Russia-Ukraine War

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Observe
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Observe »

chew-ie wrote: Fri, 3. Nov 23, 12:48I'd say it is the time all the commitment is on trial and has to stay strong - otherwise all the previous investments were useless.
Perhaps those investments were useless? Ukraine has retaken a mere sliver of land since last summer and Russia still occupies nearly 20% of the land that they've stolen since the 2022 invasion. That doesn't include Crimea, which Ukraine might as well forget about altogether for now.

CNN Article: Ukraine's military chief, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny seems almost puzzled that the arsenal supplied to Ukraine by its Western allies, and the mobilization of several more brigades, has made so little difference. Changing commanders and moving divisions have had no impact, he says. “Four months should have been enough time for us to have reached Crimea, to have fought in Crimea, to return from Crimea and to have gone back in and out again,” he adds.

“Exhaustion with the war rolls along like a wave. You see it in the United States, in Europe,” Zelensky is quoted as saying.

I think Ukraine needs to chalk this war off as a loss and bide their time. The sooner this war ends, the sooner Ukraine can look to the business of joining NATO to hopefully prevent this from happening again.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

Observe wrote: Sat, 4. Nov 23, 19:41
chew-ie wrote: Fri, 3. Nov 23, 12:48I'd say it is the time all the commitment is on trial and has to stay strong - otherwise all the previous investments were useless.
Perhaps those investments were useless? Ukraine has retaken a mere sliver of land since last summer and Russia still occupies nearly 20% of the land that they've stolen since the 2022 invasion. That doesn't include Crimea, which Ukraine might as well forget about altogether for now.
Those investments were far from "useless". Without them, Russia would've roflstomped Ukraine and took over the whole country. With them, Ukraine was and is capable of giving Russia a pause. So much pause that the russians have to turtle down in the occupied areas. Without those investements, Russia wouldn't have feared a counter attack that hard that they put down a ridiculous amout of mines.

And the investments go on - as no real partner drops the other by the first signs of trouble.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Russia is back on the offensive, is it a smart move? Now that Ukraine is defending again, Russia's casualties are spiking to horrendous losses (soldiers and equipment). They want to take Avdiivka, and it looks like they will pay the same price that they paid at Bakhmut. We know that they don't care about soldiers but what about the vehicles? The old buckets that they're moving out of storage are vulnerable to practically everything in the battlefield. As someone pointed out you can use them as static cannons but that's only if you're defending, right? It seems they're back to throwing as much as they can at the Ukrainians hoping they'll run out of ammo but, there are probably more Javelins in Ukraine than Russia has tanks.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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notaterran wrote: Sat, 4. Nov 23, 22:26It seems they're back to throwing as much as they can at the Ukrainians hoping they'll run out of ammo but, there are probably more Javelins in Ukraine than Russia has tanks.
I wouldn't be so confident. Russia has not been idle There is evidence that they continue to ramp up weapons production, as we would expect them to do. And they are not without allies. North Korea is shipping vast amounts of ammunition to Russia. Iran is sending drones and missiles. Ukraine allies cannot keep up with the demand and continue to lag behind supply commitments. On top of that, there is the situation in the Middle East, which is diverting attention and fears.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Observe wrote: Sat, 4. Nov 23, 19:41
chew-ie wrote: Fri, 3. Nov 23, 12:48I'd say it is the time all the commitment is on trial and has to stay strong - otherwise all the previous investments were useless.
Perhaps those investments were useless? Ukraine has retaken a mere sliver of land since last summer and Russia still occupies nearly 20% of the land that they've stolen since the 2022 invasion. That doesn't include Crimea, which Ukraine might as well forget about altogether for now.
I don't agree on the math. In the last year, or since the invasion the Ukraine had retaken territory that stretched all the way to Kyiv.

Crimea will switch sides in near future I think.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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fiksal wrote: Sun, 5. Nov 23, 00:24Crimea will switch sides in near future I think.
That would be something if they did. I have wondered what the sentiment is among Crimeans and whether being bombed by Ukraine has strengthened their loyalty to Russia?
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Observe wrote: Sun, 5. Nov 23, 00:46
fiksal wrote: Sun, 5. Nov 23, 00:24Crimea will switch sides in near future I think.
That would be something if they did. I have wondered what the sentiment is among Crimeans and whether being bombed by Ukraine has strengthened their loyalty to Russia?
I can only guess since I have nothing to check against

but, some observations

in the times after the occupation by Russia, Crimeans showed no specific loyalty to neither Ukraine or Russia. They were as indifferent to politics, almost as Russians. Except for the minority that quickly saw that's not going to go well for them. And it didn't. I mean the Crimean Tatars.

