Russia-Ukraine War

[EGO_Aut]

It doesn't matter what propaganda RU or UKR spreads, in the end both will meet in the middle, I would bet on summer...

[burger1]

It doesn't matter what propaganda RU or UKR spreads, in the end both will meet in the middle, I would bet on summer...

That's unlikely. Russia is/has killed tortured, imprisoned too many Ukrainians. Russia's unlikely to stop and Ukraine's unlikely just ready to surrender and give up on the people Russia has taken.

Ukraines blown up another boat that 100% sank. 50-80m, ~40 crew and missiles, etc...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2 ... 946cbf5b0c

Some Russian top ranking officials still haven't shown up after not being blown up.

[fiksal]

It doesn't matter what propaganda RU or UKR spreads, in the end both will meet in the middle, I would bet on summer...

what's the middle of ethnic cleansing and stealing kids?
what's the middle of Ukraine is not a state and Ukrainians not people?

half ethnic cleansing, stealing only half of children, only half of Ukraine "gets" to be a State for two more years and that's all?


if let's say the 3rd term president Trump tells Putin that he won, which Putin proclaimed 2 yrs ago, why would a victor give up any of points above? It doesn't make sense to me and certainly if I were Putin

[mr.WHO]

half ethnic cleansing, stealing only half of children, only half of Ukraine "gets" to be a State for two more years and that's all?

That's how Russia works.

After Polish-Russo war in 1920, 1/3 of Polish territory left under Russia, 3 milion Poles left there were genocided one way or another.

Same post-WW2 with Curzon Line - except this time, it was a bit more lenient with Russia taking Eastern Poland, but giving Western Poland:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Curzon_Line

Most of Poles were exiled from East to West...but those who didn't made into "most" were genocide as usual.

[fiksal]

yep, those that don't learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

already repeating it in fact

about Poland, I wasn't quite familiar where that line was.
Does that make Lviv a Polish city?

[mr.WHO]

Does that make Lviv a Polish city?

Depend on what context you're asking.
Between WW1 and WW2 Lwow was majority Polish, while surrounding rural areas were majority Ukrainian.

Obviously after WW2 soviets did some ethnic cleansing, so now it's no longer Lwow, but Lviv with 99,99% Ukrainian population.

On wider historical context Lviv started as Kiev Rus city, burned down several times by Mongols then recolonized by Poles, then retaken by Cossacs rebelion, then retaken by Poles after WW1, then claimed by Soviets and ending up back with Ukraine who is successor of Kiev Rus.

Interesting fact, is that many people exiled from Lwow after WW2, settle in Wroclaw (former German Breslau) with basically same complicated history.

Long story short, in present day we treat Lwow/Lviv, like Germans treat Breslau/Wroclaw - a place with a lot of our historical heritage and nice tourist destination, especially for older people who used to live there.

[fiksal]

I see, good overview


---
@Observe, @EGO_Aut

on another topic, let's play the role playing game before the war is over

I will play the part of a Russian ambassador or a lawyer representing Russia. I was called to a country for peace talks about the special military operation.

Who do I meet there at this meeting? Who is playing who?

[mr.WHO]

It doesn't matter what propaganda RU or UKR spreads, in the end both will meet in the middle, I would bet on summer...

Nah, both side still have enough of fuel to keep this going for 2-3 years at minimum.

Ukraine secured funding, still gets Western-tech and starts to get Soviet-tech from more and more exotic places (many which supoose to be pro-Russia aligned).
Both EU and US gradually crank up amunition and equipment production to war time levels.
Ukraine adjust it's tactics to further cut down personel losses by pushing drone warfare everywhere possible - it's highly likely that by the next year, Ukraine will have th most dronized army in the world.
There is still 300 bilion of Russian frozen assets, that can easily fund the entire war effort for at least 3 years.


In the same time Russia got emergency supply from Iran and North Korea, plus I bet that eventually, China would love to dispose huge amounts of their old stuff as well.

