Russia-Ukraine War

[burger1]

Ukraine blows up S400 missile defence and other stuff at Crimea missile base.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 91924c6dd8

Ukraine still making progress towards Mariupol, might have better luck when the ground freezes and becomes like concrete, Ukraine blows up part of Russian bomber/nuclear fleet, more drone attacks on Moscow causing expensive airport shut downs, Russia might try to get bases in South America

[mr.WHO]

Ukraine still making progress towards Mariupol, might have better luck when the ground freezes and becomes like concrete, Ukraine blows up part of Russian bomber/nuclear fleet, more drone attacks on Moscow causing expensive airport shut downs, Russia might try to get bases in South America

Looking back at perfrmace of both sides during the winter, I highly doubt anyone will make a significant progress during winter months.
Mariupol is still far far FAR away from any Ukrainian attack axis.

They still haven't broken through 1st defense line (out of 3).
At current attrition rate, even if they miraclously break the 3rd line, they will be totally without any reserves to explot the breakthrough, so unfortunately it would be Russia defense victory.


I think current offensive will crawl at slow and safe pace till winter.
Then, there will be winter break.
In spring/summer when F-16 arrive there will be last hail Mary counteroffensive, followed by cease-fire and Korean split scenario.

[UnknownObject]

It's a insignificant event I realize, but I still raise my glass for the death of the mass murderer.

As a Russian proverb says, the d**k has badly finished playing violin - it loved music way too much.

[Falcrack]

Ukraine still making progress towards Mariupol, might have better luck when the ground freezes and becomes like concrete, Ukraine blows up part of Russian bomber/nuclear fleet, more drone attacks on Moscow causing expensive airport shut downs, Russia might try to get bases in South America

Looking back at perfrmace of both sides during the winter, I highly doubt anyone will make a significant progress during winter months.
Mariupol is still far far FAR away from any Ukrainian attack axis.

They still haven't broken through 1st defense line (out of 3).
At current attrition rate, even if they miraclously break the 3rd line, they will be totally without any reserves to explot the breakthrough, so unfortunately it would be Russia defense victory.


I think current offensive will crawl at slow and safe pace till winter.
Then, there will be winter break.
In spring/summer when F-16 arrive there will be last hail Mary counteroffensive, followed by cease-fire and Korean split scenario.

Unless what has been going on this whole time is that Russia has been using every last man they could to prevent any possible gain by Ukraine, keeping nothing in reserve. If that is the case, then when a breakthrough is achieved, there is nothing left to prevent them from getting steamrolled. Prepared fortifications in the rear are useless unless they can be properly manned.

[mr.WHO]

Unless what has been going on this whole time is that Russia has been using every last man they could to prevent any possible gain by Ukraine, keeping nothing in reserve. If that is the case, then when a breakthrough is achieved, there is nothing left to prevent them from getting steamrolled. Prepared fortifications in the rear are useless unless they can be properly manned.

Except we don't have any tangible knowledge about the general condition of Russia forces - after 1+ year of "they will break any moment now", I'm more skeptical.
Plus I'm quite sure Russia still can make several waves of sneak mobilization before any internal discontent would rise to truly dangerous levels.

While we migh argue on details, this video show how challenging the situation is for Ukraine to advance, I actually undercounted the amount of defense lines:
https://youtu.be/Jrd9LEfn1aM?si=s4WVpJzGHk9fqZLq&t=544

Last year, I laught at Russians crusing their head on Bahmut, while behind it, Ukraine already had 3 defense lines and 15 more Bahmut like cities.
Welp...now we have reverse Bahmut all the way to Azov Sea.

I'm also very skeptical, if F-16s can make any difference.
If the training would be already finished and the declared amount delivered quickly, then it could be triumph card, but...
...6-8 months from now and in dripping delivery, even Russia at her dumbes will have plenty of time to prepare

I would be more than happy to be wrong, but victory seems to be no longer in reach and an ugly stalemate is best remaining option.

The good news is that presend day technology, yet again favors the defender, so post war Ukraine will probably have to build line after line after line of defense, to stop Russia from ever trying again.

