Russia-Ukraine War

[Warenwolf]

Zelenskyy has asked for the EU to immediately adopt Ukraine under a special procedure.

He did several times in a row but what would be the benefit of this in the current situation?

Maybe he is thinking post-war? Macron has effectively put stop at any further expansion of EU for one.
Second ascension processes are drawn out procedures where existing members try to get as much benefit as possible out of candidate country plus there is also these days realization that some of members of EU from some parts of Europe ideologically are not really compatible with other EU countries (but they LOVE being funded by EU).
To put it simply, that would put Ukraine on a long road to EU ascension.

[mr.WHO]

But this is what I have issues with - you can't do proper post-strike analyses that quickly.
They are slowed down - by destroying couple of vehicles? The convoy is demoralized - yeah, how do you quantify that? Both of these two things are assumptions you cant really quantify at this time.

I am rooting for Ukrainians in this one but use common sense whenever military "information" gets released.

The footage show drone taking out Buk SAM battery and some lead tanks, so it's safe to assume they are slowed down and at least concerned that their anti-air is not as effective as they thought.


One of my concers is that it's not all forces that are avaliable to Russia - what if they intetionally sent conscripts and old equipment first, so that Ukaininas feel too cocky and fire most of their advance equipment, only to find that 2nd wave of fresh, more advanced and better trained Russian force is in the way?

This would be brutal and scary tactics, but for sure would not be beneath Russian generals.

[Vertigo 7]

Zelenskyy has asked for the EU to immediately adopt Ukraine under a special procedure.

He did several times in a row but what would be the benefit of this in the current situation?

Maybe he is thinking post-war? Macron has effectively put stop at any further expansion of EU for one.
Second ascension processes are drawn out procedures where existing members try to get as much benefit as possible out of candidate country plus there is also these days realization that some of members of EU from some parts of Europe ideologically are not really compatible with other EU countries (but they LOVE being funded by EU).
To put it simply, that would put Ukraine on a long road to EU ascension.

Maybe but then again, several of the EU nations swore they wouldn't ever export weaponry, yet here we are. Things can change with the stroke of a pen.

[Vertigo 7]

But this is what I have issues with - you can't do proper post-strike analyses that quickly.
They are slowed down - by destroying couple of vehicles? The convoy is demoralized - yeah, how do you quantify that? Both of these two things are assumptions you cant really quantify at this time.

I am rooting for Ukrainians in this one but use common sense whenever military "information" gets released.

The footage show drone taking out Buk SAM battery and some lead tanks, so it's safe to assume they are slowed down and at least concerned that their anti-air is not as effective as they thought.


One of my concers is that it's not all forces that are avaliable to Russia - what if they intetionally sent conscripts and old equipment first, so that Ukaininas feel too cocky and fire most of their advance equipment, only to find that 2nd wave of fresh, more advanced and better trained Russian force is in the way?

This would be brutal and scary tactics, but for sure would not be beneath Russian generals.

That may not have been the same convoy. If you're talking about the drone strike footage that was released yesterday, the big convoy was still in Belarus at the time.

[Warenwolf]

The footage show drone taking out Buk SAM battery and some lead tanks, so it's safe to assume they are slowed down and at least concerned that their anti-air is not as effective as they thought.

Yeah and maybe they all turn back and run because they thought nobody would die in a war.

Also according to info released this was in Zhitomir area, which places it west of Kiev. The 5km supply column, everyone thought was a massive tank column, is actually north of Kiev.

One of my concers is that it's not all forces that are avaliable to Russia - what if they intetionally sent conscripts and old equipment first, so that Ukaininas feel too cocky and fire most of their advance equipment, only to find that 2nd wave of fresh, more advanced and better trained Russian force is in the way?

No for several reasons.
If you look at the troop movements in the beginning, these were flying columns who were supposed to capture the cities by showing up and driving straight for the Kiev.
That is why you had Russian soldiers trying to capture airfields (as a forward resupply point) which is quite pointless in a protracted war (which your idea of using low quality troops before better troops implies) and situations where Russian vehicles were running out of fuel (even tanks).
Second example is that Ukrainians were showcasing captured equipment of 76th Guards Air Assault Division - this is a unit which does not consists of conscripts but contract soldiers. While not having the best stuff mother Russia can give, nor is it elite unit, it is not exactly green either.
Finally you had internal security troops being sent into Ukraine (Chechen SOBR) - these are thugs used to intimidate local population not fighting units. People who you need to keep population down after fighting is over.
This is where my comment of arrogance and hubris comes from earlier in this thread.

