Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

International legion is forming:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZIjGjooK8bU

[fiksal]

so my personal globally tally of Russian's opinion

immediate relatives and some friends:
2 pro Russia pro war
6 pro Russia
1 maybe
1 mostly negative
0 against
1-2 uncertain / unknown

in other news, a relative of our's small kid got beat up by
locals on a street for being Russian

[Warenwolf]

Some defence company stocks are doing quite well.

Ruble looks bad.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

Does it though? -15% is bad, currently from 0.012 to 0.010 but I think for a country that got into war, heavily sanctioned, excluded from SWIFT, this is merely an inconvenience compared to what one would expect to happen. And zooming out of this 5 day bubble shows Ruble had much tougher times in the past compared to this dent.

During the Black Monday on October 28, 1929, the DOW dropped 13 %. And if you look last ten years ruble overall this is the lowest exchange rate usd vs rub levels you have (the lowest point was at the day of invasion). Also every industry or service dependent on imports just got 13% cost increase. With central bank shoring up ruble by hiking interest rates (doubling it), this means that average citizen got hit in his/her valet rather brutally if they have taken up loan.

Of course, this is not an hostile embargo with submarines sinking Russian merchant ships so effects will not be as dramatic either which is well.

so my personal globally tally of Russian's opinion

immediate relatives and some friends:
2 pro Russia pro war
6 pro Russia
1 maybe
1 mostly negative
0 against
1-2 uncertain / unknown

Are they in russia?
Because in russia this stuff is on news: https://i.imgur.com/mGdU31A.png
Also is pro-Russia in your table = pro-Putin (in my world it obviously is not)

in other news, a relative of our's small kid got beat up by on a street for being Russian

Ahh the filth sees the opportunity to act as scumbags. Why is that so familiar story?

[fiksal]

agreed so let me correct then

I meant pro Putin in above


yep the above are all in Russia, mostly Moscow, except for family with the kid who are in France.

No one we know in Moscow is against Putin's policies.

Some are packing bags literally, expecting nuclear strikes on Moscow pretty soon

[Tamina]

2 pro Russia pro war
6 pro Russia
1 maybe
1 mostly negative
0 against
1-2 uncertain / unknown

My Russian friends (not in Russia) are all pro Russia as well. I noticed there is a significant gap between the different angles of how the world is viewed. Partly understandable, even if I don't share the same opinnions at all, but partly also completely irrational.

in other news, a relative of our's small kid got beat up by
locals on a street for being Russian

Sorry to hear that. Some people are unable to differentiate and that is just sad.

Same thing with the hacker attacks on Russia. I am not convinced they are actually doing anything good. If at all, they will rally people up against Ukraine.

[Warenwolf]

agreed so let me correct then

I meant pro Putin in above

Important difference. I try to use Putin and Putin's instead of Russia and Russian whenever I can. One is the guy who sends people to shit on journalist's cars (among many other things) the other is 1000 year of history.

yep the above are all in Russia, mostly Moscow, except for family with the kid who are in France.

No one we know in Moscow is against Putin's policies.

Some are packing bags literally, expecting nuclear strikes on Moscow pretty soon

Well, that is sad, but not surprising. If all your info is via Putin controlled media or all your friends and familiy are influenced by the very same media... Add to that common experience of last 30 years... No wonder tbh.

[Observe]

Well, that is sad, but not surprising. If all your info is via Putin controlled media or all your friends and familiy are influenced by the very same media.

Unfortunately, the narrative from "our" media is equally controlled and we are similarly influenced. This means we have to be extra vigilant at trying to see past the conditioned story. Not an easy task sometimes. Regardless of the spectrum of propaganda, the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine is entirely unacceptable imo.

I feel fear that Kyiv is about to be taken, as I don't see how they can survive the huge approaching Russian convoy that is now near the outskirts.

[Warenwolf]

Unfortunately, the narrative from "our" media is equally controlled and we are similarly influenced. This means we have to be extra vigilant at trying to see past the conditioned story. Not an easy task sometimes. Regardless of the spectrum of propaganda, the fact that Russia invaded Ukraine is entirely unacceptable imo.

Be aware that "we" represent vastly different nations and vastly different ideological and cultural backgrounds, which (when it comes to ideology) in some cases may be even competing (I know several users on this forum who would find my IRL politics anathema to everything they stand for - I think they are idiots). The media we consume as consequence is vastly different and especially when it comes to non-english one has vastly different ownership structure if we talk about traditional media.
So I find comparison intellectually bit lazy if not entirely untrue.

I feel fear that Kyiv is about to be taken, as I don't see how they can survive the huge approaching Russian convoy that is now near the outskirts.

This column is mostly supplies based on news I have read. Kiev is a city of 3 million people. That is lot of urban area to fight over and even if defenses were limited, it takes time to secure such large area.

That being said, it seems more for me that Russians are keen on isolating Kiev. See the map below - if you go back in time, you will see that rail connection to the west is being bombed and that russians are surrounding cities in the west of the country.
https://liveuamap.com/

I think that Ukrainians are about to commit strategic mistake - defending big cities, making Kiev into a symbol of defense and allowing themselves to be isolated. In the long run, if Russians send adequate forces into Ukraine, this may lead to their undoing. Faster if they understand that cutting off Ukrainians from the borders with NATO countries means faster victory.

But take what I write with grain of salt.

[mr.WHO]

Someone asked good question how will starlink work in Ukraine, if there is no receival terminals...


