Russia-Ukraine War

[Observe]

Everyone seems to be saying that Russia is having a much harder time than Putin thought they would. Interesting that people know what Putin is thinking. Anyway, it looks like Russia sent in a first wave to soften the opposition and now they are sending in fresh troops for a second wave to meet exhausted defenders.

[mr.WHO]

About those EU funded planes.

It's still to be confirmed, but rumors are the the deal is following:
EU countries donate their ex-soviet planes and EU buy used F-16 for those countries to replace them.
Makes sence - Ukraine gets planes they know and can ooperate and EU/NATO gets more NATO planes (especially that we now see the absolute IFF FUBAR when both sides use the very same equipment).


Ukrainian defence ministry annouced EU donating planes:

Bulgaria (Mig-29) - 16
Bulgaria (Su-25) - 14
Poland (Mig-29) - 28
Slovakya (Mig-29) - 12

As always, this is still need to be confirmed.

[jlehtone]

Listening to and voiding excuses wouldn't have done anything - as is, the pretext is "genocide" and "nazis in power". Both patently untrue, both thoroughly painted as being true in Russian state media for years.

With open ears we can eliminate his excuses by addressing the issues he is using as one. I did not suggest giving into his demands. Fact is that with open ears could have led to helping with the issues that Ukraine face. And if Putin still wanted to invade, he would have to do it without his excuses and with a lot less support than he manages to haver now. Listening and addressing issues does not mean that you agree. Also, anyone who feels listened to tends to be a lot less aggressive.

Even if Putin had felt listened to, would Russian state media paint any differently as it does now? Aren't those, who support him now, watching that paint dry? Same paint, same support? I don't say that listening has no effect, but it could just as well inspire different excuses.

[mr.WHO]

I'm sorry, but most people in the West absolutely do not understand Putin and Russia mentality.

"NATO/US provoked US" - That's 100% true, but for completely different reason.

Putin/Russia mentality is not a mentality of normal person, but a mentality of prison bully.

Bully is provoked by signs of weakness and detered by the signs of strength.


Putin thought that US, EU and Ukraine are now the weakest and that this would be a cakewalk - he was wrong.
Now he needs to be forced to sit the table, if it requires arm delivery and volunteers to Ukraine, so be it.

The whole problem is that West understanded this during the Cold War, but then declared the Cold War is over.
Putin was openly telling and giving signs that in his mind, the Cold Wars was never finished - we simply refused to take notice.

[Warenwolf]

Everyone seems to be saying that Russia is having a much harder time than Putin thought they would. Interesting that people know what Putin is thinking. Anyway, it looks like Russia sent in a first wave to soften the opposition and now they are sending in fresh troops for a second wave to meet exhausted defenders.

We actually do know that because images of tanks running out of fuel,news articles "we won" being released with dating of 26.02, shifting axis of attack and low deployment of the troops.
That guy obviously thought he troops would march into Kiev unopposed with only mopping up operations remaining.

So far Putin army has not impressed however you decide to look at it.

[Warenwolf]

I wouldn't call any of that a way out. Yes, Putin started digging his own grave first, yes Putin decided to attack, yes Putin is to blame. But that doesn't matter. You don't keep hitting a mad wild dog because of his bad behaviour. A way out means actually giving a positive motivation to return to status quo.

Of course - and what is your suggestion here?

[mr.WHO]

Whatever outcome this war ends one thing is sure...

...next Victory Day parade in Moscow will be really awkward.

[Tamina]

I wouldn't call any of that a way out. Yes, Putin started digging his own grave first, yes Putin decided to attack, yes Putin is to blame. But that doesn't matter. You don't keep hitting a mad wild dog because of his bad behaviour. A way out means actually giving a positive motivation to return to status quo.

Of course - and what is your suggestion here?

I believe Putin is not going to back up, as long as he will lose his face and will be seen as weak. I believe he will rather escalate the situation indefinitely until he achieved victory no matter what than his ego accepting defeat over the West. Suggestions? I don't know. Obviously I am in no position to be able to propose or suggest a detailed solution. I am just saying, that there is no use pressuring Russia into a corner and I hope the diplomats work intelligently towards a solution and not keep sitting blindly on their high moral horse.

Another form of a way out is positive motivation, examples that should not be seen as a suggestion for the current situation but as an example of what I want to say:
- As long as you have a cease fire and peace negotiations we will not impose anymore sanctions on you.
- When you are actively working towards peace (beginning with total retreat and a peace treaty) we will gradually lower the sanctions and return to status quo.

[mr.WHO]

Another form of a way out is positive motivation, examples that should not be seen as a suggestion for the current situation but as an example of what I want to say:
- As long as you have a cease fire and peace negotiations we will not impose anymore sanctions on you.
- When you are actively working towards peace (beginning with total retreat and a peace treaty) we will gradually lower the sanctions and return to status quo.

That would be a good idea, if not that for Putin, this would be basically declaring total defeat.

Looking at Russian troops movement, I think more likely is that they are just about to get a land corridor from Crimea and will try to negotiate with Ukraine to ceade it to Russia.
However, this might not be acceptable to Ukraine, as with resistance and guerrila, Russia might not even have a capability to hold that corridor for long.

