Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Prices on Feb 28, 2022 according to this video. Median wage 856 usd/month (110,000 Russian Rubles) at current exchange rate. Still ok.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTPCjXxX9_k

Peace talks Thursday morning in Turkey. Expectations are low.

[fiksal]

Those are not people living in the city with mortgages, that jumped to 20% rates, from around 13%.

People that use cell phones, shop at IKEA, enjoy good food that they think is Russian but owned by now closed foreign companies. Or that like to fly for a vacation or on business, even within Russia.

Not to mention people who are not used to full on enemy of the state censorship.


Things will change

[mr.WHO]

You know what, this really blow my mind.

Mortgages? Muh oil prices? Can't have video games?

There is a cold wave coming to the battlezones - a lot od people gonna freeze to death.
Both Russia and Ukraine are responsible for like 30% of wheat export and most of it was going to third world countries - this will cause a lot of problems, even more wars there.


This is really a "let them eat cake moment".


The only good thing that after COVID and now this, a lot of people will start to see global supply chains as a danger.
A lot of smart people will have a chance to figure out how to replace global good with local replacements (or invent them).

[greypanther]

Those are not people living in the city with mortgages, that jumped to 20% rates, from around 13%.

People that use cell phones, shop at IKEA, enjoy good food that they think is Russian but owned by now closed foreign companies. Or that like to fly for a vacation or on business, even within Russia.

Not to mention people who are not used to full on enemy of the state censorship.


Things will change

This is true, they live on a farmstead that has been in her family for many years, so I presume no mortgage. Not farmland though, forest. Not sure how they make a living, but his wife was a translator, as well as them having an apartment in Moscow. He used to work as a surveyor, or similar, again based in Moscow. Now I think he mostly relies on You Tube, he has over a quarter of a million subscribers, which can be quite lucrative, or so I am told. If You Tube shuts off Russia I think he will be stuffed.

They are preparing for the worst it seems though, which makes sense. Prepare for the worst, hope for the best?

Yes, things need to change, if the latest report from the BBC ( Whitehouse, ) is accurate, very quickly too. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60683248

Russia could be planning a chemical or biological weapon attack in Ukraine - and "we should all be on the lookout", the White House has said.

Press secretary Jen Psaki said Russia's claims about US biological weapon labs, and chemical weapon development in Ukraine, were preposterous.

She called the false claims an "obvious ploy" to try to justify further premeditated, unprovoked attacks.

It comes after Western officials shared similar concerns about fresh attacks.

They said they were "very concerned" about the risk the war could escalate, and particularly the possibility of Russia using non-conventional weapons.

This most likely refers to chemical weapons although the term also covers tactical (small-scale) nuclear weapons, biological weapons and dirty bombs.

If I considered that Putin was sane, I would be less worried, but he is obviously not, Psychotic at the very least. Suicidal possibly too. Worst about that is that I read he has two daughters somewhere, of an age that he may even have grandchildren, but no one seems to know where they are are. Southern hemisphere perhaps? I just cannot get where he is coming from really...

[clakclak]

So leaving the politics aside for a moment:

What can be done to help?

So far what I and people around me have tried/done is:

We currently have one empty room for a short time, as one of my flatmates is not home. There is an initiative in my city that searches for short term accomodations for refugees and we got in touch with them to tell them someone can stay for us at least for at least a few weeks. That being said our flat is small and once our flatmate is back we will not have any spare rooms.

A friend of mine orginised an aid convoi from Germany to the Polish border to directly deliver goods there to refugees and/or having it delivered straight into Ukraine. As they are, understandabily, a bit reluctant to cross the border into Ukraine they will need to work with other aid companies once they get there. However as most of us don't have a lot of money they are still a bit short on gas money sadly, even after asking around and getting donations from friends.

Other people I know have worked to organise rallies to try lobby the German government in the early days to impose more sanctions. Now these rallies mostly serve the purpose of raising funds for Ukraine based aid foundations. I hope to get more involved in those soon.


So in what other ways can one help people in this situation?

[Vertigo 7]

Join the Ukraine Foreign Legion or donate to relief orgs (research them first!)

[Chips]

Join the Ukraine Foreign Legion or donate to relief orgs (research them first!)

People without proper (ex)military experience should not join the Ukraine Foreign Legion. The number of articles as to why are in abundance -- but the short of it is, more of a liability than a help.

Donating to recognised aid organisations that are running campaigns are likely the best bet to start; they have the supply chains, the organisation, the volunteers to get aid to where it is needed. They likewise should be able to determine what is needed and what isn't, and act appropriately to obtain/supply it. They may also have the ability to get aid into the country (some are focussed upon the civilian issues at the border, others on aid within Ukraine itself - via supplies, repairs etc).

As an individual, donating physical goods can be an issue - e.g. London had a location that started, but found moving goods to the EU has red tape (on what is bring brought in, not all is allowed through even if it is for refugees from Ukraine) and beyond the obvious logistic issues, not all is suitable/wanted/usable anyway. So it really is best left to those who have decades of experience in this and help them financially in that case instead.

