Russia-Ukraine War

[Chips]

BUT...

Listening to the oh so great liar BOJO this afternoon, muttering on about harsh sanctions, ( which it turns out are not even new ones! ) how Putin is doing evil, I couldn't help but notice a huge amount of hypocrisy in the " West. " Wasn't Iraq or Afghanistan " ( et al ) sovereign states then?

Yes, but key differences of questionable validity. Afghanistan was apparently (its all down to evidence and believability in these instances.) due to the Taliban allowing/enabling Osama to train, plan and carry out the Sept 11th attacks. Bush had demanded his arrest and extradition to the USA, which they refused, and so war was declared. Reading more of the Wiki it all becomes a real mess.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_in_Af ... 80%932021)

Whether Taliban or Osama ever had any real "alliance" or even shared viewpoint is questionable. Furthermore, I believe USA doesn't tend to extradite it's citizens, nor does Russia. So...

Iraq, on the other hand, was nothing more than desired regime change under the supposed WMD claims, which turned out to be "bad intelligence" (believe that if you wish... does anyone not believe it was fabricated?). Absolutely 100% hypocrisy of a certain flavour, but at the same time, hypocrisy doesn't mean the criticism being levied is invalid or wrong.

Should be noted though - USA wasn't trying to annex another nation. Whether people believe "installing democracy" is code for puppet Government, depends upon whether you'd believe elections would be free and fair. I mean, USA has led by example that other nations use to declare people "terrorist organisations". Other nations readily apply this tag to various factions/organisations to limit their ability to enter any political arena after all (again, make no comment on validity, just that political engagement with things is nullified for some)... but if Russia is annexing another nations sovereign territory, then...

@Aut
How do you feel about Putin claiming the Ukraine isn't really a state anyway? It was never a country, it was something created by Russia and therefore Russia can determine it's fate? I'm curious on your views to this. How does this tally with his prior claims that troops being massed in unprecedented numbers was only due to training and had no fore-planning for an invasion of a nation he has now spoken about not being a real nation?

Do you think Russia should invade and annex Ukraine because of the desire Ukraine expressed to join NATO? Therefore do you believe military DEFENCE pacts should not exist, and if so, why not? What is so negative about a defence only pact? Do countries not have a right to defend themselves and ask for help when they're not able to stand alone in the face of a much stronger adversary?

[Vertigo 7]

Doesn't USA have places with large Mexican/Italian/Chinese/Irish/West African population? GOP appreciates, if those areas are annexed to countries of origin?

As much as I wish this was a satirical take, in all likelihood the GOP would quietly welcome the annexation of certain demographical regions so they could send in military forces under the guise of retaking them back and clear out the population for white people to move in.

Not as likely as some would have you think. This is done indirectly through gentrification as a result of the greed of a real estate and business rather than genocidal hate. The GOP is not a bunch of Alt Right hatemongers we are led to believe. True, an alt right person is more likely to be in the GOP than say a democrat, but it is not a defining feature of the GOP. Now I am not a fan of the GOP so please don't make me defend them any further In fact I think that if you pay attention to the type of propaganda being spread, you will find that hate and discrimination is not exclusive to the GOP any more than it is exclusive to America and white ruled nations. Polarity politics breeds hatred and hatred is bad no matter who is hating who, it never ends in equality or fairness.

If they're not, they're not doing a good job of steering away from that perception. As recently as last week they were sending support to Nazi and Confederate flag wavers in Canada ( ). They've continually backed Putin since this whole mess started in Ukraine. Certain sitting members of congress are, to this day, spouting antisemitic conspiracy theories. Monday was President's day... who did the GOP chose to honor? Nixon and the Orange Overlord. And they couldn't help kicking off black history month by twisting Dr. King's words, as per usual.

And look, I'm not saying racism and bigotry are under the sole province of the GOP. But it certainly is synonymous with it. I grew up in the deep south. I know what these people are like, intimately.

The overarching point is this so-called "conservative", right wing, totalitarian bs is the lion's share of issues. I see little difference between the GOP, Russia, China, North Korea, Iran, et al. Democrats aren't perfect by any stretch, and I've never professed them to be as such. In fact, I'd go so far as to say there's no such thing as any political body that's perfect. But given my choices, if that means voting democrat just to keep the GOP out of power, that's what I'll do.

That being said, we're quickly approaching the point where the vote won't be enough. Putin's elections have always been a sham and the GOP is doing its damndest to emulate him. Ukraine is not going to be able to vote him away, they'll have to fight back, and yeah, if it's just Ukraine fighting they'll lose. The question becomes, is NATO going to sit back and do nothing when US, UK, and EU sanctions fail to deter Putin?