So, Russia isn't ready for fighting in Crimea. Ukraine can increase hits on military targets and the bridge until Crimea is locked again.

Then I have strong suspicion Crimeans will follow Ukraine's lead.

Ukraine can only screw it up if it starts bombing civilians, terror bombing Russian style, which hasn't been the case so far.

Some bonuses for Crimea to switch sides: leaving all sanctions behind with little effort, switching to European tourism (long term), bringing more businesses in than Russia could ever do. Not be on the hook for payments after the war is over. Not be under Russian fascism if they care.

Drawback - leave Russian imperialism behind

I hope those are obvious to them
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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EDIT: this was a reply to a deleted post

The time of Russian fascism is ticking towards its end.
Last edited by fiksal on Sun, 5. Nov 23, 15:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Another ship destroyed (Kalibr cruise missile carrier) and the shipyard damaged.

https://news.yahoo.com/russian-defence- ... 05702.html

Ukraine broke some of it's records recently in terms of artillery destruction and stuff. Russia's losing a lot of stuff not just people.

Germany confirms support for Ukraine at least until 2032.

Ukraines also been getting weapons not approved by congress.

There's still the 300 billion + in seized assets + a long back log of deliveries.

Allied countries do need to step up production a lot. If not just to beef up allies and replace stockpiles.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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till 2032? That's pretty cool of them, thanks Germany
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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burger1 wrote: Sun, 5. Nov 23, 08:41Ukraines also been getting weapons not approved by congress.
I heard somewhere (I think it was an interview) that not everything that Ukraine's been getting has been made public. Do you think that Western countries have been testing weapons in Ukraine against Russia, launching a prototype here and there? Officially, a lot of what was sent to Ukraine was equipment that was almost ready to be decommissioned.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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unlikely it hasn't been approved, because Congress either approves or gives permissions to use

however, not all that's approved is also public, because why tell your enemy, like with ATACAMs
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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-1 warship not too far from crimean bridge. More interesting things to come it seems
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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fiksal wrote: Wed, 8. Nov 23, 03:28 -1 warship not too far from crimean bridge. More interesting things to come it seems
Good to see there is almost no air defense - 3 missiles hit the ship in a very short succession.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Let's be clear, this is an absolute loss for Putin, in the framework that he himself placed.

EU was discussed before the invasion, and one of the talking points of Ukrainians "betrayal"

This is also why Ukraine can't sign any peace treaty and give out any territory or any people to the ethnic cleansing, because Putin will never let Ukraine ask for EU membership.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67354323
Ukraine gets European Commission backing for talks on Ukraine membership

The European Commission has recommended that formal talks should begin with Ukraine on joining the European Union.

The step takes Kyiv closer to the coveted prize of EU membership, five months after the 27 member states gave it candidate status.

Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen praised its "excellent progress, even as it's fighting an existential war."

She said talks should also start with Moldova and that Georgia should become a candidate, if it passed reforms.

Moldova and Ukraine applied for membership in the weeks after Russia invaded Ukraine and both became candidates in June. Georgia was passed over for candidate status at the time.

President Volodymyr Zelensky described the European Commission report as "historic" and said it was an important day.

Ms von der Leyen said Ukraine had completed "well over 90% of the necessary reforms" that the EU set out last year, adding that "the goal is truly within reach".

It was also a day to celebrate in Georgia, she said. The government in Tbilisi is seen as having made sufficient progress on gender equality, fighting violence against women and organised crime.

A final decision on the recommendations will be made by the EU's member states at their December summit.

But the devil to reaching the goal of membership is in the detail.

EU accession talks are a slalom of technicalities and caveats and they tend to be painstakingly slow. Candidate countries need to meet extensive legal and economic criteria to join.

"Just because you are granted candidate status, it doesn't mean you will join the EU tomorrow," said an EU diplomat.

The entire process normally takes about a decade, but can take longer than that.

"The Western Balkans are the best example of how slow, tricky and inefficient the process can be," said Tina Akhvlediani of the Centre for European Policy Studies.

