Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Mad lads are doing it
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/statu ... 7212874756

[Chips]

Hate to dial back a few pages, been away you see...

Everything was fine until UK, USA and EU toppled the leggaly elected government in 2014, put puppet dictatorship of the neonazis-russian haters of West Ukraine.

Any source on it being the west toppling the elected Government? AFAIK it was people rising up as Ukraine Govt suddenly changed direction massively...

The rest is pretty simple. As USA doesn't want Russian nukes in Cuba, so Russia doesn't want American nukes in Ukraine. And with the request to join NATO on the 22nd Feb (2 days ago) by Ukraine, that was a red line crossed. The rest is history.

Tis a point, I mean as someone in Europe I'd say "Europe lived under this for decades, US/Russia a bunch of snowflakes" as I have previously... but taking in many sources, been watching this video in sections.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

I've yet to watch the entire video, busy life.

FYI Except Kiev, on the rest east 45% country, the Russians just walked over in just 11 hours today and received as liberators. Is the reason Ukraine relied heavily on the neoNazi recruits with units and emblems similar to the SS over the last 8 years, instead of normal troops. The majority are Russians, they would never fought their own kind.

Erm, what's your source on this? Likewise, the rest east 45% of country, can you be a little more specific. Either it's 45% of the country, or 45% of the East side of the country? I'm unsure what you're referring too and certainly not convinced, even without being sure, of the validity of the statement.

I've seen videos and lots of people being happy about destroyed tanks/trucks etc of Russia. While I'm glad Ukraine is defending themselves, and hopeful they receive more help from the western countries, and I REALLY hope Ukraine prevails in this - but people are dying on both sides... and even if the aggressor's troops are dying there's nothing "good" about it. People don't sign up to the army with the intent to die, let alone the intent to die in a foreign country...

[Sovereign01]

This stupid and ill informed Westerner thinks that China invading Taiwan in the coming years is a near certainty, economic costs be damned, and that if we do not take steps to ensure Taiwan's security now, we will be fighting a major war later.

The buildup would be months long and obvious. They would need to launch an amphibious assault the size of Overlord and there is no hiding that in the 21st century. Also the Taiwanese can fight and will have at least American backing. Possibly Japan, Korea and Australia too. That would be WWIII.

Their military buildup for the last two decades has been directed at one thing, which is an amphibious invasion of Taiwan. They are planning for it, and someday Pooh Bear is going to think they are prepared enough to pull it off.

They would have to take out the Seventh fleet to do it. Good luck holding the USA back if that ever happens.

[mr.WHO]

They would have to take out the Seventh fleet to do it. Good luck holding the USA back if that ever happens.

Before Ukraine I was very gloom about it, but now seeing that world reacted in just under 4 days, I think Taiwan is safe.
Taiwan is much more high-tech than Ukraine and was preparing to repel the invasion for 50+ years.

There is no way China can do an amphibious invasion and beacheads in 4 days.
Coz after that St. Javelins and Harpoon fairy will keep flowing.
Everyone, their grandmother, Anonymous and Elon F***ing Musk will put their mind to it.

Taiwan is a Democracy - the world will not stand it to suffer...
...also 70% of world chip production, so imagine hunderds of millions of people really angry they can't get their new iPhones, Laptops and GPUs.

[Chips]

yes, well, it could also mean he's ready to nuke Ukraine.

Why do people assume Putin is threatening to nuke anything? He's previously said anyone intervening will see the ... blah blah of such no-one has ever seen. I didn't take that to mean he'd actually nuke, I took that to mean "STAY OUT OF IT OR ELSE"... but maybe he is nuts. In other words, rhetoric. Without actually directly confronting Russia, what would he tell his people?

I've taken his latest upping of the ante to mean "You're starting to interfere too much", which in all honestly also means things are going to hell in a hand basket for Russia. That's not a bad thing, as it is going to be a balancing act on how much support western countries give, and how Putin views it all.

I don't think it means nukes, I think it's just rhetoric to try and get people to back off or not supply even more.

I can't believe (maybe I'm naïve) that any armed forces would 1st strike nuke against any target, let alone one that isn't nuclear itself; that includes Russian military let by Putin. Surely they'd go "wait, this is nuts..." and ignore the bellend. Nukes have for a long time been mutual assured destruction, not first strike tantrum over a conventional war that no-one in the entire world is supporting.

[Vertigo 7]

yes, well, it could also mean he's ready to nuke Ukraine.

Why do people assume Putin is threatening to nuke anything? He's previously said anyone intervening will see the ... blah blah of such no-one has ever seen. I didn't take that to mean he'd actually nuke, I took that to mean "STAY OUT OF IT OR ELSE"... but maybe he is nuts. In other words, rhetoric. Without actually directly confronting Russia, what would he tell his people?