Obviously offering a home / place is generous and undoubtedly helping in Poland significantly, but from the UK that's unlikely to be taken up (though I've no doubt there'd be tens to hundreds of thousands will to help out) as they're enforcing qualifying for a visa (even a "special" one whereby you've family in the UK).

[Warenwolf]

Join the Ukraine Foreign Legion or donate to relief orgs (research them first!)

People without proper (ex)military experience should not join the Ukraine Foreign Legion. The number of articles as to why are in abundance -- but the short of it is, more of a liability than a help.

This. Thousand time this.

In addition to your post, I would add that people with medical education and training are invaluable now for Ukraine.

[Vertigo 7]

Join the Ukraine Foreign Legion or donate to relief orgs (research them first!)

People without proper (ex)military experience should not join the Ukraine Foreign Legion. The number of articles as to why are in abundance -- but the short of it is, more of a liability than a help.

This. Thousand time this.

In addition to your post, I would add that people with medical education and training are invaluable now for Ukraine.

Well, ya know, there's vets all around the world. I'm one of em. I'd do it in a heartbeat if I wasn't a single parent. If someone wants to help, regardless if they have military experience or not, who are either one of you to say no? You going to tell all the women in Ukraine that never had military or police experience they can't take up arms?

I'll further add, there is a process to go through, you don't just show up with a pop gun and you're in. Ukraine's defense ministry has the final say so on accepting volunteers.

[mr.WHO]

So far what I and people around me have tried/done is:

We currently have one empty room for a short time, as one of my flatmates is not home. There is an initiative in my city that searches for short term accomodations for refugees and we got in touch with them to tell them someone can stay for us at least for at least a few weeks. That being said our flat is small and once our flatmate is back we will not have any spare rooms.

A friend of mine orginised an aid convoi from Germany to the Polish border to directly deliver goods there to refugees and/or having it delivered straight into Ukraine. As they are, understandabily, a bit reluctant to cross the border into Ukraine they will need to work with other aid companies once they get there. However as most of us don't have a lot of money they are still a bit short on gas money sadly, even after asking around and getting donations from friends.

Other people I know have worked to organise rallies to try lobby the German government in the early days to impose more sanctions. Now these rallies mostly serve the purpose of raising funds for Ukraine based aid foundations. I hope to get more involved in those soon.

These are the best things an average person can do and this is how we will make it through the worst part of this conflict.

Someone might think this is not enough, but this really make a difference.
This is a real action, not just changing your twitter account picture to a random flag for two weeks or a month.

So in what other ways can one help people in this situation?

Keep the pressure on politicians not to be in bed with Putin and lobby to severe ties as soon as possible (I do realize changing oil supply is something that take some time, EU declaration to cut Russian supply by 2/3 in a year or two is a good step).
Then when the bombs stop falling, you need to keep a watch on politicians and business, coz they will be ready to jump into bed with Russia imediately (even after Putin, Russia won't change a lot in less than decade).

[Chips]

who are either one of you to say no? You going to tell all the women in Ukraine that never had military or police experience they can't take up arms?

Oh, I didn't. It was the head of the armed forces, the govt minister for the armed forces, and the ex-soldiers who are travelling who said "please don't unless you've experience".
The reasons were (and included even if ex military without combat experience) that with a language barrier and no equipment, no real training, you're not going to be useful in combat and they're more likely to risk their lives trying to save you instead.

Not *my* recommendation, but those at the very top.

Living in the country is different; for example, national service means plenty of Ukraine men (and women) have some form of military experience, know the language, know the country side.

https://cis-legislation.com/document.fw ... Fatherland.

This Law performs legal regulation of the relations between the state and citizens of Ukraine in connection with accomplishment of the constitutional debt by them on protection of the Fatherland, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine, and also determines the general principles of passing in Ukraine of military service.

Chapter I. General provisions
Article 1. Conscription
1. Protection of the Fatherland, independence and territorial integrity of Ukraine is the constitutional obligation of citizens of Ukraine.

Women fulfill military duty on equal terms with men (except as specified, stipulated by the legislation concerning maternity welfare and the childhood, and also prohibition of discrimination on the basis of floor) which includes acceptance in voluntary procedure (under the contract) and conscription, passing of military service, service in war reserve, accomplishment of military duty in inventory and observance of rules of military accounting.

2. The conscription is established for the purpose of training of citizens of Ukraine for protection of the Fatherland, providing with staff the Armed Forces of Ukraine formed according to the laws of Ukraine of other military forming, and also law enforcement agencies of special purpose (further - the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military forming) in which positions are completed with the military personnel.
...
7. Citizens of Ukraine undergo compulsory military service according to the laws of Ukraine in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and other military forming for the purpose of receipt of military specialty, acquisition of practical skills and abilities for the armed protection of the Fatherland.

It's literally in their law...

[mr.WHO]

Yep, if someone has no military or paramedic experience or doesn't speak Ukrainian, should not volunteer (most likely will be turned down by Ukraine).
This is simply because such person would be liability - it would be much easier to train an untrained Ukrainian than having to deal with foreigner.

