Russia-Ukraine War

Anything not relating to the X-Universe games (general tech talk, other games...) belongs here. Please read the rules before posting.

Moderator: Moderators for English X Forum

User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

Warenwolf wrote: Sat, 22. Jun 24, 01:29 Except the components have 10-30x mass to a light machine gun and 200-300x the cost. Also laser technology and Ukraine + miniaturization - I don't think so. If they start sporting laser weapons, it is because someone gave them to them. Finally Look at the laser equipment US army fields - these things are heavy. I am not even going into heat dissipating issues lasers have (which gets bigger the smaller the system is) or the fact that you need to hold laser on target for extended time in order to achieve effect while moving and shooting at moving and perhaps evading target.

So color me skeptical...
Those are valid points, especially for drone to drone interception (both would be relatively agile and moving/avaoiding).
However, baloons are relatively static and most fragile targets, so it could work.
Even if laser equipment would cost a few milion $, you wouldn't loose it after a shot (unlike missile) - tis would mean it would be net gain after just a few targets destroyed, that would alternatively had to get an expensive missile to the face.

As for laser weapons in Ukraine. I recall few weeks ago UK mentioned they want to deploy and test their first operational alser system in Ukrain - granted it's ground based chassi, but that's a start.
Warenwolf
Posts: 1724
Joined: Wed, 13. Apr 05, 04:22
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf »

mr.WHO wrote: Sat, 22. Jun 24, 11:01
Those are valid points, especially for drone to drone interception (both would be relatively agile and moving/avaoiding).
However, baloons are relatively static and most fragile targets, so it could work.
Even if laser equipment would cost a few milion $, you wouldn't loose it after a shot (unlike missile) - tis would mean it would be net gain after just a few targets destroyed, that would alternatively had to get an expensive missile to the face.

As for laser weapons in Ukraine. I recall few weeks ago UK mentioned they want to deploy and test their first operational alser system in Ukrain - granted it's ground based chassi, but that's a start.
Well, generally weapon procurement is always 90% politics and grift and 10% actual military need.

Generally speaking making specialized weapon platform for one task which can be covered by another platform is bad economy. How many spy balloons are there compared to all other ways intel can be gathered?

Operating at higher altitudes is way above the capabilities of the off the shelf drones you can buy at your local store. You need heavy engines to get there which means something like Predator drones from US, which costs 30 mil USD (google search - don't fact check that). You need to develop and add heavy batteries and laser system to that sort of frame (so you need more lift and/or bigger engines) and we are talking about years in R&D with hefty cost. Which may very well be obsolete once you are done with the project. And all for a task that it only occasionally needs to do.

On other hand, Poland (just to take latest balloon example which proved to be nothing to worry about) has jet aircraft. It has missiles for those jet aircraft. Which are sub-500K USD per missile. Math may seem simple for youtubers and redditors who look at the missile cost vs 10 seconds of laser beam cost because they never calculate upfront cost and cost-benefit analyses of a system operating as part of larger whole.

Now, I am not expert on balloon shooting down, laser technology or whatever so above should not be taken as anything else than ramblings of random dude on the net.
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

War Archive released another quality video:

Battle of Sievierodonetsk - Animated Analysis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UFux021vOx0
burger1
Posts: 3272
Joined: Fri, 21. Aug 09, 22:51
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by burger1 »

Russian science institute burns.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... test-news/

Soviet era civilian scientific satellite facility that was converted to military use after the Russian invasion was partially blown up by Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-use ... 40948.html

Last missile ship in the Black Sea sunk? Ukraine boats laying mines now.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/russian-ships ... 31145.html

Four ships, including missile corvette Samum and patrol ship Pavel Derzhavin, have been hit.

North Korea might be sending engineering teams to Ukraine. Might not be.

https://news.yahoo.com/news/ukraine-sit ... 21803.html

Ukraine getting more missiles, equipment and funds.
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

Aparently US, Ukraine and Israel are negotiating transfer of older Israeli Patriot launchers, that they wanted to decomission, to be delivered for Ukraine.