[Sovereign01]

There's also the small matter of the imminent arrival of American M1A1 Abrams on the battlefield in Ukraine in just a few weeks.

[felter]

Ukraine blows up S400 missile defence and other stuff at Crimea missile base.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 91924c6dd8

Ukraine still making progress towards Mariupol, might have better luck when the ground freezes and becomes like concrete, Ukraine blows up part of Russian bomber/nuclear fleet, more drone attacks on Moscow causing expensive airport shut downs, Russia might try to get bases in South America

Ukrainian special forces did a successful land operation in Crimea, I'm wondering if this was the target, sounds like it could have been.

[Warenwolf]

There's also the small matter of the imminent arrival of American M1A1 Abrams on the battlefield in Ukraine in just a few weeks.

The front line is 1200 km long and 31 tanks is not really a game changer.

While we migh argue on details, this video show how challenging the situation is for Ukraine to advance, I actually undercounted the amount of defense lines:
https://youtu.be/Jrd9LEfn1aM?si=s4WVpJzGHk9fqZLq&t=544

I promised myself not to comment on armchair generals that roam the youtube that get linked to on this thread but... I will be castrate my left nut if that guy understand basic military maneuvers instead of repeating stuff he has heard about on Russia Today.

[Sovereign01]

There's also the small matter of the imminent arrival of American M1A1 Abrams on the battlefield in Ukraine in just a few weeks.

The front line is 1200 km long and 31 tanks is not really a game changer.

Assuming they spread them out along the front instead of concentrating them on one weak point and breaking through there.

[mr.WHO]

Assuming they spread them out along the front instead of concentrating them on one weak point and breaking through there.

Read my previous post - there is no weak point - you break one line and all you get is to see 3-4 next lines of bloodbath.

The only place where Russians have single defense line is in the middle of southern front, but there Ukrainians are still afar from the line.
Even if they would teleported and break that line today, there are no roads and natural obstacles would block logistics for any further offense.
That's why Russians only build one line there, coz it's all they need.

People should take a look at this map (turn on fortification filter in lower-left corner):
https://deepstatemap.live/en#6/49.438/32.053

Study the fortification, roads and river placement.
Russians might be r*tarded, but it seem there is someone who knows how to make multi-layer defense from horror.

[Warenwolf]

There's also the small matter of the imminent arrival of American M1A1 Abrams on the battlefield in Ukraine in just a few weeks.

The front line is 1200 km long and 31 tanks is not really a game changer.

Assuming they spread them out along the front instead of concentrating them on one weak point and breaking through there.

Ah ok, you are assuming M1 is wunderwaffe? There is nothing 31 M1 can do tactically than any other tank in Ukrainian inventory can do when it comes to changing the military situation on the ground. Note the last 7 words. I suspect that this few tanks would be used to offset losses already sustained.

Or to put it differently - M1 tank is very good tank (although the version they are getting is 40 years old) and is superior to anything russia fields. But it still can be taken out by artillery, rocket propelled grenades, tank cannons, mines, etc,etc... If Americans had let the UKR get their hands on 300 tanks than the arrival of M1 tanks would have had an impact on the current military situation.

[mr.WHO]

While we migh argue on details, this video show how challenging the situation is for Ukraine to advance, I actually undercounted the amount of defense lines:
https://youtu.be/Jrd9LEfn1aM?si=s4WVpJzGHk9fqZLq&t=544

I promised myself not to comment on armchair generals that roam the youtube that get linked to on this thread but... I will be castrate my left nut if that guy understand basic military maneuvers instead of repeating stuff he has heard about on Russia Today.

I said the details could be argued, but there in really no jumping over multi-layer defense - you can't flank it, you can bypass it, you can't isolate it.
There is only a pain of taking it head on until it break, only to realize you have to do it multiple times.
Without US total artillery, air and materrial superiority, this is pretty much lost cause and this is just reaching Tokmak which is just 1/3 of the road to closest point of Azov sea.
It's the same story in every direction - towards Melitopol, towards Mariupol, from Cherson to Crimea, from Energodar to Melitopol or to Crimea.
Same at Donbas, same at whole Eastern Front.

THERE.IS.NO.GAPS.

