Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

This weekend there are elections in Taiwan and pro-independence candidate has highest chance to will.
We might see "Special Operation 2.0 Pacific edition" soon.

For sake of all of us, I hope this comment age badly.

Edit:

so pro-independence candidate has won:
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-asia-67954619

Aparently the two weather windows for invasion are April and October.

2024 will be as interesting as previous years...sh*t.

[fiksal]

Good for them!

Looking at the recent history though, when was the last time China took territory by force? Not sure I can pin point. It seems they value their exports much more than Russia does.

Maybe I am just an optimist

found this list
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Territo ... c_of_China

didn't know Tadjikistan border was changed

[Falcrack]

It makes no sense for China to invade Taiwan. They don't need the people, with more than a billion people of their own. Invading would isolate China from the West and wreck all current and future trade prospects. A cross strait invasion would make the Normandy invasion look like a cake walk.

And yet, I still think China will go for it. Because they are motivated by pride and hubris, which have an incredible capacity to shut down rational thought.

[mr.WHO]

and I keep saying that same arguments were spoken just before Russian-Ukraine war, yet we are whare we are.

People should stop follow the fallacy of resonable/sane actors.

Everything what we say about Putin/Russia can be 1:1 said about Xi/China.

I especially laught at people who spew that China is patient and playing long game, while keep ignoring that China did NONE of this in last 300 years and especially in last 100 years.

People keep complaining that democracies have attention span of 4/5 year between election, yet it seem like both Russia and China are constantly running in crisis mode even more frequent that the West.
Just like it was easy for Putin to go for Ukraine war as a distraction/consolidation, EXACTLY the same will be for Xi and Taiwan.

Economic stagnation, high youth unemployment, huge real estate bubble to name a few - it will be more and more tempting to solve it with war.

Russia is mentally still in 19th century imperialism and colonialism. God only know where China is mentally, coz it's definetly not 21st century.

Unless we see serious attempts to depose Xi, the war is pretty much guarantee.

[Tamina]

Taiwans economy and their jobs are mostly tied to business relations with China. Don't overestimate Taiwans populations anti-China stance. While a lot are for political independence, economically they are not and a lot of people also see a benefit of getting even closer to China.
A small reality check: Only 40% voted for independence and the China Nationalists party now holds the majority in the parliament with 52 to 51 seats.

It makes no sense for China to invade Taiwan. They don't need the people, with more than a billion people of their own. Invading would isolate China from the West and wreck all current and future trade prospects.

You mean so insignificant that the US government, in all its selflessness, has been trying with all its might for years to tie Taiwan's economy to that of the USA. And is prepared to provoke a direct military confrontation with China by sending aircraft carriers.

[mr.WHO]

We'll see how the situation develops in coming months - I think October is more likely than April as it gives China several months to prepare and month before US election, when polarization will reach the peak.
Past that term, then chances for invasion drop rapidly over time.


As for going back to Russia-Ukraine war:

Seem like good old Bradley still has it in it, aka smaking the living sh*t out of Russia made tanks.

Funny fact:
Russia tends to overspec the capabilities of their stuff
The West tend to believe this
The West build stuff to beat "overspec" Russian stuff
The West tend to underspec their stuff (it's too old, it's already obsolete for modern battlefield)

The battlefield:
https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/sta ... 4845815034


Same with the old and obsolete AT munition for Leopards 2A4.
Aparently it goes through T-90M like through butter.
Both Germans and French hate it, coz they poured billions into new super powerful 130mm guns for next generation tanks, while there is nothing in Russia that would require it
The next generation tanks might be like F-22 that they won't meet their peer in their lifetime.

[burger1]

Rumour Ukraine might have shot down a Russian awac plane?

US still hasn't resumed official aid to Ukraine since they came back from their break on January 9, 2024.

[mr.WHO]

Rumour Ukraine might have shot down a Russian awac plane?

Rumors say it was Patriot, but I don't buy it!

Ukrainians would have to move it danger close to the frontlines, while Russians would have to fly dangeroursly close as well.
I think it's more likely some F-16 already fighting or Ukrainians integrated more long range goodies on their heavy planes like SU-27.

[notaterran]

Rumour Ukraine might have shot down a Russian awac plane?

Even if Russia were in full war economy mode I wonder how quickly they could build another one. Those things are expensive!

[burger1]

EU is voting this week on removing Hungary's voting privileges. If successful Hungary won't be able to vote to block Ukraine aid.

https://news.yahoo.com/european-parliam ... 25116.html

From article:

"On Thursday (Jan. 18), we will be voting on a joint motion resolution, negotiated this morning with five political groups in the parliament."

The resolution calls on the European Council to strip Hungary of its voting rights under Article 7.2 of the EU treaty, which stipulates the option to suspend a member's voting rights in case of a "serious and persistent breach."

[Observe]

EU is voting this week on removing Hungary's voting privileges. If successful Hungary won't be able to vote to block Ukraine aid.

I don't see this happening. What's the point of voting, if removal of voting privileges is the outcome of voting against the majority? What to do if/when other EU countries also express hesitancy? Remove their voting privileges too?