Oh, and because Putin is too cozy with North Korea, South Korea might start to send weapons to Ukraine as well soon.
User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 6724
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

Nothing to see "here" for russian citizens. So let's cut their access to the free world.

Image

@source: https://x.com/DefenceHQ/status/1809480486428823654

Not that it is a completely new development - but I've to admit - it's "interesting" being present to see this creeping in - a whole nation getting imprisoned in clear sight. Never thought it would be so easy, with no resistance whatsoever. Seems all it takes is the good old "one step at a time" - and humans are flat on their back. :gruebel:
Image
Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!
Tammancktall: Es ist eine Ehre für sie mich kennenzulernen...
CBJ: Thanks for the savegame. We will add it to our "crazy saves" collection [..]

:idea: Feature request: paint jobs on custom starts
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

Russian material losses are now glaring and their war industry statistics become clear and pure propaganda.

Sattelite images show their storage bases going empty in alarming rates.

Their artillery shell production is full of s*hit - their fire rate is a fracture of previous year - they have to beg North Korea for ammo.
Their long range missile strikes are shadow of previous year.

Their tank production capability is full of sh*t - instead of real, from the scratch production, they put de-monthballed units in this statistics (and this is going to end as deep storages goes empty already).
Suppose mighty Rusian war industry has issues with restarting production of T-80, while T-72/T-90 production is straight canibalization of existing storage.

T-90, T-80 and T-72 becoming more and more rare - replaced by T-62, T-55, T-54.
Russia is running out of IFVs and that is very impressive, given they had near infinite stocks of BMP1 to BMP3 - now they are beign replaced by MT-LB (which is an APC).
Russia is running out of trucks, even their makeshift buchankas - they start to use modified motorcycles and electric golf carts as frontline supply...and starts to use them as assault vechicles (yesterday assault in Kharkyiv region) :doh:

The cherry on top is that Black Sea fleet has been defeated by enemy who doesn't have any fleet.



Unless some external factor pop-up, Russia will run out of majority of their stock in 2 years max...
...or we will start to see North Korea, China and Iran vechicles.
...or Russia wil double down on pure meat waves - comparing to WW2 losses, they could still be fine with 3-5 million personel losses (military speaking - demographically, Russia was a catasptrophe even in peace time before the war).
...or even this is full of sh*t since Russia is now going full foreign recruitment all over the world, from Cuba, South America, Africa and Asia.
...last week there was report that Russia started using units drafter from female prisons on the frontlines - now this looks desperate

All of this from suppose 2nd Army of the world, with full logistic and industrial base next door.


It's obvious that Russian military has peaked last year - since then, they are now trending towards the bottom at accelerating rate, replacing lost equipment with worse and older.
This is their Stalingrad moment - they still advance slowly from their initial momentum, but even this is now stalling (They failed Kharkiyv offensive, they still failed to take Chasiv Jar and failed to exploit their breakthrough in Oceretyne).

Now it's clear they are near breaking point, since Putin tried to send Orban to ask for cease-fre.
User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 6724
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

We'll see if the still have a Trump up their sleeves... :roll:
Image
Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!
Tammancktall: Es ist eine Ehre für sie mich kennenzulernen...
CBJ: Thanks for the savegame. We will add it to our "crazy saves" collection [..]

:idea: Feature request: paint jobs on custom starts
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

chew-ie wrote: Sun, 7. Jul 24, 14:33 We'll see if the still have a Trump up their sleeves... :roll:
Trump, if elected, won't be in the office till February 2025.
Even with worst case scenario, EU will be able to keep supporting Ukraine for 2025.
Hopefully, by then, someone could convince Trump to use Russian assets hold by US to be pumped into US miliary industry support for Ukraine - he would have much less trouble rebranding from "donation" to "business".
Something like "We won't support Ukraine, Russia will...and Russia will pay for it".