That's why only trained volunteers are accepted, you don't have to train them.


If someone has no military training, it would be better to become humanitarian aid volunteer in neighbour countries (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Moldova).

Poland has now the most refugees, but out of all above countries is the wealthiest one.
Currently, I think Moldova is in the biggest trouble, as they have most refugees per capita and they are the poorest, plus not part of EU.
Romania would be the easiest and most productive target for your aid (as they pass some to Moldova as well), if you're EU citizen.

[Tamina]

We currently have one empty room for a short time

Speaking about which. Do you or anyone else know any place where one can offer free rooms to refugees? Maybe a website or so.

I actually don't know if the city officials here are actively searching. Last time it was a University that asked us directly and handled all the management stuff.

The only place I saw was airbnb and that is just advertisement. Not a real option.

[Warenwolf]

Well, ya know, there's vets all around the world. I'm one of em. I'd do it in a heartbeat if I wasn't a single parent. If someone wants to help, regardless if they have military experience or not, who are either one of you to say no? You going to tell all the women in Ukraine that never had military or police experience they can't take up arms?

I'll further add, there is a process to go through, you don't just show up with a pop gun and you're in. Ukraine's defense ministry has the final say so on accepting volunteers.

Well, I expressed my agreement on Chip's view on those that have desire to travel to Ukraine as military volunteers. Maybe I should have expanded on that so it is not misunderstood.


It just boils down to of what is of actual use to Ukraine right now - I think that Ukraine has overabundance of untrained but motivated civilians far more than weapons to arm them. And unlike the volunteers without military training that come from abroad, they are far less draining on administration and know local customs, language and land (that local knowledge factor is alpha and omega).

Honestly, I would go even further than Chips and say that if you are not specialist of some sort (I am using word specialist in civilian terms (training/education and in-depth knowledge of particular field) ) you are not much of use in Ukraine even having (basic) military training/experiance.

On other hand, there are desperate need for help related to ongoing and growing humanitarian crises that has resulted from Ukrainian war.

[euclid]

If just more Russians would know what is really going on .... My Dad doesn not believe me.

Cheers Euclid

[fiksal]

The only good thing that after COVID and now this, a lot of people will start to see global supply chains as a danger.
A lot of smart people will have a chance to figure out how to replace global good with local replacements (or invent them).

Of course if one's goal to have several wars then one should really stop importing and exporting way before any attacks. The population can always live in dark ages.

[chew-ie]

If just more Russians would know what is really going on .... My Dad doesn not believe me.

Cheers Euclid

Shouldn't surprise after the whole world experienced how lost people can be as we witnessed during the [ongoing] pandemic. But still, it is shocking nevertheless - last time it were anti-vacc-querdenker & conspiracy believers, now it's people lied to by war propaganda. As a digital worker it is unbelievable for me how both people can still be lied to in this age on that scale and how they haven't enough media literacy to cross reference informations but here we are [again].

[mr.WHO]

Of course if one's goal to have several wars then one should really stop importing and exporting way before any attacks. The population can always live in dark ages.

Aren't we having the war already? and Taiwan is next on the list.
Oh and 80% of some rare minerals used in electronics come from warlords using child slave labor in mines in Kongo area.

Seem like global chains work VERY well...for authoritarian regimes.

[clakclak]

We currently have one empty room for a short time

Speaking about which. Do you or anyone else know any place where one can offer free rooms to refugees? Maybe a website or so.

I actually don't know if the city officials here are actively searching. Last time it was a University that asked us directly and handled all the management stuff.

The only place I saw was airbnb and that is just advertisement. Not a real option.

That depends on your country and/or city. If you are in Germany, get into contact with the official aid programm of your city. These are usually called [insert city]-Flüchtlingshilfe. There are also orginisations that may have chapters in your city. For Germany some of the bigger ones are: Caritas Flüchtlingshilfe, Arbeiterwohlfahrt (AWO), ProAsyl, Seebrücke and Deutsches Rotes Kreuz.

[mr.WHO]

BTW, we are today on day 15 and it seem official that Russia has stalled for last several days.

According to US/UK intel, there is no signs for any (significant) preparations in Russia to reinforce the initial force.
Seems like Russian are now focused on setting up logistical bases in North and South and changing the leaders of the "special operation".


IMO, they are preparing for last big f*ck you push in a week, before calling a day.
Probably only focus on Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mariupol (or whatever is left of it).
These 3 cities will probably be shelled to the ground (well, Mariupol already is), but at least Kyiv is 50% evacuated.


Putin will probably claim victory by saying he took the Dineper water canals (huge water supply for Crimea) and land road to Crimea (basically useless, coz they already build a bridge to Crimea - they'll probably use it as bargain chip).

As bad is it sounds, it would still be a huge military achivement for Ukraine, given that strategic disproportion would indicate Russia easily take half the country.
This will also make that remaining Ukraine territory will be even more hardcore-anti Russian (now even among local russian-speaking people).

Ukraine will lose some lands for sure, but remaing lands will gain unity like never before.

The only question is, if it will be official truce, or freezed conflict, like Korean War.