Russia-Ukraine War

[clakclak]

[...]

Musk wrote in another tweet. "Russia has (over) 3 times population of Ukraine, so victory for Ukraine is unlikely in total war. If you care about the people of Ukraine, seek peace."

He somewhere between ultra naive and a Kremlin enabler. Could he be a Putin lover? Why not. Or maybe he just likes to talk a lot to stay relevant.

I am having a hard time seeing much difference - is Musk even a worthy of a conversation?

Musk is South African right? How the hell did he end up making a statement like that? His home country lost a war well within his lifetime against Namibia. Namibia back than had a population of roughly 2.5 million and South Africa had a population of more than 40 million. The idea that the simply size of a countries population is the factor that determines the outcome of a war is so incredibly absurd that I do not even know where to start. There are so many other factors to consider. The Economy, Forgein Aid, Military Training and Equipment, Supplies, Infrastructure, Will to Fight, political stability and so on and on.

[mr.WHO]

Seem like Ukraine is on naval streak - several more small/medium patrol ships have been hit (two medium below and two small/cutter size):
https://twitter.com/clashreport/status/ ... 8107819390

[fiksal]

and then an air defense system

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66805897

Earlier on Thursday, a number of explosions were reported in the Crimean peninsula, which Russia illegally occupied in 2014.

According to the BBC's intelligence source, the Ukrainian operation used drones to take out radar equipment, then cruise missiles to hit air defence missile launchers.

"After disabling the radar stations, the navy units hit the S300 and S400 'Triumph' systems, worth $1.2bn, by two Neptune cruise missiles," the source said.

Neptune missiles were designed by Ukraine's military for naval use but have been modified for ground targets as well.

No details were provided on the number of the batteries that had been hit.

Citing local residents, Ukrainian media reported that explosions happened at around 05:40 local time (02:40 GMT) and smoke was seen near the military base.

BBC Verify has analysed footage on social media of smoke rising and believes it to be of the attack on Yevpatoriya.

EDIT: And there's more, ships destroyed in Crimea

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... submarine/

...
The two ships in the drydock—a Ropucha-class amphibious ship and a Kilo-class submarine—burned through the night. In the morning, imaging satellites spotted two roasted hulks: proof both vessels likely were beyond repair.
...
The raid was the culmination of months of effort by Ukraine and its allies to arm the bomber regiment’s Sukhois, reduce Russian defenses and then strike when two valuable ships were most vulnerable: when they were out of the water.

In 19 months of hard fighting with an enemy that has no major warships, the Black Sea Fleet has lost a cruiser, three amphibious ships, a submarine, a supply ship and several patrol boats and landing craft

we can remember what Musk said on this, after (I didnt count) how many attacks on Crimea already. We can also remember the constant nuclear black mail, dating back to 2014 if you recall. It's always been a bluff, a bluff that we shouldnt take lightly of course and make sure appropriate response is followed through, plus not to forget that there are consequence for this black mail.

[Warenwolf]

He somewhere between ultra naive and a Kremlin enabler. Could he be a Putin lover? Why not. Or maybe he just likes to talk a lot to stay relevant.

I am having a hard time seeing much difference - is Musk even a worthy of a conversation?

He has both business interests in Russia AND likes to be in the center of attention. Note his comments regarding the Taiwan - they are directly linked to his Chinese ventures. As whether he is worthy of conversation - not really. He is not the first or last businessmen who finds authoritarian regimes to be easily to deal with than mercurial liberal democracies of the West.

[mr.WHO]

Yeah, it rubs me in wrong way, how many multi-billionares and billionares are eager to simp for Russia and China.
Musk is not the only one.

But then, it has quite a long history/tradition - like Saudi Arabia has a history of murder, terror support and ongoing war. Yet, the simping continue unless US became in the mood to be gas/oil self sufficient.
Globalism was very naive, thinking we could democratize Russia/China - instead, we are gradually Russify/Chinafy the West by constantly lowering the social/political standards.

Ohh, and don't think common people/all of us are innocent either - we all basically fund this crap via global investment funds - our retirement money funds China - next time you see your payslip, think about Ujgur genocide - you're just a step away from croudfunding Auschwitz (Disney Mulan live action film had Chinese concentration camp for Ujgur in credit notes!)


On the positive note, decoupling from both Russia and China is progressing, so hopefully things will be less grim in the future.

[Observe]

I am having a hard time seeing much difference - is Musk even a worthy of a conversation?

In spite of accolades for Musk from Ukraine government officials about the tremendous help that Starlink has represented, apparently no good deed deserves to go unpunished in your book?

[fiksal]

I am having a hard time seeing much difference - is Musk even a worthy of a conversation?

