have no functional military airbases, as those were the first targets destroyed by Russia during the invasion. They also cannot build any such airbases due to Russia immediately destroying them due to current air superiority. It also is not a valid option to launch and stage them in a foreign country as that would amount to a declaration of war by the hosting country.

As such I can see one of three things happening to these aircraft. They end up stuck in some foreign airbase until the war is mostly over, with either them being retained should Ukraine fall or Ukraine using them once they rebuild a functional airbase to house them. They end stuck in storage, possibly underground, in Ukraine somewhere and never seeing any action and being spoils for the victor. Or they end up getting destroyed during transport by Russian forces.

The few military drones Ukraine are using are likely much easier to deploy and store than large numbers of fighter jet aircraft. Likely using civilian infrastructure such as stretches of road and might be able to be packed away into civilian vehicles or anonymous facilities. I doubt full sized fighter jets could be deployed in such a manner and anything requiring large visible infrastructure instantly is a missile target.

Hm, and what about reports of actual Ukrainian MiG-29s successfully engaging in air combat, at least past the first few days of the invasion? That would indicate the initial strike didn't destroy everything. Besides, yes, drones are smaller than manned fighters, but actually not by much - they still need engines and weapon hardpoints, those don't come for free, they need lift i.e. they need wingspan. So a combat drone is maybe 2-3m shorter than a manned plane? Not that significant in terms of what runways it can and cannot use.

No, the two biggest issues with the planes, as far as I can see them, are: how to get them to Ukraine without provoking Russia into declaring NATO states as parties in the war (!!), and do these planes need refitting of avionics etc to not give up NATO hardware should they get captured or parts of them scavenged (!!)

[Vertigo 7]

I really don't see what it matters. Putin and his puppets will accuse the west of provocations for even looking in the general direction of Russia.

[Chips]

AFAIK Germany has three NPPs left online. Still three too many if you ask me. Nuclear power is expensive (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you), it's not CO2 neutral (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) and it's not safe (no matter what lobbyists may try to tell you) - just take a look at what happens in Ukraine atm.

It's a very complicated scenario though - for instance, wind and solar isn't carbon neutral on creation and have operational lifespans. However, as soon as you talk about energy storage from the good times (i.e. when sun is shining vs night time, or when the wind is blowing vs little air movement), that requires mining and refining of materials that are not only non carbon neutral but also damaging to the environment, both in manufacture, re-processing and waste.

We don't currently have an energy panacea; the reality is we likely need a variety of sources until they manage to actually accomplish fusion. It's a discussion for another topic, but the world marches on with companies profiteering over ridiculous "carbon offsetting" (hello, it takes decades to offset your carbon, so it's basically a "carry on as usual" pollute pass for cash now) schemes as pretending-to-act, and continually clearing or damaging vital ecosystems that'll help make a gradual change into a irreversible tipping point.

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ping-point

The Amazon is approaching a tipping point, data shows, after which the rainforest would be lost with “profound” implications for the global climate and biodiversity.

Gas was seen as a "clean" (CO2 + Water by product) source, with the added benefit of being able to ramp up/down power production very rapidly indeed to cater for changes to the energy (nuclear also has this). As nuclear costs a fortune and has that nasty side effect you mention of waste + potential disaster, gas has been a go-to as a means to produce large scale affordable power for too many years. It's not that surprising that countries have come to rely upon this to meet their requirements/pollution limitations, nor that more countries are too as they transition. Hence price rises (not helped, as someone mentioned, when Japan did a complete u-turn on nuclear and went all in on gas).

Without harking on too long, there was talk in our own parliament today referring to power companies and windfall taxes on profits given some are making record profits. The argument was "if we tax it harder they'll just raise prices and not invest in renewables". I'd question how much they invest in renewable power sources already; the answer is they don't (see Shell response a few weeks back with roughly the same claim before it was shown they put like 2% of profits into green energy).

Govts are just slow to respond/take action to things, and most companies too centred on profits, for anything to change. Eastern Europe is going to try and source gas, it's not readily available so the prices are likely to rise steeply. If the US is gas self sufficient, they may likely slap export ban on it to prevent price rises at home (a graph the other day showed gas prices are 30% higher in USA, whereas Europe it's in the hundreds of percent higher).