The closest analog would be US war at Pacific, hopping from one island to another, towards invasion of Japan...but you have no fleet, no air power and no nukes.

[chew-ie]

So once he dies [in a few years] the legacy of Putin is a festering wound which will wet for decades to come.

[burger1]

The big issue is getting through the mine fields. After the first line of defence might be a harder second line and they might just run people back and forth across minefields.

Have seen a variety of suggestions for clearing mines. Don't see why it can't be automated. Maybe use the mines to clear the mines? Mine probing drone (metal rod, etc... hung/dragged on a long wire?)? Apparently they have had some luck with thermal imaging.

$30 bamboo wind powered ball?

https://www.businessinsider.com/ball-in ... boo-2017-1

Even if a second offensive fails then a third seems likely. Production is picking up slowly which seems kind of dumb it took so long. Mass production would help with fighting. Can't see how they can't be mass producing drones.

Looks like naval warfare is also picking up.

Ukraine might also be able to use much cheaper glide bombs when they get the f16.

[notaterran]

After a time the war enters a phase when the conflict cannot be won militarily: see the United States in Vietnam or the Soviet Union in Afghanistan. Russia has committed countless atrocities in Ukraine, and many Ukrainians have lost family and friends. Eventually the people of Ukraine may decide that they will fight to the end (if they haven't already). When that happens we can count on casualties being several orders of magnitude higher than what they are today, but we can also count on the end of the Russian Federation. Post-war, it's easy to envision Russia going back to the chaos of the 1990s.

My point is that (as long as the West keeps supplying Ukraine) it's difficult to see this war ending in a stalemate. If I were a betting man I'd say this will end with a Russian withdrawal.

[Observe]

My point is that (as long as the West keeps supplying Ukraine) it's difficult to see this war ending in a stalemate. If I were a betting man I'd say this will end with a Russian withdrawal.

Except that parts of the land that Russia would conceivably withdraw from, don't want to be part of Ukraine and were fighting for independence before the current war began. So simply "giving" it back to Ukraine, may not be the best answer from the perspective of those living there.

I find myself wondering why wasn't Ukraine better prepared for this invasion in the first place? Certainly they should have known Russia's intentions after Crimea. Ukraine had years to build up a credible defense. Somehow they squandered the time. Did they naively think that Russia would never dare attack, in spite of evidence to the contrary? Were parts of Eastern Ukraine already so mired in internal conflict that organizing against Russia was not possible?

Anyway, Russia has already annexed the land in question and as far as they are concerned, it is now part of Russia. I don't see Russia "giving" it back to Ukraine. Short of a miracle, with the defenses that Russia has put in place over the last six months or so, I don't see Ukraine taking it back any time soon either. Dribbling small numbers of Western tanks and eventually F16's into Ukraine, isn't going to change the tide and artillery is being expended at a higher rate than can be resupplied.

[Warenwolf]

I said the details could be argued, but there in really no jumping over multi-layer defense - you can't flank it, you can bypass it, you can't isolate it.

So in another words - a proper conventional war?
Yep, it is tough cookie. On another hand, this is not a new problem and something military commanders had to deal with since the ww1. This type of defenses have been used in every conventional war I can think of in one way or another. Difference being setting.

While Russian high command has done well (this type of defense lines is perfect for newly raised troops which have perhaps limited training) they have also (if images are to be trusted) positioned trenches too close, local commanders have dug them on forward slopes instead of reverse slopes of the hills, etc aka typical Russian stuff we have seen so far in the war. But what do I know, so whatever.


But I am not trusting any youtuber who is in his 20s (pro or against Putin), never held a rifle in his life but can't read a map and is making sweeping statements on the military situation. For entertainment? Sure. For info? Hell no. Reason I am telling you this is because the guy you linked fits that profile and has collaborated with people on Kremlin supported info circle. If you have suddenly started to trust him - fair enough. But if I were you, if he told me the sky was blue, I would go outside and check.

The closest analog would be US war at Pacific, hopping from one island to another, towards invasion of Japan...but you have no fleet, no air power and no nukes.