I've taken his latest upping of the ante to mean "You're starting to interfere too much", which in all honestly also means things are going to hell in a hand basket for Russia. That's not a bad thing, as it is going to be a balancing act on how much support western countries give, and how Putin views it all.

I don't think it means nukes, I think it's just rhetoric to try and get people to back off or not supply even more.

I can't believe (maybe I'm naïve) that any armed forces would 1st strike nuke against any target, let alone one that isn't nuclear itself; that includes Russian military let by Putin. Surely they'd go "wait, this is nuts..." and ignore the bellend. Nukes have for a long time been mutual assured destruction, not first strike tantrum over a conventional war that no-one in the entire world is supporting.

It's simple. Putin is a proven liar. I wouldn't put anything past him. Not to mention, all signs point to him be a friggin basket case with his obsession over the fallen USSR. It's honestly safer to assume he will and be wrong than to convince yourself he won't and be wrong.

He's willing to throw the lives of his people away in the thousands over a lie. If he thinks he can nuke Ukraine and doesn't fear repercussions or thinks no one will respond, he'll do it.

*edit

FYI - EURCOM moved to DEFCON 2 today.

[mr.WHO]

That US anti-missile base in Poland suddenly become best investment ever.
Like we had to put 1-2 bil $ to co-op with US in building it.
I think US also moved several Patriot batteries to Poland this week.

This won't help Ukraine, but aggresor nuclear super power, nuking non-nuclear country will make Putin and Russia a pariah, literally below North Korea.
If he do it I can imagine Kim Jong Un screaming " Are you r*tarded?! "

I really think it's way more likely Russians will put him down like a dog rather than allow nuking Ukraine.
If there would ever be a nuclear mushroom in place of Kiev, I'd expect all Russian armies doing 180 and storming Moscow.

There are some levels of stupidity that even Russians won't stand.

[Sovereign01]

Russia has placed its nuclear forces on high alert, in yet another threat aimed as western powers.

It's nuclear dick-waving at its most basic, nobody is going to be impressed or surprised by that.

[Observe]

I wonder if Putin has suspicion that Ukraine still has a nuke or two tucked away somewhere?

[Vertigo 7]

Oh, no doubt. Putin is trying to flex and be the big bad strong man he wants to be perceived as. But he's also getting his ass handed to him and it's making him look weak.

There's not a doubt in my mind that the troops in command of his nuclear arsenal are the most loyal to Putin, likely even handpicked by him. I would not bank on them refusing to fire if he gives the order. Likewise, I'm sure it'll lead to a mass revolt if he does. However, once that trigger is pulled, short of shooting the missiles down, there's nothing that can be done to un-pull that trigger.

And I do sincerely hope he doesn't go that route. But I also hope people prepare as much as they can in case he does.

[Warenwolf]

That US anti-missile base in Poland suddenly become best investment ever.
Like we had to put 1-2 bil $ to co-op with US in building it.
I think US also moved several Patriot batteries to Poland this week.

As far as I know, Aegis BMD in Poland is not yet active - no idea if the one in Romania is. But not to rain on your parade current technology of BMDs is ... meh?
Really depends on what is coming your way (avoidance package, MIRV deployed or not and pure number of missile vehicles incoming your way). It is good for countries to your west though - missile would be in pre-entry phase.

[mr.WHO]

I read very interesting analysis about Ukraine-Russia performance:

Russia is basically doing 1980s Soviet style tank and artillery rush fixated on taking territory and cities.
Ukraine is doing XXI century mobile warfare focused on hit & run tactics and preserving their forces alive and fighting rather than holding a territory.

There was already multiple operations, where Ukrainians baited Russians to take an objective/location and the bombing the shit out of them.
That's why we hear multiple locations switching hands back and forth.

I think the fight won't be over even if Kyiv fall, possibly even fall and be retaken several times.

This will be a hell for Russians that even Afghanistan will look like a cakewalk.

[Sovereign01]

I read very interesting analysis about Ukraine-Russia performance:

Russia is basically doing 1980s Soviet style tank and artillery rush fixated on taking territory and cities.
Ukraine is doing XXI century mobile warfare focused on hit & run tactics and preserving their forces alive and fighting rather than holding a territory.

There was already multiple operations, where Ukrainians baited Russians to take an objective/location and the bombing the shit out of them.
That's why we hear multiple locations switching hands back and forth.

I think the fight won't be over even if Kyiv fall, possibly even fall and be retaken several times.

This will be a hell for Russians that even Afghanistan will look like a cakewalk.

It's why I imagine the Ukrainian commanders giving this speech to their units.