However, I believe there was an argument in the EU about buying on a spot price rather than 2 years in advance, and that's also caused price rises? But this is getting a long way off topic (though still relevant to gas dependence on Russia and what sanctions will cause to us all).

I avoided filling my car up a few weeks ago due to the price. Think it's already 10% higher than the last time I filled... and an entire tank cost £100 approx back then.

[Falcrack]

It seems like Western nations are allowing themselves to send just enough weapons to make it hard for Russia, but are averse to sending the sort of stiff which would tip the balance decidedly in Ukraine's favor. Like they are scared if they do enough to actually stop Putin's invasion, that Putin will launch a nuke at them or something. Putin on the other hand never had any sort of risk aversion apparently, he is not afraid to escalate enough in order to get what he wants. Why are Western nations so afraid to do what it takes to achieve victory, while Putin gets a free pass and feels he can freely escalate things as much as he wants?

[clakclak]

It seems like Western nations are allowing themselves to send just enough weapons to make it hard for Russia, but are averse to sending the sort of stiff which would tip the balance decidedly in Ukraine's favor. Like they are scared if they do enough to actually stop Putin's invasion, that Putin will launch a nuke at them or something. Putin on the other hand never had any sort of risk aversion apparently, he is not afraid to escalate enough in order to get what he wants. Why are Western nations so afraid to do what it takes to achieve victory, while Putin gets a free pass and feels he can freely escalate things as much as he wants?

You answered you own question allready. Because the West would very much prefer to not get nuked.

[burger1]

It seems like Western nations are allowing themselves to send just enough weapons to make it hard for Russia, but are averse to sending the sort of stiff which would tip the balance decidedly in Ukraine's favor. Like they are scared if they do enough to actually stop Putin's invasion, that Putin will launch a nuke at them or something. Putin on the other hand never had any sort of risk aversion apparently, he is not afraid to escalate enough in order to get what he wants. Why are Western nations so afraid to do what it takes to achieve victory, while Putin gets a free pass and feels he can freely escalate things as much as he wants?

Or they let Putin think he has a chance then yank the rug out under him. It's like playing a game against players that are cheating. Hopefully they have some tricks up their sleeve this week.

[Tamina]

I don't think the weapon deliveries have anything to do with "getting nuked" but rather that you don't want to put high-end NATO defence technology into the hands of untrained soldiers in a war zone, who might deliver the technology into the hands of Russia either by force or free will, either as a whole or in tiny shatterd parts. Or whatever happens with that stuff after the war is "won" for one side or the other. Aside from logistical problems like: How to get a fighter jet safely into a warzone.
I would assume that NATO countries can trade with Ukraine as much as they want, as part of both countries sovereignty.

[greypanther]

Just seen a report by a Danish You Tuber, who lives in rural Russia, married to a Russian women, with three children by her, who says that sanctions have had little effect so far. Diesel and petrol prices have even dropped a little. Prices in the supermarket remain pretty much the same, with the only empty shelves being for dried pet food and cooking oil, ( odd? ) though not completely empty. Even German beer still in stock! He filmed from inside one such supermarket. I guess it will take time to filter down. He needs to be careful, being a foreign national, filming in Russia I suspect.

Whereas here in the UK, diesel has gone up 10p a litre in 24 hours. Prices in the supermarket today also seemed raised already...

[mr.WHO]

Just seen a report by a Danish You Tuber, who lives in rural Russia, married to a Russian women, with three children by her, who says that sanctions have had little effect so far. Diesel and petrol prices have even dropped a little. Prices in the supermarket remain pretty much the same, with the only empty shelves being for dried pet food and cooking oil, ( odd? ) though not completely empty. Even German beer still in stock! He filmed from inside one such supermarket. I guess it will take time to filter down. He needs to be careful, being a foreign national, filming in Russia I suspect.

Isn't this a "good case" scenario? Hit the oligarchs hard, but not common Russians?
Like we need Putin out, not second bolshevik revolution.