[Chips]

yes, well, it could also mean he's ready to nuke Ukraine.

Why do people assume Putin is threatening to nuke anything? He's previously said anyone intervening will see the ... blah blah of such no-one has ever seen. I didn't take that to mean he'd actually nuke, I took that to mean "STAY OUT OF IT OR ELSE"... but maybe he is nuts. In other words, rhetoric. Without actually directly confronting Russia, what would he tell his people?

I've taken his latest upping of the ante to mean "You're starting to interfere too much", which in all honestly also means things are going to hell in a hand basket for Russia. That's not a bad thing, as it is going to be a balancing act on how much support western countries give, and how Putin views it all.

I don't think it means nukes, I think it's just rhetoric to try and get people to back off or not supply even more.

I can't believe (maybe I'm naïve) that any armed forces would 1st strike nuke against any target, let alone one that isn't nuclear itself; that includes Russian military let by Putin. Surely they'd go "wait, this is nuts..." and ignore the bellend. Nukes have for a long time been mutual assured destruction, not first strike tantrum over a conventional war that no-one in the entire world is supporting.

It's simple. Putin is a proven liar. I wouldn't put anything past him. Not to mention, all signs point to him be a friggin basket case with his obsession over the fallen USSR. It's honestly safer to assume he will and be wrong than to convince yourself he won't and be wrong.

He's willing to throw the lives of his people away in the thousands over a lie. If he thinks he can nuke Ukraine and doesn't fear repercussions or thinks no one will respond, he'll do it.

*edit

FYI - EURCOM moved to DEFCON 2 today.

I should have made it more specific, i meant employ the use of nukes in Ukraine. I took it as a warning to the rest of Europe/USA that if they keep upping the ante with their contributions (weapons, and now planes?) or being seen to encourage citizens to go and fight for Ukraine (as per UK in the news yesterday) -- basically re-backing up "if you interefere in this action...", rather than he's thinking about blowing up Ukraine because things have hit a snag for him.

So from that I just couldn't imagine he'd nuke Ukraine, or target others in Europe instead? It's a dangerous game to play, hence why I thought he's just trying to re-iterate with more strength the threats over outside interference. But perhaps he really is bonkers rather than scheming. Things appear on the face of it to be going badly for Russia... and therefore it'll be really bad for Putin; cornered animals are the most unpredictable. Right now, Europe and the rest seem to have gone from "Good luck Ukraine" to "we can help in every way except with our own soldiers". But sending that hardware may be the thing that tips this - as I imagine if Russia *had* proper air superiority, they'd be taking out convoys coming into the country as soon as they crossed the border from Poland. The more stuff we're sending then the worse it's going to get for Russia. At that point, what does Putin do... his whole image is based on fear and control. If he's losing control of this situation then what move will he make? There were reports of some "thermobaric" weapon moving up to the border... sounds moderately horrific. Maybe he'll change tack, or maybe he'll view it as "a world without me is a world not worth living..." and go mental. Hope not, but he does have that kind of personality doesn't he.

As for rhetoric and whipping things up - there was some mental reporter/presenter in Russia who said something akin to "what's the point of a world without Russia in it" -- which is insane, as no-one is threatening to destroy Russia and the only one remotely capable of doing so at present is your own damned President. So how about reporting what's going on instead of hyping up your governments madness with complete and utter insanely misguided statements.

Things seem to be going badly, but neither side can paint the entire picture of how things are (well, certainly we can't rely on anything from Russia as they've only just admitted they've a few casualties, let alone the thousands that Ukraine is claiming Russia has so far lost). It does appear that they've either badly mistaken the resistance, or thought moving quickly with minimal troops would cause an Afghanistan like capitulation without a shot being fired. Either way, it's a good thing but at the same time worrying... as with all the external pressure being exerted, is he really likely to pack up and go home? Or go full in with the entire 200k of forces.