Unfortunately, the most likely scenario is war of attrition and with world support it's not Ukraine who is an underdog.

[Chips]

Incentives for Putin? He started this, and the sanctions are because of it. The incentive is right there... sanctions only exist due to the war being waged. Perhaps some confirmation that they are lifted once a ceasefire is in place and all Russian units return, not just to Russia, but back to their respective bases... I'd go further than ceasefire, it'd have to be a signed treaty -- but that may be the sort of sticking point that scuppers it. Then again, so would pulling back units.

But it won't happen because it's Putin; a leader who has built his reputation and image on personality. That personality cannot possibly be seen to retreat. It won't happen because Ukraine won't accept anything less than Russia's complete removal from their country (and why should they cede anything anyway?).

It also won't happen as I imagine there's going to be too many oars sticking in with decisions - i.e. stop backing separatists, or give back Crimea... while Russia would never agree without Ukraine ceding Crimea permanently, and possibly the existing 2 areas that are "separated". I doubt Ukraine would ever accept that. But I really know nothing about their politics, so.

So war will rumble on until...?

If the Russian population is that supportive of Putin (and lets be honest, during the invasion of Iraq there may have been a significant vocal minority against, but it appeared a larger majority supported waging war on Iraq for *waves hands mystically* reasons... so why surprised at their present Russian opinion, given many Wester opinions may have shifted over the years with the benefit of hindsight, to think it was wrong at a later date).

Attempts to understand any legitimate concerns (as lets be honest, I don't find concerns over NATO expansion legitimate because they're not going to attack Russia... though I imagine its more to do with perceptions of what people may have, especially when it comes to relatives on t'other side of fence - i.e. parallels of East/West Germany?) could help resolve it peacefully, but sounds unpalatable for either side.

I have limited understanding, but I can only assume this is going to get far far worse before anything remotely nearing ceasefire occurs from how I view the above.

Only one thing I'm sure about is that Putin doesn't value anyone's life except his own. So don't expect any change unless there's a risk he's unseated.

[Vertigo 7]

And let's not forget, the sanctions against Russia serve 2 purposes. 1) they hamper Russia's ability to finance a sustained conflict. 2) the financial pressure placed on banks and business owners is largely placed back on the head of state (Putin) to end the conflict. and, arguably, 3) the middle class possibly revolting against Putin when their livelihoods are threatened.

All in all, it spells tremendous pressure against Putin that he can't just ignore over the long term.

[mr.WHO]

I read several analysis of Russian plans, assembled forces and performace, it seems that there is a conclusion that logistically, Russia is able to keep up with 10 day invasion and then forces will start to fall apart logistically.

We are on day 6, so I guess we'll find out in a few days if this is true or not.

That giant convoy coming into Kiyv directions starts to looks more and more like improvised rush chasing against the clock, than a coherent fighting force.
I mean if you have 30 miles long convoy clogging the road then something went terribly wrong.

If Ukraine still has some SRBM left, then this is sitting ducks.

[Warenwolf]

I read several analysis of Russian plans, assembled forces and performace, it seems that there is a conclusion that logistically, Russia is able to keep up with 10 day invasion and then forces will start to fall apart logistically.

We are on day 6, so I guess we'll find out in a few days if this is true or not.

That giant convoy coming into Kiyv directions starts to looks more and more like improvised rush chasing against the clock, than a coherent fighting force.
I mean if you have 30 miles long convoy clogging the road then something went terribly wrong.

If Ukraine still has some SRBM left, then this is sitting ducks.

This sounds as wishful thinking to be honest...
So how do you explain wars in Balkans (southern tip of eastern europe) lasted for years despite total embargo on war material? We are talking about nations with shoestring budgets.
. But I do suspect that Putin's armies will be starting to run low on rockets and missiles.

As to your speculation regarding dispersion of a column - have you ever served in your national forces (Navy does not count)? Don't take this wrong, I just wonder how to formulate myself.

[Falcrack]

I read several analysis of Russian plans, assembled forces and performace, it seems that there is a conclusion that logistically, Russia is able to keep up with 10 day invasion and then forces will start to fall apart logistically.

We are on day 6, so I guess we'll find out in a few days if this is true or not.

That giant convoy coming into Kiyv directions starts to looks more and more like improvised rush chasing against the clock, than a coherent fighting force.
I mean if you have 30 miles long convoy clogging the road then something went terribly wrong.

If Ukraine still has some SRBM left, then this is sitting ducks.

This sounds as wishful thinking to be honest...
So how do you explain wars in Balkans (southern tip of eastern europe) lasted for years despite total embargo on war material? We are talking about nations with shoestring budgets.
. But I do suspect that Putin's armies will be starting to run low on rockets and missiles.

As to your speculation regarding dispersion of a column - have you ever served in your national forces (Navy does not count)? Don't take this wrong, I just wonder how to formulate myself.

Wars in the Balkans are fundamentally different from this conflict. In this conflict, the longer it goes, the more quantities of Western military supplies will come pouring into Ukraine. It will be unlike any conflict we have seen in our lifetimes. And sooner or later, Russia will threaten war with the West unless they stop sending armaments to the Ukrainians.