By the 2026 Russia will be broke equipment wise, accumulate notable (albeit not catastrophic) personel losses to be no further thread to Ukraine existence.
By that time Russia won't even be notable nuisance to NATO/West, as military industry will be back online and Eastern flank (Scandinavia, Baltics, Poland and Romania) will be mostly restocked with all brand new, state of the art weapons.

The only question left is, if Ukraine will be able to liberate any more of it's lands before the war ends - this is non trivial question as the only remotely competent thing that Russia shown in this war is their defense lines.
E.g. Surovikin line, where Ukraine managed to penetrate 3 defense lines...out of 12.
Even with exausted troops and material shortages, Russia would probably able to hold those lines for many months.

Personally, I think that Ukraine should aim to trade Crimea and/or Donbas/Luhansk only for immediate NATO membership (since peace agreement would resolve contested status of occupied territories, it should clear out NATO path for Ukraine).
Russia would gain consolation price of ruined lands to choke on it, while Ukraine would gain unity (rid of Russian majority regions) and proper tangible security measure (NATO).
Only something like this would guarantee that Russia wouldn't try again in 5-10 years.

It would be a dirty peace, but still the cleanest possible, basically more favorable Korean scenario.
User avatar
fiksal
Posts: 17005
Joined: Tue, 2. May 06, 17:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal »

dirty peace would sacrifice people who live there


maybe Ukraine can enter NATO such that, to keep NATO happy only part of the country can be considered for article five.

even if that section of the war ends up frozen, there's a clear understanding in NATO and in EU states, that the conquered territory is still Ukraine and will return back. And that Russia doesn't get a pass on crimes.

no dirty peace with Russia needed

I don't think Russia can keep it frozen if Ukraine is allowed to strike in Russia.
Gimli wrote:Let the Orcs come as thick as summer-moths round a candle!
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

fiksal wrote: Sun, 7. Jul 24, 18:24 dirty peace would sacrifice people who live there
no dirty peace with Russia needed
You know it, I know it, but will people in the west care long enough to carry Ukraine to victory?

Albeit, with today election news from France, I'm slightly more optimistic.
User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 6724
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

mr.WHO wrote: Sun, 7. Jul 24, 21:42 Albeit, with today election news from France, I'm slightly more optimistic.
Indeed, Mordor didn't win this battle.
Image
Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!
Tammancktall: Es ist eine Ehre für sie mich kennenzulernen...
CBJ: Thanks for the savegame. We will add it to our "crazy saves" collection [..]

:idea: Feature request: paint jobs on custom starts
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

Interesting battlefield development - seems like Ukraine is starting to use more and more civilian propeller planes with makeshift gunners to shoot down recon drones.

With all those jets using expensive BVR missiles, I wonder how long will it take for Ukraine to build dedicated fighter drone with cannons/machine guns to bring back point blank dogfights.

Propeller planes are also cheaper to make, maintain and pilot, so this would extent the pilot pool to people who would have no chance for flying the jet planes.

On the other hand, Russia is trying to bring back WW2 style barrage balloons to be an obstacle against drones:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrage_balloon


It's interesting to observe that as ewar conomy and technology become more expensive, both side get back to WW1 and WW2 solutions.
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

Seems like today there was another small step for the orckind on a journey to find the new low.


They forgot that today everyone has HD phone to document their war crimes:
https://liveuamap.com/en/2024/8-july-vi ... se-missile

- exclusively Russian made Kh-101 (so not a false flag) missile
- hasn't been hit off trajectory by missile defence
- nor miss - it went straight for the hospital


Oh and Orban from his visit in Moscow confirmed there will be more of those for next 3 months - albeit it's hard to decipher someone talk, while choking on vlads pipe.
User avatar
chew-ie
Posts: 6724
Joined: Mon, 5. May 08, 00:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by chew-ie »

They are clearly stuck in a very dark age and have no place in our time.
Image
Spoiler
Show
BurnIt: Boron and leaks don't go well together...
Königinnenreich von Boron: Sprich mit deinem Flossenführer
Nila Ti: Folgt mir, ihr Kavalkade von neugierigen Kreaturen!
Tammancktall: Es ist eine Ehre für sie mich kennenzulernen...
CBJ: Thanks for the savegame. We will add it to our "crazy saves" collection [..]