[Warenwolf]

Oh, no doubt. Putin is trying to flex and be the big bad strong man he wants to be perceived as. But he's also getting his ass handed to him and it's making him look weak.

There's not a doubt in my mind that the troops in command of his nuclear arsenal are the most loyal to Putin, likely even handpicked by him.

Well, I agree with you but then again you have guys like Dzhokhar Dudayev. Handpicked to lead nuclear-armed strategic bombers in Estonia (In Soviet Union you did not get close to nuclear weapons without squeaky clean ideological record) - also no coincidence, as Chechen he was put in control of unit outside his cultural sphere among Estonians.
When told to put down Estonian TV and parliament in 1991, when Estonians were becoming too much freedom loving and independently minded for Moscow's tastes, he simply ignored the orders.
Later on he was assassinated by Russians as he was making trouble for them in Chechnya.

Stanislav Petrov on other hand, ignored the standing orders as dictated by Soviet military protocol and did not retaliatory nuclear attack on the United States when his early warning system told him that nuclear strike was incoming. Soviet back then had launch-on-detection policy, that is to say that they would initiate strike immediately when enemy missile launch was detected (lets say plume from rocket engines by IR sensor on a satellite). Today he is known as "man who saved the world"

Both of these men were handpicked by KGB and vetted through and through. Can Putin count on such loyalty? I am not so sure- Soviet was party dictatorship while Putin is your average autocrat - I worked in management and have many times displeasure to work for owners who are like him. Extremely intelligent narcissists. Sometimes I would venture even sociopaths due to hard life they had to go through. These guys make everyone around them scared - but when they show even tiny weakness, their surroundings leave them to their fate.
That same life experience is also telling me that after Putin - Putin 2.0 awaits. I doubt there are some democratically minded fellows biding their time in Kremlin.

[mr.WHO]

BBC reports:
"The EU has agreed unanimously amongst all member countries to take in Ukrainian refugees for up to three years without asking them to first apply for asylum, the German interior minister says."

SWIFT anctions.
Weapon dealivery.
Closing Airspace.

When you do something so stupid, that in just a few days even EU unanimously agree to do several things that were previously impossible.

I guess WW2 PTSD is still a thing even in Western Europe.

Color me impressed.

[Vertigo 7]

I don't think it's PTSD. I think everyone knows Russia is not to be trusted, that is, unless you are one of those jack-ass orange people or worship them. Putin crossed a line that not only threatens Ukraine, but everyone else.

Think about it for a minute. Putin said in the beginning he wanted a buffer zone to defend Russia against NATO. So, say he takes Ukraine. Where does the buffer zone go? Poland, Romania, Slovakia? What lame ass excuse will he use to invade there?

He started an unprovoked war, hoping the western powers would be too busy dealing with their own problems to not care. He was wrong.

[Vertigo 7]

Oh snap. EU is giving fighter jets to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1498029493033881601

[Warenwolf]

I read very interesting analysis about Ukraine-Russia performance:

Let me save you lot of time reading so-called analysis on the net from various has beens (military experts who never were given command) or your average reddit Dunning-Kruger effect suffering keyboard warrior.

You got nation of 40 million.
It is 2/3 size of entire West Europe.
The people in that nation hate your guts.

And you, being Putin, send in 200 000 men to:
1) Win a war (sure, very possible)
2) Hold the above mentioned country and prevent insurgency (yeah...not gonna happen).

Well, that is not a strategy but hubris and arrogance. There...I saved you truckload of reading.

[mr.WHO]

Either a very big ammo dump got hit...or we are already into tactical nukes:
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1498043750597210113


Edit: link broken, but aparently it was a very big ammo dump with lots of various chemicals.

[Axeface]

The one biggest takeaway for me from all this is the apparent ineptitude of the russian military. They have garnered a lot of respect for decades and were considered good, if the reports are to be believed (and god knows if they are), then they are terrible. You dont lose so many troops and vehicles in a few days in modern warfare.

I read very interesting analysis about Ukraine-Russia performance:

Let me save you lot of time reading so-called analysis on the net from various has beens (military experts who never were given command) or your average reddit Dunning-Kruger effect suffering keyboard warrior.

You got nation of 40 million.
It is 2/3 size of entire West Europe.
The people in that nation hate your guts.

And you, being Putin, send in 200 000 men to:
1) Win a war (sure, very possible)
2) Hold the above mentioned country and prevent insurgency (yeah...not gonna happen).

Well, that is not a strategy but hubris and arrogance. There...I saved you truckload of reading.

Are you implying that 200,000 is a low number?
It is a MASSIVE number, more than the allies sent to normandy on d day... a target where outside of defending forces, would be welcomed and fed by locals.
200,000 is a lot of troops. Anything more would be unwieldy and an absolute nightmare to supply.