Russia-Ukraine War

[alt3rn1ty]

Anti satellite Nukes!? bit overkill on expense, a guided shotgun could take out fragile satellites. They cant even support their own ongoing war without salvaging chips from washing machines. I call Rusky spin BS.

[mr.WHO]

Anti satellite Nukes!? bit overkill on expense, a guided shotgun could take out fragile satellites. They cant even support their own ongoing war without salvaging chips from washing machines. I call Rusky spin BS.

a guided shotgun can take 1 sattelite.
A few more if you're lucky with debris cascade.

A proper nuke at right altitude can take out 1/3 of all sattelites in low-mid orbit - that's what US found out when they did a few high-atmosphere/space nuclear test in 60s...and proceed to UN to sign a ban on deployment of nukes in space:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starfish_Prime

(check the After effects section)

Russia could take out all of Starlinks with 3 nukes, but they wouldn't be able to take 10% of Starlinks with all conventional ASAT missiles they have.

[alt3rn1ty]

I guess, if it was an EMP bomb with a shaped expanding circular spread of the pulse that could be quite devastating, still sounds a bit ambitious for Russian economy at the moment though.

[mr.WHO]

I guess, if it was an EMP bomb with a shaped expanding circular spread of the pulse that could be quite devastating, still sounds a bit ambitious for Russian economy at the moment though.

No really - all you need is 60s vintage tech - something that Russia is immersed in right now and has stocks that can be mainteined/repaired.
Out of all supposed to be crazy delusional superweapons, this one is very realistic for Russia to have and use.

[alt3rn1ty]

Wow, I just read all of that wiki page, amazing, I didn't know anything about it, apparently it was launched a few months before I was born .. Maybe explains a few things

[mr.WHO]

The only saving grace would be that such attack can't be targeted/precise at all - it equals with attack on global satellite grid.

It's a declaration of war against pretty much everyone owning and using space assets, including China.

[notaterran]

Hopefully Democrats and some Republicans in the House will find a way to get things done without the Trump faction. It's shameful what the Republican party has become.

[mr.WHO]

Looks like Russians decisively broken through north of Avdiyivka and Ukraine is now evacuating it under heavy fire.

The good news is that 3rd Separate Assault brigade, which was sent to cover the evacuation managed to cover the retreat of multiple elements of two battered brigades which were in Avdiyivka.

It's still to early to judge, but it looks like Ukrainians pulled out too late, just like in Bachmut.

[burger1]

Not really unexpected. Was wondering what the reinforcements were going in for. Hopefully the Ukrainians in the lower pocket where Russia's underground tunnel was got out. The US Republicans pretty much gave Avdiyivka to Putin and killed a bunch of Ukrainians.

[burger1]

House speaker Mike Johnson starts House recess without voting on Ukraine aid. Might be back from recess Feb 28, 2024 (?). Likely not to get brought to the floor?

https://news.yahoo.com/hill-white-house ... 00283.html

[fiksal]

The US Republicans pretty much gave Avdiyivka to Putin and killed a bunch of Ukrainians.

That's kind of their goal.


Did big missiles arrive in Ukraine?

Navalny appears to be dead for real now.

Northern parts of Russia openly taking autonomy from Moscow. I suggest they get better armed.

[Warenwolf]

Navalny appears to be dead for real now.

Yep... Not by falling out of the window but due to...."bad health"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

[fiksal]

Navalny appears to be dead for real now.

Yep... Not by falling out of the window but due to...."bad health"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

Murder is usually bad for the health indeed.

Navalny should've returned with an army, that was a stupid move to return to a fascist country without one.

[mr.WHO]

Hopefully the Ukrainians in the lower pocket where Russia's underground tunnel was got out.

That place was called firebase Zenith - it's been successfuly evacuated and Russians already capture and posted videos from those positions.

Northern parts of Russia openly taking autonomy from Moscow. I suggest they get better armed.

Are you familliar with this Russian Youtuber? He covered this topic quite well in this 25 minutes video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCjS6g2fe0Q

In short, local republics lack demographic, economic and political mass to stand against Russian "core", even when all combined together - if they rebel, all they will get is razed to the ground like Chechenya.

The only chance they could get, if Russian would be defeated badly in Ukraine and then absolutely ALL of them would rebel in same time - that would give them a fighting chance, but success probability would still be low.
The only historical precedent like this would be when WW1 ended and German, Russian and Austrian empires were broken to the point all Central Europe nations rebeled and seceded out.