Meanwhile, should we be drawn into war with Russia, the GOP will undoubtedly rabble rouse on the Faux News and everywhere else to try to convince us that Russia ain't our problem, which is exactly what Putin wants, which they're also already doing. They'll use that as their platform to either swing elections or stage another coup attempt. Either is a very real scenario.

Compounded with China's current financial woes and their aggressions towards Taiwan, we're facing a massive shit storm on the horizon if things don't miraculously deescalate. I just don't see a good path forward at this time.

In my eyes, it's a waiting game to see who fires the first shots.

[Chips]

It'll be an easier thread if USA politics that's not related to the Ukraine/Russia situation is in a separate discussion tbh, otherwise we'll have an ever increasing number of points being raised that people are discussing, making the thread really hard to follow...

[matthewfarmery]

I think this could have gotten a whole lot worse if Trump remained in power. Yet he has on on record to say that

Trump described Putin's recognition of the breakaway regions as "genius" and "pretty savvy" in a radio interview on Tuesday.

"I went in yesterday, and there was a television screen, and I said, 'This is genius,'" Trump said. "Putin declares a big portion of the Ukraine—of Ukraine—Putin declares it as independent. Oh, that's wonderful."

Trump went on: "Here's a guy that says, you know, 'I'm gonna declare a big portion of Ukraine independent'—He used the word independent—'and we're gonna go out and we're gonna go in and we're gonna help keep peace.' You gotta say that's pretty savvy," Trump said.

Which sums up Trump in a nutshell. So the real question is, what should NATO do next? I don't see sanctions working anymore. The US is tired from its ten year war in Afghanistan and may not stomach another. I guess we would end up in another cold war situation. But right now, we can't roll over towards Russia. But at the same time, if we do strike, it won't be pretty.

@Chips
I understand what your saying but, the American situation is tied to this, and what happened in the last 4 years under another president. The fact that, that former president is complimenting Putin, like I mentioned above. isn't helping. Especailly with US politics as they are. I see your point in part, but without America, Putin will roll it's tanks down other countries throat in time. Ukraine, I doubt will be the only victim of Putin's power and hand. If America doesn't show it's support for NATO, things will get bad for the rest of the EU. America can't close it's eyes and pretend they are the only country on the planet.

[Vertigo 7]

It'll be an easier thread if USA politics that's not related to the Ukraine/Russia situation is in a separate discussion tbh, otherwise we'll have an ever increasing number of points being raised that people are discussing, making the thread really hard to follow...

It is related, sadly. GOP takes their queues from Darth Hamburder and he takes his queues from Putin. All dominoes in a global game and Russia's actions have a profound impact on the rest of the world, US included.

Thing is, the world is unstable due to COVID and political turmoil. Putin is taking advantage of that, banking that no one will do anything meaningful to stop him. What happens here will be a key influence into what happens there.

My hope is that NATO moves to defend Ukraine and call Putin's bluff. I highly highly doubt he has the stomach to drag Russia into a shooting war with Europe and the US.

[matthewfarmery]

And lets not forget that, a certain former president showed that he had zero respect for NATO, and wanted to leave it. And on top of that, probably will do just that if he came back into power again.

So again, US politics sadly does have a huge bearing on what is happening. So the real question is, what should be NATO's response be? and will America stand by NATO in it's hour of need? or will Americans who are tired of war turn their backs on NATO? valid questions.

[mr.WHO]

Aparently Russia is withdrawing diplomatic personel from Ukraine.

[EGO_Aut]

BUT...

Listening to the oh so great liar BOJO this afternoon, muttering on about harsh sanctions, ( which it turns out are not even new ones! ) how Putin is doing evil, I couldn't help but notice a huge amount of hypocrisy in the " West. " Wasn't Iraq or Afghanistan " ( et al ) sovereign states then?

Yes, but .......

@Aut
How do you feel about Putin claiming the Ukraine isn't really a state anyway? It was never a country, it was something created by Russia and therefore Russia can determine it's fate? I'm curious on your views to this. How does this tally with his prior claims that troops being massed in unprecedented numbers was only due to training and had no fore-planning for an invasion of a nation he has now spoken about not being a real nation?

Do you think Russia should invade and annex Ukraine because of the desire Ukraine expressed to join NATO? Therefore do you believe military DEFENCE pacts should not exist, and if so, why not? What is so negative about a defence only pact? Do countries not have a right to defend themselves and ask for help when they're not able to stand alone in the face of a much stronger adversary?

