Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

By the looks of it this war is only going to get more brutal. Cluster munitions for Ukraine? Let Russian soldiers have a taste of their own medicine. I'm just wondering if those F-16s will 1) arrive in time and 2) make much of a difference.

If people would pay attention beyond some trash virtue signaling Tweets, they would knew both Russia and Ukraine have been happily cluster eachother from day one.
Except now Ukraine is running out of clusters.

[EGO_Aut]

By the looks of it this war is only going to get more brutal. Cluster munitions for Ukraine? Let Russian soldiers have a taste of their own medicine. I'm just wondering if those F-16s will 1) arrive in time and 2) make much of a difference.

If people would pay attention beyond some trash virtue signaling Tweets, they would knew both Russia and Ukraine have been happily cluster eachother from day one.
Except now Ukraine is running out of clusters.

Yes they used it since 2014, but what next
Lets give them A,B,C's i am sure they could use them.
What we know since 10.2022 S. would be happy to use some A against his enemys. Yes, yes he corrected it to NATO should have done this, i know.

[Chips]

Which outstanding historic claim does Russia exactly have? Can you elaborate?

I'm not a historian, but it isn't hard to research the history of the area.

My understanding, is that Russia took the Crimean Peninsula from the Crimean Tatars in the 1700's. The Russian empire included Crimea until 1917, when the Soviet Union likewise claimed it. In 1954, the Soviet government transferred Crimea to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.

In that case Russia has a legitimate claim to Alaska. Spain has a legitimate claim to Argentina, Peru, Bolivia; Portugal has a legitimate claim to Brazil, and the UK has a legitimate claim to 1/3rd of the Earth's surface.
Hang on, the Mongol Horde wants Asia. What have we started? O_O

[mr.WHO]

Yes they used it since 2014, but what next
Lets give them A,B,C's i am sure they could use them.
What we know since 10.2022 S. would be happy to use some A against his enemys. Yes, yes he corrected it to NATO should have done this, i know.

Except that unlike clusters, Russia didn't used nukes yet.
However, if Russia would use nuke, then the geenie is out of the bottle and I wouldn't see anything wrong in giving nukes to Ukraine to even the field.
Not that it would matter anything since NATO made it clear that any use of nukes will trigger NATO intervention, where USA, UK and France have plenty of nukes.

As for chemicals, Russia used plenty of those already due to using a loophole that some chemical weapons can be also used in smokescreen generation.
Thus it cannot be proven, if Russia try to gas you or just missfired the smokescreen.

[chew-ie]

While the whole NATO discussion of the last few days regarding Ukraine membership wasn't covered here - I find that piece of information a good summary =)

https://nitter.at/atlanticcouncil/statu ... rnQ&s=46#m
(alternative Twitter link with video snipped of the public forum panel, full videos are available at the atlanticcouncil.org website

(tl;dw: it's not about if anymore but when)

[fiksal]

While the whole NATO discussion of the last few days regarding Ukraine membership wasn't covered here - I find that piece of information a good summary =)

https://nitter.at/atlanticcouncil/statu ... rnQ&s=46#m
(alternative Twitter link with video snipped of the public forum panel, full videos are available at the atlanticcouncil.org website

(tl;dw: it's not about if anymore but when)

what are the conditions attached to "when" I am curious?

I hope something realistic and not tied to regime change in Russia when attacking Russia is somewhat not allowed


EDIT:
So not end of war, which will take "years" but "cease fire" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yldcR718Kl0

and not all territory can be returned.

Interesting choice, security in NATO over fully liberated country.

[notaterran]

One big thing that the war has changed, according to Tsahkna, the Estonian minister, is Ukraine’s place in the western world. Before the invasion, doubts remained about whether Ukraine had fully shed its Soviet past — whether it was still in Moscow’s orbit. “Now, it’s clear for generations, the Ukrainian nation has made their own choice,” he says.

