Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

And to be honest - that guy does not strike me as one who is that much prepared (notice when he called for general mobilization - bit late....)

Yes, he does seem to be a bit over his head, but who wouldn't be in this situation? I have the impression that the Ukraine government didn't take the Russian threat seriously and got caught unprepared. But then I know mostly nothing about the actual situation.

Poland did not called the mobilization in 1939, because UK and France adviced not to provoke Germany.
I bet it was the same here and US probably only gave a confirmation warning to Ukraine a few hours ahead - remember that the very first report that attack is sure to start was on like 16th February.

[Cpt.Jericho]

And to be honest - that guy does not strike me as one who is that much prepared (notice when he called for general mobilization - bit late....)

Mobilising before an invasion would have been an invitation to invade. Russia would have used that as an act of aggression not even CNN could have argued with. Don't consider Zelenskyy stupid just because you think he acted too late. He had the choice between being the victim of aggression or being the aggressor (from our Western point of view). Basically he was in a lose-lose situation.

[Observe]

Mobilising before an invasion would have been an invitation to invade.

I don't get that logic, but then I'm not exactly a military strategist. Not saying you are wrong.

[Warenwolf]

Poland did not called the mobilization in 1939, because UK and France adviced not to provoke Germany.
I bet it was the same here and US probably only gave a confirmation warning to Ukraine a few hours ahead - remember that the very first report that attack is sure to start was on like 16th February.

Yeah, but these guys were at war last 8 years. 200 000 soldiers are placed at your borders. That same nation that has put soldiers on your border has ALSO taken land from you before.
Every western leader is telling you "every day now".

I really wish the guy the best but he is no battlefield commander.

Mobilising before an invasion would have been an invitation to invade. Russia would have used that as an act of aggression not even CNN could have argued with. Don't consider Zelenskyy stupid just because you think he acted too late. He had the choice between being the victim of aggression or being the aggressor (from our Western point of view). Basically he was in a lose-lose situation.

Which happened anyway - I can understand him not doing anything early in january but as time went? He could just have said that he is acting upon advice from the west. Ukrainians would have much more options if they had 100 000 men extra ready 24 hours earlier.

[Cpt.Jericho]

Mobilising before an invasion would have been an invitation to invade.

I don't get that logic, but then I'm not exactly a military strategist. Not saying you are wrong.

Russia has been reporting aggression against the renegade provinces for month - true or not isn't relevant. If Ukraine suddenly mobilises all it's reservists and men between 18-60 with two arms and two legs will be seen as a preparation for a large scale campaign.

Or as a 1980s B-movie director would have done: The villain would load his weapon while a seemingly unarmed cop comes to negotiate. That cop of course (in 1980s B-movie narrative) is armed to the teeth and never intents to solve the situation peacefully.

Mobilising before an invasion would have been an invitation to invade. Russia would have used that as an act of aggression not even CNN could have argued with. Don't consider Zelenskyy stupid just because you think he acted too late. He had the choice between being the victim of aggression or being the aggressor (from our Western point of view). Basically he was in a lose-lose situation.

Which happened anyway - I can understand him not doing anything early in january but as time went? He could just have said that he is acting upon advice from the west. Ukrainians would have much more options if they had 100 000 men extra ready 24 hours earlier.

You're basically correct. But the situation in Ukraine was more like a game of Chicken. First one itching looses.

[mr.WHO]

I really wish the guy the best but he is no battlefield commander.

He don't have to - that's what generals are for.
As useless as politicians are, he's actually doing a good job as a leader.
The only question is, if they have designated-survivor procedure and clear sucession chain in case he die or get captured.

[Warenwolf]

I really wish the guy the best but he is no battlefield commander.

He don't have to - that's what generals are for.
As useless as politicians are, he's actually doing a good job as a leader.
The only question is, if they have designated-survivor procedure and clear sucession chain in case he die or get captured.

Well, I disagree. But that is neither here or there. We at least agree regarding the main issue - has he plan B if Kiev falls.

[jlehtone]

He could just have said that he is acting upon advice from the west.

Putin's narrative has been that the west is building a threat to motherland in "that nazi base that should belong to us".
How would "the west called us to arms" be interpreted? As strong confirmation bias?

[Warenwolf]

He could just have said that he is acting upon advice from the west.

Putin's narrative has been that the west is building a threat to motherland in "that nazi base that should belong to us".
How would "the west called us to arms" be interpreted? As strong confirmation bias?

That is very western perspective on the problem. Who cares? Putin knows the truth but that is totally irrelevant for ham. You cannot beat authoritarian regimes in propaganda campaigns aimed towards their own population when the same regimes have total control over media.

[Cpt.Jericho]

That is very western perspective on problem. Who cares? Putin knows the truth but that is totally irrelevant for ham. You cannot beat authoritarian regimes in propaganda campaigns aimed towards their own population when the same regimes have total control over media.

That is probably one of the truest things that can be said about any sort of conflict.

[Sovereign01]

Without cynicism or disparagement of the events of the last days, months, years...

Selenskyj is disappointed in Europe, NATO and the USA? The better way would have been to declare neutrality, seek EU membership and seek UN troops after Crimea's annexation.