Each enlargement decision requires the backing of all 27 EU members, and any country can block negotiations at any stage, often due to bilateral disputes.

"It can be because of ethnic identities, cultural differences, even the name of the country. Greece demanded that Macedonia change its name to North Macedonia," said Ms Akhvlediani.

The European Commission report, released on Wednesday, however recommends that Ukraine needs to:

further reform the way constitutional judges are selected
introduce tougher action against corruption and money laundering
and adopt new laws to curb the influence of the country's powerful businessmen, known as oligarchs.
"Ukraine has had massive issues with corruption, and it needs to do more to carry out judicial reform - which is relatively fundamental stuff," said Tina Akhvlediani.

just in that article alone, you can also guess not so secret Russian targets for the next war
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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That is all well and good but do we really want Ukraine, Georgia and especially Moldova(!!?) in the EU for the sake of giving Russia a slap on the back?

To be clear, I have no idea about the current state of Ukraine. I just fear that our politicians are making the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons, causing possible long term negative effects because it makes them feel ethical good.

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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Tamina wrote: Fri, 10. Nov 23, 17:51 That is all well and good but do we really want Ukraine, Georgia and especially Moldova(!!?) in the EU for the sake of giving Russia a slap on the back?

To be clear, I have no idea about the current state of Ukraine. I just fear that our politicians are making the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons, causing possible long term negative effects because it makes them feel ethical good.
To be honest, I have no idea on what is the vision of EU these days so it is bit hard to say either way.
But I also disagree vehemently against anyone claiming EU politicians are doing anything just "because it makes them feel ethically good" from where I stand. It is more like total lack of integrity and focus on short-term interests.

Equally I would say that talk about further EU enlargement is just that - empty talk... Orban and whatever passes for Slovak leader will stall any talks in short term and EU farmers, fearing for their largess they receive from tax payers, will fear huge food production capacity of a country like Ukraine in long term. And then there is a war going on.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Tamina wrote: Fri, 10. Nov 23, 17:51 That is all well and good but do we really want Ukraine, Georgia and especially Moldova(!!?) in the EU for the sake of giving Russia a slap on the back?

To be clear, I have no idea about the current state of Ukraine. I just fear that our politicians are making the wrong decisions for the wrong reasons, causing possible long term negative effects because it makes them feel ethical good.
for Ukraine it'd be a plus, openning up more markets, trades, etc.

for EU, I dont know, what is your vision as the inhabitant of EU?

to me EU always seemed like an interesting idea, increase trade, freedom of movement, where a country can be small but part of the economical and social jugernaut.

procedure wise, it seems someone is checking Ukraine's situation and is listing things that need to be improved. All good things it seems from the brief article. It also clarifies that such changes take a long time, so I'd assume further if requirements are satisfied Ukraine should fit into EU. Are there are other reason why it may not?
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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Minus 2 more ships (fast landing craft) + btrs they were carrying. Russia only has 1 salvaging ship in the area maybe they should sink it? The ~110 year old Kommuna from 1915.

More Russian factories exploded.

Coke plant in Avdiivka might determine some of Ukraine's ability to hold Avdiivka before the wet season. Over 1000 Russians killed today.

Wet season might have started. Some rain later on. https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ua/14 ... a/avdiivka

Ukraine aid from EU and US still pending. Hungary and US Republicans being a pain.

Hungary likely to try to block Ukraine EU process.

Hungary and Turkey still messing around with Sweden's NATO approval.
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Re: Russia-Ukraine War

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burger1 wrote: Sat, 11. Nov 23, 09:55Ukraine aid from EU and US still pending. Hungary and US Republicans being a pain.
It's not just Republicans. The majority of Americans are opposed to additional funding of the Ukraine war. It's not just Hungary either. International support has been waning for some time.
burger1 wrote: Sat, 11. Nov 23, 09:55Hungary likely to try to block Ukraine EU process.
Ukraine doesn't qualify for EU membership. One of the criteria for membership, is a stable economy. Also, corruption remains an issue with Ukraine for EU membership as it does for joining NATO. Bottom line: as long as the war rages, Ukraine should not even be thinking about EU or NATO. If/when Ukraine is no longer at war and they take care of some internal problems, then they may have something to offer the EU and NATO.

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