Russia-Ukraine War

[Observe]

Observe is all doom and gloom regarding Ukraine (or maybe he wants Russia to win, who knows).

I don't want Russia to win. I want the Russian and Ukrainian people to win by not slaughtering each other. As for the doom and gloom, I am only reporting on what I am seeing in the news and social media regarding the languishing state of the battlefield and dwindling supplies of weapons and soldiers to use them on. I am no longer afraid that this will escalate beyond a regional war, because I don't think anyone, including Russia has the stomach for further escalation at this point. Depending on how this is resolved, Russia may have incentive to try again later down the road.

[fiksal]

regarding trying this later...

Russian propaganda is deathly afraid that the West is trying to break up Russia since prehistoric times.

Now that's an interesting idea that they have. They should repeat that more often for everyone to hear.

How many of those republics within Russia, with people, that Russians usually don't consider as Russians, actually would not mind to be separate from the kingdom of Moscow? Given a choice, perhaps?

[notaterran]

As mentioned earlier, Ukraine still has cards to play (for example the oil infrastructure). Doing so will inconvenience the West for sure.

[Falcrack]

Observe is all doom and gloom regarding Ukraine (or maybe he wants Russia to win, who knows).

I don't want Russia to win. I want the Russian and Ukrainian people to win by not slaughtering each other.

You sound like a "peace at any price" kind of guy. Imagine if the allies had taken such an attitude in the early days of WWII, when Germany was quickly marching towards Moscow, when Japan was at the peak of its conquests? We would be living in a much, much darker world had the allies decided to simply give up and spare the lives of their citizens by settling for some peace deal. The same is true for Ukraine, if they give up, they are giving away their freedoms and effectively settling for slavery.

You talk about wanting the Russians and Ukrainians to stop slaughtering each other. No, the Russians are slaughtering Ukrainians, while the Ukrainians are defending their homes and freedoms, and slaughtering Russians is merely a side effect. The war could end today if Russia gave up its imperialistic ambitions.

[EGO_Aut]

Observe is all doom and gloom regarding Ukraine (or maybe he wants Russia to win, who knows).

I don't want Russia to win. I want the Russian and Ukrainian people to win by not slaughtering each other.

You sound like a "peace at any price" kind of guy. Imagine if the allies had taken such an attitude in the early days of WWII, when Germany was quickly marching towards Moscow, when Japan was at the peak of its conquests? We would be living in a much, much darker world had the allies decided to simply give up and spare the lives of their citizens by settling for some peace deal. The same is true for Ukraine, if they give up, they are giving away their freedoms and effectively settling for slavery.

You talk about wanting the Russians and Ukrainians to stop slaughtering each other. No, the Russians are slaughtering Ukrainians, while the Ukrainians are defending their homes and freedoms, and slaughtering Russians is merely a side effect. The war could end today if Russia gave up its imperialistic ambitions.

The next one who forgot that there was a civil war, in Ukraine. How long did they fight each other 6 or 7 years

[Falcrack]

I don't want Russia to win. I want the Russian and Ukrainian people to win by not slaughtering each other.

You sound like a "peace at any price" kind of guy. Imagine if the allies had taken such an attitude in the early days of WWII, when Germany was quickly marching towards Moscow, when Japan was at the peak of its conquests? We would be living in a much, much darker world had the allies decided to simply give up and spare the lives of their citizens by settling for some peace deal. The same is true for Ukraine, if they give up, they are giving away their freedoms and effectively settling for slavery.

You talk about wanting the Russians and Ukrainians to stop slaughtering each other. No, the Russians are slaughtering Ukrainians, while the Ukrainians are defending their homes and freedoms, and slaughtering Russians is merely a side effect. The war could end today if Russia gave up its imperialistic ambitions.

The next one who forgot that there was a civil war, in Ukraine. How long did they fight each other 6 or 7 years

And when exactly did this "civil war" in Ukraine begin? Precisely in 2014 when Russia sent little green men without insignia into Ukrainian territory, and supplied opponents of Ukraine's government with heavy weapons. And continued to supply them ever since. I said it before, that absent Russia's direct instigation and subsequent intervention, there would have been no "civil war". This is a situation entirely of Russia's making. This was Russia invading Ukraine from the very start. The only difference between 2014 and 2022 was the scope of the attack by Russia.

There is a certain percentage of the population in almost any country in the world that is opposed to their government. If you arm them with heavy weapons, send troops without insignia to back them up, and provide them with the support they need to wage war against their government, and they begin fighting, does that mean it is a civil war? No, the country that provided that support is a direct participant and is responsible for that war. Russia was no neutral observer of what is happening in Ukraine since 2014, it was the cause of it, even though the residents of Donbass and Crimea were subsequently recruited to fight against Ukraine.