I think Putin is lying to himself a bit, Ukraine has long been a dependent/controlled state by Russia.
The loss of control caused by MAIDAN and the anti-Russia attitude of the "pure" Ukrainians, and last but not least the possible loss of Crimea as a naval port, forced Russia to act.
There were voices in NATO that Ukraine would not join as quickly as it would have taken if the pressure from the US had increased, I think it would have happened quickly.

I think the build-up of troops on the border was primarily intended to put pressure on the West/Ukraine and, secondarily, to invade the rebel areas to create a buffer zone if no compromises are reached.
200,000 men are not enough to conquer Ukraine, or even half. Especially not in the long term, without support from the population (see Afghanistan/Iraq)
I also believe that the current situation could have been avoided if there had been concessions regarding NATO/Ukraine. For example, no NATO troops/weapons on the territory of Ukraine.

Defense pacts are a very useful invention, but unfortunately they can also be misused (see Turkey/Syria or rather Libya).-Or even Belarus.
It has often disappointed me that NATO waged wars of aggression without a UN mandate, and that it was rhetorically played down.
These defense pacts should not converge too much (not an inch to the east), or constantly provoke each other (Cuba/Turkey - nuclear missile crisis) - the risk of someone pressing the red button is too great in my opinion.

In a relationship, I can't always determine what they should think or what they should do. Otherwise, my wife and children would turn away from me, and I would stand alone.
Willingness to compromise is very important for good relationships, even if it means giving in.

[Olterin]

[...]
My hope is that NATO moves to defend Ukraine and call Putin's bluff. I highly highly doubt he has the stomach to drag Russia into a shooting war with Europe and the US.

I know this next bit is going to sound controversial to say the least: I do not think it is wise to have NATO start a shooting war with Russia no matter what. And yes, this is exactly what Putin is banking on, but from all indications he's a madman who'd actually push the Big Red Button™ if push came to shove, so... Would you be willing to take the chance that maybe he isn't a madman? Because the alternative is a big glass desert in the northern hemisphere.

Now, providing assistance that doesn't involve direct military personnel confrontation, that sounds a whole lot more plausible... but it's going to come a bit late to the party at this point.

[fiksal]

[...]
My hope is that NATO moves to defend Ukraine and call Putin's bluff. I highly highly doubt he has the stomach to drag Russia into a shooting war with Europe and the US.

I know this next bit is going to sound controversial to say the least: I do not think it is wise to have NATO start a shooting war with Russia no matter what. And yes, this is exactly what Putin is banking on, but from all indications he's a madman who'd actually push the Big Red Button™ if push came to shove, so... Would you be willing to take the chance that maybe he isn't a madman? Because the alternative is a big glass desert in the northern hemisphere.

Now, providing assistance that doesn't involve direct military personnel confrontation, that sounds a whole lot more plausible... but it's going to come a bit late to the party at this point.

He won't stop at Ukraine you know

[matthewfarmery]

[...]
My hope is that NATO moves to defend Ukraine and call Putin's bluff. I highly highly doubt he has the stomach to drag Russia into a shooting war with Europe and the US.

I know this next bit is going to sound controversial to say the least: I do not think it is wise to have NATO start a shooting war with Russia no matter what. And yes, this is exactly what Putin is banking on, but from all indications he's a madman who'd actually push the Big Red Button™ if push came to shove, so... Would you be willing to take the chance that maybe he isn't a madman? Because the alternative is a big glass desert in the northern hemisphere.

Now, providing assistance that doesn't involve direct military personnel confrontation, that sounds a whole lot more plausible... but it's going to come a bit late to the party at this point.

He won't stop at Ukraine you know

That is the thing, he won't stop there. We compare this to Hitler, I think if Great Britain and France hadn't responded by declaring war on Germany, I think Hitler wouldn't have stopped after Poland? I think if there was no WW2, Germany would have continued to push west.

And now we have a similar situation with Putin, the only problem is, many countries have nuclear weapons and might invoke using them. But the principle is the same. The other big problem with Russia, it holds the keys to a huge gas reserve that the rest of the EU needs. So Russia could very well withhold that gas, and that could very well plunge half of the EU in darkness. So in that respect, Putin has power, and not much is been done to make Putin realise that enough is enough. I think it's because he has this much power, that no one is really challenging him.

But yeah, he won't stop at Ukraine, he just testing the waters and seeing how we react. But once he realises that we will let him, he will do it again and again.