[mr.WHO]

As to your speculation regarding dispersion of a column - have you ever served in your national forces (Navy does not count)? Don't take this wrong, I just wonder how to formulate myself.

No proffesional knowledge on my end.

However, I also heard an alternative explenation - road/terrain quality and weather.
Seem like Ukraine is still rather poor on quality roads, that's why Russian attack was always predicted for winter time, when the ground hard freeze.
If the ground is not freezed you're deep in the mud the moment you're off road.
This was like that in WW2, but aparently is still valid right now, so they can't disperse or go off-road easily.

I didn't checked the weather, but before, it was temperature above zero and it started to be below zero just one or two days ago.

[Warenwolf]

Wars in the Balkans are fundamentally different from this conflict. In this conflict, the longer it goes, the more quantities of Western military supplies will come pouring into Ukraine. It will be unlike any conflict we have seen in our lifetimes. And sooner or later, Russia will threaten war with the West unless they stop sending armaments to the Ukrainians.

We are talking about whether Russia has enough resources to fight a 10 days war or not. Not whether the conflict political landscape was the same (which it obviously is not). I could have used Iran-Iraq war as an better example too.

[burger1]

Some Russian people are reporting not being able to pay for services like spotify or netflix due to the banking restrictions.

Not really sure what steam will do. Steamdeck?

Russia will soon be requiring streaming services like netflix to host state tv channels and limit their non Russian content. So not being able to pay for netflix might not be an issue.

https://www.gizmochina.com/2022/01/04/r ... -channels/

has just announced that it will mandate foreign streaming services to also offer 20 local federal television channels to their userbase. This regulation was first introduced back in late 2020 and is set to take effect starting from March 2022. So now, out of the 20 Russian government run channels, Netflix and other streaming services will also broadcast the nation’s flagship “Channel One,” alongside the Orthodox church channel “Spas”, and more.

Furthermore, the government also seeks to have its streaming service providers abide by local regulations and laws. In other words, these companies are not allowed to showcase movies that promote “extremism” or even LGBTQIA+ related content. Roskomnadzor even added that the laws also apply to all of these streaming services that regularly bring in more than 100,000 users daily. So, we can expect the changes to impact the likes of Netflix and Amazon Prime Video among others.

[Vertigo 7]

Maybe, but likely only for Russia. Netflix, Amazon et. al routinely region lock many of their offerings.

[Warenwolf]

As to your speculation regarding dispersion of a column - have you ever served in your national forces (Navy does not count)? Don't take this wrong, I just wonder how to formulate myself.

No proffesional knowledge on my end.

However, I also heard an alternative explenation - road/terrain quality and weather.
Seem like Ukraine is still rather poor on quality roads, that's why Russian attack was always predicted for winter time, when the ground hard freeze.
If the ground is not freezed you're deep in the mud the moment you're off road.
This was like that in WW2, but aparently is still valid right now, so they can't disperse or go off-road easily.

I didn't checked the weather, but before, it was temperature above zero and it started to be below zero just one or two days ago.

Well, the gist of it is that they are changing tactics. If you check the news articles from beginning you will notice that there was attempt to capture and hold an airport north-west of the city.
Supplies arriving via that airport would have been enough if Ukrainians offering token or disorganized resistance so that the forces linking up with the airport could resupply "on the run" and continue towards the center of the city. Of course, there is very simplified overview - there is far more things you can use an airport for (and deny that's use to the enemy).
But as you know, Ukrainians put up stiff defense. Which means that Russian forces are forced to envelop the city, which means more troop and more need for supplies. I wager that there may be lot of infantry in that convoy too for clearing and holding a city of Kiev size (3 mil citizens, over 800 sq km). But since there are few roads in the area and Russians being limited to supplying their forces through the north, means that if you are not to lose too much time, you have to organize that large convoy.
Now, that means also that this convoy would slow down when it comes to the distribution of the forces and supplies (since there is no established base in the area as far as I know).

To the highly speculative part:
This will be perfect opportunity (depending on where distribution is finding place) to deliver artillery strikes to the area. SRBM are simply to expensive for such target although they would be able to take out number of vehicles, you would be delivering 300-600 kg of explosive on a limited area. Impressive when it strikes, but depending on NEP parameter of the TBM - let say a SCARAB - is better used on other type of targets.
On other hand, artillery or rocket (MLRS) strikes on the road ahead of the convoy would have delayed it, especially if area around the road is very muddy, due to cratering (of lets say 3-6 km) of the road and area around which need employment of engineering troops for repair which I suspect Russians did not bring to Ukraine. The convoy would also be idle for longer period of times, which would open other possibilities for Ukrainians and force the frontline troops on the Russian side to reduce their operations due to lack of ordinance and supplies.
That being said, I have not seen Ukrainians operating artillery batteries (or media has not focused on these) but according to wiki they should have plenty of mobile and field artillery of all types.

[Warenwolf]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/02/28</eur ... index.html

Sigh,,,Watch Putin exploit this to showcase how Nazi Ukrainian government is.