Everything on the world stage is time-dependent. There is/was a window of time for helping Ukraine, before fatigue sets in and attention wavers. We are already seeing that happening in Europe and certainly in the US.

Meanwhile, it seems that Russia has no problem maintaining their stockpile of missiles, bombs, drones etc. I only hope that Ukraine seriously seeks peace negotiations, before the money spigot runs dry and Russia mounts a new push to take the whole country, with the rest of the world watching with their war-bleary bankrupt eyes.

[mr.WHO]

Meanwhile, it seems that Russia has no problem maintaining their stockpile of missiles, bombs, drones etc. I only hope that Ukraine seriously seeks peace negotiations, before the money spigot runs dry and Russia mounts a new push to take the whole country, with the rest of the world watching with their war-bleary bankrupt eyes.

Sure, that's why they have to beg North Korea for expired artillery shells and Iran for cheap drones.
That's also why they don't do mass artillery barrage for over a year.
That's also why they had to prepare for half a year cruise missile stockpile to launch "grand barrage" for a few days just after Christmas.
That's also why for whole 2024 they had net territory gain of amazing 50 square kilometers.
That's also why it took them 10 years (including 2 years of full scale war) to take Marinka village.
That's also all according to plan and Putin grandiose trap that Adivka still holds despite beign already 6 months after like 5th deadline to take it.
That's also why several districts in Moscow don't have heating and electricity in a middle of freezing winter, second year in a row.


There is a lot of cracks poping out this year.

[chew-ie]

Tell me why's - tell me sweet sweet why's.

[fiksal]

I admire Ukrainians quite a bit.

Interviews I have seen, they will not forget what happened, they will seek peace through complete victory. That's very important for victory. Russia had lost fights like this before.

They want peace, and holding Russia responsible. Russia only wants war. Observe, you should know better by now.

Ukrainians don't need a flashy victory, that the West naively expects, they will win with sabotage, partisans and they will make Russian army run out of those who are willing to die.

It seems we are already seeing this, as Russians are killing each other now.

Full year, Russia lost every battle and lost conquered territory.

Russia is falling apart literally. There will be more frozen pipes, more electrical grid failures, more falling planes and that's before Ukraine actually hits them. More cities in Russia will be hit either by friendly fire or not

As for Hungary, they should be allowed to surrender to Russia.

[notaterran]

That's also why several districts in Moscow don't have heating and electricity in a middle of freezing winter, second year in a row.

More Russians getting a very small taste of what their glorious leader has caused in Ukraine. May winter of 2024 - 2025 be absolute hell for Russia.

[mr.WHO]

As for Hungary, they should be allowed to surrender to Russia.

A bit of political-fictions, but Hungary and Ukraine should swap places
Hungarians would be closer to their ancient homelands and to their beloved Russia.
Ukraine wouldn't mind being closer to Europe and further away from Russia as well.

Everybody would be happy...at least untill Hungarians learn back what does it mean living next to Russia

[mr.WHO]

Iran and Pakistan traded missile strikes at eachother last two days.
Kinda like North Korea shelling South Korea island a week ago.

There seems to me a rise of conflicts around both US and Russia proxies - are we in sneaky WW3 already?

[burger1]

Jordan also struck Syria.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/su ... r-AA1naAD1

Yemen wants aid to attack targets in rebel controlled Yemen.

I guess this clears the way to suspend Hungary's voting rights?

https://news.yahoo.com/european-parliam ... 27047.html

from article

The resolution, supported by 345 MEPs with 104 voting against and 29 abstaining, calls on the European Council to examine whether Hungary is committing a "serious and persistent breach" of the bloc's values under Article 7.2 of the EU treaty.

Aid from the US stalled again? Republicans want their new house speaker removed?

[Observe]

Aid from the US stalled again?

CNN article: 'Grim realization sets in over state of Ukraine war as funding fight continues in Washington'.

This is an election year and Biden won't gain any votes with the American people by giving more money to Ukraine. To the contrary. In the highly probable event that Trump wins, additional funding for Ukraine will likely no longer be in the cards at all.

On top of that, Trump has made it pretty clear that he wants the US to pull out of NATO altogether. Trump or not, this is looking more and more like it will become a war for Europeans with a crumbling coalition and with the US withdrawing to the sidelines.

Then there is the troop shortage situation:

“The mobilization of an additional 450,000 to 500,000 people will cost Ukraine 500 billion hryvnia [$13 billion] and I would like to know where the money will come from,” Zelenskyy said. “Considering that it takes six Ukrainian working civilians paying taxes to pay the salary of one soldier, I would need to get 3 million more working people somewhere to be able to pay for the additional troops.”

By the way, none of the above is derived from Russian propaganda, or from shady pro-Russian sources.

[burger1]

Trump technically can't pull out of NATO with out a lot of support he's unlikely to get.


https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/congress- ... -1.7059768

Pretty sure they will get the extra troops. $26,000 / troop isn't bad. Ukraine might have more issues with equipment availability vs funding. Ukraine should still be able to recruit internationally. Could do a variety of things.