Russia-Ukraine War

[Observe]

I worry that war crimes are disappearing quickly from the news, whether it's Russia bombing a supermarket, Israel bombing a refugee camp and many more atrocities. I wonder if becoming numb to all of this will become the new normal.

People blowing each other up, is old hat and gets boring after a while. The 'news' media is mainly interested in attention-grabbing shock value and just as in video games, people tire of the current game and crave for the next war/scandal/outrage/carnage. For most people, the war in Ukraine/Israel/wherever, is not part of their direct personal day-to-day experience, but rather just a temporary distraction from their own lives of quiet desperation.

[Tamina]

The news could continue to write and report about topics noone is interested in but that wouldn't change anything, wouldn't it?

[Observe]

The news could continue to write and report about topics noone is interested in but that wouldn't change anything, wouldn't it?

Well, it would change the news companies from being profitable to not. The news media, is not there to provide news. They are there to provide a feeding frenzy of disgust and distrust, served with a liberal dose of fear and hopelessness. Those base emotions, are the bread and butter of news and entertainment.

[burger1]

Netherlands providing ~$2.7b usd in aid to Ukraine.

EU ~$54.6b usd looks like it might proceed now after a payout to Hungary.

The European Union is moving ahead with a proposal to tax profits from more than €200 billion ($218 billion) of frozen Russian central bank assets to aid Ukraine’s reconstruction despite concerns from several member nations.

https://news.yahoo.com/eu-aims-unveil-p ... 00519.html

Most of the protections from the Kerch bridge got washed away in the storm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=djdVRnhCpH0

Democrats seem to be countering the argument against providing aid to Ukraine by showing which areas economies have benefited from it and where investments in new production have been made. Not sure if they have done a future benefits analysis. US economy grew by 5.2% in the 3rd quarter.

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/11/2 ... d-00129068

[fiksal]

again with kidnappings, dictators apparently can't stay away from children

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wi ... -105319428

The International Red Cross has suspended the Belarusian chapter after its chief stirred international outrage for boasting that it was actively ferrying Ukrainian children from Russian-controlled areas to Belarus

...

More than 2,400 Ukrainian children aged 6-17 have been brought to Belarus from four Ukrainian regions that have been partially occupied by Russian forces, according to a recent study by Yale University. The Belarusian opposition is seeking an international probe into the effort and says Lukashenko and his officials should be held accountable for it.

[Observe]

again with kidnappings, dictators apparently can't stay away from children

Why do they want children? Seems like kidnapped children would be nothing but a pain in the ass. What use are they to the "dictators" that would make it worth the hassle?

[mr.WHO]

again with kidnappings, dictators apparently can't stay away from children

Why do they want children? Seems like kidnapped children would be nothing but a pain in the ass. What use are they to the "dictators" that would make it worth the hassle?

Janissaries.

Ottomans, Mongols and Tatars used them a lot - Russia sure loves to look back at history and take the worst takes and wrong lessons.


Crawling demographic collapse is also another reason.

[Observe]

Janissaries. Ottomans, Mongols and Tatars used them a lot - Russia sure loves to look back at history and take the worst takes and wrong lessons.

Child soldiers? That doesn't make sense to me.

Crawling demographic collapse is also another reason.

That seems more plausible. Brainwash the Ukrainian children, then return them to Ukraine with thoughts that Russia is right and Ukraine is wrong for embracing the evil West who's mission is to destroy Russia using the blood of Ukrainians.

[mr.WHO]

Child soldiers? That doesn't make sense to me.

Make all the sense for the next war in 5-10-15 years.

[fiksal]

Russian state TV occasionally hammers a point that the Ukrainians need to be reminded that they are Russians or else. Even children should be erased if they fail to get re-educated. (I can find the source if you like)

Add to that, on Donbass, for a couple years now they have been trying to resurrect their version of pioneers youth. No idea how successful that is.

And in Russia there have been heavy editing history books. With accent on patriotism, nationalism and exceptionalism as the main take aways from the history books.

Looks to me like Russia is in full swing to train the new generation that doesn't remember Ukrainians and is ready to fight and die faster.

The 10-20 years time might match future wars with Eastern Europe

[mr.WHO]

Some footage from Avdiivka:
https://youtu.be/07p9UTM4JbI?si=V6-KPy-IfbkQRrCE&t=163

My first thought when I saw this - Christ, it's a tower defence game, but in real life.

[burger1]

A drone assault on the Kerch bridge might have failed.

Some trains blown up. One inside a tunnel. Oil depot and factory blown up in Russia also. Air base hit in Crimea within the last few days.

Venezuelian vote to annex Guyana was apparently successful with ~50% voter turn out and 90% - 95% approval despite videos showing hardly any voters turning out. Seems a little bit suspicious.

[fiksal]

Some footage from Avdiivka:
https://youtu.be/07p9UTM4JbI?si=V6-KPy-IfbkQRrCE&t=163

My first thought when I saw this - Christ, it's a tower defence game, but in real life.

by Russians service men own admissions, they are just throwing bodies at this, at random.