In spite of accolades for Musk from Ukraine government officials about the tremendous help that Starlink has represented, apparently no good deed deserves to go unpunished in your book?

it's not a plus or minus scale or a slider. I'll give him credit for good and I'll give him what's deserved for bad

[Observe]

it's not a plus or minus scale or a slider. I'll give him credit for good and I'll give him what's deserved for bad

And the bad being that he originally deactivated over Crimea because of sanctions against Russia?

[mr.WHO]

Hmm, aparently we avoided Russian attack on NATO as Russian fighter had missile dysfunction when consciously firing two missiles:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-66798508


For someone, this would be a divine providence, for someone else, another proof Russian Air Force is in tough competition with Russian Navy for most useless armed force

[fiksal]

So Kadyrov is not feeling well, or so are the rumours?

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2023/09/15/7420017/

Chechen leader Kadyrov is in critical condition – Ukrainian intelligence

Andrii Yusov, representative of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, has stated that Ramzan Kadyrov, Head of the Kremlin-controlled Chechnya, is in critical condition.

will wait for confirmations or is he on his way out?

it's not a plus or minus scale or a slider. I'll give him credit for good and I'll give him what's deserved for bad

And the bad being that he originally deactivated over Crimea because of sanctions against Russia?

I'd say it's this list

- refusal of service to Ukrainians in 2022 (not 2014), before contract. I didnt find any mentions of sanctions in that little statement of his - doesnt look like the reason.
- repeating Kremlin propaganda (or one of parts of) about Ukraine accepting territory (and people) losses
- repeating Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine making it a law(?) not to (attempt to) join NATO and not to join EU (which is also a demand from Kremlin)
- spreading Kremlin's nuclear blackmail

[Observe]

I'd say it's this list

- refusal of service to Ukrainians in 2014, before contract. I didnt find any mentions of sanctions in that little statement of his - doesnt look like the reason.
- repeating Kremlin propaganda (or one of parts of) about Ukraine accepting territory (and people) losses
- repeating Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine making it a law(?) not to (attempt to) join NATO and not to join EU (which is also a demand from Kremlin)
- spreading Kremlin's nuclear blackmail

1. Starlink didn't exist in 2014.
2. The idea of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia is not Musk's idea. This is a commonly prescribed and obvious remedy to end the bloodshed.
3. Ukraine joining NATO is a bone of contention. It may well be part of any eventual peace deal.
4. Nuclear war is a concern of course.

Keep in mind, the fog of propaganda in war always swings both ways. I tend to be suspicious of what either side says at this point. That said, there is no question that Russia is in the wrong. They should never have invaded, regardless of possibly legitimate security concerns that they may have.

[fiksal]

I'd say it's this list

- refusal of service to Ukrainians in 2014, before contract. I didnt find any mentions of sanctions in that little statement of his - doesnt look like the reason.
- repeating Kremlin propaganda (or one of parts of) about Ukraine accepting territory (and people) losses
- repeating Kremlin propaganda about Ukraine making it a law(?) not to (attempt to) join NATO and not to join EU (which is also a demand from Kremlin)
- spreading Kremlin's nuclear blackmail

1. Starlink didn't exist in 2014.
2. The idea of Ukraine ceding territory to Russia is not Musk's idea. This is a commonly prescribed and obvious remedy to end the bloodshed.
3. Ukraine joining NATO is a bone of contention. It may well be part of any eventual peace deal.
4. Nuclear war is a concern of course.

1. typo fixed, 2022
2. my point about him repeating not, not that it's his. It's not obvious because there are no guarantees that it'll work, and all messaging from Kremlin that it won't end there. Still, we are talking about Musk here, and him repeating it. And we already talked about ethnic cleansing.
3. only Ukraine can choose what it wants to do there; Russia has no say in this.
4. nuclear blackmail is a concern as well and needs to be recognized rather than parrotted.

Keep in mind, the fog of propaganda in war always swings both ways. I tend to be suspicious of what either side says at this point. That said, there is no question that Russia is in the wrong. They should never have invaded, regardless of possibly legitimate security concerns that they may have.

What fog? I dont see any point you questioned from what I said as being fake, propaganda or other.

What's "legitimate" to them isnt "legitimate" to me.

[EGO_Aut]

3. Ukraine can not choose ALL members have to accept. Btw. I still think this was the Casus Belli. The mobilisation and flexing on RU boarder was to show not to go this way, and took too long to surprise UKR.

[Observe]

@fiksal: We already discussed the 2022 Starlink issue. Whether to create an independent, demilitarized buffer zone of Donbass, will be up to peace negotiations. Ditto with the NATO situation. I suppose if there was a buffer between Ukraine and Russia, it might be acceptable to Russia. And as EGO_Aut said, this is not strictly up to Ukraine. Pretending that Russia doesn't have legitimate concerns, is not the way to go.

What's "legitimate" to them isnt "legitimate" to me.

