Russia-Ukraine War

[mr.WHO]

Since Russians are starting to use more and more T-54, it seem there are still some old tanks in deeeeeeeep stock before we reach T-34

SoonTM for tank connosieurs

T-10M
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-10_tank

T-44
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-44


Once these two pop up, only then we can expect T-34 to appear

[fiksal]

things are looking up

certainly some interesting things to strike in Russia on that side

EDIT: I apparently missed news that Germany and France did the same few days ago, but with long range weapons.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy770l9llnzo

US President Joe Biden has given Ukraine permission to use American-supplied weapons to strike targets in Russia, but only near the Kharkiv region, US officials say.

One told BBC News his team had been directed to ensure Ukraine was able to use US weapons for "counter-fire purposes" to "hit back at Russian forces hitting them or preparing to hit them".

Russian forces have made gains in the Kharkiv region in recent weeks after a surprise offensive in the area, close to the border with Russia.

On Friday, Ukrainian officials said three people had been killed and 16 injured in Russian shelling of a residential building in a suburb of Kharkiv city.

The US official also told the BBC: "Our policy with respect to prohibiting the use of Army Tactical Missile System [ATACMS] or long-range strikes inside of Russia has not changed.”

When asked by CBS, the BBC's US partner, whether the new policy included attacking Russian aircraft, an official said: "We’ve never told them [Ukraine] they can’t shoot down a Russian airplane over Russian soil that’s coming to attack them.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/ukra ... rcna155347

The Institute for the Study of War also suggested in its daily report Monday that “Ukrainian forces struck a Russian S-300/400 air defense battery in Belgorod Oblast," most likely with a high mobility artillery rocket system (HIMARS) on Saturday or Sunday.
...
“Ukraine is bound to show they can now do this and that S-300 is a legitimate military target,” Michael Clarke, visiting professor of war studies at King’s College London, told NBC News.

Moscow will likely try to find some other nonmilitary ways of getting back at NATO countries, including sabotage, Clarke said.

[clakclak]

Now if only we (Germany) could also actually hand over weopons to Ukraine that can actually be used to strike high value targets. And yes, I mean the dreaded topic of a great many internal political debattes, the Taurus.

[mr.WHO]

Many times I heard rumor that most Taurus are not even in usable state and that's the main reason why Germany don't want to give it away.

[Falcrack]

France announced it is sending Mirage 2000 fighter jets to Ukraine

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerosp ... 024-06-06/

[fiksal]

Russian propaganda confirmed that Kremlin doesn't think Poland is in NATO, and it makes perfect sense for Russia to get back at the West by nuking all major cities in Poland.

hashtag peace treaty with Kremlin


if you want to read that nonsense, it's below


disclaimer, nothing surprising is being said. For years Russian news discussed how small countries don't matter and all decisions are made by large empires, they wanted to mean Russia in this case. Which gets to decide, to install a puppet regime, make a buffer zone, nuke, or referendum into its own country.

This is lunacy and bluff for infernal consumption, however it should be treated seriously as you would a mentally unstable and armed individual. Even if that individual is experiencing alcohol poisoning.


https://tsn.ua/ru/svit/10-15-minut-i-po ... 93005.html

“Let’s take Poland, for example, as the closest to us, as the most realistic candidate to turn out to be such a small, unlimited theater of nuclear war. Are there 20 large cities there? Hardly. Even if we calculate that two warheads need to be allocated for each city, that’s only 30 -40 warheads, this is just a salvo of one Iskander division: 16 launchers, two for each (warheads - ed.). Approach time - 5-6 minutes; preparation of flight missions on the spot - 3-5 minutes for deployment. 10 -15 minutes - and Poland as a state, and the Poles as a people, disappear from the face of the earth along with their language. This is something Europeans should understand very, very well,” said the Russian propagandist.

Let us recall that earlier the Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, threatened that a US strike on Russian troops on the territory of Ukraine would mean the start of a world war, as a result of which “Warsaw will receive its share of radioactive ash.”

[Alan Phipps]

... which conveniently ignores the facts that Poland is a NATO member since 1999 and that NATO non-Polish troops are stationed in Poland. Good luck with selling any of that propaganda to the rest of the NATO mutual defence pact. In fact it doesn't really matter what the Kremlin thinks, only what actions it takes matter.

[fiksal]

... which conveniently ignores the facts that Poland is a NATO member since 1999 and that NATO non-Polish troops are stationed in Poland. Good luck with selling any of that propaganda to the rest of the NATO mutual defence pact. In fact it doesn't really matter what the Kremlin thinks, only what actions it takes matter.

unfortunately I can't tell how seriously the Russian command believes that

if they all nod does it mean they agree?

does Putin start to believe it after he repeats it himself enough?


you are right though, it doesn't matter

[mr.WHO]

There is a lot of "ifs" to take, before we could even think about such scenario.

Lets assume that somehow Russia will have enough working Iskanders still left in stock.
Lets assume that they are actually capable of carry and deliver the nukes.
Lets assume that the nukes are actually working and that Russia mannaged to actually maintain and repair them well enough (constant radiation dammage to nuke components is actually a serious thing).
Lets assume whole NATO and Polish air defense somehow take the day off (especially lets assume there is a "super holiday" and there is no AWACS, while there was on average 2-4 AWACS over Poland 24/7 in last two years )
Lets assume US missile defense base in Poland takes the day off.
Lets assume nukes actually hit and detonate.
Lets assume rest of the world will be fine with 3 million foreigners (especially the EU ones) living in Poland to be glassed.
Lets assume rest of the world is shocked and scared of WW3 and decide to chicke out.

What do you expect to happen?