Nothing alike at all... Of all the examples you could pick (from WW2 to Nagorno-Karabakh) you picked the one which is not relevant at all. You don't need nuke either to deal with defense in depth. Tanks, combat engineer and concentration of forces + decent reserve for exploitation operations will get you long way. If there was only a war barely 40 years ago where exactly this situation existed....

[Warenwolf]

I find myself wondering why wasn't Ukraine better prepared for this invasion in the first place? Certainly they should have known Russia's intentions after Crimea. Ukraine had years to build up a credible defense. Somehow they squandered the time. Did they naively think that Russia would never dare attack, in spite of evidence to the contrary? Were parts of Eastern Ukraine already so mired in internal conflict that organizing against Russia was not possible?

You assume political incompetence is limited to only few certain countries?

First of all - they did not sit on their assess all this time - they doubled their military forces and reformed their military. In 2014 the army was in total collapse and thoroughly infiltrated by Russian intelligence. Building up and reforming an army on string-shoe budget takes time.

Also do not ignore the fact that certain western country politicians cozied up to Putin either due to misguided political calculations or economical interests, ignoring the hostile Russian actions in their own countries.
This practically meant that Ukrainians would find themselves hindered in weapon purchases early on - ironically the sale equipment from my native country, which is VERY useful for breaching the type of defenses Ukrainians are facing (and also developed by people assuming they would never have air or artillery superiority) was stopped by political pressure by certain Western nations right after 2014 (in order not to "escalate" the situation).
Lets just say that neither Markel or Macron have covered themselves in glory when it comes to dealing with Kremlin. And then in USA (which actually supported Ukraine from day 1) you had Trump becoming president that really was no reliable ally and was chumming up to Putin.

This was the situation for Ukraine in 2019:
https://www.npr.org/2019/10/10/76888591 ... ut-u-s-hel

Finally may I remind you that there is significant portion of people in the West (and on this forum) who assumed Putin will never do what he did. Do you really think that there was no politicians in Ukraine that thought the same?

What many people forget is that Zelenskiy actually tried to settle the conflict with Russia through negotiations ever since he was elected (see the article above) and he actually held of to mobilization order until Russians were marching towards Kiev despite dire warnings about invasion.

People are treating him as hero now (not in Russia) but I suspect that history's view will be bit more nuanced as time goes on.

[mr.WHO]

So in another words - a proper conventional war?
Yep, it is tough cookie. On another hand, this is not a new problem and something military commanders had to deal with since the ww1. This type of defenses have been used in every conventional war I can think of in one way or another. Difference being setting.

While Russian high command has done well (this type of defense lines is perfect for newly raised troops which have perhaps limited training) they have also (if images are to be trusted) positioned trenches too close, local commanders have dug them on forward slopes instead of reverse slopes of the hills, etc aka typical Russian stuff we have seen so far in the war. But what do I know, so whatever.

The problem is that Ukraine can't wage WW1 style war, because when there is overal force parity, the attacking side will loose huge amount of forces.
To be honest Russia cannot wage such war either, if they would like to break through Ukrainian defense.

Nothing alike at all... Of all the examples you could pick (from WW2 to Nagorno-Karabakh) you picked the one which is not relevant at all. You don't need nuke either to deal with defense in depth. Tanks, combat engineer and concentration of forces + decent reserve for exploitation operations will get you long way. If there was only a war barely 40 years ago where exactly this situation existed....

It's exactly like I described - your example requires proper superiority in many areas like armor, air, artillery and reserves - neither which Ukraine has in required numbers.
If Russia would have 1-2 defense lines then we could hope for miracle, but with what Ukraine has, there is no chance in hell to break 3-4 defense lines with additional 2-3 fortified cities (Tokmak, Melitopol and about dozen villages).


For God sake, imagine you break the line and send Abrams brigade into the breach...but 2 km away there is another line with minefields, ATGMs, artillery and trenches.
There is no sane commander that would do such.
That's why ukrainians struggle to get past first defense line for two months.

The big issue is getting through the mine fields. After the first line of defence might be a harder second line and they might just run people back and forth across minefields.

Have seen a variety of suggestions for clearing mines. Don't see why it can't be automated. Maybe use the mines to clear the mines? Mine probing drone (metal rod, etc... hung/dragged on a long wire?)? Apparently they have had some luck with thermal imaging.