Yes, I know that is how you feel about it and there is no way to legitimize what Russia has done. Nevertheless, here we are and peace must be forged. The sooner, the better, because nothing is more valuable than life.

[fiksal]

3. Ukraine can not choose ALL members have to accept. Btw. I still think this was the Casus Belli. The mobilisation and flexing on RU boarder was to show not to go this way, and took too long to surprise UKR.

I can clarify

my quote is

only Ukraine can choose what it wants to do there

Members of EU and NATO approve memberships.

But only Ukraine can choose whether it wants to apply or not.

Ukraine is not unique here, this applies to every country.
It's not a negotiable item for me.

Yes, I know that is how you feel about it and there is no way to legitimize what Russia has done. Nevertheless, here we are and peace must be forged. The sooner, the better, because nothing is more valuable than life.

I agree, and no peace is possible while Putin and his regime now or after remains in power. The worst we (the "west") can do is to prolong this war, freeze it, delay it, so it's restarted later. The "west" needs a long term plan.

I am, it may surprise you, is for Russians as well. Russians should come up with the plan too. They must find themselves and free from this imperialism. There's no peace in imperialism, and in fascism. Or we/they will disappear into obscurity, rightfully so.



On the related topic, we never quite got to discuss the terms of the peace that you see? What territories and countries are not acceptable to be given to Russia for the peace and what are?
I have a list of demands and territories

[Observe]

On the related topic, we never quite got to discuss the terms of the peace that you see? What territories and countries are not acceptable to be given to Russia for the peace and what are?
I have a list of demands and territories

Yes, and I haven't forgotten your offer to discuss. Perhaps I'll ask for your recognized expert opinion when my feeble brain can come up with something sensible.

[burger1]

Apparently Russia has hovercraft still and one got damaged. No idea why there aren't being used more since they can float/glide across the mud, snow, ice and water ways.

https://news.yahoo.com/media-ukraine-hi ... 54388.html

Frances embassy staff have been taken hostage in Niger by the military coup government of Niger.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/france-am ... -1.6968551

France denied earlier that it asked to use Algeria airspace for military operations. The US is currently gathering intel on Niger. Ecowas still hasn't launched an attack. Some wagner mercenaries killed.

https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/al ... 023-08-22/

Ukraine still headed to Melitopl. According to one person it might be about 43 days until Ukraine gets there.

Ukraine keeps attacking targets behind enemy lines and in Russia. The deep war.

Russian military production apparently at or above pre war levels again.

Russia apparently passing through Romanian airspace as a shield when launching attacks on Ukraine.

example: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... st-ukraine

Things were stirring up a bit in Syria but on multiple fronts/angles. Might be a way to attack Russian forces indirectly and cause them more grief and forcing them to make choices?

Kadyrov is apparently in critical condition. Putin trying to consolidate more power under his direct control vs using others.

https://news.yahoo.com/military-intelli ... 37896.html

Russian scientist dies of mushroom poisoning after lunar landing craft crashes into the moon.

https://metro.co.uk/2023/08/31/top-russ ... -19428229/

[fiksal]

On the related topic, we never quite got to discuss the terms of the peace that you see? What territories and countries are not acceptable to be given to Russia for the peace and what are?
I have a list of demands and territories

Yes, and I haven't forgotten your offer to discuss. Perhaps I'll ask for your recognized expert opinion when my feeble brain can come up with something sensible.

My expertise starts and ends in understanding the language. It's not really remarkable.

[EGO_Aut]

About giving back territories:
I dont think Putin will give back land with a UKR minority, remember civ. war? Maybe, if UKR will get neutral, that he will give back the Hunter Biden 1$ Gas field territorie (dont know the name now).
Take a look to Israel, they still hold conquered territories, only Sinai and Suez did go back what i know

[fiksal]

About giving back territories:
I dont think Putin will give back land with a UKR minority, remember civ. war? Maybe, if UKR will get neutral, that he will give back the Hunter Biden 1$ Gas field territorie (dont know the name now).
Take a look to Israel, they still hold conquered territories, only Sinai and Suez did go back what i know

Neutral in Kremlin terms is a "subject".

And of course not, Putin would not give any territories back, including those that Russia doesn't control anymore. (Except to China it seems).

If it were up to him, but it's not.

There's something isn't happening, it's a mobilization of people of Crimea against Ukrainian attacks. It appears Crimeans are now as depoliticized as Russians. What that can mean, is that Crimea can just as easily switch sides back to Ukraine once Russian troops are starved.

It's my hunch, and it's a recent one. We'll see if it's a right one.


For other Ukrainian territories, they seem eager to be liberated. For Donbass, not sure, hard to say what they actually want if you remove all Russian troops and all Russian thugs that came to run the towns. Maybe Donbass just wants peace, recognition and freedom, and if Ukraine can give it, then it's a better deal than Russia's.