Anyone who relies on NATO has reckoned without the USA's ambitions. Viewed soberly, everyone made big promises, outplayed Ukraine and now dropped them. Human suffering has no weight in this game.

The (chaotic) US withdrawal from Afghanistan has shown everyone that US interests are the only ones pursued by the US.

Next conflict.. Taiwan will be taken back by China and the world will look on in disgust.

China aren't dumb, and they know they have far more to lose in regards to invading Taiwan than what Russia is doing now. As much as Chinese leadership likes to be jingoistic about reunifying China, they have strong economic cost to consider. Far more than what Russia have.

Russia's economy is not that closely tied to other major world economies even if they are supplying gas to Europe. Russia barely export anything else.

China on the other hand exports nearly everything else to the world. Invading Taiwan will hurt them economically on a far more excessive level than what Russia is doing. Russian oligarchs are far less beholden to the economic well-being of their citizens than the CCP.

Russian leadership derive its appeal from political rhetoric like retaking the "lost" Soviet states. Chinese leadership derive their appeal from the economic well-being of the average citizen.

Maintaining the status quo is what China is happy with, even if there is the occasion hawkish rhetoric about how they have to reunify it in the future. China is not Russia, despite what American news is telling people.

They might both be rivals of the West, but the two countries are very different in both its domestic outlook and economic structures. China is an incredibly economically tied region that can't afford a war the same way Russia can.

Russia have enough gas to export it to Europe. China's economy grind to a halt if war with Taiwan breaks out and all of its fuel imports get cut off.

Only stupid and ill-informed Westerners would think China is thinking of copying Russia in the exact same way. Taiwan is not Ukraine.

[Cpt.Jericho]

I'm not sure China would suffer as much from sanctions. A lot of the exports include components you're looking at right now. Your phone is manufactured in China with components made in China. For quite a while that country has been the workbench of Western tech-companies. Even if Apple et al could start producing their products on NATO soil it would mean that people had to pay the real prices for them. I doubt people would be able to afford them then; meaning the investors and/or stockholders would be very happy.

[Falcrack]

Only stupid and ill-informed Westerners would think China is thinking of copying Russia in the exact same way. Taiwan is not Ukraine.

This stupid and ill informed Westerner thinks that China invading Taiwan in the coming years is a near certainty, economic costs be damned, and that if we do not take steps to ensure Taiwan's security now, we will be fighting a major war later.

[Falcrack]

The quote which will define the Russian-Ukrainian war:

"Russian warship, go f*** yourselves"

[Sovereign01]

Only stupid and ill-informed Westerners would think China is thinking of copying Russia in the exact same way. Taiwan is not Ukraine.

This stupid and ill informed Westerner thinks that China invading Taiwan in the coming years is a near certainty, economic costs be damned, and that if we do not take steps to ensure Taiwan's security now, we will be fighting a major war later.

The buildup would be months long and obvious. They would need to launch an amphibious assault the size of Overlord and there is no hiding that in the 21st century. Also the Taiwanese can fight and will have at least American backing. Possibly Japan, Korea and Australia too. That would be WWIII.

[Falcrack]

Only stupid and ill-informed Westerners would think China is thinking of copying Russia in the exact same way. Taiwan is not Ukraine.

This stupid and ill informed Westerner thinks that China invading Taiwan in the coming years is a near certainty, economic costs be damned, and that if we do not take steps to ensure Taiwan's security now, we will be fighting a major war later.

The buildup would be months long and obvious. They would need to launch an amphibious assault the size of Overlord and there is no hiding that in the 21st century. Also the Taiwanese can fight and will have at least American backing. Possibly Japan, Korea and Australia too. That would be WWIII.

Their military buildup for the last two decades has been directed at one thing, which is an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. They are planning for it, and someday Pooh Bear is going to think they are prepared enough to pull it off.

[fiksal]

The quote which will define the Russian-Ukrainian war:

"Russian warship, go f*** yourselves"

It is to remember if authentic

[Observe]

I see the vicious fighting going on in Kyiv and elsewhere. How motivated can those Russian soldiers be, killing their neighbors, many of whom are also Russians in essence? Seems to me that many of them (Russian soldiers) must be pretty demoralized over the whole situation.

[fiksal]

for those that understand Russian, something interesting to watch.
a long opinion piece from 23rd. Would be curious to see the one from later date

Невзоровские среды на радио «Эхо Москвы» 23.02.2022 Украина, Донбасс, война.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UTRLvYoE6c

I see the vicious fighting going on in Kyiv and elsewhere. How motivated can those Russian soldiers be, killing their neighbors, many of whom are also Russians in essence? Seems to me that many of them (Russian soldiers) must be pretty demoralized over the whole situation.

If it's possible, motivation needs some time to die down. The longer Ukrainians hold the more chances for that. As interesting question as it might be, I am not sure I believe in any thinking processes inside of their heads.
I could be wrong.

[Observe]

Well Ukraine has the home court advantage and that's always significant. If Russian soldiers lack sufficient ideological passion, that will also factor into how hard they are willing to fight. As you say, the Ukrainian position becomes stronger as time wears on. Whether strong enough remains to be seen.