I'll tell you what would happen - every single polish jet, missile, shell and drone will fly into every Russian Nuclear Power plant between here and Ural mountains.
If Russian struggle now against Ukrainians (playing nice, with their hands tied behind their back), then they have no chance in hell to stop the military force operating in M.A.D / total genocide mode (think Izrael and Gaza, but world ending apocalypse already happened).

Soviet Union at it's peak and in peace time, was barrely able to contain one Chernobyl.
Do anybody think Putin Russia would be able to deal with one or two dozen Chernobyls at the same time?

That's just today.

In a few years we'll stock enough missiles, planes and drones for every Nuclear Power Plant, every water dam, every conventional Power and Heating Plant, every Refinery, every gas terminal and every major grain terminal.
Russia might glass Poland, but Poland will be able to totally ruin european part of Russia without even having nukes.

We'll be capable to turn Russian core regions into FalloutTM live action show, with plenty of atractions - radiation poisining, floods, famine, freezing to death all included.
This or 80 milion Russians will have to move really fast and live in a tent in Siberia for next 30 years.


Remember kids, M.A.D works both ways.

[fiksal]

*some* generals in Russia know this, but those that sit on the propaganda stool dont know what's fiction and what's reality.

The "logic" here is same as when attacking Ukraine, why would a country fight back when attacked by a significantly larger country. The question they still dont know the answer to after 3 day war in Ukraine. In fact it's such a difficult question to them to answer that Russian space invented many reasons
- US commanded Ukraine to fight
- majority of soldiers arent actually Ukrainian

That's why Putin says he thinks if US were to agree to peace (read that as surrender) then Ukraine will give up immediately, since it'll have no troops or orders to fight.

So what would they expect in this fantasy with Poland? Again it's a threat towards USA only, they dont care what Poland thinks or does, because for the same reason, if US would say "not to fight", because Poland is by right, Russian, then Poland will not regardless of how many nukes land.

[chew-ie]

There is a lot of "ifs" to take, before we could even think about such scenario.
[..]

If anything - those fantasy threats will just cement yet another finland-sweden-scenario which shall be treated as synonym for "backfired hard on russia". Or in other words - while it may comfort some russian patriots to hear words like that, shunned Russia only gets more shunned for another decade. No way a neighbour like this will be "invited for tea" anytime soon.

And it is indeed troubling - and every western leader learned that by now - that this boasting isn't about Ukraine anymore. What's totally odd is that Russia doesn't hide anymore it's ambitions to fight everyone. Too much cocaine? Like you said Mr. Who - even if they trash yet another country besides Ukraine - there is no way the world would not react.

And last but not least - attacking Ukraine to "fight Nazis" and now threaten Poland like that other Nazi did in the past - that's beyond stupid.

[fiksal]

an ordinary Russian doesn't really know what being a Nazi is.

and attacking a mythical Nazi isn't a contradiction to a Russian fascist, because those are just words to them

[burger1]

China might make Russia sell cheap oil or cancel the Siberia 2 pipeline deal. Siberia 2 pipeline is meant to go from Russia to China. Russia's already spent a lot of money building it even though it's not completed.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/russia-c ... 00147.html

Ukraine sunk/damaged a tug boat.

Russia's only aircraft carrier is no longer repairable. After a multitude of fires over the years the ship isn't worth fixing apparently.

Russian fleet visits Cuba. At least 3 nuclear submarines. Obama lifted sanctions then Trump placed a travel ban on Cuba that Biden didn't reverse as a result (in part) Cuba's economy and population have been shrinking. Cuba is undergoing an economic crisis.

Ukraine's taking back captured territory around Kharkiv.

Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Rostov hit again and might be shut down for quite a while. Might have hit a vital part.

It looks like we are back to a nuclear arms race vs talks/limitations.

[mr.WHO]

When Bradley and BTR decide to do medieval jousting:
https://x.com/GloOouD/status/1799113513270653037

[chew-ie]

Did no one told them what will happen?

Nice Bradley footage

[notaterran]

Not to take anything away from the Ukrainians (and it's good to see them defeating Russian invaders) but the quality of Russian troops is probably not very high because of Putin's rush to send them to the battlefield as soon as possible. You'd think after all the Russian losses Putin would've announced a general mobilization by now.

[fiksal]

You'd think after all the Russian losses Putin would've announced a general mobilization by now.

He is afraid to, he doesnt know what'll happen. I dont either, but in a twisted way, we'd see where apolitical Russians stand then. We will also see where Europe really stands too.

And while Putin wants to see the Russian empire and the Russian world, it's not the worst option for him to have this war be frozen and go on forever. We can only look as far back as Donbass for that example.

[mr.WHO]

The general mobilization cannot be done simply due to logistics - they struggled at the start of the war, they struggle now.

Adding 2 million personel to the mix would be a total clusterf*ck - first and most important, you would take them out of economy, so here comes down the general supplies production.
Then you need to feed, equip and train those people (and take out trained soldiers from frontline to train recruits).
Then you need transportation, food and fuel to get them to the frontline.
Then you need constant stream of supplies to keep them in the fight.


War is not a computer game, where you click a button, one-time cost is deducted and fresh troop pop up out of barracs.
Putin knows general mobiliziation would be the game over.


Remember, they failed to push into Kharkiv that is next door - they could cover the food delivery by calling pizza, transportation by Uber and munition supplies by courier service from Belogrod

[fiksal]

while points about the cost are valid, somehow I think it's the last on Putin's mind. He is more concerned with his position and his legacy towards the Russian Empire.

He knows Russian soldiers don't mind terrible conditions or no ammo

[burger1]

Macron calls election after dissolving national assembly. The far right National Rally party seems to be favoured. It's led by pro russian Marine Le Pen. Anti immigration parties seem to have favour. Elections are June 30, 2024 and July 7, 2024.

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/macr ... in-eu-vote