Russia-Ukraine War

[Observe]

That's why Putin must fail. That's why Trump must fail. I doubt you and I will ever agree on this

I don't disagree with everything you say about this. Furthermore, I don't have a crystal ball, or infallible insight. I recognize that I may be 100% off course. All I can do, is offer my honest opinion of how I see things are and what needs to be done for remedy.

[fiksal]

Out of present ideas the only idea I see that will end the war are European troops providing security in Ukraine.

That's step 1.

Pushing Russia to withdraw from Ukraine is step 2. A harder step.

These are the arrangements that should be discussed now then presented to Russia as the only terms out of this. The negotiation should be about how much Russia owes in restoration of Ukraine. And what's needed from Russia to have sanctions lifted.

Not sure US can be counted for security guarantees, so maybe skip US.

If Trump proves my assumptions about his admin wrong, I am all for it

[felter]

Why is it always Ukraine should have surrendered (with conditions) after their failed Spring offensive in 2023. Why is it never Russia should have packed up and went home after their failed Blitzkrieg or that they should have packed up and gone home after any of their numerous failed offences this past 3 years, and there has been numerous of those. But it's always Ukraine should have bowed down and accepted Russia as their master, when in reality it's Ukraine that has been showing Russia just who is their master, but you have a problem accepting this.

[Observe]

But it's always Ukraine should have bowed down and accepted Russia as their master, when in reality it's Ukraine that has been showing Russia just who is their master, but you have a problem accepting this.

I would have no problem accepting it if it were true. I wish it were the case.

[fiksal]

it can be made true if everyone pitches in at helping Russia to collapse

Ukraine can slowly do it I think, just slower than fantasies about this war.

Observe, do you recall how awhile back, you thought Russia should pay for restoration of Ukraine,
that Ukraine should be allowed to apply for EU,
you have agreed that some kind of security guarantees needed,
that Putin's arrest warrant should stay,
and sanctions too?

Well nothing changed in Russia politically, they will today demand all of that in reverse. What are the chances that US will give in to all of Russia's demands?

Once again, I will remind you, that Russia doesn't see own collapse. They are right now saying that they are about to actually defeat NATO and Europe, that's what this victory is for them and they can smell it.

[clakclak]

The EU is preparing its biggest defense package for Ukraine yet. It is said to be up to 700billion €, which if true, would mean we have reached an entirely different ballpark (this is many times the Russian yearly military budget). A lot of it is allocated to building up the Ukrainian military industrial complex.However I am not convinced yet and will only believe it when I see it.

Source: https://www.newsweek.com/europe-defense ... st-2032541

EDIT: One thing that I think is often overlooked in a lot of the discussions, is that Europe, especially the EU, fails to do stuff out of a lack of political will and cohesion. That often gives the impression that Europe is technically incapable of doing things, which it isn't. It is mostly political incapable. But some people lul themselves into this dillusion, that Europe could not outproduce Russia even if it really wanted to. That is simply not the case.

[EGO_Aut]

@clakclak no way Not for Ukraine

[mr.WHO]

But some people lul themselves into this dillusion, that Europe could not outproduce Russia even if it really wanted to. That is simply not the case.

Germany opened a drone factory last week that produced analog of Russian Lancet drone and gave 6'000 of those to Ukraine.
The monthly production is 1'000 drones per month.

Multiple other EU countries are also ramping up their drone production as well.


We are easilly cappable of outproducing Russia at 2-3% of GDP spending on military, because such amount of spending will make EU military production sustainable long term business.
Russia is currently spending 50+% of it's GDP on military and it's killing their civilian economy.

Time work in EU favor, not in Russia favor.

[felter]

But it's always Ukraine should have bowed down and accepted Russia as their master, when in reality it's Ukraine that has been showing Russia just who is their master, but you have a problem accepting this.

I would have no problem accepting it if it were true. I wish it were the case.

It is true, Russia is doing badly on all aspects of the war, so bad they are having to use troops from a third-world country, tanks from WW2, they even started with 10x the amount of tanks Ukraine had now on some parts of the front line Ukraine has the tank superiority in numbers and quality, not to mention they have resorted to using Donkey's to move their supply's around. Their Navy is scared to leave port in the Black Sea, while their air force will not go near Ukraine any more as they will just be destroyed. But saying that, you still skirted the part about Russia should be the ones leaving after their abysmal attempt on all fronts of this war. You can lie to yourself as much as you want, but it will never make it true.

[clakclak]

Donald Trump now says Ukraine started the war. If there was ever any question I think it is fair to say that America will side with Russia on this war from now on.

[Observe]

Other than renouncing aspirations of joining NATO, I don't see what else Ukraine could have done to prevent the war. Zelenskyy was literally and knowingly playing with fire with his continued pressing for NATO membership, knowing full well, that this was a red line for Russia. Granted, Russia had other complaints as well.

