Russia-Ukraine War

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fiksal
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal »

Tamina wrote: Sat, 14. Oct 23, 22:25 So Russia starts their biggest offensive since the beginning of the war, the same second Israel gets attacked?

Weird coincidences.
(Russian Z thinking on)

Since USA controls Ukraine, Ukrainians can't fight on their own, plus, USA controls Israel, USA being busy with Israel means USA isn't busy with Ukraine, means Ukraine can't fight. Also, since USA controls Europe, while USA is busy, Europe will freeze all help to Ukraine as well.

(ctr z)

It's just a guess
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Chips
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Tamina wrote: Sat, 14. Oct 23, 22:25 So Russia starts their biggest offensive since the beginning of the war, the same second Israel gets attacked?

Weird coincidences.
Bury bad news behind other's bad news. I don't even see Ukraine in my news feed at the moment.

Maybe?

What's next, a North Korea missile/nuke test, or China causing serious upset over the Spratley's/Taiwan?

However, I wouldn't be too surprised if more gas pipelines had some struggles elsewhere, perhaps an internet trunk line or two, Iran doing something, and maybe something kicking off around the Caspian? Spread the attention of the US, spread the resources of the EU. Make it a really hard winter for Europe to test their *actual* resolve.

US resources (intel wise) are likely going to be split between Ukraine and Israel as priorities - rather than all on Ukraine. It could be coincidence, and it could be an opportunity.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Chips wrote: Sat, 14. Oct 23, 22:56 What's next, a North Korea missile/nuke test, or China causing serious upset over the Spratley's/Taiwan?
Potential flashpoints to join:
- Serbia trying to retake Kosovo
- Azerbeijan trying to push deeper into Armenia (they have another exclave cut by Armenian territory), possibly Iran involvement (on Armenia side)
- Niger and that African Union intervention materializing
- Yemen conflict gaining anew fuel
- Ethiopia-Sudan-Egypt water conflict over the Ethiopian dam
- Mjanma/Burma rebelion
- Taiwan
- South-China sea conflict over 7-dash lines (now it expanded to 9-dash lines) with Philiphines and other countries (Vietnam, Thailand, possibly Japan joining in)

Anyhing else?

...damn there is a lot of powder kegs waiting.
Last edited by mr.WHO on Sun, 15. Oct 23, 01:05, edited 1 time in total.
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fiksal
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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+ North Korea?


Russia has old Soviet republics on the list including Moldova


so we fight all wars at once so that whoever is left don't have to
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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fiksal wrote: Sun, 15. Oct 23, 00:11 + North Korea?
Given the speed and amount of stuff South Korea is currently producing for Poland, I could see Vlad pushing North Korea to try to disturb this logistic line.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Long range missiles for Ukraine, finally. In sufficient quantities they can give Russia a headache.
Ukraine uses US-supplied ATACMS long-range missiles for first time in attack on Russian airbases
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Some good news.

Russia apparently already claimed they destroyed most of these. Good for them, good for their propaganda - always has something to say.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Big losses for Russia today in another failed assault on Avdiivka and other areas.

people lost - 1380
armored vehicles - 120
tanks lost - 55
artilley - 29
mlrs - 4

21 helicopters might have been destroyed in the atacms attack???

Ukraine crosses the Dnipro river and forms a larger bridgehead for future operations on the other side of the river.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67058953

more explosions in Sevastopol in the last few days

Russia uses bakery to produce drones + bakery items?

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/10/16/ ... n-ukraine/

Russia using new 1500kg (3300 lb) glide bombs

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... 23-10?op=1
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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burger1 wrote: Fri, 20. Oct 23, 10:17Russia using new 1500kg (3300 lb) glide bombs

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia- ... 23-10?op=1
From that same article:
Much of the damage inflicted by these bombs has been on civilian infrastructure and many casualties have been civilians, which has "huge psychological effects" on the population, he said.
I can imagine that "huge psychological effects" will make Ukrainians hate Russia even more. Russia's military has attacked so many civilians for so long, I wonder if Russia's terror bombings will even change anything at this point.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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notaterran wrote: Fri, 20. Oct 23, 17:39 I can imagine that "huge psychological effects" will make Ukrainians hate Russia even more. Russia's military has attacked so many civilians for so long, I wonder if Russia's terror bombings will even change anything at this point.
Sadly, historically speaking, Russians never really cared that much if there were hated or not on the lands they conquered - once you kill or send to gulag enough of people you can just rewrite the history and colonize the land.

They are awfully consistent on the lesson, they were taugh by Genghis Khan mongol hordes.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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The Russian mentality and way of doing things didn't work in the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and it looks like in the end it won't work in Ukraine. Russia is not fighting a separatist movement like in Chechnya, they're fighting an entire country. Judging by Russia's recent lackluster offensives it seems that they can no longer win the war militarily (maybe that's the reason for all the terror bombings against civilians?).
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

notaterran wrote: Fri, 20. Oct 23, 22:24 (maybe that's the reason for all the terror bombings against civilians?).
Of course it is - and it seems they can get away with it because no body seems to care enough about it.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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why do they do it, because the are indifferently evil?

the kind of evil that just doesn't care.