[Vertigo 7]

[...]
My hope is that NATO moves to defend Ukraine and call Putin's bluff. I highly highly doubt he has the stomach to drag Russia into a shooting war with Europe and the US.

I know this next bit is going to sound controversial to say the least: I do not think it is wise to have NATO start a shooting war with Russia no matter what. And yes, this is exactly what Putin is banking on, but from all indications he's a madman who'd actually push the Big Red Button™ if push came to shove, so... Would you be willing to take the chance that maybe he isn't a madman? Because the alternative is a big glass desert in the northern hemisphere.

Now, providing assistance that doesn't involve direct military personnel confrontation, that sounds a whole lot more plausible... but it's going to come a bit late to the party at this point.

Fear of the "big red button" can't be a reason to not intervein. If NATO capitulates because of that, then what's the point? All he'll have to do going forward is take a selfie with his finger over the button and say "gimme!" Sides, he ain't the only one with a "big red button" either. He pulls that trigger, the rest of the world will end his country.

[fiksal]

He won't stop at Ukraine you know

That is the thing, he won't stop there. We compare this to Hitler, I think if Great Britain and France hadn't responded by declaring war on Germany, I think Hitler wouldn't have stopped after Poland? I think if there was no WW2, Germany would have continued to push west.

And now we have a similar situation with Putin, the only problem is, many countries have nuclear weapons and might invoke using them. But the principle is the same. The other big problem with Russia, it holds the keys to a huge gas reserve that the rest of the EU needs. So Russia could very well withhold that gas, and that could very well plunge half of the EU in darkness. So in that respect, Putin has power, and not much is been done to make Putin realise that enough is enough. I think it's because he has this much power, that no one is really challenging him.

But yeah, he won't stop at Ukraine, he just testing the waters and seeing how we react. But once he realises that we will let him, he will do it again and again.

As I typed this response, I question myself - why did I even phrase it like that.

What's wrong with helping a country to not be invaded and enslaved by another? We've seen questionable reason and questionable wars - that one seems pretty black and white to me.


As for "what's next", I'd put red lines over all former USSR republics at least. Putin likes to mention that falling of USSR is a greatest tragedy and injustice (caused by west/EU/NATO/north america no doubt), you can imagine what that means.

[Chips]

Thing is, the world is unstable due to COVID and political turmoil. Putin is taking advantage of that, banking that no one will do anything meaningful to stop him. What happens here will be a key influence into what happens there.

My hope is that NATO moves to defend Ukraine and call Putin's bluff. I highly highly doubt he has the stomach to drag Russia into a shooting war with Europe and the US.

I'm not sure this is Putin exploiting covid/political turmoil in the present. It may be part of it, but I believe that'd just be coincidence.

I think this has long been in the planning, but I can't help but think the near 1-2 year long reports of Russia intentionally supplying less gas to push prices up link into a longer strategy -- something that can hit Europeans.

For example, I can't now find which article on BBC news showed it, but they revealed Russia's increase in Gold reserves since 2014 -- and reasons that's not because of sanctions applied the (too late), but to prepare for sanctions being applied in the future. As in now. Those gold reserve increases can help prop up the rouble or some other finance voodoo (as you can tell, my knowledge would rely entirely upon the article but I can't find it). Likewise, 40% of it's foreign currency was in dollars, but it is now just 13% I think - so they've diversified away from US currency and into more friendly nations currencies instead.

Now it may be a trend many countries have also undertaken, perhaps it's not just Russia and reporting this sensationalises it rather than puts it into a frame of reference with the rest of the world's nations.

But it could just show a significant lead time preparation to buffer economy against further sanctions that he knows would be implied via invading Ukraine. While politically Europe may have the will to endure hardships in retaliatory measures by Russia, Putin is framing this to his population as nationalist sentiment to bring about that ability to endure hardships that western sanctions will bring to them. As I posted many pages ago, they'll accept them because they see themselves as defending Russians (basically) and homeland. While it was shocking to hear him say Ukraine isn't a nation really, it's not surprising to hear him repeatedly say it's actually Russian land. It means the troops fighting/dying and any hardships from sanctions are in retaliation for protecting homeland. That's going to go a hell of a lot further (if people believe it) than "we're marching into Spain yay!" whereby I imagine Russian people would likely NOT endure many hardships arising from that action. As long as the public support him as they think it's protecting the motherland... (or reclaiming it).

