Russia-Ukraine War

[EGO_Aut]

The main problem isn't gear or strategy. But the lack/extinction of professional, well-trained soldiers.

At some point there will be a change of heart, the poor will no longer want to die for the rich - at the latest then the war will soon be over.

[Warenwolf]

At some point there will be a change of heart, the poor will no longer want to die for the rich - at the latest then the war will soon be over.

Russians will fight for their oligarchs as long as defeat is not staring them in the eyes. And even then they will blame West for why they lost and learn nothing from this.

So I disagree with you.

[fiksal]

It's a insignificant event I realize, but I still raise my glass for the death of the mass murderer.

As a Russian proverb says, the d**k has badly finished playing violin - it loved music way too much.

I think you'll need to show me it in Russian, I am a bit lost what it might be)

The main problem isn't gear or strategy. But the lack/extinction of professional, well-trained soldiers.

At some point there will be a change of heart, the poor will no longer want to die for the rich - at the latest then the war will soon be over.

is your opinion of the war changing?

[EGO_Aut]

The.....
....over.

is your opinion of the war changing?

Fundamentaly my opinion is to make love, not war. - Since my children were born Perspectives can change over the decades.

But humans are too stupid for liberty and peace, and most of them have no yoice.

[fiksal]

The.....
....over.

is your opinion of the war changing?

Fundamentaly my opinion is to make love, not war. - Since my children were born Perspectives can change over the decades.

But humans are too stupid for liberty and peace, and most of them have no yoice.

do you support currently the Russian army then?

[EGO_Aut]

is your opinion of the war changing?

Fundamentaly my opinion is to make love, not war. - Since my children were born Perspectives can change over the decades.

But humans are too stupid for liberty and peace, and most of them have no yoice.

do you support currently the Russian army then?

Of course, i support both sides, i am Austrian, sry!

We still get (some) RU gas to heat our homes, and with my taxes and EU sanctions, i support UKR to kill RU invaders.

[fiksal]

Of course, i support both sides, i am Austrian, sry!

We still get (some) RU gas to heat our homes, and with my taxes and EU sanctions, i support UKR to kill RU invaders.

what both sides?

[mr.WHO]

The problem is that Ukrainians have been hampered by different type of equipment and slow delivery that equipment. At some time they needed to develop tactics which are suitable for equipment they are getting. This is not done by couple of months - this takes long time. And clearly, they are not yet done.
And they are attacking along expected lines of attack which I consider stupid.

And at same time, they cannot over-commit because unless they have 100% good intel, Russians may have moved their mobile formations to the eastern front, waiting for Ukrainians to deploy their forces before engaging in their own offensive, rolling up previous year's Ukrainian gains. Because this is also standard Russian tool-box.

And that is why we have not seen rapid changes of the frontlines - thing takes time and wars are not won instantly.

I fully agree with this part.
However, from my perspective, we need to define minimum viable victory condition for Ukraine.
For me it's breaking the Crimea land bridge - thus to achive it, you need to break the mutiple known fortifcation lines and fortified cities.
We have already good track record of both Ukrainian and Russian performance against fortified positions, so it's good extrapolation point to see what is possible for Ukraine and Russia.

There is always a possibility of black swan event, like Prigozin coup - but even those are not guarantee to deliver the impact on strategic level.

As much as I'd like to see Ukraine reaching Azov sea, I think we'll need to realize that Korea scenario will be the most likely outcome next year.

[Warenwolf]

As much as I'd like to see Ukraine reaching Azov sea, I think we'll need to realize that Korea scenario will be the most likely outcome next year.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/08/25/ru ... roffensive

It is up for Ukrainians to accept any peace offer. If they say "this is it" - I'll be the first one to support them.
But with Transnistria in their west and Russian proven track record of ignoring treaties do you really think it would be anything else than kicking the can down the road?

[fiksal]

I think the tricky part for Ukraine, is a piece treaty won't matter for Russia.

As it no longer recognizes the country, people, anything.