[Observe]

As US and EU funding collapses, the mood in Kyiv becomes more desperate. Zelensky abruptly cancelled a virtual meeting with US lawmakers yesterday. Also, plans for Ukraine to join the EU are in doubt and the much ballyhooed spring offensive has proven to be a paper tiger. Meanwhile, Russia, with far greater resources and manpower than Ukraine can ever match, has time on its side. Peace anyone?

It's pretty obvious, that Ukraine will have to give up on dreams of reclaiming Crimea and also most of the other areas that Russia has taken - many of which didn't want to be part of Ukraine in the first place. The matter of Ukraine joining NATO is a moot point at this stage, because Ukraine does not qualify to be a member until fighting ceases and Ukraine takes care of internal issues preventing its acceptance.

If all of that sounds a bit bleak, it's because it is. The argument that we must support Ukraine, because they are protecting the rest of the world from Russian aggression, is falling on increasingly deaf ears.

[burger1]

Zelensky cancelled the virtual meeting because the Republicans walked out.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1l5QG3

Ukraines still getting aid from individual countries and some have increased their aid packages to offset the potential short fall.

December 15, 2023 is about when US congress goes on Xmas break. Might see some negotiating. Republicans are very untrustworthy so need to watch what they do vs what they say.

[Observe]

Zelensky cancelled the virtual meeting because the Republicans walked out.

That is because the sun doesn't rise and set on Ukraine alone and the US has pressing domestic concerns that are being neglected. The US is out of money and Democrats borrowing more from China to support Ukraine doesn't make sense.

Ukraines still getting aid from individual countries and some have increased their aid packages to offset the potential short fall.

Let's be realistic. No amount of aid from other countries will make up for the loss of US weapons and assistance. Besides, many other countries are in disarray over continued funding as well. On top of that, the political winds are shifting toward right-leaning Nationalist governments in Europe and elsewhere. That doesn't bode well at all for Ukraine.

December 15, 2023 is about when US congress goes on Xmas break. Might see some negotiating. Republicans are very untrustworthy so need to watch what they do vs what they say.

I would say that both Republicans and Democrats are unreliable and it's hard to say what they will do at the end of the day. Nevertheless, the Ukraine cause is suffering while Western politicians jockey for their favored positions.

[burger1]

Ukraine got a small aid package from the US today. 175m-200m that includes a variety (himars, radar seeking) of missiles and other stuff.

[fiksal]

Peace anyone?

Anyone indeed?

Last I checked Russia isn't interested in peace, so I am not sure who to make this deal with.

Ethnic cleansing is still on the table though - who wants to negotiate to that? How do you negotiate where it's okay?

It appears commentators are leaning more to all out war, if that's even possible, than what it is now, if funding finishes.

I can see some of it possible. Ukraine had stayed from less careful attacks on the Russian soil, that can change. Russians still don't feel that there's war, that just have to change.

Ukraine didn't explode any pipelines that are within its reach, and apparently there are many, that should change. I guess the fear right now is to sour relations with countries that use them. Which wouldn't be the case if there's no funding.

Ukraine is producing more weapons now so they can stay afloat it seems on their own in part, while Russia is reusing old and broken tech, moving towards cheaper stuff. Good news if this continues.

I don't see how Russian army is present for this war, it seems the resources are already thin on people interested in dying.

Not too mention impeding crisis in every area of Russian life and demographics. Not that they see it as crisis mind you.

So what Russia can do to escalate if that happens? Nothing, between Butcha and evening else, this is it. Only nuclear weapons remain that may or many not fly. And if that goes, the fascism in Russia at least will meet a fitting end.

What's else...

I wonder if nuclear plants in Russia can be sabotaged?

[Falcrack]

Observe is all doom and gloom regarding Ukraine (or maybe he wants Russia to win, who knows). I admit right now there is cause for concern. There was cause for concern from the start. But I remain optimistic about Ukraine's prospects, if not in the near term, then in the long term. As long as Ukraine refuses to concede, Russia cannot possibly win. There will always be those willing to support their cause as long as they retain the will to fight for it.

We should ask ourselves, what is this war about? For Ukraine, it is about survival, and also about freedom. The freedom of self-determination. Any peace deal Russia would be willing to accept right now would provide Ukraine with neither. They would be forced to either direct rule by Russia, or de facto rule by puppets loyal to the Kremlin.

For Russia, this war is about conquest, about putting the lands and people of Ukraine under their control. It is naked aggression. Weak excuses about how some of the people in Crimea or the Donbass wanted to be part of Russia fall apart when you consider that Russia never gave them a choice, they manufactured this "civil war" from day one. Absent direct Russian intervention, there would have been no civil war in Ukraine. Russia is wholly responsible for this war.

Is freedom worth fighting and even dying for? We live lives of comfort, peace, and security now because our ancestors thought it was. If we do not oppose evil now (and what Russia is doing right now is absolutely evil, moral relativism be damned), then we will be forced to face it later when it is on our doorstep. Only then, it will be stronger and far more difficult to defeat.

Is the freedom of strangers we have never met important? If we decide the freedom of our brothers and sisters on the other side of the planet is unimportant and we would rather focus on making ourselves comfortable, the day will inevitably come when our own freedoms are threatened. And who will stand up for us then?

[fiksal]

Oh I am optimistic myself. Not that this war will end soon, but it will end.

I am not optimistic that Russia will exist at the end, but I think Ukraine will.

West should be preparing for that