On the flip side, I think you'd be hard pressed to find many Europeans who'd not castigate Putin's actions, but once they have to start enduring hardships (if our energy bills double again), then they may start to care a lot less about the Ukraine/Russia and more about the disposable income and wallet.

[Vertigo 7]

snip

I hope people wouldn't be that short sighted. Europe and the US both went into heavy conservations during WW2 and largely sucked it up because it was necessary. Not saying folks need to be happy about having to pay more out of pocket but can at least understand why it's happening.

I have no doubt that Putin had been planning this for a long time. Russia wasn't happy in the 90's when Ukraine held a referendum to become their own nation - that passed with 90%+ majority, btw. Crimea was just the beginning for Putin. I just think the current state of the world presented him with an opportunity to make a move he thinks he can get away with.

[fiksal]

I went ahead and caught up on Putin's speech

"Fact-checking Putin’s speech on Ukraine"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... h-ukraine/

[Observe]

Pages in the history of humanity are covered with the pot calling the kettle black and pedestrian usage of the pseudo rational of what's good for the goose is good for the gander. Stark hypocrisy is on full display by pretty much all nations.

Let's condemn Russia, but make sure we do so without any sense of moral superiority. We don't have a right to pretend that we are riding a white horse on the high road, without taking a deep look at our own dark tendencies.

Some say, that the world used to be much more violent in the past, with wars constantly all over the place and that with a few exceptions, the post WW2 landscape has been largely one of peaceful coexistence. These days, more people die from obesity than from starvation and more people die from suicide than are killed in war, etc.

By some accounts, the prospects for worldwide peace look hopeful and that we are developing mechanisms of tolerance and are learning how to cooperate with each other based on common goals and agreed upon codes of conduct.

I don't see it that way. To me, there is little evidence of people or nations becoming more well behaved or less violent. There are other battlefields than those strewn with fire, smoke and blood from the use of missiles and tanks.

The pandemic has shown us that people are quick to leap at each others throats when there is disagreement about the best course of action. Hatred towards those who are not vaccinated, or are vaccinated, or wear a mask or don't. Liberal leaders once praised for their philosophies of compassion and empathy, have shown themselves to be intolerant hypocrites at war with their own people.

What will be the "reason" for future wars? Probably it will be less over lands and borders and more over the haves and have nots of technology and big data affecting economic disruption. If we have been living in a period of relative peace, perhaps it is only because we have found so many new ways to fight each other.

Sorry for the ramble. What a terrible thing is going on in Ukraine. So incredibly sad.

[fiksal]

Let's condemn Russia, but make sure we do so without any sense of moral superiority. We don't have a right to pretend that we are riding a white horse on the high road, without taking a deep look at our own dark tendencies.
...
Sorry for the ramble. What a terrible thing is going on in Ukraine. So incredibly sad.

It's exactly right, the point would be to stop where such situation arise.

But. I am personally extremely skeptical of "but the other side" conversation starters. Not your post of course. As I posted a few pages ago, to me that reads is - "I am actually okay with one side committing atrocities, but not ok with another side doing the similar thing, so lets talk about nothing"


It is sad, and I am angry "my people" are the cause of this... I should really stop refer to them as "my people" though, I dont hold their "values".

[exogenesis]

I'm not sure this is Putin exploiting covid/political turmoil in the present. It may be part of it, but I believe that'd just be coincidence.

I think this has long been in the planning, but I can't help but think the near 1-2 year long reports of Russia intentionally supplying less gas to push prices up link into a longer strategy -- something that can hit Europeans.

For example, I can't now find which article on BBC news showed it, but they revealed Russia's increase in Gold reserves since 2014 -- and reasons that's not because of sanctions applied the (too late), but to prepare for sanctions being applied in the future. As in now. Those gold reserve increases can help prop up the rouble or some other finance voodoo (as you can tell, my knowledge would rely entirely upon the article but I can't find it). Likewise, 40% of it's foreign currency was in dollars, but it is now just 13% I think - so they've diversified away from US currency and into more friendly nations currencies instead.
...

The article you wanted is :
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60480904

Does seem like making Russian economy 'money' more stable (less West, more China dependent)
has been his long-term goal.

But can't see how Vlad The Invader can think that's going to really help him with the situation he's now creating
- even $630 billion in reserves is going to run down pretty quick,
in a (nearly)all-against-one conflict with full-on sanctions situation.

Also what's likely if he actually does 'cut of the gas' to Europe
is an even greater hardening of resolve to stop him, at least I would hope...

[Falcrack]

The opening salvo which will eventually herald the start of WWIII begins February 23rd, 2022.