So even if such deal could be made, it is impossible

[Observe]

I think the tricky part for Ukraine, is a piece treaty won't matter for Russia.

It can be made to matter. I imagine Putin has an endgame wish list. So presumably does Ukraine. Neither is likely to get everything they want.

As it no longer recognizes the country, people, anything.

It'll have to.

So even if such deal could be made, it is impossible

If it is possible to start a war, it is also possible to stop it.

[fiksal]

I think the tricky part for Ukraine, is a piece treaty won't matter for Russia.

It can be made to matter. I imagine Putin has an endgame wish list. So presumably does Ukraine. Neither is likely to get everything they want.

As it no longer recognizes the country, people, anything.

It'll have to.

So even if such deal could be made, it is impossible

If it is possible to start a war, it is also possible to stop it.

but we discussed that already, Observe,

The only way to make it matter is to change the Russian regime and to erase that ideology. No one wants to do it, right?

As soon as you negotiate anything, Kremlin will use that to carve out Ukraine first, finish the ethnic cleansing then will finish the invasion. There's no drawback to any of this for Kremlin, no punishment from the West is likely.

I wasn't joking last time, I can do my best best pretending to speak as Kremlin and Russian propaganda if you try offering me terms in this war.

[Sovereign01]

That there's claims and counterclaims being made on how much ground the Ukrainians are gaining and how quickly is extremely counterproductive when it comes to ascertaining the actual situation on the ground.

The only thing I can say with any confidence is that if the war hasn't ended by November 5, 2024 and Trump becomes president, he'll happily throw Ukraine under the bus because Trump loves Putin.

[burger1]

The only thing I can say with any confidence is that if the war hasn't ended by November 5, 2024 and Trump becomes president, he'll happily throw Ukraine under the bus because Trump loves Putin.

If Trump wins the US might leave NATO. He also damaged quite a few relations with other countries like Iran and Cuba. Technically he can't legally run for office for quite a few legal reasons.

[UnknownObject]

I think you'll need to show me it in Russian, I am a bit lost what it might be)

https://clck.ru/35UfCS

[fiksal]

I think you'll need to show me it in Russian, I am a bit lost what it might be)

https://clck.ru/35UfCS

O!

[Sovereign01]

They are now sending the VDV (or whatever they have trained up to replace the losses) to man the trenches at the southern looming breakthrough.

Sending "special forces"/paratroopers to man trenches means you have nothing else left. Nothing of their training will help them to be any more effective than a normal infantryman at dodging artillery shells and drones. Sending those means that all your reserves are deployed and you need to start pulling from other locations to plug gaps.

8 weeks. It took eight weeks to get "off the beach", but it seems like the breach is imminent, now.

People keep posting about the fabled defensive lines, but then, with no one sitting inside those positions, they are nothing more than a slightly more secure backyard fence.

[Tamina]

We will see if your assumption holds true of an imminent breach. And the assumptions from everyone else in this thread for that matter.

I am very skeptical of these bold statements. At the moment there are working defense lines, and Ukraine is now in the same unfavorable position Russia was at the beginning of the war but with a much smaller force.

I have seen too much wishful thinking on both sides, too much hollywood-action-movie-mentality that the good guys don't die.

[notaterran]

Sending "special forces"/paratroopers to man trenches means you have nothing else left.

[...]

People keep posting about the fabled defensive lines, but then, with no one sitting inside those positions, they are nothing more than a slightly more secure backyard fence.

Here's hoping for a Ukrainian breakthrough.

[fiksal]

if VDV goes it seems there's really no-one left. So next mobilization is in September?

Tried to skim Russian news for anything juicy. They seem to be high on some kind of drugs, but nothing of interest. Nothing about the war, not about Prigozhin, occasional posts of drone attacks.

Fun to see Novaya Gazeta trying to edge its way into something to report. A half dead web paper that's trying to post some articles concerning "aggressive" nationalism. I get it, cant say fascism. I wonder if anyone is reading them, just like I am impressed they are still around. Still, cant call them news for obvious reasons.