Or maybe their supply lines can't actually support a proper invasion so it's all going wrong. It'd be great if some actual knowledge of tactics and logistics and more, as well as what's actually happening. Instead, just have to trust the media and hope things continue to go well for Ukraine, or at least, as well as we can hope for (as "well" in a war is still relative to it being a bloomin war where people are dying).

[mr.WHO]

Maybe he is thinking post-war? Macron has effectively put stop at any further expansion of EU for one.

Definetly this one, if Ukraine prevail and get into EU, post-war reconstruction might be something that actually rebuild trust and cooperation between EU nations.
Like we had a load of West vs East EU or North vs South EU quarrels that have been put aside last week.

It would be an EU Mashall plan where everyone could benefit.

I'm not sure if Ukraine in NATO would be possible, but I can see "shortcut road" to EU to make sence.

[pjknibbs]

It's kind of ironic that Putin supposedly invaded to make a buffer zone between himself and NATO, and what it's done is to strengthen NATO's position. Heck, Finland and Sweden have been strictly neutral for *decades* yet are contemplating joining NATO now...

[mr.WHO]

I found a good news, that Ukraine is also mobilizing their reserves and many of them are actually demobilized veterans from previous conflict.
This means that, if Russia second wave is also a more professional force, it will be still a hell for Russia.

[Warenwolf]

Putin is no longer bothering pretending:

Got sent this by colleague - rocket strike (MLR) on urban area:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... M9-sZWtUtQ

[Vertigo 7]

Putin is no longer bothering pretending:

Got sent this by colleague - rocket strike (MLR) on urban area:

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... M9-sZWtUtQ

It's that kind of thing that's going to force NATO into the conflict.

[mr.WHO]

Today even Switzerland decided to join sanctions.

Seem like now they will be really hit in the pocket as Russian oligarchs have bilions in Swiss banks.

[Vertigo 7]

Look at that... Russia has managed to do what no one else can. Unite the world like never before. Sucks for Russia the world is united against them, but hey... progress!

[mr.WHO]

"Bild" report that according to secret service Putin is no longer in Moscow, but in the bunker in Ural.

I know this is mostly like just a gossip, but it gives me an odd feeling there is a ditch in the ground and some gasoline canisters already prepared next to the bunker.

[chew-ie]

Look at that... Russia has managed to do what no one else can. Unite the world like never before. Sucks for Russia the world is united against them, but hey... progress!

It really feels good to see that reaction - but it pains that it again took a lot of lives for something to change.

"Bild" report that according to secret service Putin is no longer in Moscow, but in the bunker in Ural.

I know this is mostly like just a gossip, but it gives me an odd feeling there is a ditch in the ground and some gasoline canisters already prepared next to the bunker.

I'm really curious what happens after this situation is resolved - but tbh scorched earth is not what I had in mind ... more down the line Putin adios etc...

[Warenwolf]

"Bild" report that according to secret service Putin is no longer in Moscow, but in the bunker in Ural.

Bild is just as reliable as Russia Today. Don't read that garbage, your IQ will drop.

Also Ria Novosti jumped the gun and posted article declaring Russian victory and how the new world order has finally started (with a multipolar world). Took it away but not quickly enough.

"Russia is restoring itself historically, gathering the Russian people together- Russians, Belorussians, Ukrainians"

Well, that settles what the plans were for this war.

[Tamina]

"Bild" report that according to secret service Putin is no longer in Moscow, but in the bunker in Ural.

I know this is mostly like just a gossip, but it gives me an odd feeling there is a ditch in the ground and some gasoline canisters already prepared next to the bunker.

Bild? The German Yellow Paper Bild? The article I found on Google was preceded with the sentence "where secret service thinks he could be at the moment".

[burger1]

Some defence company stocks are doing quite well.

Ruble looks bad.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

[Tamina]

Some defence company stocks are doing quite well.

Ruble looks bad.

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/RUB-USD?window=6M

Does it though? -15% is bad, currently from 0.012 to 0.010 but I think for a country that got into war, heavily sanctioned, excluded from SWIFT, this is merely an inconvenience compared to what one would expect to happen. And zooming out of this 5 day bubble shows Ruble had much tougher times in the past compared to this dent.

[Vertigo 7]

that's just the current short-term impact. imagine how it's going to get for them as time goes on. Russia is going to be seriously feeling the hurt, not to mention EU countries are looking to get their gas/oil elsewhere now.