So, here we are. Trump agrees with Russia that Ukraine should not have pursued joining NATO and cannot be permitted to do so in the future. There are many members of Congress who agree with that sentiment. What's next? Removal of sanctions?

[fiksal]

you of course forget that it was also the EU membership that started the war

Ukraine not surrendering to little proxy Soviet fascist light state called Donbass.

And earlier revolution that removed the pro Kremlin leader. Who afterwards admitted had he been still president, Ukraine would never think of independence from Russia

already then Putin had determined that Ukraine is dangerously headed to the independence

to avoid the war, Ukraine had to surrender everything 10 years ago, including the right to exist, right to its language and its culture

you all still remember that the only correct language for Slavic people is Russian, right? right?


but good thing you have me here to remind you of that and not to be sidetracked by phrases that have little grounds in reality

[Observe]

but good thing you have me here to remind you of that and not to be sidetracked by phrases that have little grounds in reality

Indeed! I'm counting on you to continue doing that.

[fiksal]

Thanks, I appreciate it

What's next? Removal of sanctions?

Do you still support that list that I posted above? Do you believe Trump's administration will do any of those points? You did before, do you still?

[fiksal]

I forgot yesterday to add another important bit to what Zelensky could do

Before the main invasion, there was no warning. Russia never described its demands or else, there was no negotiation. Russia concealed it was doing anything, it was a military exercise. Every diplomat was saying that NATO countries are being Russo phobic by spreading information that an attack is imminent. Unfortunately it seemed then Ukraine was not preparing for this. And even Russians inside of the country actually believed that this was just an exercise because why would they attack Ukraine? Kremlin never discussed it.

Kremlin made no demands because it felt it didn't need to negotiate or felt it is not accountable to it's people. And the element of surprise is important.

Donbas, Crimea, Georgea were done quickly with little warning.

Kremlin was surprised by two things though. That it couldn't finish the war in 3 days because Ukraine actually fought back effectively, unlike the three examples above. And Kremlin was surprised by sanctions as there were none of significance before - Kremlin was actually pretty hurt about that one and thought it was quite unfair from the West.

There you go. I kept this to just what we all saw in the news with little interpretation from my side

[clakclak]

Trump now goes further and calls Zelensky a dictator. With friends like these do you even need enemies?

[chew-ie]

I ~really~ hope the US citizens wake up ~very soon~ and chase this idiot out of the white house.

[notaterran]

And I really hope that Europe starts preparing for war with Russia, if Ukraine is defeated then it's only a matter of time until Russia starts invading again. My guess would be the Baltic countries.

[Chips]

Other than renouncing aspirations of joining NATO, I don't see what else Ukraine could have done to prevent the war. Zelenskyy was literally and knowingly playing with fire with his continued pressing for NATO membership, knowing full well, that this was a red line for Russia. Granted, Russia had other complaints as well.

So, here we are. Trump agrees with Russia that Ukraine should not have pursued joining NATO and cannot be permitted to do so in the future. There are many members of Congress who agree with that sentiment. What's next? Removal of sanctions?

Well, lets go back to 2014...

In 2010, during the premiership of Viktor Yanukovych, the Ukrainian parliament voted to abandon the goal of NATO membership and re-affirm Ukraine's neutral status, while continuing its co-operation with NATO.[3] In the February 2014 Ukrainian Revolution, Ukraine's parliament voted to remove Yanukovych, but the new government did not seek to change its neutral status.[4][5][6] Russia then occupied and annexed Crimea, and in August 2014 Russia's military invaded eastern Ukraine to support its separatist proxies. Because of this, in December 2014 Ukraine's parliament voted to end its neutral status,[7] and in 2018 it voted to enshrine the goal of NATO membership in the Constitution

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukraine%E ... _relations

You see, Ukraine kept the neutral status, and had no goal to join NATO in 2014. Even after Yanukovych was ousted, they still did not choose to do so. It was only events of Russia annexing Crimea and supporting the Donbass "separatist" movement that caused a seismic shift. Ukraine wasn't looking to join NATO until Russia invaded - at which point it *caused* Ukraine to do so. You could argue Russia planned it all along...


Nor was Finland or Sweden until Russia waged all out war on Ukraine either. Funny that.

Trump, et al. seem to assume that this wouldn't have happened if only Ukraine hadn't tried to join NATO. The available evidence at our disposal completely contradicts this though.

[Observe]

Trump, et al. seem to assume that this wouldn't have happened if only Ukraine hadn't tried to join NATO. The available evidence at our disposal completely contradicts this though.

Fair enough. How then, do you see this unfolding now that Trump is seeking to normalize relations with Russia? For me, the main thing right now, is to stop the carnage.

Considering that Ukraine is losing (already lost over 20% of their land) and unlikely to obtain much further support from the US, and with Europe seeming unable to adequately step up to the plate, realistically, how do we achieve a ceasefire?