Both are unable to accumulate critical mass for major breakthrough.
Both are now hellbent on building multi-layered WW1 defense lines everywhere possible.
It's WW1 back again, except the tank has been already invented and no longer effective in breaking trench lines...
...until someone start to mass deploy drone tanks.

Ukraine is already testing multiple types of land drones, like tanks, IFV and minesweepers...
...while Russia experiments with BMP1/T-62 loaded with explosives and put on full throttle towards trench line.


Yep, still 2-3 years minimum.

[EGO_Aut]

@fiksal:

Trump to Putin: Let's end it and keep the borders as they are. The EU pays for the reconstruction of the W-UKR, and us for military security.

Trump to Zelenskiy: The war is over, RU has been economically stunted for 25 years, and will collapse within the next 10.

Trump to Leyen: The new enemy is China. The big goal of bringing NATO closer to RU and RU economically far away from the EU has been fulfilled.

[fiksal]

Yep, still 2-3 years minimum.

Not sure Russia has 2-3 years.

So far not giving Russia passed end of 2024. Let's see if this year shows the elements of the collapse.

@fiksal:

Trump to Putin: Let's end it and keep the borders as they are. The EU pays for the reconstruction of the W-UKR, and us for military security.

Roleplaying as Kremlin lawyer:

Russia's objectives remain same as in the beginning of the special oppression. It's not about the borders, it's about denazification of Ukraine, freeing Russian people and freeing from being vassal state of the United States.

We think President Trump understands that Russia has the historic claim to this land.

Russia can start discussing terms of the guarantee that Ukraine will never be in EU and NATO. Military aid is out of question. Rebuilding using Western money is an idea worth discussing. We agree the blame for the destruction largely lays with US backed Nazis



Note from myself, the Trump offer above proposes ethnic cleansing to half of the Ukraine. To keep in mind when continuing this

[Observe]

on another topic, let's play the role playing game before the war is over

We have to consider the current status of the war in the context of the expression 'to the victor go the spoils'. At this point, Russia has taken a large swath of Ukraine, along with Crimea. Ukraine is demonstrably unable to reclaim that lost land and it is looking unlikely that they will be able to do so.

So, one wonders, what would it take to get Russia to stop? Putting aside the Nazi allegation, I suspect Russia would agree to Ukraine being neutral with regard to any military (NATO) or economic (EU) alliances. That's non-negotiable. So, what is negotiable? The occupied land excluding Crimea. Or is it? If Russia has Crimea, they also want a land bridge to Russia, which means they would need to keep at least some of what they've taken.

Based on the above, for role-playing sake, as the Ukraine ambassador approaching peace talks with you, the Russian ambassador, my presentation is: Russia keeps Crimea, but gives the rest back and Ukraine agrees never to join NATO or any other military alliance. Russia contributes to reconstruction costs.

Short of that, I don't see that Russia has any incentive to cease the invasion. Right now, Ukraine is barely hanging on, with severe exhaustion and desperation. Sure, the war could slug on for years, but to what eventual avail and at what cost? I know there are those who hold out hope that Russia will somehow collapse from within. I leave it to them to weigh that possibility. I have no idea how the Russia people view this war, or what realistically would happen if Putin was no longer a part of the picture.

There are visions of Ukraine holding out long enough, to assemble a million drone unmanned aerial and land assault to decimate the Russians inside and out. Trouble is, Russia has the same idea. It is a foregone conclusion, that the US and EU are loosing their appetite for this war and as more nations adopt a right-wing nationalist anti-global order position, the world will sink into increased disorder. We are seeing this happen.

Perhaps doom is all we have to look forward to. It is not hard to see the jigsaw puzzle leading to WW3 falling into place. Even if the Ukraine/Russia war comes to an end, there are multiple pathways to annihilation.

[fiksal]

So, one wonders, what would it take to get Russia to stop?

Now you are asking the right questions, I can give you the straight answer without the roleplay if you like. My answer can only be given in the context of Putin being in power. It's wild west what those negotiations will be with Putin out. A moment I await.