[fiksal]

the people in power in those regions are not even local, they are from Russia, Moscow, etc

some of the early separatists, that were armed by Russia, were Ukrainians, pretty sure they are all gone, haven't read about them for years

and if you recall they wanted independence, which is illegal under the Russian law, since they are claimed for Russia now


so yes, more invasion, less of civil war


also it's fun to hear the words civil war from Russian perspective. Russians don't think Ukrainians are people as you recall, and that they are brainwashed Russians, therefore there's no war, only special military operation, and maybe, get this, "civil war" among Russians on the Russian territory.

I kid you not

[Tamina]

I was wondering about the Russian separatists. The last thing I heard about them was when they were trying to retreat over the Russian border with the Ukranians in their back but got denied entry.

[burger1]

Japan announces 4.5b Ukraine aid package.

The separatist war was basically a fictional scenario created by Russia and a minority of people. The Russian military even fought in it. Anyways they are pretty much all dead. Russia forced them to go to the front lines either voluntarily or under great threat. If both parents were killed they sent their kids back to Russia for "educating". Whether the Ukrainians are separatist or not they are still the same. Same as the people in Crimea.

[Observe]

Question: What weapons is Ukraine lacking, that if provided now, would make a significant difference in their favor?

I understand that lack of air support has hindered their efforts. Hopefully F-16's will arrive early next year, although I question whether they will be in high enough numbers to matter enough. Is pilot training the primary cause for slow delivery?

The only other thing I can think of, is longer range artillery and missiles. The hesitation to date, has been that we don't want Ukraine attacking Russia, for fear of escalating the war and having Putin decide to attack everyone else. That argument doesn't seem valid to me. Putin can barely maintain his 'special operation', let alone take on the combined forces of NATO. There is talk of Putin using nuclear weapons, but he doesn't strike me as someone who wants to blow up the world. That wouldn't serve his interests.

So, I guess since peace isn't on the table, the best thing to do, is to give Ukraine everything that we've held back, in effective quantity and let the slaughter continue unabated.

[Falcrack]

Question: What weapons is Ukraine lacking, that if provided now, would make a significant difference in their favor?

I understand that lack of air support has hindered their efforts. Hopefully F-16's will arrive early next year, although I question whether they will be in high enough numbers to matter enough. Is pilot training the primary cause for slow delivery?

The only other thing I can think of, is longer range artillery and missiles. The hesitation to date, has been that we don't want Ukraine attacking Russia, for fear of escalating the war and having Putin decide to attack everyone else. That argument doesn't seem valid to me. Putin can barely maintain his 'special operation', let alone take on the combined forces of NATO. There is talk of Putin using nuclear weapons, but he doesn't strike me as someone who wants to blow up the world. That wouldn't serve his interests.

So, I guess since peace isn't on the table, the best thing to do, is to give Ukraine everything that we've held back, in effective quantity and let the slaughter continue unabated.

And the alternative is to hold back everything, allow Putin to conquer Ukraine unhindered, and rebuild his army, but this time using the lands and people of Ukraine as his slaves, and become an even bigger threat to Europe than he was prior to invading Ukraine. And send a strong and clear message to China that the US is not going to forcefully stand up for its allies and democracy, so China is free to attack Taiwan without fear of repurcusdions.

Allowing Putin victory in Ukraine may give us peace now, but increases the likelihood of more terrible wars in the future. And besides that, abandoning democratic allies like that is a cowardly, craven thing to do. Yes, it requires the slaughter to continue, as long as Russia is determined to accomplish its war aims. Putin will have to answer to God for that.

As to what Ukraine needs to win, is more of what we have already given, and to lift restrictions on long range missiles and strikes into Russian territory against military targets.

[Observe]

Allowing Putin victory in Ukraine may give us peace now, but increases the likelihood of more terrible wars in the future. And besides that, abandoning democratic allies like that is a cowardly, craven thing to do. Yes, it requires the slaughter to continue, as long as Russia is determined to accomplish its war aims. Putin will have to answer to God for that.

As to what Ukraine needs to win, is more of what we have already given, and to lift restrictions on long range missiles and strikes into Russian territory against military targets.

I agree. Alas, I wish it were otherwise, but that time has not yet come.

[mr.WHO]

Kissinger was finnally put to grave, yet it seem like Chamberlain is still an undead lich among many useful idiots.