$30 bamboo wind powered ball?

The problem is that mine warfare advanced a bit since WW2.

The best, but not perfect way to demine good and quick, are those rocket launched explosive cables.
Ukrainians used them with success, but the problem is that the cable is at best 100-200 meters long, while Russians made 1-2 km deep minefields.
This means that per assault they would need to launch the cable multiple times and they are sitting ducks - Russians thrown artillery and drones specifically at those sweeper vechicles.


Second problem is that it's not just pressure mines that you have to roll over to detonate.
There are also direction/proximity mines mixed in.
These are intended to target sweepers and vechicles that use sweeped path.
These can have an effective range up to 50-100 meters.
Nasty stuff.

Third, even if you sucessfully and completely sweep a narrow path then send a force through it, there is artillery scatter mines that can be deployed behind advancing troops - trapping them in hell.
Ukraine used them against Russians multiple times (e.g. Vuhledar) and Russia started to use this tactics as well (that video with Ukrainians jumping from Bradley onto the mines).

Unfortunately with those 3 combined, there is no easy way to deal with it - only slow an methodic gaining of area superiority, so you can demine whole wide path...and keep it demined.

[Warenwolf]

For God sake, imagine you break the line and send and Abrams brigade into the breach...but 2 km away there is another line with minefields, ATGMs, artillery and tenches.
There is no sane commander that would do such.

First of all - I want to point out that you can go earlier in the thread and read my warning to the people who assumed Russians would be pushover, including you when that video of tank crushing dragoon tooth was making rounds. Now I will warn against those that preach that current situation is unwinnable.

Now, I have no idea if you by Abrams brigade mean an US Armored Brigade Team or UKR equivalent but if the first, their officers have plenty of training on how to operate in this type of operations through both theoretic and practical training.
To be honest , I have no formal training operating with such formation but basics are known - I would use their mobility, depending on terrain and intelligence, to roll up the line and/or engage the potential reinforcing elements or reinforce the friendlies engaged by such. By this point in time this is not yet an explorative phase of the operations so their mobility may be wasted in an attack on a front attack on second defensive line.

My instinct is not to engage the second line not because it is an unconventional target (it is just another line, too far away for their small arms to be effective) but because Russian commander is reinforcing it right now. In my country's doctrine deception is very important so I would probably instead go for rolling up the existing line (opening up for more opportunities) and trying to draw in as many enemy formations as possible while colleges focus somewhere else. Of course if the enemy seems disorganized, I would take the imitative to breach the second line too (my weakness has always been that I am too aggressive) because his artillery will be hindered by his retreating forces while their routes of retreat will also show me the way through minefields.
Note that by this point I have never used any specialized equipment (except what is implied), I am merely maneuvering my formation -what I try to do is to either exploit an opportunity OR create opportunity for a military formation somewhere else - which creating and exploiting local superiority.

Now, an American or French officer may strongly disagree with above but they will all agree that freezing due to potential casualties is the worst thing you could do.

This is standard conventional warfare. There is nothing Russians have in their tactical toolbox we (non-Russians) have not been trained for. Or vice versa - 1st Belorussian Front faced the same situation in 1945 in front of Berlin when facing defenses of Seelow Heights. In fact, I suspect strongly that Russian generals copied that defense plan when devising their lines of defense.

What you are doing right now is typical for people with no formal military training : not differentiating between strategic parity and tactical operational (local) superiority.

------------

The problem is that Ukrainians have been hampered by different type of equipment and slow delivery that equipment. At some time they needed to develop tactics which are suitable for equipment they are getting. This is not done by couple of months - this takes long time. And clearly, they are not yet done.
And they are attacking along expected lines of attack which I consider stupid.

And at same time, they cannot over-commit because unless they have 100% good intel, Russians may have moved their mobile formations to the eastern front, waiting for Ukrainians to deploy their forces before engaging in their own offensive, rolling up previous year's Ukrainian gains. Because this is also standard Russian tool-box.

And that is why we have not seen rapid changes of the frontlines - thing takes time and wars are not won instantly.