To recall, that Putin is continuing this war not only because he wants to, on the success of the war depends his own survival and legacy. He has no room for the loss, military or diplomatic. His own military and supporters are calling for complete defeat of the Ukraine, since the beginning, and of a military parade in Kyiv.

Based on the above, for role-playing sake, as the Ukraine ambassador approaching peace talks with you, the Russian ambassador, my presentation is: Russia keeps Crimea, but gives the rest back and Ukraine agrees never to join NATO or any other military alliance. Russia contributes to reconstruction costs.

roleplaying wise,

Donbass including Mariupol already voted for joining Russia, that part is done and in the past. Ukraine must leave the Russian lands immediately. Next we could discuss the status of Odessa or save it for later date. We also need to talk about Finland's and Sweden's status in NATO, which are also violations.

Russia will rebuild the Russian land destroyed by Ukrainians.

As for joining NATO and EU, we agree that Ukraine must sign to that, but it's obvious Ukraine is not the one in charge here, thus NATO and EU need to sign to that as well.

Denazification is not negotiable and it's not some buzzword, we have concrete plans for that.

There are some details that were not mentioned yet, which are important to the peace negotiations with the West / US / NATO:
- the illegal court arrest warrant on Putin is removed
- all sanctions are lifted
- all Russian assets released
- all other arrest warrants lifted

However if it's not clear what is negotiable, we can discuss the future of the wester Ukrainian state, excluding Odessa, and its status for the next few years in the future. We must not lose sight of the historical lands of the Russian Empire.

Sure, the war could slug on for years, but to what eventual avail and at what cost?

What cost is too much when ethnic cleansing and genocide is on the table?

[Observe]

What cost is too much when ethnic cleansing and genocide is on the table?

Ethnic cleansing and genocide are commonly a part of war. Stopping the war, is the best first step to halting the genocide. With so many Ukrainian soldiers dying and citizens fleeing the country, Russia is succeeding very well on the ethnic cleansing front.

[fiksal]

What cost is too much when ethnic cleansing and genocide is on the table?

Ethnic cleansing and genocide are commonly a part of war. Stopping the war, is the best first step to halting the genocide. With so many Ukrainian soldiers dying and citizens fleeing the country, Russia is succeeding very well on the ethnic cleansing front.

Yes especially of Russian wars.

Russia never said it would stop after this war however. Who is there to keep in check after any treaty, or will the treaty be just empty words?

current rhetoric is exactly doing that as the privilege of the victor

Crimea recently went though some kind of silencing of minorities, forced citizenship, forfeit of real estate by Ukrainians. Continuing the tradition of replacing locals with Russian immigrants in Crimea.

[fiksal]

I think it's time for the Roleplaying lawyer proposition

We think there's room for compromise, here are our pretty easy terms

- Russia returns back its land, from Donbass to Odessa, to border of Moldova. The rest of territories from the border set in 2022 remain as is. [1]
- New country out of North Western part of Ukraine is formed with the government friendly to Russians. Russia has the veto over any anti Russian elections.
- Zelensky, his top military and his government removed and turned in to Russian courts.
- The West collectively signs to exclude the new Ukraine out of EU and NATO. Also, signs to never supply military aid.
- All sanctions lifted
- All international court rulings toward Russia are removed. No new cases are to be opened related to any post special operation activity.
- Sweden membership to NATO declined. Can be considered later if Russia votes in favor.
- Finland keeps NATO membership in turn

I believe Putin would sign to that


[1] Part as you see is controlled by Ukraine right now. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian ... ia_oblasts

[Observe]

Meanwhile, the US has failed to pass additional Ukraine funding and the EU's 50B is basically nothing as it won't fill the funding gap that Ukraine needs. Then there will be the huge reconstruction costs, which the World Bank estimates at $411 billion and counting. Naturally, Zelenskyy expects the rest of the world to pay for everything.

Even if Ukraine raised the white flag today, it is doubtful that they will find sufficient funding from other countries to repair the war damage and prop up their economy. Zelenskyy needs to face the reality that this war is lost and the longer it goes on, the more difficult it will be to rise from the rubble.