It's not like Russia didn't openly give us a long "you're next" list in last two years.

[fiksal]

So, I guess since peace isn't on the table, the best thing to do, is to give Ukraine everything that we've held back, in effective quantity and let the slaughter continue unabated.

As soon as I hear serious talk in Russia about withdrawing from Ukraine, I will let you guys know. But it won't happen with Putin and his fascists in power.

So yeah, I agree to that too, the war has to come to Russia too, because Russia is at war. Right now Russians are all in favor of forever war because they can't feel it

[Observe]

I see Zelensky is in Washington again, in an attempt to rescue the collapse of funding. One question being asked, is what will another $60 billion accomplish that $110 billion to date hasn't?

An increasing number of US legislators are saying that the United States needs to accept that Ukraine cannot win and will have to cede some territory to Russia and that there will be no more blank checks, without a definite plan to end the conflict. Also, it appears that Zelensky is suffering from declining popularity at home, as the public realizes that his positive messages on TV do not reflect the reality of the battlefield.

[burger1]

Might be to counter a potential meeting between Hungary and the republicans in the US?

Anyways it's his job. In the end they will likely just lie to him again but it's publicity. Watch what they do vs what they say. Same as Russia.

Ukraine hasn't gotten $110b from the US. It's been almost 2 years. The current aid fiasco literaly screwed up the counter offensive. There's also been more delays on needed and promised equipment. For example glide bombs which are reasonably simple. Production facilities still not operating. Seems very dodgy on the part of allies vs actually trying to win the war.

Russia can't sustain their current losses. At 1000+ killed per day = ~1000 dead and 2000-4000 wounded. The hardest thing is replacing their equipment. Losses are at about 1-3.5 so for every tank Ukraine loses Russia loses about 3.5. Some irreplaceable equipment being destroyed also.

Bulgarian Parliament overrides President's veto, approves armored carriers for Ukraine

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/bu ... r-AA1ldAjp

Biden uses presidential power to give 14,000 tank shells for Israel so likely can do the same with Ukraine.

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/biden-adminis ... 46217.html

North Korea munitions exploding Russian equipment during use.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ru ... r-AA1lgjmE

Russians fighting the war aren't allowed to go home until the war is finished. Russians are also blocked from leaving the country. There's also been more raids on companies to force more people to fight.

[mr.WHO]

Russia can't sustain their current losses. At 1000+ killed per day = ~1000 dead and 2000-4000 wounded. The hardest thing is replacing their equipment. Losses are at about 1-3.5 so for every tank Ukraine loses Russia loses about 3.5. Some irreplaceable equipment being destroyed also.

Here is the sad part - Russia is 4 times bigger, population wise, so it needs to be consistently 1:4 losses for Ukraine to just break even.
Given that Russia is not normal country...an outward mental one, Ukraine would need consisten 1:6 ratio for 3-5 years (e.g. like WW1 Russia losses) to even think about breaking Russia.

Russia is basically one big prison and they just boil the frog slowly.
First by throwing prisoners and mercenaries, then minorities, then throwing sick and poor and then next group and the next one that is least desirable.
Every time the majority is thinking "it's good, it's not me", while not seeing that the wall of bodies between them and very special tourist trip is getting thinner and thinner.

[Warenwolf]

Given that Russia is not normal country...an outward mental one, Ukraine would need consisten 1:6 ratio for 3-5 years (e.g. like WW1 Russia losses) to even think about breaking Russia.

Russia is basically one big prison and they just boil the frog slowly.

That is one way of looking at it. Another one is fairly simple - more bodies Kremlin lose in Ukraine, far less bodies do they have for the next war in Moldavia or Baltic states.

[Warenwolf]

An increasing number of US legislators are saying that the United States needs to accept that Ukraine cannot win and will have to cede some territory to Russia

How big % is that support (over two years) is compared to the total military spending over in US for 2023?

That is why people don't like USA. See - Clinton pressured Ukraine to give up its nuclear weapons in 1991. Fair enough (I strongly disagree with current WMD consensus but I can see where their point)... Three decades later - some US politicians are arguing for carving up the country in order to satisfy Putin.

And I am not even touching upon the subject that Putin has no reason to stop the war if he perceives that West is no longer supporting Ukraine. Why would he settle for part of it when he can have it all?

[chew-ie]

And I am not even touching upon the subject that Putin has no reason to stop the war if he perceives that West is no longer supporting Ukraine. Why would he settle for part of it when he can have it all?

Yeah, I can already see the surprised Pikachus everywhere in that scenario should Ukraine be conquered and declared being part of russia.