Link

Whatever NATO countries decide (or don't), it's been obvious for a while that Ukrainians don't want to live under Russia's influence. Russia's numerous attacks against civilians will only harden Ukraine's resolve. As this war looks to become even more brutal in the next months, perhaps Vietnam and Afghanistan might give us an idea of what will happen. If the local population is willing to endure as many casualties as needed (and I think Ukrainians are nearing that point) then Russia's defeat is sealed. After that point the difference in military power doesn't mean that much, casualties on both sides will just pile on and on for years. As we saw after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Russia eventually gets tired of war.

[fiksal]

There's no scenario or objective that can be imagined by which this can ever be a win for Russia.

Taking Kyiv, which Russia can't, will not undo sanctions, make Ukraine friendly and the rest of the world excited to deal with Russia. And bring all the dead back.

So Russia has lost awhile back.

Next question is will the Russian state survive this, and some ask specifically, for how long?

Will Ukraine fully control all its territory? And when? That is a hard answer to guess. Eventually I think it'll happen. Russian rule is not sustainable, it brings no justice, no property, no freedom or equality.

[Observe]

Whatever NATO countries decide (or don't), it's been obvious for a while that Ukrainians don't want to live under Russia's influence.

Some do, some don't. Donbass and Crimea in particular. It's not unanimous.

If the local population is willing to endure as many casualties as needed (and I think Ukrainians are nearing that point) then Russia's defeat is sealed.

Russia has already annexed Crimea and Eastern Ukraine. Doesn't look like Russian defeat is sealed. Western support is wavering and changing political tides will likely see additional aid tied to Ukraine accepting compromises.

As we saw after the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Russia eventually gets tired of war.

As did the United States get tired of war in Afghanistan. Russia has already won in Ukraine. All they need to do is hold on to what they've taken and so far and it looks like they will.

Over six million Ukrainians have fled their country. How many of those will return? The longer the war drags on, the more likely Ukrainian refugees will find new lives elsewhere. In the fog of war, the number of casualties is impossible to know. Both sides exaggerate losses on the other side.

With NATO promising eventual inclusion of Ukraine, it is to Russia's advantage to keep the war going as long as possible. It is to Ukraine's advantage to end it as soon as possible. This means that Ukraine will likely cead lost territory, in order to hasten NATO membership.

[Chips]

Not that it would matter anything since NATO made it clear that any use of nukes will trigger NATO intervention, where USA, UK and France have plenty of nukes.

Did they?

Whatever NATO countries decide (or don't), it's been obvious for a while that Ukrainians don't want to live under Russia's influence.

Some do, some don't. Donbass and Crimea in particular. It's not unanimous.

https://theconversation.com/most-people ... vey-124849
Most people in separatist-held areas of Donbas prefer reintegration with Ukraine – new survey
Published: October 14, 2019 9.46am BST

Even in the "Separatist" regions of the Donbass, the desire to be Russian is a minority. (conducted 2016 and 2019).

However, later poll from 2022 which is after many fled the area - https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... c-opinion/ -- and this highlights depending upon the caller location, the answers varied. So they may have been responding what what they think they wanted to hear. Out of fear.


Russia fell apart as the Soviet Union. It will fall apart again even if it "wins". You seem firmly entrenched in some sort of belief that Russia is right, or in the right in this? Seems very odd.

[mr.WHO]

Not that it would matter anything since NATO made it clear that any use of nukes will trigger NATO intervention, where USA, UK and France have plenty of nukes.

Did they?

Both Biden and Stoltenberg stated it clearly and openly.
I think Macron said it indirectly like "France has nukes as well" when Russian officials were trowing nuclear threats.

That leaves UK as only one ambiguous (at least I haven't heard anyhing).

These were statements clearly and repeatly vocalized whenever Russia threatens to use nukes or when there are shenanigans at Zaporozia NPP.

[Chips]

Not that it would matter anything since NATO made it clear that any use of nukes will trigger NATO intervention, where USA, UK and France have plenty of nukes.

Did they?

Both Biden and Stoltenberg stated it clearly and openly.

Then you can find the source... because I can't; furthermore, Stoltenberg has no say over Nuclear Weapon use.

[mr.WHO]

Then you can find the source... because I can't; furthermore, Stoltenberg has no say over Nuclear Weapon use.

I don't keep an archive of every politician remarks and Google seem to be now spammed with articles of ongoing NATO summit.
...and I'm to lazy to dig deeper beyond first 10 page of Google.