[mr.WHO]

Then there will be the huge reconstruction costs, which the World Bank estimates at $411 billion and counting. Naturally, Zelenskyy expects the rest of the world to pay for everything.

Don't bother thinking about reconstruction when war sill rages on full burn.

Most of reconstruction will be done one way or another by EU, just by integrating and connecting Ukraine economy to EU.
If, Ukraine was able to make proper army to hold second/third world power, while also beign in "falling apart and corrupted" state, then rebuilding the economy post-war will be cakewalk.

The only long-term critical issue for Ukraine will be demography - it could be that post-War Ukraine will have no choice, but to go full "Migrant Welcome* (*except Russians)".
This could actualy end beneficial, as EU is going more and more selective on migrants and might have a number of people to boot in next 5-10 years.
This could be like Rwanda deal, except working and everyone wanting it

[notaterran]

After nearly two years of full-blown war one thing has become crystal clear: Russia will not decide who wins. This war will be decided by the West, especially the U.S. If the U.S. sends Ukraine enough weapons and ammo, Ukraine wins. It's that simple. As others have mentioned, look how much damage a few HIMARS and Patriots have caused. The Russians have adapted somewhat, so now it's time for GLSDB (lots of them). And then F-16s. And so on. Economically and militarily, the differences between Russia and the U.S. are so large they're almost comical.

[Observe]

After nearly two years of full-blown war one thing has become crystal clear: Russia will not decide who wins. This war will be decided by the West, especially the U.S. If the U.S. sends Ukraine enough weapons and ammo, Ukraine wins. It's that simple.

Another thing that has become crystal clear, is that Ukraine isn't going to receive the help it seeks. With a majority of Americans opposed, there simply isn't the sentiment in the US to continue funding this war. I also get the sense that many in the EU are also having second thoughts. So, there is the fantasy and then there is the reality.

[fiksal]

reality is also that no treaty will stop sabotage of pipelines, railroads and refineries in Russia. Plus keep poisoning soldiers by dozens! Large parts of Russia are going to stay unprotected. Nothing is safe. Those Russians that are not fascist are also there to help Ukrainians in that.

Russia can't win that, it can only respond with more brutally which will feed this war further or destabilize Russia further.

just like no treaty will stop the brutality of Russia

and if Ukraine can't take down the Crimea bridge then it'll light everything else on fire. Molotov cocktails are cheap.


Chechnya, Afghanistan, there are wars that show this gap.


Eventually one of Russian generals will say to hell with it and fire on NATO

After nearly two years of full-blown war one thing has become crystal clear: Russia will not decide who wins. This war will be decided by the West, especially the U.S. If the U.S. sends Ukraine enough weapons and ammo, Ukraine wins. It's that simple.

Another thing that has become crystal clear, is that Ukraine isn't going to receive the help it seeks. With a majority of Americans opposed, there simply isn't the sentiment in the US to continue funding this war. I also get the sense that many in the EU are also having second thoughts. So, there is the fantasy and then there is the reality.

is the majority in US opposed? by my count large majority is for. All Democrats, and many Republicans. Ones who oppose are treason party Republicans. They are pro Putin party.

If this translates approximately one to one to people who voted for them, quite the opposite.

also Americans don't feel the effects of the war

Europe then, Britain with a new agreement, France, Poland, actually I think mostly all that matter know what's up.

The problem they fear giving Ukraine a bomb with a large yield. And those are the problem solvers.


Wanna cheaply win the war? Give Ukraine ballistic missiles or bombs with big enough range to down anything they want

surely would be faster war if Ukraine had their nukes

...


I have more fun ideas. Putin likes to play in bs diplomacy. Do it too, - vote to admit Ukraine with the territory it controls now to NATO. Say what it doesn't yet control doesn't invoke article 5. Let Ukraine slowly free the rest. Watch Putin boil.

Hopefully NATO web scraping bots are gathering good ideas