[fiksal]

Northern parts of Russia openly taking autonomy from Moscow. I suggest they get better armed.

Are you familliar with this Russian Youtuber? He covered this topic quite well in this 25 minutes video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fCjS6g2fe0Q

In short, local republics lack demographic, economic and political mass to stand against Russian "core", even when all combined together - if they rebel, all they will get is razed to the ground like Chechenya.

The only chance they could get, if Russian would be defeated badly in Ukraine and then absolutely ALL of them would rebel in same time - that would give them a fighting chance, but success probability would still be low.
The only historical precedent like this would be when WW1 ended and German, Russian and Austrian empires were broken to the point all Central Europe nations rebeled and seceded out.

Yeah, I've seen it, he might be right and there's not much to it. I'd only say my counter point to Vlad is that Russian revolutions happen with fewer people than one may think, and all it takes is a standoff and police extreme brutality.

Chechen war, arguably ended with their victory.


EDIT:

in other news, the fascist regime is afraid of any gathering

(mass) arrests in St Peterburg, gathering in memory of Navalny
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YLUcPkAcMW8

my regular sources didnt post anything yet from Russia, so I cant confirm this with much, nor can say if we are talking about a lot of people or the "usual" amount.


EDIT 2:

did anyone miss that Putin made excuses for Hitler? It's been reposted on Russian news. Not that you'll catch me watching Putin's speech, but that stuff just writes itself it appears.

Poland “forced” Hitler to start World War II with it, the Russian President said.

[Falcrack]

Navalny appears to be dead for real now.

Yep... Not by falling out of the window but due to...."bad health"

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ja ... 024-02-16/

Murder is usually bad for the health indeed.

Navalny should've returned with an army, that was a stupid move to return to a fascist country without one.

He was likely from the day he decided to return to Russia to end up as a victim. Was it a mistake to return? If his goal was to preserve his life, then yes. If his goal was to try to change Russia despite the risk to his life, then maybe long term his decision may have more impact for good than we realize.

There is something powerful about those who are willing to risk and even give their lives for a greater cause. If enough people share such a mindset and are inspired to fight for what is right despite personal risks, then that may be what is able to eventually bring about the change he was seeking.

[fiksal]

What he did was brave but stupid because it seemed he had no plan, or we'll never know what that plan was.

He should've come back with armed support.

If there was none and he saw that, it's naive to think he could alone change it, from prison. He knew what happens, executions are common.

And yes we need more people like it, alive, but, people in Russia mostly are not that

[Observe]

Avdiivka officially taken. What's next? Is Russia still looking to take the whole country, or do they have a lesser goal in mind? Seems they have a pretty big chunk of Ukraine already. Certainly enough to provide them with their land bridge to Crimea. Will they call it mission accomplished at some point and just dig in?

I'm guessing there will be less and less assistance from other countries, so now may be Ukraine's best chance to cry uncle. It is becoming doubtful that the US will provide any more money for the war and if they do, it may be close to the last. Once Ukraine surrenders and the war ends, I expect there will be tons of money available for reconstruction (and corruption). Post war, billionaires will be made and the more damage the better.

[Warenwolf]

Avdiivka officially taken. What's next? Is Russia looking to take the whole country, or do they have a lesser goal in mind? Seems they have a pretty big chunk of Ukraine already. Certainly enough to provide them with their land bridge to Crimea. Will they call it mission accomplished at some point and just dig in?

I'm guessing there will be less and less assistance from other countries, so now may be Ukraine's best chance to cry uncle. It is becoming doubtful that the US will provide any more money for the war and if they do, it may be the last. Once Ukraine surrenders and the war ends, I expect there will be tons of money available for reconstruction (and corruption). Post war, billionaires will be made and the more damage the better.

Well, one city gone, thousands to go. Putin's goals have been same since the war started and the only thing that changed since the start is the timeline.
However, if Afghanistan showed anything is that people that are committed to their case can drive off an empire. Twice...

The rest of the stuff you wrote is akin to pseudo-politics from echo chambers on Reddit and I am not interested in playing that game. If you have issues with countries/companies and their corruption related to post-conflict construction contracts then take it up with companies closer to home, like Bechtel in VIrginia.

[notaterran]

Bakhmut and Avdiivka are two cities among many. Yes, they fell but perhaps Ukrainians aren't too sad abut it. Look at the price that Russia had to pay to take two cities. This is not over, not by a long shot.