[Chips]

Here's a hint. It never happened. FAR more likely.


NATO isn't going to start a nuclear war. This is why sources are important. Because it stops people either mis-remembering, or making things up.

They said "expect a response in kind" with regards to chemical weapons, back when this first started. They didn't say they'd start a war. They NEVER said a nuclear war.

If it was said so frequently, so commonly, you'd be able to use Google + name of news grp, and find any link. There aren't any. The dead giveaway is saying Stoltenberg said it. He has zero nukes.

[Falcrack]

I don't believe it has been stated explicitly what will happen if Russia uses nukes. A lot of the response would probably depend upon where and in what manner they are used. For example, Putin may decide to conduct an above ground test of a nuclear weapon, to tell everyone "look, we have nukes, and they work". That would not invite a military response by NATO, but would be designed to scare the more chicken hearted leaders into pressuring Ukraine to accept territorial concessions.

But I don't thunk such an approach (a nuke test) will work. At each turn where Putin has tried to get his way by fear mongering and threats, he has instead increased to resolve to resist him.

If Putin were to use nukes against Ukraine, I do not think there is any way that the US/NATO could avoid a military response. To do so would signal an abject surrender, and let Putin know that his ace card, the use of nukes, is enough to get him whatever he wants, because NATO would be too scared of total nuclear war to not cave and give him whatever he wants after any use of these weapons. He has to understand that his ace card would not be able to give him what he wants, that NATO would respond in the only language Putin understands, that of force.

But the NATO response would be a massive conventional response, so as to avoid nuclear escalation. The ball would then be in Putin's court, whether to try to increase the escalation by perhaps using nukes on NATO are bases and armed forces, and seeing if they back down then. But NATO would not back down, and the cycle of escalation may continue.

[mr.WHO]

Here's a hint. It never happened. FAR more likely.


NATO isn't going to start a nuclear war. This is why sources are important. Because it stops people either mis-remembering, or making things up.

They said "expect a response in kind" with regards to chemical weapons, back when this first started. They didn't say they'd start a war. They NEVER said a nuclear war.

If it was said so frequently, so commonly, you'd be able to use Google + name of news grp, and find any link. There aren't any. The dead giveaway is saying Stoltenberg said it. He has zero nukes.

https://www.businessinsider.com/russian ... 22-10?IR=T

https://www.reuters.com/world/russian-n ... 022-10-12/


NATO won't start the nuclear war.
NATO will finish it.

[EGO_Aut]

"Almost certainly" there would only US and maybe GB, barking and thread a little more, and not NATO.

France is the only left EU nuke power, they would not get involved.

[mr.WHO]

"Almost certainly" there would only US and maybe GB, barking and thread a little more, and not NATO.

France is the only left EU nuke power, they would not get involved.

Except that France has very liberal nuclear doctrine - according to it, something like radiation fallout from Zaporozia/Urkaine falling on French troop in Romania would be the base for retaliatory strike.

I'm not saying it would happen, but well, last year Western leaders were very consistent on their warnings and actions...unlike Putin.
If Biden say NATO and US will enter the fray in case of Russian nuclear actions, I don't have yet reason to disregard it as empty threat.

So yeah, untill proven otherwise, I treat NATO barking more serious than Putins' barking.

[Alan Phipps]

NATO only works as a mutual defence pact when it commits to a credible and effective whole-pact response to unwarranted aggression against any NATO member, and all its members understand that very basic political fact. The actual whole-pact response level would depend upon the degree of aggression, the circumstances, and the ultimate aims of the response, but there would necessarily be some sort of appropriate response or the whole defence pact principle unravels.

[mr.WHO]

NATO has countries that drag their feet, but also countries that do not shy away to stand up.

Looks at Turkey constantly b*tch slapping Putin several times in a row.

Putin - grain deal ends now!
Erdogan - the deal stays and I have fleet to keep it whenever you want it or not.
Putin - grain deal continues.


There is fallacy in considering NATO as solid unified block - it's one of the biggest flaw, but in the same time it's one of the biggest strength.
I mean, be Putin and try to predict and project 30+ reactions and scenarios, good luck with that