There's some indication that Russians more or less hate now Ukrainians too, for fighting back, for refusing to be Russian.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Sweden is closer to getting into NATO.

https://news.yahoo.com/hungary-spotligh ... 05833.html

Assault on Avdiivka continues with heavy Russian losses. Ukraines expanding in other areas to counter it. Losses might be from recent forced recruitment in occupied areas? Explosions and gunfire in Sevastopol recently.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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US has a new house speaker. He's apparently a religious fanatic and tried to get the 2020 election results overturned. Might be overall neutral in regards to Ukraine.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Has this war now reached a stalemate and does this effectively mean that Russia has won? Ukraine seems to lack the ability to push Russia out, and now Russia can continue building defenses for next year for a rinse and repeat.

Ukraine has been eating through ammunition allocations faster than expected and finds themselves looking at a shortage of firepower at a time when international commitment is wavering and distracted elsewhere. Then there is severe battle fatigue among troops, with consequent impact on moral. Of course it is assumed that Russia is suffering from depleted ammunition and moral problems too - hence stalemate?
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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It's probably too soon for a stalemate, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan lasted for about 10 years. If it's a stalemate, it might be the kind that Russia does not want, for example like the Korean War. Let's say that by 2025 there's a cease-fire, Russia will use the opportunity to rebuild its lackluster forces but the West might arm Ukraine to the teeth. Consider what happened in 2022: Russia invaded with all its arsenal and best soldiers and still could not take Kyiv, even though Ukraine didn't have modern weapons. Even if Russia keeps some of the stolen land, Ukraine could be made militarily stronger than it was before the 2022 invasion. Just like North Korea today can only issue empty threats against South Korea, a stalemate with Ukraine might be bad for Russia in the long run. By the time Russia can attack again, Ukraine will have a sign at the border that reads: "Come at me bro". In other words, Russia will simply become a bigger version of North Korea.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Observe wrote: Thu, 2. Nov 23, 02:36 and does this effectively mean that Russia has won?
depends on the media interpretation more than any current events.


Ukrainians don't see the slow down around the winter as a loss, and Russians don't see it as a victory, I think. Kyiv was promised to Russians and permanent ban from EU and NATO for Ukraine. Not sure either Kremlin or Russians are quite ready to embrace these fruits of their labor
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Russia tactical victory - making and holding land brige to Crimea.

However, in the same time...


Russia strategic defeat - they failed to defeat Ukraine, lost more money and equipment, than captured lands are worth and will have to keep pumping money for decades to come. Finland and Sweden getting into NATO, Ukraine now surefire aligned with NATO and EU. Turkey pushing Russia out of Kaukaz region. Europe detached from Russia gas and oil. Everybody thinks twice or trice, before buying Russian military equipment.

ohh and 150k to 300k dead and wounded and rising - this will surely help with Russia demography.

Russia can spin this however they want, but they will finish this conflict much weaker than when starting it.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

Observe wrote: Thu, 2. Nov 23, 02:36 Ukraine has been eating through ammunition allocations faster than expected and finds themselves looking at a shortage of firepower at a time when international commitment is wavering and distracted elsewhere. Then there is severe battle fatigue among troops, with consequent impact on moral. Of course it is assumed that Russia is suffering from depleted ammunition and moral problems too - hence stalemate?
IMHO that is what Russia is hoping for all the time and in fact is working towards by manipulating politicis on a global scale. Also I see here a reason why Russia is intensifing & concentrating their attacks right now - to finally "break" Ukraine. I'd say it is the time all the commitment is on trial and has to stay strong - otherwise all the previous investments were useless.

Besides the commitment of the partners I pretty much doubt that Ukraine is "broken" at this time. Even if (big if) no further support comes from the current partners, the conflict isn't solved by a long shot. Actually forcing Ukraine to scale down the conflict and switch to full on guerrilla warfare would be the worst outcome for Russia. But then again we know they like to do stupid things.

Still - a shame though this conflict couldn't be resolved quickly. I pretty much hoped to see Russia being pushed back this year, but it couldn't happen (for a variety of reasons, mainly due to their overdone turtle tactics) - so we'll get a long(er) conflict then. Talk about stalemate is IMHO just that - talk. Like so many other (e.g. Russia having no ammo left; Russia having no men left; ...), this conflict showed more then once that things aren't working as predicted or "talked about".

Gamechanger would be if the Ukraine national identity is broken - but I see it strengthened. Not only that, it is supported by every of their western neighbors. I'd say Russia is going for Afghanistan reloaded.
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