:idea: Feature request: paint jobs on custom starts
User avatar
mr.WHO
Posts: 9153
Joined: Thu, 12. Oct 06, 17:19
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by mr.WHO »

Aparently, there is another layer to yesterday hospital case.

Directly next to the hospital, there are embassies of Finland and South Korea, so this was not only a terror war crime, but also diplomatic threat.

Seems like there are more and more reason for South Korea to become next major supplier for Ukraine.


Edit:

Correction/Clarification
seem that there are two Hospitals with the same name in Kyiv.
One near embassies I described above...was not the one that got hit.

The one that actually got hit has Ministry of Infrastructure building literally next door, a 100m street pass to the building got hit - this looks like an actual intended target.

Guess I need to cross check the info with Google maps from now on.
Warenwolf
Posts: 1724
Joined: Wed, 13. Apr 05, 04:22
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf »

Came over this today:
US intelligence discovered earlier this year that the Russian government planned to assassinate the chief executive of a powerful German arms manufacturer that has been producing artillery shells and military vehicles for Ukraine, according to five US and western officials familiar with the episode.

The plot was one of a series of Russian plans to assassinate defense industry executives across Europe who were supporting Ukraine’s war effort, these sources said.
The target was Armin Papperger, Chairman of Rheinmetall AG.

Source:
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/07/11/poli ... index.html
User avatar
notaterran
Posts: 1097
Joined: Thu, 10. Sep 09, 05:22
x3tc

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by notaterran »

Warenwolf wrote: Fri, 12. Jul 24, 08:26The target was Armin Papperger, Chairman of Rheinmetall AG.
So what would be an appropriate response?
-Skinny women look good in clothes, fit women look good naked.
User avatar
fiksal
Posts: 17005
Joined: Tue, 2. May 06, 17:05
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by fiksal »

mr.WHO wrote: Sun, 7. Jul 24, 21:42
fiksal wrote: Sun, 7. Jul 24, 18:24 dirty peace would sacrifice people who live there
no dirty peace with Russia needed
You know it, I know it, but will people in the west care long enough to carry Ukraine to victory?
as people who understand that, we should take care not to repeat falsehoods

the deal that you described aside from rewarding evil, also can't be made with anyone who would have the power to make it

Russia can't be held accountable to any agreement by any force, except by Ukraine.

NATO can't and won't check its policies and processes with a non member / enemy country / Russia on every occasion
notaterran wrote: Sat, 13. Jul 24, 00:47
Warenwolf wrote: Fri, 12. Jul 24, 08:26The target was Armin Papperger, Chairman of Rheinmetall AG.
So what would be an appropriate response?
those who want to make peace with Putin would say to ignore this

or, you could make sure there are no Russian troops in Ukraine and no Putin. One can do both, without declaring war which scares everyone

does anyone have armies?
Gimli wrote:Let the Orcs come as thick as summer-moths round a candle!
Warenwolf
Posts: 1724
Joined: Wed, 13. Apr 05, 04:22
x4

Re: Russia-Ukraine War

Post by Warenwolf »

notaterran wrote: Sat, 13. Jul 24, 00:47
Warenwolf wrote: Fri, 12. Jul 24, 08:26The target was Armin Papperger, Chairman of Rheinmetall AG.
So what would be an appropriate response?
Objectively speaking? Germany will do nothing. They are more scared of people supporting Palestinians than Russian operatives operating in Berlin. I am now commenting on what they do and not what they say.

What they should do? Kremlin responds well to violence or increase of violence.

Return to “Off Topic English”