...seems like Elon kept his word:
https://twitter.com/FedorovMykhailo/sta ... 5262746630

[JSDD]

I think that Ukrainians are about to commit strategic mistake - defending big cities, making Kiev into a symbol of defense and allowing themselves to be isolated. In the long run, if Russians send adequate forces into Ukraine, this may lead to their undoing. Faster if they understand that cutting off Ukrainians from the borders with NATO countries means faster victory.

do ukrainians have any other choice?
russian military power is overwhelming, so ukranians have to hide somewhere in the cities ...

you are right, cutting them off of supply lines means faster victory, but morally it has a bitter taste ...
in case ukranian fighting moral does not break, surrounding cities will / can lead to a humanitarian catastrophe (as it happened in the 2nd world war in russia)

[Incubi]

Looks like Switzerland decided to ditch neutrality and join in the sanctions. I suppose the legendary Swiss bank accounts will be going through a few changes soon. I cannot say that I am happy about this. Neutrality is a difficult thing to maintain, but I felt that mankind needed that one safe spot more than it needed it to take sides. This may need to split from main page, but the implications of this will have far flung consequences, I think. Not to mention the move must be rather antagonizing to Putin, something I do not think is wise to do right now. I know the world is tired of putin up with Putin (bad pun there) but antagonizing a man with nuclear power to this extent when dealing with a problem that could have been avoided with open ears in the first place. Not a great idea. Even if Putin just wanted excuses to invade, dealing with the things that he used as excuses could have declined him his excuse. And now in his honor the Swiss are no longer a neutral country.

I am also not happy with social media banning Russian accounts. Let the people decide who to cancel or preferably boycott (not the same thing) but you can't make it policy to take sides. Yes, ban for cyberbullying and yes ban for criminal activity like trafficking. But choosing sides of a war? With a country that can hack the shit out of you and your clients?

The Madhatter needs to put down the teapot and show Alice the way out of this rabbit hole.

[greypanther]

but antagonizing a man with nuclear power to this extent when dealing with a problem that could have been avoided with open ears in the first place. Not a great idea.

Agreed. We may well rue this day. Assuming we all survive.

[Vertigo 7]

Open ears? His demands were ridiculous on their face. Putin's an irrational despot. Just because someone has a big gun, that doesn't mean you have to put up with their BS. If that's all it takes to get what you want, why don't we all quit our jobs and go wave a gun around and demand money and housing and food and all that?

[Tamina]

@Incubi
I agree with that. They keep digging Russias hole that Putin has started himself. IMO the West needs to offer Russia a possiblity and motivation to climb out of that hole again and stop the ever going spiral of conflict between Russia and the West.

[Vertigo 7]

Absurd. He was offered a way out, numerous times. It was his choice to move on Ukraine. It was his choice to negotiate in bad faith. It was his choice to isolate himself from any criticism of his decision.

[Incubi]

Open ears? His demands were ridiculous on their face. Putin's an irrational despot. Just because someone has a big gun, that doesn't mean you have to put up with their BS. If that's all it takes to get what you want, why don't we all quit our jobs and go wave a gun around and demand money and housing and food and all that?

With open ears we can eliminate his excuses by addressing the issues he is using as one. I did not suggest giving into his demands. Fact is that with open ears could have led to helping with the issues that Ukraine face. And if Putin still wanted to invade, he would have to do it without his excuses and with a lot less support than he manages to haver now. Listening and addressing issues does not mean that you agree. Also, anyone who feels listened to tends to be a lot less aggressive.
Ultimately the ethnic hatred in Ukraine should not have been ignored and treated like Rusia propaganda, the problems are very real in Ukraine, and they do include isolating orphans with disabilities and preventing their adoptions. Things like this do happen there, and Putin uses them as an excuse to attack. Would he have attacked if the west insisted on better treatment of Russian s in Ukraine? I personally doubt it. But western humanity is based on whether or not it gives us an edge against the east. if it helps both sides out? We can't be bothered. We care about Ukraine now that Russia is invading it and not before.

[Vertigo 7]

His excuses were all lies, though. He laid some ancient territorial claim to the land. He said they were going in to "denazifi" the region. He said he wanted a buffer zone because the west points missiles at Russia.

Shit, Russia has been pointing missiles at the west for decades and the USSR was doing it long before that!

He didn't say 1 word about some orphans or Russian's being treated badly. How could he? He sent Russians into Donetsk and Luhansk to kill Ukrainians years ago! And, my dude, Russia ain't no saint when it comes to human rights violations. They are certainly guilty of ethnic cleansings in their own right.

No, dude, you can't put this on anyone else but Putin. His excuses were the only lame ass answer he could vocalize when asked "why?"

[Tamina]

I wouldn't call any of that a way out. Yes, Putin started digging his own grave first, yes Putin decided to attack, yes Putin is to blame. But that doesn't matter. You don't keep hitting a mad wild dog because of his bad behaviour. A way out means actually giving a positive motivation to return to status quo. The way you are arguing is the high morale horse argumentation. You are not wrong. It is just not the most intelligent option to reach your goals and might be actually contra productive.

[Vertigo 7]

I wouldn't call any of that a way out. Yes, Putin started digging his own grave first, yes Putin decided to attack, yes Putin is to blame. But that doesn't matter. You don't keep hitting a mad wild dog because of his bad behaviour. A way out means actually giving a positive motivation to return to status quo. The way you are arguing is the high morale horse argumentation. You are not wrong. It is just not the most intelligent option to reach your goals and might be actually contra productive.

No, you euthanize mad wild dogs. Since we can't do that to him, then what do we have left? Ignore him and just let him do whatever he wants? That's how you get rabies or worse.

[Olterin]

Listening to and voiding excuses wouldn't have done anything - as is, the pretext is "genocide" and "nazis in power". Both patently untrue, both thoroughly painted as being true in Russian state media for years. No, this was going to happen unless "The West" let Putin take Ukraine, and even then I have this feeling that maybe just maybe these people weren't going to just take it lying down anyway.